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olivLaw · US equity research

The GEO Group, Inc. GEO

General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs · SIC 1520 · Vertical: General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs (SIC 1520)

25.17USD−8.57% · 1 dayClose 05 Nov 2026

The GEO Group owns and manages secure facilities, processing centers and reentry centers in the United States, Australia and South Africa, with about 75,000 beds. The company recorded its most active period for new contract wins in 2025, and its expanded ICE work keeps it in the focus of the press and investors.

At the close of 05 Nov 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) stock was 25.17 USD (−8.57% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.3 bn USD, P/E 11.9 on diluted EPS of 2.12 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 1.15, 52-week range 13.26–32.77 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 732.1 m USD (+15.1% YoY), net income of 47.5 m USD (+63.2% YoY), diluted EPS 0.36 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.3 bn USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.9
Diluted EPS TTM 2.12 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
8.43%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.00%
DPS 12m 0.00
Beta (2y)
1.15
Volatility (1y) 50%
52-week range
13.2632.77

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
31.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
25.17 – 31.90
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.00 · band width 23.6%
SMA 50 / 200
30.13 / 24.39
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.94 / -0.81
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−15.9%−1.1%−14.8 pp—
3 months−16.5%−0.5%−16.0 pp—
6 months+18.6%+4.4%+14.2 pp—
Year to date+56.1%+12.3%+43.8 pp—
1 year+49.7%+13.5%+36.2 pp−30.2%
3 years+181.2%+76.4%+104.8 pp—
5 years+163.3%+63.7%+99.6 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−28.6%
22 Jan 2026 → 20 Feb 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−62.5%
17 Jan 2025 → 20 Feb 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+21.4%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
732.1 m USD
+15.1% YoY
Net income
47.5 m USD
+63.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.36
+71.4% YoY
net / operating
6.5% / 13.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue603.1 m607.7 m604.6 m636.2 m682.3 m707.7 m705.2 m732.1 m
Operating income82.4 m67.9 m61.0 m72.0 m40.7 m83.8 m89.3 m101.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation31.8 m31.8 m32.1 m32.7 m33.0 m34.1 m33.8 m34.2 m
Interest expense45.5 m43.2 m42.4 m41.9 m38.2 m37.9 m38.3 m38.6 m
Pre-tax income37.1 m24.5 m20.5 m37.5 m229.6 m47.9 m52.7 m65.7 m
Income tax11.7 m10.0 m1.8 m10.6 m56.4 m16.9 m15.0 m18.9 m
Net income26.3 m15.5 m19.6 m29.1 m173.9 m31.8 m38.3 m47.5 m
Diluted EPS0.190.11 ≈0.140.211.240.23 ≈0.290.36
Operating cash flow109.3 m ≈18.5 m71.2 m39.2 m ≈79.6 m ≈-117.3 m156.5 m80.0 m ≈
Capex18.7 m ≈20.8 m30.8 m36.8 m ≈93.7 m ≈36.2 m21.7 m20.6 m ≈
Share repurchases——00 ≈41.6 m ≈49.4 m50.1 m36.6 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 36 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 6.4, median 14.6, max 153.3; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.3 bn2.5 bn2.4 bn2.3 bn2.4 bn2.4 bn2.4 bn2.6 bn
Revenue YoY+3.0%+6.3%−5.2%−4.0%+5.3%+1.5%+0.4%+8.6%
Net income145.1 m166.6 m113.0 m77.4 m171.8 m107.3 m32.0 m254.4 m
Net income YoY−0.8%+14.8%−32.2%−31.5%+121.9%−37.5%−70.2%+695.8%
Diluted EPS1.201.400.940.581.170.720.221.82
Diluted EPS YoY−0.8%+16.7%−32.9%−38.3%+101.7%−38.5%−69.4%+727.3%
net %6.2%6.7%4.8%3.4%7.2%4.4%1.3%9.7%
Free cash flow78.8 m220.9 m332.9 m213.2 m198.0 m204.8 m163.5 m-124.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
69.0 m USD
Financial debt
1.7 bn USD
Net debt
1.6 bn USD
Equity
1.5 bn USD
Total assets
3.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.10x
Current ratio
2.01x
ROE
17.9%
ROA
6.8%
FCF margin
-4.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.4 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
352.4 m
2024
310.0 m
2025
257.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
125.8 m
2024
126.2 m
2025
132.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
478.2 m ≈
2024
436.2 m ≈
2025
389.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
218.3 m
2024
190.6 m
2025
160.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
138.0 m
2024
38.6 m
2025
335.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
35.4 m
2024
9.4 m
2025
85.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
107.3 m
2024
32.0 m
2025
254.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.72
2024
0.22
2025
1.82

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
123.7 m
2024
134.1 m
2025
139.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.00
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Feb 2024verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
94.0 m
2024
76.9 m
2025
69.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
390.0 m
2024
376.0 m
2025
593.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
25.1 m
2024
35.9 m
2025
41.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
528.5 m
2024
500.2 m
2025
718.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
755.2 m
2024
756.0 m
2025
756.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
135.9 m
2024
126.6 m
2025
117.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
3.7 bn
2024
3.6 bn
2025
3.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
64.4 m
2024
67.5 m
2025
58.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
55.9 m
2024
1.6 m
2025
1.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
437.5 m
2024
340.2 m
2025
356.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
277.8 m
2024
242.2 m
2025
72.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
73.0 m
2024
78.7 m
2025
197.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
204.8 m ≈
2024
163.5 m ≈
2025
-124.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-53.4 m
2024
-101.7 m
2025
105.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-208.1 m
2024
-168.9 m
2025
-185.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2022verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
91.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-16.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
695.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
14.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
17.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
727.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
15.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
14.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-176.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
15.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
11.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
20.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
7.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
7.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
3.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
1.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
2.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
198.7 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
172.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
26.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
44.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
59 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
4.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
11.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
8.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
15.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
125.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
0.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
5.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Risk

Altman Z
unavailable
input data missing

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 47 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

25.17 USD

05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
11.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
20.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
10.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

31/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2607derived 173

Score by group

  • Balance sheet27
  • Returns77
  • Quality47
  • Growth64
  • Valuation46

Estimated value range

Low
5.28
USD per share
Mid
9.69
USD per share
High
17.60
USD per share
Price: 25.17 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -61.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -159.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.28 – 17.60 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)5.28 – 17.60 (Mid 9.69)
    WACC 7.7% · starting FCFF 138.0 m USD · terminal value share of EV 78%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 29.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs (SIC 1520)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 47/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality7.7%43 (on a fixed band)11%
Net margin · Quality10.3%100 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality9.1%0 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.5%29 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth15.9%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet3.3x20 (on a fixed band)11%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.1x9 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.7x71 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation11.9x82 (on a fixed band)11%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation10.6x40 (on a fixed band)11%
FCF yield · Valuation0.8%10 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns5.4%77 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet27/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth64/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality47/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial77/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation46/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 8.6%; net margin 10.3%; ROE 20.1%; net debt/EBITDA 3.3x.

The estimated value range is 5.28–17.60 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 9.69 USD, the price of 25.17 USD leaves a potential of -61.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -159.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 10.3%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 15.9%
  • Current ratio: 1.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 11.9x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.4%

What contradicts it

  • FCF conversion: 9.1%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.5%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 3.3x
  • Interest coverage: 2.1x
  • FCF yield: 0.8%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs (SIC 1520) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
11.9x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
vertical median —
P/S
1.2x
vertical median 1.8x
below median (−33.6%)
P/B
2.2x
vertical median 7.1x
below median (−69.3%)
ROE
20.1%
vertical median -23.6%
above median
Net margin
10.3%
vertical median -7.9%
above median
EBIT margin
11.2%
vertical median -16.5%
above median
Revenue YoY
8.6%
vertical median -3.5%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
3.3x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
0.0%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.5.9 bn24.038.5%8.5%+1.0%−17% / +48%
GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.3.3 bn11.920.1%10.3%+8.6%+50% / +181%
FBGLFBS Global Limited29.2 m—-23.6%-7.9%+84.3%−67% / unavailable
SPHLSpringview Holdings Ltd26.6 m—-36.4%-30.1%−5.8%−36% / unavailable
ONEGOneConstruction Group Limited20.3 m—-212.7%-26.8%−7.2%+6% / unavailable
LENLennar Corp——5.9%4.1%−3.5%−30% / −26%

1- and 3-year price returns: for GEO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
15.37
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
27.19
Total return 8% · Per year 8%
40.98
Total return 63% · Per year 63%
3 years
14.61
Total return -42% · Per year -17%
29.10
Total return 16% · Per year 5%
48.20
Total return 91% · Per year 24%
5 years
13.88
Total return -45% · Per year -11%
31.15
Total return 24% · Per year 4%
56.69
Total return 125% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 7.28
  • Net margin± 5.09
  • Annual revenue growth± 4.22
  • Annual dilution± 0.43

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

The GEO Group owns and manages secure facilities, processing centers and reentry centers in the United States, Australia and South Africa, with about 75,000 beds. The company recorded its most active period for new contract wins in 2025, and its expanded ICE work keeps it in the focus of the press and investors.13

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has extensive experience running secure facilities and a high rate of ACA accreditation. This helps it win and keep government contracts.
  • The portfolio spans four segments, which reduces reliance on any single service type. The broad service range supports offers to different clients.
  • The company has reduced net debt and kept up a steady share repurchase pace, which points to financial discipline in capital management.

Weaknesses

  • A limited number of government clients generates a large share of revenue. Losing one of them could materially affect results.
  • High debt limits financial flexibility and exposes the company to higher interest rates, particularly on floating rate portions.
  • Idle facilities carry maintenance costs and may require impairment if new clients are not found.

Opportunities

  • Activating idle facilities and new ICE contracts could add revenue. The guidance does not yet include the contribution of these contracts.
  • Higher volume in the ISAP program and in secure transportation could support growth in monitoring and transport services.
  • If labor cost savings persist, margins could stay better than in earlier years.

Threats

  • State laws restricting contracts with private operators could reduce the number of available contracts in some regions.
  • Political changes in the federal administration could alter detention policy and the volume of contracts with government agencies.
  • Pending litigation and civil liability risks could create unforeseen costs if courts rule against the company.

Risks

  • Reliance on government clientshigh

    Most revenue comes from a few government clients, and a decision by one of them to reduce or end a contract could affect results.

  • High indebtednesshigh

    Total debt is substantial, and rising interest rates could raise financing costs, especially on floating rate portions.

  • Political and legislative oppositionmedium

    Measures restricting public-private partnerships could lead to lost contracts or difficulty obtaining financing.

  • Litigation and liabilitymedium

    The company is involved in lawsuits that could produce significant payments, and insurance does not cover all claims.

  • Currency fluctuationslow

    Operations in Australia, the United Kingdom and South Africa expose revenue to exchange rate changes.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • New ICE contracts and the reactivation of idle facilities could support sustained growth in revenue and operating income over the coming years.
  • Improved guidance and lower leverage could strengthen investor confidence if quarterly results stay in line.
  • Activity spread across several segments could reduce the risk tied to any single contract type.

What would break the thesis

  • If detention policy shifts, contract volume could fall quickly and revenue could be affected.
  • High debt and rising financing costs could limit the company's ability to invest and repurchase shares.
  • Opposition to public-private partnerships is growing, and several financial institutions have withdrawn support, which could complicate access to capital.

What to watch

  • Activation of the Big Horn and Rivers contracts and their contribution to revenueQ4 2026
  • Changes to guidance for the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2026Q4 2026
  • Transition of the Graceville and Bay managed-only contracts in Florida2027
  • Status of California bill AB1633 and its gross receipts tax2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

GEO owns, leases and manages secure facilities, processing centers and reentry facilities, and provides community-based services. The company also offers secure transportation in the United States and the United Kingdom through its joint venture GEOAmey, along with electronic monitoring, supervision and treatment programs.1 Its clients are mainly government agencies, and consolidated revenues reached 2.6 billion USD in fiscal 2025.1

The business operates under a public-private partnership model in which government agencies contract for the construction, financing and operation of facilities. Most services are delivered in facilities the company owns, leases or that belong to its government partners.1 In 2025 the company reactivated several idle facilities and bought the San Diego unit it previously leased.1

Leadership changed in early 2026: the founder became chief executive officer, and the former chief executive officer retired and remained as a consultant for secure services business opportunities in the United States and overseas.1

Segments

U.S. Secure Services

The largest segment covers operation of secure facilities and processing centers in the United States. In fiscal 2025, about 86% of segment revenue came from ACA accredited facilities.1

Electronic Monitoring and Supervision

This segment provides GPS, radio frequency and alcohol monitoring devices, along with supervision services for people outside detention. A two-year contract with ICE for the ISAP program was renewed with a one-year initial term and a one-year option.1

International Services

International operations include public-private partnerships in Australia and South Africa, plus secure transportation in the United Kingdom through GEOAmey. These activities are run in different currencies, which exposes results to exchange rate changes.12

Market context

Demand from the federal government for detention capacity, particularly from ICE, is the main driver of the market, having grown after the 2025 executive orders and the Laken Riley Act. Quarterly revenue rose 15% in the second quarter of 2026, and fiscal 2026 guidance points to revenues between 2.95 and 3.05 billion USD.13

The market remains sensitive to political decisions, state budgets and opposition to public-private partnerships, which could change long-term demand. Financial institutions that stopped analyst coverage of GEO have added pressure to market perception.1

Competitive position

The company competes for government contracts with other private operators of secure and reentry facilities, and competition may compress margins at renewal. The sources do not name competitors explicitly, so the list below is limited to categories mentioned in the documents.1

In electronic monitoring and supervision, competition comes from technology providers that offer alternatives to detention. If governments favor cheaper technology solutions, this could affect the company's share in that segment.1

  • Private operators of secure facilities

    Competitors for government contracts to run detention facilities, mentioned generically in the company's documents.

  • Reentry service providers

    Organizations offering community programs and temporary housing that compete for reentry contracts.

  • Electronic monitoring providers

    Companies offering GPS devices and supervision systems as alternatives to physical detention.

  • Secure transportation operators

    Providers competing for detainee transport contracts in the United States and the United Kingdom.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

  • Current report08 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report05 Oct 2026
    Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
  • Current report06 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report07 May 2026
  • Current report06 May 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report04 May 2026
    Shareholder vote
  • Proxy statement19 Mar 2026
  • Current report05 Mar 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Annual report25 Feb 2026

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / The GEO Group, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / The GEO Group, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / The GEO Group, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.