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olivLaw · US equity research

Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · SIC 1311 · Vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

57.33USD−5.13% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is a major U.S. oil and gas producer with assets in the Permian, Rockies and Gulf of America. In 2025 it sold OxyChem for $9.7 billion, and principal debt was reduced to about $15 billion, against a target of $14.3 billion. Quarterly results depend strongly on oil prices, which rose in the second quarter of 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) stock was 57.33 USD (−5.13% on the day), with market capitalisation 57.3 bn USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 6.64 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.74%, beta 0.41, 52-week range 38.92–66.24 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 8.1 bn USD (+53.4% YoY), net income of 3.0 bn USD (+540.2% YoY), diluted EPS 2.75 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
57.3 bn USD
shares as of 31 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6
Diluted EPS TTM 6.64 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
11.59%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.74%
DPS 12m 1.00
Beta (2y)
0.41
Volatility (1y) 35%
52-week range
38.9266.24

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
35.9
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
58.64 – 65.14
below the lower band · %B -0.20 · band width 10.5%
SMA 50 / 200
60.15 / 56.32
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.32 / 0.88
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−1.7%−1.1%−0.6 pp—
3 months+6.5%−0.5%+7.0 pp—
6 months+4.0%+4.4%−0.4 pp—
Year to date+39.4%+12.3%+27.1 pp—
1 year+43.0%+13.5%+29.5 pp+28.1%
3 years−9.0%+76.4%−85.4 pp+21.5%
5 years+71.5%+63.7%+7.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.6%
30 Mar 2026 → 01 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−52.5%
07 Nov 2022 → 08 Apr 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+11.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
8.1 bn USD
+53.4% YoY
Net income
3.0 bn USD
+540.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
2.75
+957.7% YoY
net / operating
37.1% / unavailable

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue7.2 bn2.1 bn5.7 bn5.3 bn6.6 bn1.8 bn5.2 bn8.1 bn
Cost of revenue889.0 m494.0 m801.0 m847.0 m812.0 m———
SG&A268.0 m174.0 m241.0 m257.0 m277.0 m158.0 m245.0 m262.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation1.9 bn1.6 bn1.8 bn1.8 bn2.1 bn1.6 bn1.8 bn1.8 bn
Interest expense312.0 m321.0 m310.0 m271.0 m270.0 m215.0 m432.0 m108.0 m
Pre-tax income1.6 bn-215.0 m1.2 bn560.0 m1.2 bn-108.0 m390.0 m3.9 bn
Income tax454.0 m-65.0 m347.0 m222.0 m324.0 m40.0 m154.0 m915.0 m
Net income1.1 bn-120.0 m945.0 m468.0 m842.0 m114.0 m3.4 bn3.0 bn
Diluted EPS0.98-0.12 ≈0.770.260.650.11 ≈3.132.75
Operating cash flow3.7 bn ≈3.4 bn2.1 bn3.0 bn ≈2.8 bn ≈2.6 bn1.3 bn4.3 bn ≈
Capex1.7 bn ≈1.0 bn1.7 bn1.7 bn ≈2.3 bn ≈753.0 m1.6 bn1.6 bn ≈
Dividends paid371.0 m ≈377.0 m380.0 m398.0 m ≈408.0 m ≈408.0 m409.0 m430.0 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈18.0 m00 ≈0 ≈056.0 m61.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 21 percentile of its own 29-quarter history (min 5.0, median 15.6, max 446.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022⚠ 202320242025
Revenue17.8 bn20.9 bn17.8 bn26.0 bn36.6 bn23.2 bn22.0 bn21.6 bn
Revenue YoY+42.5%+17.3%−14.8%+45.7%+41.1%—−4.9%−1.9%
Net income4.1 bn-985.0 m-14.8 bn2.3 bn13.3 bn4.7 bn3.1 bn2.4 bn
Net income YoY+215.1%−123.8%unavailableunavailable+473.0%—−34.5%−23.0%
Diluted EPS5.39-1.22-17.061.5812.403.902.441.61
Diluted EPS YoY+217.1%−122.6%unavailableunavailable+684.8%—−37.4%−34.0%
net %23.2%-4.7%-83.3%8.9%36.3%20.3%14.0%11.0%
Free cash flow2.7 bn1.0 bn1.4 bn7.6 bn12.3 bn6.6 bn5.2 bn4.1 bn

The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
2.0 bn USD
Financial debt
22.4 bn USD
Net debt
20.4 bn USD
Equity
36.6 bn USD
Total assets
84.2 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.61x
Current ratio
0.94x
ROE
6.7%
ROA
2.8%
FCF margin
19.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
23.2 bn
2024
22.0 bn
2025
21.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2025verified

Gross profit
2023
20.0 bn ≈
2024
18.9 bn ≈
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

SG&A
2023
987.0 m
2024
960.0 m
2025
986.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
6.4 bn
2024
7.0 bn
2025
7.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Interest expense
2023
957.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
4.7 bn
2024
4.0 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
4.7 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.90
2024
2.44
2025
1.61

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
960.9 m
2024
967.1 m
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.72
2024
0.88
2025
0.96

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.4 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.2 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
2.0 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
8.4 bn
2024
9.1 bn
2025
8.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
63.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
—
2024
668.0 m
2025
668.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
74.0 bn
2024
85.4 bn
2025
84.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
3.6 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
18.5 bn
2024
25.0 bn
2025
20.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 05 May 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
9.1 bn
2024
9.5 bn
2025
9.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
30.3 bn
2024
34.5 bn
2025
36.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
12.3 bn
2024
11.4 bn
2025
10.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
5.7 bn
2024
6.3 bn
2025
6.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
6.6 bn ≈
2024
5.2 bn ≈
2025
4.1 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-7.0 bn
2024
-14.6 bn
2025
-5.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-4.9 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
-4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.8 bn
2024
27.0 m
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-16.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
Net income growth (YoY)
-23.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-43.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-34.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-49.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-20.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
86.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT margin
unavailable
input data missing
Net margin
33.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
22.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
18.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (EPS)
15.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
34.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
9.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
input data missing

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
11.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
6.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
4.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
65.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
input data missing

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
56 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
251 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
457 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-150 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
57.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
66.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
7.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
11.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
3.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
12.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

57.33 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 57.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
57.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
18.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
33.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 31 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 05 Aug 2026
verified 2645derived 230

Score by group

  • Valuation93
  • Balance sheet51
  • Quality75
  • Growth0
  • Returns67

Estimated value range

Low
61.18
USD per share
Mid
73.88
USD per share
High
90.52
USD per share
Price: 57.33 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 28.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 22.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 56.35 – 97.58 USD.

Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)56.35 – 97.58 (Mid 71.71)
    WACC 8.4% · starting FCFF 5.5 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -12.8%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
  • Peers: P/E66.02 – 83.45 (Mid 76.04)
    7 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 9.9x – 12.6x
    APA, DVN, EOG, EQT, EXE, OVV, PR
  • Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate12.62 – 16.97 (Mid 14.47)
    a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality33.7%100 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality65.6%51 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-16.2%0 (on a fixed band)13%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-49.4%0 (on a fixed band)13%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.4x51 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation8.6x88 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation8.4%100 (on a fixed band)13%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.1%44 (on a fixed band)10%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns34.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial51/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality75/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns67/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION (OXY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 21.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.9%; net margin 33.7%; ROE 18.9%.

The estimated value range is 61.18–90.52 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 73.88 USD, the price of 57.33 USD leaves a potential of 28.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 22.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: balance. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 33.7%
  • P/E (TTM): 8.6x
  • FCF yield: 8.4%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 34.5%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -16.2%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -49.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, EV/EBITDA.

Versus the vertical median

Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas (SIC 1311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 7.8 bn and 499.8 bn (within 8× of the company's); 74 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
8.6x
vertical median 11.9x
below median (−27.8%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 5.6x
P/S
2.6x
vertical median 2.7x
at median
P/B
1.4x
vertical median 1.4x
at median
ROE
18.9%
vertical median 11.8%
above median (+59.6%)
Net margin
33.7%
vertical median 19.8%
above median (+70.5%)
EBIT margin
—
vertical median 29.3%
Revenue YoY
-1.9%
vertical median 7.8%
below median (−124.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.8x
Dividend yield
1.7%
vertical median 2.2%
below median (−19.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
EOGEog Resources, Inc.77.1 bn11.422.5%25.4%−4.5%+36% / +19%
OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation57.3 bn8.618.9%33.7%−1.9%+43% / −9%
FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc.51.1 bn25.05.3%11.0%+35.8%+20% / +18%
DVNDevon Energy Corp48.5 bn10.511.5%16.7%+7.8%+19% / −2%
EQTEqt Corporation32.9 bn12.510.9%28.4%+63.9%−14% / +31%
EXEExpand Energy Corporation20.2 bn7.614.6%19.8%+186.3%−28% / +9%
PRPermian Resources Corporation18.8 bn14.911.5%21.5%+1.3%+55% / +71%
OVVOvintiv Inc.16.8 bn12.712.1%12.8%−2.7%+53% / +41%
APAApa Corporation15.6 bn9.425.9%—unavailable+78% / +24%

1- and 3-year price returns: for OXY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
33.74
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
59.96
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
90.72
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
26.79
Total return -50% · Per year -20%
54.11
Total return -0% · Per year -0%
90.72
Total return 65% · Per year 18%
5 years
21.27
Total return -57% · Per year -16%
48.83
Total return -7% · Per year -1%
90.72
Total return 69% · Per year 11%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 13.53
  • Net margin± 9.47
  • Annual revenue growth± 8.55
  • Annual dilution± 0.80

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is a major U.S. oil and gas producer with assets in the Permian, Rockies and Gulf of America. In 2025 it sold OxyChem for $9.7 billion 1, and principal debt was reduced to about $15 billion 1, against a target of $14.3 billion 1. Quarterly results depend strongly on oil prices, which rose in the second quarter of 2026 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Important position among U.S. liquids producers, with scale and technical expertise in established basins.
  • Asset portfolio with high-margin inventory and the ability to bring additional production to market quickly.
  • Clear debt reduction strategy supported by the OxyChem sale.

Weaknesses

  • Results depend heavily on oil prices, and the company had no commodity hedges in place at the end of 2025 1.
  • Debt remains significant, and credit ratings could influence the cost of financing.
  • Realized NGL prices have stayed below WTI, which limits margins.

Opportunities

  • If prices stay high, cash flow could accelerate debt reduction and share repurchases 1.
  • CO2 sequestration projects could open new revenue if supported by incentives.
  • Permian and Gulf of America assets could support production growth at controlled costs.

Threats

  • A fall in oil prices could reduce cash flow and could lead to asset impairments 1.
  • Tax exposure tied to the Tronox settlement deduction involves a large potential repayment 1.
  • Geopolitical tensions and infrastructure limits could interrupt production and deliveries 23.

Risks

  • Commodity price exposurehigh

    Results are closely correlated with oil, NGL and natural gas prices, which are volatile 1.

  • Debt and access to capitalmedium

    The level of debt could limit financial flexibility, and a credit rating downgrade could raise costs 1.

  • Tronox tax matterhigh

    If the Tax Court disallows the deduction, the company could be required to repay the refund received by Anadarko, plus interest 1.

  • Litigation and environmental liabilitiesmedium

    The company remains exposed to litigation and legacy environmental liabilities tied to divested assets through indemnification obligations 1.

  • Operational disruptionsmedium

    Pipeline constraints and temporary production curtailments in the Gulf of America could affect quarterly results 3.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If oil prices stay high and production holds within guidance, cash flow could support debt reduction and returns to shareholders 12.
  • The OxyChem sale brought liquidity and reduced debt, which could give more flexibility for investment or repurchases 1.
  • Low-cost Permian assets and carbon capture projects could support medium-term growth 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If oil prices fall, results and cash flow could be hit quickly, and the company had no active hedges 1.
  • The Tronox tax risk could lead to significant payments not covered by insurance 1.
  • Production interruptions and reliance on third-party infrastructure could limit deliveries and quarterly margins 3.

What to watch

  • Full restoration of Gulf of America productionQ4 2026
  • Tax Court decision in the Tronox matter2027
  • Start of STRATOS operations and first CO2 sequestration2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Occidental Petroleum is mainly engaged in exploring, developing and producing oil, natural gas liquids (NGL) and natural gas, and is among the largest U.S. producers of liquids 1. The oil and gas segment received $5.6 billion of investment in fiscal 2025 in high-return assets focused on the Permian Basin, DJ Basin, Gulf of America and Oman 1. The company also runs a midstream and marketing segment including the STRATOS carbon capture project 1. The sale of the OxyChem chemical business, completed on January 2, 2026, shifted the company toward greater exposure to hydrocarbon prices 1.

Segments

Oil and gas

The oil and gas segment focuses on low-cost, high-return assets in the Permian Basin, Rockies, Gulf of America and international operations 1. The company aims to maintain production and generate free cash flow from short and mid-cycle projects 1. The average WTI price was $64.81 per barrel in fiscal 2025 1 and $92.79 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026 2.

Midstream and marketing

The midstream and marketing segment includes investment related to the STRATOS project, whose operations were expected to begin in 2026 1. This segment contributes less than production but supports infrastructure access and carbon capture 1.

Trends

  • Oil price volatilitymixed

    Oil prices have been volatile and could remain so, directly affecting revenue and cash flow 12.

  • Geopolitical tensionsmixed

    Conflicts in the Middle East supported prices through risk premiums but could also disrupt maritime transport and energy infrastructure 2.

  • Tax and environmental policyheadwind

    Legislative changes to taxes and credits for low-carbon projects could alter the tax burden and compliance costs 1.

  • Trade tariffsheadwind

    Tariffs on imports could raise supplier costs and also affect demand and prices for the company's products 1.

Competitive position

Occidental competes with other large independent U.S. producers and international companies for reserves, capital and skilled staff. Competitive pressure shows in per-barrel costs and in the ability to develop new assets at competitive prices 1.

  • U.S. independent oil and gas producers

    Producers active in the Permian and other U.S. basins competing for the same assets and investment 1.

  • International oil companies

    Large operators competing for international projects and talent amid volatile prices 1.

  • NGL producers

    Companies competing in the NGL market, where Occidental's realized prices have been below WTI 1.

  • Carbon capture technology providers

    Companies active in CCUS and DAC, an area where Occidental competes for partnerships and financing 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report13 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 May 2026
  • Current report05 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report04 May 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Proxy statement19 Mar 2026
  • Current report09 Mar 2026
    Material agreement · Item 3.03 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Occidental Petroleum Corporation · 18 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Occidental Petroleum Corporation · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Occidental Petroleum Corporation · 13 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.