olivLaw · US equity research
OneConstruction Group Ltd ONEG
General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs · SIC 1520 · Vertical: General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs (SIC 1520)
OneConstruction Group is a structural steelwork contractor in Hong Kong that works mainly as a subcontractor on public housing and infrastructure projects. In fiscal 2026 it reported a net loss after cost overruns on legacy projects, which makes the trend in its margins relevant for coming periods.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, OneConstruction Group Ltd (ONEG) stock was 1.40 USD (−7.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 22.4 m USD, beta 0.58, 52-week range 0.69–10.96 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.38 – 1.58
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.85 · band width 122.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.00 / 2.03
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.11 / 0.02
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +51.8% | −1.1% | +52.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +33.3% | −0.5% | +33.8 pp | — |
| 6 months | −78.7% | +4.4% | −83.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | +9.8% | +12.3% | −2.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −86.5% | +13.5% | −100.0 pp | −29.8% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +56.4% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 54.5 m | 63.5 m | 53.2 m | 49.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +16.5% | −16.2% | −7.2% |
| Net income | 1.7 m | 1.8 m | 898.0 k | -13.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +5.9% | −49.2% | −1,571.2% |
| Diluted EPS | 15.00 | 16.00 | 8.00 | -84.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +6.7% | −50.0% | −1,150.0% |
| net % | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.7% | -26.8% |
| Free cash flow | -1.8 m | -7.0 m | -5.1 m | 1.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Mar 2026
- Cash
- 1.7 m USD
- Financial debt
- 913.0 k USD
- Net debt
- -781.0 k USD
- Equity
- 283.0 k USD
- Total assets
- 36.9 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.23x
- Current ratio
- 2.54x
- ROE
- -212.7%
- ROA
- -30.5%
- FCF margin
- 2.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 54.5 m | 63.5 m | 53.2 m | 49.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 51.7 m | 59.0 m | 49.3 m | 56.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 2.8 m | 4.4 m | 3.9 m | -7.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Operating income | 2.2 m | 2.2 m | 1.7 m | -12.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 169.0 k | 312.0 k | 351.0 k | 298.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 2.0 m | 1.9 m | 1.1 m | -13.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Income tax | 362.0 k | 141.0 k | 241.0 k | 186.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.7 m | 1.8 m | 898.0 k | -13.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 15.00 | 16.00 | 8.00 | -84.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 11.3 m | 11.3 m | 11.7 m | 15.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.3 m | 1.6 m | 749.0 k | 1.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 233.0 k | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Aug 2025verified |
| Current assets | — | 43.2 m | 49.1 m | 36.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 13.0 k | 11.0 k | 414.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 43.6 m | 49.8 m | 36.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 6.5 m | 10.4 m | 9.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 2.3 m | 2.1 m | 913.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 38.0 m | 15.9 m | 14.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Equity | 3.8 m † | 5.6 m † | 12.1 m † | 283.0 k † | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 13.0 m | 16.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -1.8 m | -7.0 m | -5.1 m | 1.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Capex | 6.0 k | 7.0 k | 3.0 k | 490.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.8 m ≈ | -7.0 m ≈ | -5.1 m ≈ | 1.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -6.0 k | -7.0 k | -3.0 k | -255.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 1.5 m | 7.2 m | 4.3 m | -584.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Jul 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 22.4 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
44% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.13 – 1.70 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)1.13 – 1.70 (Mid 1.35)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 1.5 m USD · terminal value share of EV 72%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -1.7%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -163.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Net margin · Quality | -26.8% | 20 (vs peers) | 14% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -3.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -42.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 5.8% | 72 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial72/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
OneConstruction Group Limited (ONEG). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 49.4 m USD in 2026; YoY growth -7.2%; net margin -26.8%; ROE -212.7%.
The estimated value range is 1.13–1.70 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 1.35 USD, the price of 1.40 USD leaves a potential of -3.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -3.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 2.5x
- FCF yield: 5.8%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -163.1%
- Net margin: -26.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.2%
- Interest coverage: -42.4x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
General Bldg Contractors - Residential Bldgs (SIC 1520) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc. | 6.3 bn | 25.3 | 38.5% | 8.5% | +1.0% | −12% / +56% |
| GEOThe GEO Group, Inc. | 3.6 bn | 13.0 | 20.1% | 10.3% | +8.6% | +75% / +171% |
| FBGLFBS Global Limited | 28.5 m | — | -23.6% | -7.9% | +84.3% | −68% / unavailable |
| SPHLSpringview Holdings Ltd | 27.8 m | — | -36.4% | -30.1% | −5.8% | −33% / unavailable |
| ONEGOneConstruction Group Limited | 22.4 m | — | -212.7% | -26.8% | −7.2% | −86% / unavailable |
| LENLennar Corp | — | — | 5.9% | 4.1% | −3.5% | −30% / −26% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ONEG from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026).
In brief
OneConstruction Group is a structural steelwork contractor in Hong Kong that works mainly as a subcontractor on public housing and infrastructure projects. In fiscal 2026 it reported a net loss after cost overruns on legacy projects, which makes the trend in its margins relevant for coming periods 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has established experience in structural steel construction and a specialist contractor registration recognised by Hong Kong authorities 1.
- The management team has long experience in property development and construction, which supports relationships with public clients 1.
- Its quality control system and supplier relationships let the company respond quickly to urgent orders 1.
Weaknesses
- The company depends on a small number of projects and public sector clients, so revenue is sensitive to project completion 1.
- Cost overruns and final account adjustments on older projects produced a gross loss in fiscal 2026 1.
- The company needs substantial working capital at the start of projects and has not built enough resources to expand several projects at once 1.
Opportunities
- Rising spending on infrastructure and public housing could open new contracts for structural steel 1.
- If financing and workforce capacity improve, the company could take on larger and more complex projects 1.
- The Northern Metropolis strategy and related projects could support long-term demand for structural steel 1.
Threats
- A further decline in private property activity could continue to reduce private sector revenue 1.
- The risk of auditor inspection under US rules could affect trading of the shares on Nasdaq 1.
- The majority shareholder holds more than half of the voting rights, which may limit the influence of minority shareholders 1.
Risks
- Cost overruns on projectshigh
Cost overruns and final account adjustments on older projects produced a gross loss in fiscal 2026, which could affect results if new projects face similar problems 1.
- Concentration on public clientsmedium
Most revenue comes from public projects, and changes in government budgets could reduce the volume of work quickly 1.
- Cash flowmedium
The company needs funding before first client payments arrive, and payment delays could strain liquidity if projects expand 1.
- US audit inspection rulesmedium
If the auditor cannot be fully inspected by the PCAOB, the company's shares could face trading restrictions on Nasdaq 1.
- Concentrated controllow
The majority shareholder can influence key decisions, and the company may use governance exemptions that could affect public shareholders 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If infrastructure and public housing projects advance, the company could recover its revenue and improve margins after the loss-making projects are completed 1.
- The management team's experience and recognised certifications could help the company win new public tenders 1.
- The Northern Metropolis strategy and faster public housing output could support medium-term demand if funding remains available 1.
What would break the thesis
- The gross loss in fiscal 2026 shows how quickly cost overruns can wipe out profitability, and this could continue if new projects are not well estimated 1.
- Falling revenue and fewer completed projects suggest a narrow client base, and losing one large contract could hurt the company badly 1.
- Limited capital and the need to fund up-front costs could restrict the company's ability to take on larger projects 1.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and costs on ongoing projectsnext 10-K
- Number of new public sector projects won2027
- Development of private sector revenuenext 10-K
- Auditor status and any PCAOB or Nasdaq measures2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 23 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (25 Aug 2026), 6-K (21 Aug 2026).
The business
OneConstruction Group Ltd operates through its subsidiary OneC Engineering, a contractor that procures and installs structural steel for construction projects in Hong Kong, established in 2021 1. The company works as a subcontractor for general contractors, and its clients are mainly public sector projects covering housing, infrastructure and public facilities 1. The Cayman holding company, listed on Nasdaq as ONEG, has no operations of its own and relies on the Hong Kong subsidiary 1.
In fiscal 2026 the company completed four projects compared with nine in fiscal 2025, and revenue fell to 49.4 million USD from 53.2 million USD 1. Revenue remained dominated by the public sector, which generated 48.8 million USD, while the private sector fell to 0.6 million USD 1. The company relies on an experienced management team and on its registration as a Registered Specialist Trade Contractor with the Construction Industry Council 1.
The company's cash flow is shaped by up-front costs that must be paid before first progress payments from clients, typically seven to ten months after a project starts 1. The company did not declare or pay dividends in fiscal 2025 or 2026 and intends to retain earnings to grow the business 1.
Segments
Public sector
The public sector, covering infrastructure, public facilities and public housing, generated 48.8 million USD in fiscal 2026 and accounts for most of the company's revenue 1. Within this sector, infrastructure and public facilities revenue rose while public housing revenue for the Hong Kong Housing Authority declined 1.
Private sector
The private sector, made up of commercial, industrial and residential projects, contributed only 0.6 million USD in fiscal 2026, a sharp drop from the prior year. The company attributes the decline to a slowdown in Hong Kong's commercial and residential property development 1.
Market context
According to the Construction Industry Council of Hong Kong, expenditure on building and civil works in the public and private sectors rose from 17.8 billion HKD in 2022 to 23.7 billion HKD in 2025, and is expected to reach 27.6 billion HKD in 2030 1. Demand for structural steel is expected to be supported by major infrastructure projects and the Northern Metropolis strategy 1. The company expects steady growth, though this depends on government funding and property activity 1.
The company describes the Hong Kong structural steelwork market as competitive and fragmented, with contractors offering flexible and comprehensive services generally preferred by developers and government agencies 1. Government efforts to speed up public housing and infrastructure could support medium-term demand 1.
Trends
- Public infrastructure investmenttailwind
Projects such as the Tung Chung New Town Extension, New Central Harbourfront and Yuen Long South New Development Areas are under way and could support demand for structural steel 1. If these projects stay on schedule, the company could win new contracts 1.
- Public housingmixed
The Hong Kong government has accelerated public housing production, which could create opportunities for steel subcontractors 1. However, public housing revenue declined in fiscal 2026, showing that project timing matters a great deal 1.
- Weak private property marketheadwind
The slowdown in commercial and residential property development in Hong Kong reduced private sector revenue, and this could continue if the market stays weak 1.
- Labour and material costsheadwind
Higher material costs and cost overruns on older projects contributed to the gross loss in fiscal 2026, pointing to margin pressure 1. If these costs stay high, margins could remain under pressure in later periods 1.
Competitive position
The Hong Kong structural steel market is fragmented, with many subcontractors competing on quality, timing, price and financing capacity 1. The company differentiates itself through certifications, experience and quality control, but it does not hold a dominant position 1. The source does not identify direct competitors or their market shares 1.
Contractors with solid capital and stable cash flow are favoured in tender processes, which could advantage larger competitors 1. The company acknowledges that its limited resources restrict the number of projects it can run at the same time 1.
- Local Hong Kong structural steel subcontractors
The source refers to a fragmented market with many subcontractors but does not name them or their market shares 1.
- Site work subcontracting providers
The company uses third-party subcontractors when volume exceeds its own capacity, so these are more partners than rivals 1.
- Hong Kong developers and general contractors
These parties are the company's direct clients and, through tenders, determine which contractors are selected 1.
- Machinery leasing providers
The company rents cranes and bending and cutting machines, so these suppliers influence operating costs 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)25 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Aug 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)23 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)06 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)08 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)14 Jan 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Dec 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)26 Nov 2025
- Annual report (foreign issuer)12 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / OneConstruction Group Ltd · 23 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.