olivLaw · US equity research
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. WFG
Sawmills & Planting Mills, General · SIC 2421 · Vertical: Lumber and wood products (SIC 24xx)
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. is a Canadian company amalgamated in British Columbia, listed on the NYSE under the symbol WFG, which files its annual report on Form 40-F under the MJDS system. The report, dated February 11, 2026, covers fiscal 2025 and matters to US investors following a wood-processing issuer that applies IFRS.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG) stock was 69.74 USD (+5.92% on the day), with dividend yield 1.84%, beta 0.66, 52-week range 57.91–76.69 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 58.1
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 62.45 – 71.07
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 12.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 68.18 / 67.21
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.06 / -0.11
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +5.8% | −1.1% | +6.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −0.7% | −0.5% | −0.3 pp | — |
| 6 months | +11.2% | +4.4% | +6.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +14.1% | +12.3% | +1.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | +16.9% | +13.5% | +3.3 pp | +4.1% |
| 3 years | −6.3% | +76.4% | −82.7 pp | −11.9% |
| 5 years | −16.6% | +63.7% | −80.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +140.5% | −7.8% | −33.5% | −4.3% | −11.5% |
| Net income | 588.0 m | 2.9 bn | 2.0 bn | -167.0 m | -5.0 m | -937.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +401.2% | −33.0% | −108.5% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 8.56 | 27.03 | 20.86 | -2.01 | -0.07 | -12.08 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +215.8% | −22.8% | −109.6% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 13.4% | 28.0% | 20.4% | -2.6% | -0.1% | -17.2% |
| Free cash flow | 788.0 m | 2.9 bn | 1.7 bn | 48.0 m | 174.0 m | -315.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 202.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 300.0 m USD
- Net debt
- 98.0 m USD
- Equity
- 5.8 bn USD
- Total assets
- 7.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.05x
- Current ratio
- 2.13x
- ROE
- -14.6%
- ROA
- -11.4%
- FCF margin
- -5.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.4 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.7 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.1 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.8 bn ≈ | 5.9 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Operating income | 831.0 m | 3.9 bn | 2.6 bn | -284.0 m | 7.0 m | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 790.0 m | 3.9 bn | 2.6 bn | -228.0 m | 38.0 m | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 202.0 m | 951.0 m | 618.0 m | -61.0 m | 43.0 m | -233.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 588.0 m | 2.9 bn | 2.0 bn | -167.0 m | -5.0 m | -937.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 8.56 | 27.03 | 20.86 | -2.01 | -0.07 | -12.08 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 68.9 m | 109.0 m | 94.2 m | 83.2 m | 81.1 m | 79.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.26 | 1.28 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 461.0 m | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 900.0 m | 641.0 m | 202.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 277.0 m | 508.0 m | 350.0 m | 311.0 m | 294.0 m | 244.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 578.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 851.0 m | 844.0 m | 828.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.7 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 559.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.2 bn | 10.4 bn | 10.0 bn | 9.4 bn | 8.8 bn | 7.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 389.0 m | 848.0 m | 722.0 m | 620.0 m | 604.0 m | 584.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 300.0 m | 200.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 500.0 m | 499.0 m | 499.0 m | 199.0 m | 0 | 300.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 528.0 m | 1.2 bn | 792.0 m | 1.1 bn | 934.0 m | 651.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 2.5 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.6 bn | 7.2 bn | 7.0 bn | 5.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 968.0 m | 3.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 525.0 m | 661.0 m | 96.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 180.0 m | 635.0 m | 477.0 m | 477.0 m | 487.0 m | 411.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 788.0 m ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 48.0 m ≈ | 174.0 m ≈ | -315.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -166.0 m | -286.0 m | -459.0 m | -530.0 m | -318.0 m | -380.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -353.0 m | -2.2 bn | -2.1 bn | -268.0 m | -582.0 m | -167.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 41.0 m | 75.0 m | 99.0 m | 100.0 m | 101.0 m | 101.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 1.3 bn | 2.0 bn | 129.0 m | 140.0 m | 129.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 4 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
29% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16.82 – 22.62 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)16.82 – 22.62 (Mid 19.29)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -16.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 36% |
| Net margin · Quality | -17.2% | 10 (vs peers) | 21% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -17.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.1x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality4/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
WEST FRASER TIMBER CO. LTD. (WFG). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -11.5%; net margin -17.2%; ROE -14.6%.
The estimated value range is 16.82–22.62 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 19.29 USD, the price of 69.74 USD leaves a potential of -72.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -261.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 29.2% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.1x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -16.0%
- Net margin: -17.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -17.4%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Lumber and wood products (SIC 24xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TREXTrex Company, Inc. | 5.7 bn | 33.2 | 17.3% | 13.9% | +2.0% | +63% / −19% |
| FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | 5.6 bn | 44.6 | 5.5% | 2.9% | −3.2% | −8% / −31% |
| LPXLouisiana-Pacific Corporation | 5.5 bn | 80.8 | 3.9% | 2.7% | −7.9% | −4% / +29% |
| CVCOCavco Industries, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 28.8 | 16.6% | 7.7% | +11.4% | +14% / +140% |
| SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | 5.2 bn | 28.6 | 11.8% | 6.8% | +7.3% | +12% / +60% |
| UFPIUfp Industries, Inc. | 4.7 bn | 20.9 | 7.5% | 3.6% | −5.0% | −7% / −21% |
| KOPKoppers Holdings Inc. | 811.1 m | — | -19.0% | -4.6% | −10.2% | +45% / −5% |
| LEGHLegacy Housing Corporation | 755.8 m | 11.9 | 11.4% | 30.1% | −10.7% | +59% / +42% |
| JELDJELD-WEN Holding, Inc. | 94.6 m | — | -454.4% | -5.3% | −14.9% | −59% / −93% |
| NWGLCL Workshop Group Ltd | 7.3 m | — | -64.0% | -40.5% | −15.4% | −96% / −99% |
| WFGWest Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. | — | — | -14.6% | -17.2% | −11.5% | +17% / −6% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for WFG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026), 6-K (07 Jul 2026), 6-K (10 Jun 2026).
In brief
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. is a Canadian company amalgamated in British Columbia, listed on the NYSE under the symbol WFG, which files its annual report on Form 40-F under the MJDS system. The report, dated February 11, 2026, covers fiscal 2025 and matters to US investors following a wood-processing issuer that applies IFRS.
SWOT
Strengths
- The report describes internal control that management considers effective and that an independent auditor has tested, supporting confidence in the reported data 1.
- The company is listed on the NYSE and complies with most rules applicable to US issuers, which eases access for US investors 1.
- An Audit Committee of independent members and a designated financial expert support the oversight process 1.
Weaknesses
- Financial statements are prepared under IFRS, which can make direct comparison with US GAAP companies more difficult 1.
- Governance practices differ from those required of US companies, and investors may receive less protection in some situations 1.
- Key operating information sits in incorporated exhibits, requiring readers to consult several documents 1.
Opportunities
- If climate transparency becomes an important criterion for investors, existing assurance work could support a stronger position 1.
- If IFRS adoption grows in international markets, the company could benefit from reporting that is easier for foreign investors to follow 1.
- The compensation clawback policy could strengthen governance practices and investor confidence 1.
Risks
- Accounting standard differencesmedium
IFRS financial statements can make comparisons with US GAAP companies harder, and investors should account for this difference 1.
- Different investor protectionmedium
Governance practices permitted under Canadian law may give investors fewer safeguards than those in the US 1.
- Risks disclosed in MD&A and AIFhigh
The annual documents include a dedicated section on risks and uncertainties, which could affect results if they materialise 1.
- Climate compliance costslow
Limited assurance on climate matters signals higher reporting expectations, which could generate additional costs 1.
- Reliance on incorporated documentslow
Detailed information sits in exhibits, and an incomplete reading of them could lead to a partial understanding of the company's position 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Internal control was assessed as effective and verified by an independent auditor, providing a solid basis for confidence in the reported data 1.
- The NYSE listing and compliance with most US rules could ease access to information for US investors 1.
- If the governance and compensation recovery policies work as described, they could support management discipline 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Financial results and guidance in the next quarterly releasesQ1 2027
- Updates to the risk section of the next Annual Information Form2027
- Developments in climate reporting and related assurancenext 10-K
- Any changes to the clawback policy or the Audit Committee2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 11 Feb 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (29 Oct 2026), 6-K (08 Oct 2026), 6-K (16 Sept 2026), 6-K (29 Jul 2026), 6-K (07 Jul 2026), 6-K (10 Jun 2026).
The business
According to the 40-F, West Fraser is a company amalgamated under the laws of British Columbia, Canada, whose common shares have traded on the NYSE under the symbol WFG since February 2021. The principal documents filed include the 2025 Annual Information Form, audited consolidated financial statements and the 2025 Annual MD&A. The company reports in US dollars and prepares its financial statements under IFRS, not US GAAP, so the data is not directly comparable with US companies 1.
Management assessed internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2025 and concluded it was effective under COSO criteria, and PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP audited that assessment 1. The Audit Committee is made up of independent members, and its chair was designated an audit committee financial expert.
The report states that West Fraser has no off-balance sheet arrangements that are reasonably likely to be material, and contractual obligations are detailed in the annual MD&A. The company has adopted a Code of Conduct applying to all directors, officers and employees, and no waivers were granted in fiscal 2025 1.
Segments
Annual documents as the basis of analysis
The report's structure shows that detailed operating information, including segment activity, sits in the Annual Information Form and the MD&A, both incorporated by reference into the 40-F 1. A full segment description requires reading these exhibits.
Governance and compliance
Beyond financial data, the report includes governance details, including practices that differ from those of US companies listed on the NYSE, such as a 25% quorum threshold for shareholder meetings 1.
Market context
The sources reviewed do not provide data on market size or the company's market share. For context on the wood-processing industry, the analysis needs to be supplemented with the Annual Information Form and the MD&A, which the 40-F references 1.
Trends
- Move to IFRS reportingmixed
The company prepares its financial statements under IFRS, which can make comparisons with US GAAP reporting harder for US investors, as the report explicitly notes 1.
- Effective internal controltailwind
Management concluded that internal control over financial reporting was effective at the end of 2025, with no material change during the year 1.
- Climate reporting requirementsmixed
The auditor performed limited assurance work on climate matters, signalling heightened attention to climate reporting but also added compliance cost 1.
- Executive compensation recoverytailwind
The company adopted a clawback policy, which could influence compensation practices in future years if corrections to financial statements arise 1.
Competitive position
The reviewed report does not name direct competitors. Comparison with other wood producers must be made from other sources, as the documents available cover only governance, audit and reporting structure 1.
If investors compare the company with other wood-processing issuers, the difference between IFRS and US GAAP can affect direct financial comparisons 1.
- Competitors not named in the source
The source does not name competitors; identifying them requires other documents.
- Other North American lumber producers
The source provides no data on these companies, so they cannot be compared using this report.
- Companies reporting under US GAAP
Comparison with them is limited by the accounting standard difference noted in the report.
- NYSE-listed issuers in the same sector
The source does not provide a list of such companies.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)07 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)29 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)17 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 40-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. · 11 Feb 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.