olivLaw · US equity research
Expand Energy Corporation EXE
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)
Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, operating in Haynesville, Pennsylvania and Southwest Appalachia. In the second quarter of 2026 net production reached about 7.48 Bcfe/d, 92% natural gas, and full-year guidance of 7.4–7.6 Bcfe/d was reaffirmed. The pending Twin Eagle acquisition, at about 1.25 billion USD, could extend the company's reach into demand markets and gas marketing.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) stock was 87.31 USD (−2.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 20.2 bn USD, P/E 7.6 on diluted EPS of 11.54 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.38, 52-week range 84.09–122.89 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 3.3 bn USD (+10.8% YoY), net income of 519.0 m USD (−5.1% YoY), diluted EPS 2.24 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 87.26 – 95.35
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.01 · band width 8.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 91.54 / 96.60
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.19 / 0.27
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.0% | −1.1% | +2.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.9% | −0.5% | −3.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.9% | +4.4% | −14.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −20.9% | +12.3% | −33.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −20.7% | +13.5% | −34.2 pp | +36.4% |
| 3 years | −2.3% | +76.4% | −78.7 pp | +21.5% |
| 5 years | +32.6% | +63.7% | −31.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn |
| Operating income | -386.0 m | -268.0 m | 1.3 bn | 725.0 m | 745.0 m | 1.5 bn | 661.0 m | 640.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 647.0 m | 711.0 m | 769.0 m | 741.0 m | 759.0 m | 711.0 m | 722.0 m | 750.0 m |
| Interest expense | 64.0 m | 59.0 m | 60.0 m | 57.0 m | 59.0 m | 59.0 m | 43.0 m | 44.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -421.0 m | -319.0 m | 1.2 bn | 686.0 m | 687.0 m | 1.5 bn | 672.0 m | 608.0 m |
| Income tax | -22.0 m | -70.0 m | 260.0 m | 139.0 m | 134.0 m | 330.0 m | 150.0 m | 89.0 m |
| Net income | -399.0 m | -249.0 m | 968.0 m | 547.0 m | 553.0 m | 1.2 bn | 522.0 m | 519.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.72 ≈ | -1.06 | 4.02 | 2.28 | 2.30 ≈ | 4.81 | 2.19 | 2.24 |
| Operating cash flow | 382.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 956.0 m | 2.4 bn | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 536.0 m | 563.0 m | 657.0 m ≈ | 775.0 m ≈ | 741.0 m | 707.0 m | 753.0 m ≈ | 838.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 134.0 m | 142.0 m | 137.0 m ≈ | 349.0 m ≈ | 137.0 m | 141.0 m | 138.0 m ≈ | 132.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 99.0 m ≈ | 1.0 m ≈ | 0 | 66.0 m | 514.0 m ≈ | 320.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 43 percentile of its own 14-quarter history (min 1.6, median 8.0, max 302.4; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.0 bn | 10.0 bn | 8.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 11.7 bn | 8.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 12.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +27.5% | −0.1% | −14.9% | −38.6% | unavailable | −25.7% | −51.4% | +186.3% |
| Net income | -505.0 m | 226.0 m | -308.0 m | -9.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 2.4 bn | -714.0 m | 1.8 bn |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −236.3% | unavailable | unavailable | −51.0% | −129.5% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -0.70 | 29.26 | -49.97 | -998.26 | 33.36 | 16.92 | -4.55 | 7.57 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −270.8% | unavailable | unavailable | −49.3% | −126.9% | unavailable |
| net % | -5.0% | 2.3% | -3.6% | -185.8% | 42.0% | 27.7% | -16.9% | 15.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | 22.0 m | 2.3 bn | 551.0 m | 8.0 m | 1.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 616.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 5.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 4.4 bn USD
- Equity
- 18.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 28.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.27x
- Current ratio
- 1.01x
- ROE
- 10.1%
- ROA
- 6.5%
- FCF margin
- 15.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 8.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 11.7 bn | 8.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 12.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -31.0 m | -8.7 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.1 bn | -803.0 m | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 2.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.2 bn ≈ | -7.6 bn ≈ | 5.5 bn ≈ | 4.7 bn ≈ | 926.0 m ≈ | 5.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 651.0 m | 331.0 m | 160.0 m | 104.0 m | 123.0 m | 235.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -639.0 m | -9.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.1 bn | -841.0 m | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -331.0 m | -19.0 m | -1.3 bn | 698.0 m | -127.0 m | 463.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -308.0 m | -9.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 2.4 bn | -714.0 m | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -49.97 | -998.26 | 33.36 | 16.92 | -4.55 | 7.57 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 8.3 m | 9.8 m | 146.0 m | 143.0 m | 157.0 m | 240.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 6.0 m | 279.0 m | 130.0 m | 1.1 bn | 317.0 m | 616.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 990.0 m | 746.0 m | 1.4 bn | 593.0 m | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | — | — | — | — | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Current assets | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 14.8 bn | 5.2 bn | 11.2 bn | 10.1 bn | 24.3 bn | 24.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Oct 2026verified |
| Total assets | 16.2 bn | 6.6 bn | 15.5 bn | 14.4 bn | 27.9 bn | 28.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 498.0 m | 346.0 m | 603.0 m | 425.0 m | 777.0 m | 753.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 385.0 m | 1.9 bn | — | 0 | 389.0 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 9.1 bn | 0 | 3.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 2.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 11.8 bn | 11.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 4.4 bn | -5.3 bn | 9.1 bn | 10.7 bn † | 17.6 bn † | 18.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.6 bn | 1.2 bn | 4.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | — | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | — | 22.0 m ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 551.0 m ≈ | 8.0 m ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.5 bn | -992.0 m | -3.4 bn | 473.0 m | -1.9 bn | -2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 859.0 m | 101.0 m | -1.4 bn | -1.9 bn | -419.0 m | -1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | 1.2 bn | 487.0 m | 388.0 m | 765.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 1.1 bn | 355.0 m | 0 | 100.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 66 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 20.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation93
- Returns100
- Quality67
- Balance sheet62
- Growth4
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 114.68 – 241.22 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)141.82 – 241.22 (Mid 179.08)WACC 8.5% · starting FCFF 2.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -23.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA139.66 – 145.20 (Mid 144.98)3 companies used · median multiple 5.8x · quartiles 5.6x – 5.8xEOG, EQT, OVV
- Peers: P/E114.68 – 144.96 (Mid 132.10)7 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 9.9x – 12.6xAPA, DVN, EOG, EQT, OVV, OXY, PR
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 66/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 12.2% | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 19.8% | 43 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 94.2% | 92 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 1.1% | 9 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -39.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 17.4x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 9 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.6x | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 3.8x | 80 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 21.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet62/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth4/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality67/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation93/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
EXPAND ENERGY CORPORATION (EXE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 186.3%; net margin 19.8%; ROE 14.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.7x.
The estimated value range is 139.66–145.20 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 144.98 USD, the price of 87.31 USD leaves a potential of 66.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 39.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 66/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 94.2%
- Interest coverage: 17.4x
- P/E (TTM): 7.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 3.8x
- FCF yield: 12.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.2%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 21.1%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -39.0%
- Current ratio: 0.9x
Versus the vertical median
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.7 bn and 172.2 bn (within 8× of the company's); 74 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EOGEog Resources, Inc. | 77.1 bn | 11.4 | 22.5% | 25.4% | −4.5% | +36% / +19% |
| OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | 57.3 bn | 8.6 | 18.9% | 33.7% | −1.9% | +37% / −3% |
| FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | 51.1 bn | 25.0 | 5.3% | 11.0% | +35.8% | +20% / +18% |
| DVNDevon Energy Corp | 48.5 bn | 10.5 | 11.5% | 16.7% | +7.8% | +19% / −2% |
| EQTEqt Corporation | 32.9 bn | 12.5 | 10.9% | 28.4% | +63.9% | −14% / +31% |
| EXEExpand Energy Corporation | 20.2 bn | 7.6 | 14.6% | 19.8% | +186.3% | −21% / −2% |
| PRPermian Resources Corporation | 18.8 bn | 14.9 | 11.5% | 21.5% | +1.3% | +55% / +71% |
| OVVOvintiv Inc. | 16.8 bn | 12.7 | 12.1% | 12.8% | −2.7% | +53% / +41% |
| APAApa Corporation | 15.6 bn | 9.4 | 25.9% | — | unavailable | +78% / +24% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for EXE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 51.47 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 91.14 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 137.50 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 46.56 Total return -47% · Per year -19% | 93.10 Total return 7% · Per year 2% | 154.70 Total return 77% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 42.13 Total return -52% · Per year -14% | 95.11 Total return 9% · Per year 2% | 174.05 Total return 99% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 23.28
- Net margin± 16.29
- Annual revenue growth± 13.83
- Annual dilution± 1.37
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).
In brief
Expand Energy is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. by net daily production, operating in Haynesville, Pennsylvania and Southwest Appalachia 1. In the second quarter of 2026 net production reached about 7.48 Bcfe/d, 92% natural gas, and full-year guidance of 7.4–7.6 Bcfe/d was reaffirmed 3. The pending Twin Eagle acquisition, at about 1.25 billion USD, could extend the company's reach into demand markets and gas marketing 23.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company is the largest independent natural gas producer in the U.S. with a large asset base next to high-demand markets 1.
- The balance sheet has strengthened with lower debt, investment grade ratings from all major agencies and a leverage ratio described as peer-leading 23.
- Hedges protect a significant share of projected gas revenue, which could stabilise cash flow 2.
Weaknesses
- The company depends heavily on natural gas prices, and prolonged low prices could cause asset write-downs and reduce investment capacity 1.
- Recent changes in the chief executive and chief financial officer roles could create uncertainty in executing strategy 2.
- Execution and integration risks in acquisitions, including Twin Eagle, could affect results if expected benefits do not materialise 13.
Opportunities
- The Twin Eagle acquisition could expand access to consumer markets and gas marketing and logistics services 23.
- Long-term LNG contracts such as the one with Delfin could link production to international markets if projects proceed 2.
- Rising industrial and data center demand could support volumes and prices over the medium term 2.
Threats
- Volatile prices and geopolitical episodes could reduce revenue and reserve values if the market weakens 12.
- Public opposition and investor pressure on the fossil fuel industry could delay permits and limit access to capital 1.
- Competitors with greater financial resources could gain advantages in acquisitions, services and talent 1.
Risks
- Gas price volatilityhigh
Low prices sustained over a long period could reduce cash flow, borrowing capacity and reserve value 1.
- Asset impairmentmedium
If prices fall or drilling results disappoint, the company could record write-downs of its oil and gas properties 1.
- Integration and acquisitionsmedium
The Twin Eagle acquisition and other transactions could deliver smaller benefits than expected or unforeseen costs 13.
- Access to capital and public perceptionmedium
Investor restrictions and opposition from advocacy groups could limit financing and operating permits 1.
- Interim leadershiplow
The interim chief executive role and recent management changes could influence near-term strategic decisions 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If gas demand grows with new LNG capacity and industrial use, the company could benefit from its large asset base and leading production position 12.
- A stronger balance sheet and the share repurchase program could support shareholder value if financial discipline holds 3.
- The Twin Eagle acquisition could turn the company into an integrated operator with broader access to consumer markets and marketing services 3.
What would break the thesis
- If gas prices stay weak for a long period, revenue and cash flow could fall and reserve values could shrink 12.
- The Twin Eagle acquisition carries integration and execution risk, and expected benefits could be delayed or smaller than estimated 23.
- Pressure from investors and regulators could limit access to capital and raise compliance costs 1.
What to watch
- Closing of the Twin Eagle acquisition and its effect on debtQ3 2026
- Pace of share repurchases and the level of net debtQ3 2026
- Delivery of 7.4–7.6 Bcfe/d production guidance and the capital budget2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (27 Oct 2026).
The business
Expand Energy, formerly Chesapeake Energy, was formed through the Southwestern merger completed on October 1, 2024, and operates in Louisiana, Texas, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio 1. At year-end 2025 it held a working interest in about 6,600 wells, nearly all productive, and total proved reserves of 25,880 Bcfe 1. Net production in 2025 was 2,622 Bcfe, compared with 1,375 Bcfe in 2024, reflecting a full year of Southwestern assets 1.
The strategy described in the annual report focuses on responsible development of large resource plays and allocating capital to projects with the highest cash return, with emphasis on operating efficiency and financial discipline 1. The company also targets net zero Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 1. In February 2026 the board named its chairman interim President and Chief Executive Officer 12.
Market context
The U.S. natural gas market is described as tightening through 2027, driven by seasonal demand and structural growth from LNG, power generation and industry 1. In the first half of 2026 mild weather and strong output weighed on prices, while new LNG capacity, industrial onshoring and data centers could tighten the market again 2.
The company sells gas under index and daily spot contracts and sells oil at a differential to NYMEX WTI 1. Hedging protects part of future revenue but limits gains if prices rise 12.
Trends
- Rising LNG demandtailwind
New U.S. LNG export capacity could lift gas demand and support prices over the medium term, particularly alongside the long-term Delfin contract 2.
- Energy price volatilitymixed
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and elsewhere keep prices volatile, which could hurt revenue and reserve values if prices stay low 12.
- Data center and industrial demandtailwind
Expansion of AI-powered data centers and industrial onshoring could raise gas demand in coming years if growth continues 2.
- Regulatory and public pressureheadwind
Opposition from advocacy groups and investor divestment from fossil fuels could complicate permits and access to capital if the trend intensifies 1.
Competitive position
Expand Energy competes in every part of its business with multinational oil companies, independent producers and individual operators, some with greater financial resources 1. The company argues that the Southwestern merger and the Twin Eagle acquisition could make it North America's leading integrated natural gas company 3.
- Multinational oil companies
Compete for reserves, services and marketing with greater financial resources, according to the annual report.
- Independent gas and oil producers
Compete for leases, skilled staff and equipment, especially when prices are high.
- Individual producers and operators
Compete for assets and access to oilfield services, as described in the risk factors.
- Alternative energy sources
Indirect competition from wind, solar and electric power that could reduce demand for natural gas.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Life on the move in a changing Chesapeake BayPhys.org · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Oyster stocks have plunged in the Chesapeake. This resident wants to bring them backNPR News · 31 Oct 2026 · EN
- Rising seas could weaken Chesapeake Bay's natural storm surge bufferPhys.org · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chesapeake Bay Restoration Obstructed by Federal Policy Shift, Tribal WithdrawalInside Climate News · 02 Oct 2026 · EN
- Chesapeake Bay underwater grasses increase 7%, buoyed by gains in salty watersPhys.org · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Expand Energy (EXE) is Building a Natural Gas Powerhouse. But is the Growth Story at Risk?Yahoo Finance — News · 26 Aug 2026 · EN
- Expand Energy Stock Outlook: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?Yahoo Finance — News · 25 Aug 2026 · EN
- Russia to expand energy technologies export to BRICS countriesTASS (RU, EN) · 25 Jun 2026 · RO
- Kazakhstan Lands $12 Billion in EU Deals to Expand Energy and Trade TiesOil Price · 25 Jun 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report27 Oct 2026
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report06 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report17 Sept 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Sept 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events
- Current report16 Sept 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report30 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Expand Energy Corporation · 18 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Expand Energy Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Expand Energy Corporation · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.