olivLaw · US equity research
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. GO
Retail-Grocery Stores · SIC 5411 · Vertical: Retail-Grocery Stores (SIC 5411)
Grocery Outlet is an extreme value grocery retailer whose stores are mostly run by independent operators (IOs), buying name-brand products opportunistically. In 2026 the company is reshaping its model: it closed 36 underperforming stores and is revising its growth plans while comparable sales remain weak.
At the close of 30 Oct 2026, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) stock was 12.93 USD (+0.39% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.3 bn USD, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 0.28, 52-week range 5.79–14.24 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 1.2 bn USD (+1.1% YoY), net income of 5.6 m USD (+13.4% YoY), diluted EPS 0.06 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 57.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 11.33 – 13.88
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.63 · band width 20.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 12.01 / 9.56
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.37 / 0.41
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +14.9% | −0.9% | +15.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +40.7% | +1.2% | +39.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | +54.9% | +4.8% | +50.0 pp | — |
| Year to date | +28.0% | +10.7% | +17.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −5.3% | +11.1% | −16.5 pp | −2.8% |
| 3 years | −53.3% | +80.7% | −134.0 pp | +16.3% |
| 5 years | −41.7% | +64.6% | −106.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 04 Jul 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 | Q4 '26 | Q1 '27 | Q2 '27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 763.3 m | 774.0 m | 783.1 m | 819.1 m | 813.0 m | 854.2 m | 821.2 m | 832.0 m |
| Gross profit | 344.9 m | 323.9 m | 342.4 m | 360.7 m | 355.1 m | 361.0 m | 345.2 m | 360.7 m |
| SG&A | 304.6 m | 296.6 m | 331.1 m | 336.8 m | 331.0 m | 333.4 m | 347.0 m | 339.5 m |
| Operating income | 40.3 m | 11.4 m | -22.5 m | 12.8 m | 22.8 m | -234.8 m | -178.0 m | 15.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 33.8 m | 4.4 m | -29.0 m | 6.2 m | 16.1 m | -242.5 m | -184.4 m | 9.2 m |
| Income tax | 9.7 m | 2.1 m | -5.7 m | 1.3 m | 4.5 m | -24.3 m | -4.1 m | 3.6 m |
| Net income | 24.2 m | 2.3 m | -23.3 m | 5.0 m | 11.6 m | -218.2 m | -180.3 m | 5.6 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.24 | 0.02 ≈ | -0.24 | 0.05 | 0.12 | -2.22 ≈ | -1.83 | 0.06 |
| Operating cash flow | 23.0 m ≈ | 39.5 m | 58.9 m | 73.6 m ≈ | 17.3 m ≈ | 72.3 m | 52.6 m | 43.2 m ≈ |
| Capex | 42.4 m ≈ | 59.1 m | 60.5 m | 59.2 m ≈ | 38.8 m ≈ | 39.8 m | 52.8 m | 41.8 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Share repurchases | 25.0 m ≈ | 25.0 m | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +10.2% | +11.9% | unavailable | +14.1% | +10.9% | +10.1% | unavailable |
| Net income | 20.6 m | 15.9 m | 15.4 m | 106.7 m | 65.1 m | 79.4 m | 39.5 m | -224.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −23.0% | −2.8% | unavailable | −39.0% | +22.1% | −50.3% | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.19 | 1.08 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.40 | -2.30 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −23.3% | −17.4% | unavailable | −39.8% | +21.5% | −49.4% | unavailable |
| net % | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | -4.8% |
| Free cash flow | 13.6 m | 41.0 m | 35.6 m | 56.3 m | 55.0 m | 134.5 m | -74.6 m | 23.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2026 · 03 Jan 2026
- Cash
- 69.6 m USD
- Financial debt
- 492.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 423.3 m USD
- Equity
- 983.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 3.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.50x
- Current ratio
- 1.37x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -7.3%
- FCF margin
- 0.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 787.1 m | 973.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| SG&A | 639.4 m | 772.4 m | 997.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | 68.3 m | 107.4 m | 95.0 m | 125.8 m | 78.3 m | -221.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 47.9 m | 55.5 m | 78.3 m | 88.0 m | 108.2 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 116.2 m ≈ | 162.9 m ≈ | 173.2 m ≈ | 213.8 m ≈ | 186.5 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 26 Feb 2025derived |
| Pre-tax income | 16.8 m | 87.1 m | 75.7 m | 104.1 m | 56.2 m | -249.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.4 m | -19.6 m | 10.7 m | 24.6 m | 16.7 m | -24.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | 15.4 m | 106.7 m | 65.1 m | 79.4 m | 39.5 m | -224.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 | 1.08 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 0.40 | -2.30 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 81.9 m | 98.5 m | 100.2 m | 100.8 m | 99.6 m | 98.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 28.1 m | 105.3 m | 102.7 m | 115.0 m | 62.8 m | 69.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | 5.1 m | 3.3 m | 9.0 m | 13.1 m | 15.6 m | 14.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 270.8 m | 382.0 m | 467.4 m | 516.6 m | 503.9 m | 497.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 356.6 m | 433.7 m | 560.7 m | 642.5 m | 750.4 m | 743.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 747.9 m | 747.9 m | 747.9 m | 747.9 m | 782.7 m | 633.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 47.8 m | 48.2 m | 64.0 m | 78.6 m | 78.8 m | 78.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total assets | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 246.0 k | 0 | 0 | 5.6 m | 15.0 m | 15.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 460.4 m | 460.0 m | 379.7 m | 287.1 m | 462.5 m | 477.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 208.6 m | 232.6 m | 280.5 m | 384.0 m | 349.6 m | 364.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | 745.4 m † | 922.3 m † | 1.1 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 1.2 bn † | 983.7 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2019 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 132.8 m | 181.2 m | 185.5 m | 303.4 m | 112.0 m | 222.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 97.2 m | 124.9 m | 130.5 m | 169.0 m | 186.6 m | 198.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 35.6 m ≈ | 56.3 m ≈ | 55.0 m ≈ | 134.5 m ≈ | -74.6 m ≈ | 23.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -108.0 m | -133.8 m | -149.9 m | -194.2 m | -274.0 m | -229.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -17.8 m | 29.8 m | -72.9 m | -97.0 m | 109.9 m | 14.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.6 m | 434.0 k | 105.0 k | 15.0 k | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 0 | 3.5 m | 5.9 m | 81.4 m | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
30 Oct 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
48% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -22.0% | 14 (vs peers) | 22% |
| Net margin · Quality | -8.0% | 11 (vs peers) | 13% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 5.7% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 41 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.9% | 12 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 0.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial41/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial48/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality13/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns40/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial12/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-07-04.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.7 bn USD in 2026; net margin -8.0%; ROE -38.1%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 47.9% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Payout ratio (FCF): 0.0%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -22.0%
- Net margin: -8.0%
- FCF yield: 0.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Grocery Stores (SIC 5411) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 10 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KRKroger Co | 39.4 bn | 36.4 | 14.3% | 0.7% | +0.4% | +5% / +47% |
| ACIAlbertsons Companies, Inc. | 6.2 bn | — | -2.3% | -0.1% | +3.5% | −26% / −40% |
| SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | 4.6 bn | 9.5 | 33.5% | 5.4% | +14.1% | −37% / +18% |
| WMKWeis Markets, Inc | 1.8 bn | 18.5 | 7.4% | 2.0% | +3.5% | +17% / +14% |
| GOGrocery Outlet Holding Corp. | 1.3 bn | — | -38.1% | -8.0% | unavailable | −5% / −53% |
| NGVCNatural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | 661.2 m | 13.9 | 21.6% | 3.5% | +7.2% | −11% / +128% |
| VLGEAVillage Super Market, Inc. | 179.8 m | 3.4 | 10.3% | 2.2% | +3.7% | +36% / +75% |
| HOSTHost Digital Inc. | 92.5 m | — | -207.8% | -13.3% | +12.7% | −86% / unavailable |
| MSSMaison Solutions Inc. | 17.7 m | — | — | — | +4.8% | −97% / −100% |
| IMKTAIngles Markets, Incorporated | — | — | 6.3% | 1.9% | −5.4% | +22% / +5% |
| TBBBBbb Foods Inc | — | — | -69.6% | -3.6% | +36.1% | +107% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Grocery Outlet is an extreme value grocery retailer whose stores are mostly run by independent operators (IOs), buying name-brand products opportunistically. In 2026 the company is reshaping its model: it closed 36 underperforming stores and is revising its growth plans while comparable sales remain weak.123
SWOT
Strengths
- The opportunistic buying model and prices well below conventional grocers give a clear value advantage. Loyal customers return for the constantly changing WOW deals.
- The IO model aligns operators' interests with the company's and reduces fixed costs and exposure to wages, giving a scalable cost structure.
- Long-standing relationships with consumer goods makers and the ability to buy in large volumes let the company take advantage of excess stock in the market.
Weaknesses
- Comparable store sales have declined and the average transaction size has shrunk. Profitability is under pressure, with gross margin falling.
- The ERP system introduced in 2023 caused major disruptions to ordering, inventory and payments, and the effects persisted into later years.
- The company recorded goodwill and long-lived asset impairments, which point to difficulties in the performance of existing stores.
Opportunities
- Rebuilding the opportunistic assortment could improve the value perception and sales. The company has already seen opportunistic product sales improve compared with the first quarter.
- Growing private-label products could improve margins for both the company and its IOs. A clustered expansion into new markets could reduce logistics costs.
- Online sales growth and selective real estate or regional acquisitions could open new growth channels if executed efficiently.
Threats
- Rivals with aggressive promotions could keep pressure on prices and margins. A price war could erode the company's value advantage.
- New tariffs and uncertainty over refunds could raise purchasing and construction costs. The final impact remains hard to estimate.
- Disruptions to food assistance programs could reduce demand from customers who depend on these payments.
Risks
- Dependence on opportunistic supplyhigh
The company does not control much of the price and availability of opportunistic products. If supplier behavior changes, sales and margins could be affected.1
- Decline in comparable saleshigh
If comparable sales do not recover, profitability and growth plans could be affected. Economic conditions and competition are largely outside the company's control.12
- Restructuring and related costsmedium
Closure, IO termination and lease exit costs could exceed estimates. The impact on results could be significant in the coming periods.2
- Technology and logistics riskmedium
Disruptions to the ERP system or distribution centers could affect orders and payments. A major incident could have short-term effects on stores.1
- Trade policy and tariffsmedium
Changes in tariffs and uncertainty over refunds may affect costs and financial results. The company says it cannot yet estimate the full impact.12
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If promotions and the opportunistic assortment recover, comparable sales could follow the trajectory of the second quarter. That could signal the recovery strategy is working.
- If the store network optimization is completed, the company could have a firmer base for profitable growth. Restructuring costs could prove temporary.
- The IO model and opportunistic buying could remain advantages that are hard to copy, especially if the excess inventory market keeps growing.
What would break the thesis
- If comparable sales keep declining, margins could stay under pressure and the recovery could be slow.
- Price and promotion competition could limit the company's ability to maintain its value advantage, particularly in competitive markets.
- If restructuring costs exceed estimates or tariffs push up costs, profitability could be hit harder than expected.
What to watch
- Trend in comparable store sales and average transaction sizeQ3 2026
- Gross margin, given promotions and markdownsQ3 2026
- Completion of the Optimization Plan and restructuring costsQ1 2027
- Fiscal 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and store openingsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Grocery Outlet sells name-brand consumables and fresh products through a network of small-format stores, mainly run by independent operators. The company says its prices are generally 40% to 70% below those of conventional retailers, and as of January 3, 2026 it had 570 stores in 16 states.1
The 'small business at scale' model combines local decisions by IOs with centralized purchasing power. Operators contribute capital and generally receive 50% of store-level gross profit, while the company retains ownership of merchandise until sale, aligning interests on both sides.1
As of July 4, 2026 there were 547 stores after closing 36 units under the Optimization Plan. The company intends to open 30 to 33 net new stores in 2026 and to expand in a more clustered model in new markets for better supply chain efficiency.2
Segments
IO-operated stores
Most stores are operated by independent operators, who largely choose the assortment, manage inventory, hire staff and market locally. As of January 3, 2026, 529 of the 570 stores were IO-operated.1
Company-operated stores
The remaining stores are run directly by the company, mainly the United Grocery Outlet units acquired in 2024. The company has said that some new stores in 2026 will be company-operated for an uncertain period before transitioning to an IO.1
Private-label products
The company introduced private-label products from the third quarter of fiscal 2024, with approximately 485 SKUs as of January 3, 2026. They are meant to build loyalty and, according to the company, deliver higher margins for both it and its IOs.1
Market context
The company operates in the United States, with stores in 16 states concentrated in the West and East. The discount grocery market is competitive, and pricing pressure from rivals has grown in recent years, raising the cost of maintaining the value advantage.12
Excess inventory in the consumer goods industry offers buying opportunities, and the company believes it holds a leading position in this segment. Consolidation among manufacturers and distributors could, however, reduce supply options and worsen purchasing terms.1
Trends
- Pressure on comparable salesheadwind
Comparable store sales declined in the first half of 2026, driven by a smaller average transaction size. If the trend persists, it could limit any recovery in margins and profitability.23
- Tariffs and costsmixed
Tariffs imposed by the U.S. government may raise costs on some imported products and store construction materials. A Supreme Court ruling may lead to refunds, but their amount and timing remain uncertain.12
- Narrower growth plantailwind
The company has cut back its expansion ambitions, closed underperforming stores and focused investment on clustered markets. If this discipline holds, it could improve long-term returns on invested capital.12
- Assistance program disruptionsheadwind
Interruptions to federally funded assistance programs, including SNAP, weighed on sales during the government shutdown in fiscal 2025. Future disruptions could affect customers' spending habits.1
Competitive position
Grocery Outlet competes with conventional grocers and discount retailers. Competitors have stepped up promotions and pricing activity, putting pressure on the company's value proposition, which it addresses by actively negotiating costs and adjusting prices.12
The company's advantage rests on opportunistic buying and the IO model, which it considers difficult to replicate. Growth in online shopping could, however, intensify competition for customers.1
- Conventional grocery chains
Conventional grocers are cited in the source as the price benchmark against which Grocery Outlet's prices are compared.
- Discount retailers
Discount retailers are another competitor group, against which the company says its basket is priced lower.
- Chains with aggressive promotions
The source notes increased promotional and pricing activity from key competitors in recent years.
- Online retail
The company expects the shift of customers toward online shopping to increase competition for customers.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Grocery Outlet (GO) Raises Guidance While Nursing A Widening LossYahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Grocery Outlet Director Jaros Buys 15,000 Shares at $11.70Yahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- A Grocery Outlet Insider Purchases 8,000 Shares Amid a 40% Stock DeclineYahoo Finance — News · 23 Aug 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report12 Aug 2026
- Current report12 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report09 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report03 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report13 May 2026
- Current report13 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement21 Apr 2026
- Current report02 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report04 Mar 2026
- Current report04 Mar 2026Results of operations · Exit or disposal costs · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-03 · SEC / Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. · 04 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-07-04 · SEC / Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. · 12 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. · 12 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.