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olivLaw · US equity research

Groupon, Inc. GRPN

Services-Advertising Agencies · SIC 7311 · Vertical: Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311)

17.31USD+11.68% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Groupon is a global two-sided marketplace linking consumers with local merchants for experiences, services and goods, increasingly through mobile devices. In 2026 the company is running an AI-native transformation called Project Foundry, with a restructuring plan that targets up to 400 position reductions and estimated annual savings that could support margins if execution keeps pace with demand. Revenue for fiscal 2025 was 498.4 million USD, and 2026 guidance points to revenue between 513 and 523 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Groupon, Inc. (GRPN) stock was 17.31 USD (+11.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 703.9 m USD, beta 1.43, 52-week range 9.64–28.58 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 124.7 m USD (−0.8% YoY), net income of -1.8 m USD (−108.7% YoY), diluted EPS -0.04 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
703.9 m USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -3.10 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-17.91%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.43
Volatility (1y) 76%
52-week range
9.6428.58

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
49.4
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
14.83 – 19.15
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.58 · band width 25.4%
SMA 50 / 200
18.44 / 17.63
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.82 / -0.89
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−12.2%−1.1%−11.1 pp—
3 months−36.6%−0.5%−36.1 pp—
6 months+9.2%+4.4%+4.8 pp—
Year to date−1.7%+12.3%−14.0 pp—
1 year−9.2%+13.5%−22.7 pp+0.4%
3 years+19.5%+76.4%−56.9 pp−19.4%
5 years−32.3%+63.7%−95.9 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−52.9%
05 Nov 2025 → 13 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−90.3%
31 Jan 2022 → 16 May 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
−7.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
124.7 m USD
−0.8% YoY
Net income
-1.8 m USD
−108.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.04
−108.7% YoY
net / operating
-1.4% / -0.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue114.5 m130.4 m117.2 m125.7 m122.8 m132.7 m117.2 m124.7 m
Cost of revenue11.6 m12.2 m10.9 m11.3 m11.0 m12.7 m11.2 m11.3 m
Gross profit102.9 m118.2 m106.3 m114.4 m111.8 m120.0 m106.0 m113.4 m
SG&A71.3 m72.5 m69.8 m70.7 m68.3 m65.0 m73.0 m67.7 m
Operating income-5.6 m2.7 m1.9 m13.1 m2.2 m6.5 m-3.3 m-717.0 k
Depreciation & amortisation6.5 m ≈6.0 m5.2 m4.1 m ≈3.9 m ≈3.9 m3.8 m3.8 m ≈
Interest expense2.1 m2.5 m4.0 m3.9 m3.4 m3.0 m4.0 m3.7 m
Pre-tax income16.8 m-41.8 m9.5 m31.5 m-96.5 m10.1 m-7.7 m-4.0 m
Income tax2.3 m8.3 m1.4 m10.9 m21.2 m2.0 m4.9 m-2.5 m
Net income13.9 m-50.6 m7.2 m20.3 m-118.4 m7.3 m-12.9 m-1.8 m
Diluted EPS0.33-1.27 ≈0.170.46-2.920.18 ≈-0.32-0.04
Operating cash flow-16.3 m ≈67.0 m-22.0 k28.4 m ≈-20.5 m ≈56.6 m-10.0 m18.1 m ≈
Capex3.4 m ≈3.7 m3.7 m3.2 m ≈4.1 m ≈3.6 m3.6 m3.1 m ≈
Share repurchases——00 ≈——21.3 m10.1 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.6 bn2.2 bn1.4 bn967.1 m599.1 m514.9 m492.6 m498.4 m
Revenue YoY−7.3%−15.8%−36.1%−31.7%−38.1%−14.1%−4.3%+1.2%
Net income-11.1 m-22.4 m-287.9 m118.7 m-237.6 m-55.4 m-59.0 m-83.5 m
Net income YoY−178.9%unavailableunavailableunavailable−300.2%unavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-0.02-0.79-10.073.68-7.88-1.77-1.51-2.08
Diluted EPS YoY−200.0%unavailableunavailableunavailable−314.1%unavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-0.4%-1.0%-20.3%12.3%-39.7%-10.8%-12.0%-16.8%
Free cash flow121.2 m4.0 m-112.3 m-173.6 m-172.2 m-97.3 m40.6 m49.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
296.1 m USD
Financial debt
342.8 m USD
Net debt
46.8 m USD
Equity
-42.4 m USD
Total assets
670.4 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.98x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-13.0%
FCF margin
10.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
514.9 m
2024
492.6 m
2025
498.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
64.2 m
2024
48.3 m
2025
45.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
450.7 m
2024
444.3 m
2025
452.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
350.4 m
2024
295.4 m
2025
273.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-18.3 m
2024
8.8 m
2025
23.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
43.4 m
2024
27.9 m
2025
17.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
25.1 m ≈
2024
36.7 m ≈
2025
40.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
15.7 m
2024
8.5 m
2025
14.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-43.4 m
2024
-30.4 m
2025
-45.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
9.5 m
2024
26.1 m
2025
35.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-55.4 m
2024
-59.0 m
2025
-83.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-1.77
2024
-1.51
2025
-2.08

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
31.2 m
2024
39.2 m
2025
40.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
141.6 m
2024
228.8 m
2025
296.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
50.4 m
2024
34.2 m
2025
25.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
255.6 m
2024
315.4 m
2025
374.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 06 May 2021verified

Goodwill
2023
178.7 m
2024
178.7 m
2025
178.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
11.4 m
2024
4.7 m
2025
3.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
571.0 m
2024
612.7 m
2025
670.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
15.0 m
2024
11.3 m
2025
8.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
42.8 m
2024
0
2025
33.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
246.0 m
2025
309.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
369.2 m
2024
305.4 m
2025
383.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
611.3 m
2024
571.6 m
2025
712.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-40.3 m
2024
41.1 m
2025
-42.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-78.0 m
2024
55.9 m
2025
64.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
19.3 m
2024
15.3 m
2025
14.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-97.3 m ≈
2024
40.6 m ≈
2025
49.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.4 m
2024
-6.8 m
2025
6.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-35.7 m
2024
47.8 m
2025
-7.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2022verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-5.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-18.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
168.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
23.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
90.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
4.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-25.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-20.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
2.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
81.1 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
4.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
44.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
14.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
29.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
220.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
18 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
126 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
703.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
785.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
39.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
168.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
23.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

17.31 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 703.9 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
703.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
39.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-25.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
1.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 2445derived 172

Score by group

54% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

Low
10.83
USD per share
Mid
14.02
USD per share
High
19.58
USD per share
Price: 17.31 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -19.0% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -23.5% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: single method · 1 methods used · 1 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 10.83 – 19.58 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)10.83 – 19.58 (Mid 14.02)
    WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 41.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 2.9%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-25.3%25 (vs peers)12%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-5.9%0 (on a fixed band)15%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet4.0x0 (on a fixed band)19%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet0.3x0 (on a fixed band)12%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x0 (on a fixed band)8%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation39.0x0 (on a fixed band)19%
FCF yield · Valuation4.3%53 (on a fixed band)15%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet0/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial25/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Groupon, Inc. (GRPN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 498.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 1.2%; net margin -25.3%; net debt/EBITDA 4.0x.

The estimated value range is 10.83–19.58 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 14.02 USD, the price of 17.31 USD leaves a potential of -19.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -23.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 54.2% of at least 60%).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -25.3%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -5.9%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 4.0x
  • Interest coverage: 0.3x
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • EV/EBITDA: 39.0x

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Services-Advertising Agencies (SIC 7311) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 166.2x
EV/EBITDA
39.0x
vertical median —
P/S
1.4x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+53.8%)
P/B
—
vertical median 3.2x
ROE
—
vertical median -3.5%
Net margin
-25.3%
vertical median -0.8%
below median
EBIT margin
0.9%
vertical median 1.0%
at median
Revenue YoY
1.2%
vertical median 1.5%
below median (−20.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
4.0x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
OMCOmnicom Group Inc.23.9 bn50.99.7%2.8%+10.1%+22% / +9%
STGWStagwell Inc2.7 bn281.51.3%0.3%+2.4%+105% / +119%
CRTOCriteo S.A.769.7 m11.46.3%4.0%+0.6%−21% / −37%
GRPNGroupon, Inc.703.9 m——-25.3%+1.2%−9% / +19%
TJGCTJGC Group Limited487.9 m—-130.2%-81.8%−6.5%+969% / unavailable
VSMEVS MEDIA Holdings Ltd36.9 m—-317.9%-114.5%−8.8%−95% / −99%
SWAGStran & Company, Inc.24.4 m396.00.2%0.0%+40.6%−35% / −2%
WPPWPP plc——-7.1%-1.6%−8.1%+42% / −37%
HAOHaoxi Health Technology Limited——-54.1%-17.4%+67.1%−100% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for GRPN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Groupon is a global two-sided marketplace linking consumers with local merchants for experiences, services and goods, increasingly through mobile devices. In 2026 the company is running an AI-native transformation called Project Foundry, with a restructuring plan that targets up to 400 position reductions and estimated annual savings that could support margins if execution keeps pace with demand. Revenue for fiscal 2025 was 498.4 million USD, and 2026 guidance points to revenue between 513 and 523 million USD.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A recognized brand and a large base of active customers are important assets for attracting merchants, and the company has shown growth in the North America Local category 1.
    • The net commission model and a high share of mobile transactions give a scalable revenue structure if costs are kept under control 1.
    • Project Foundry and the restructuring are designed to deliver savings and faster execution, and management reports early progress 3.

    Weaknesses

    • Revenue has grown more slowly than transaction volume because of promotional discounts, and marketing spend has grown faster than revenue 1.
    • The Goods category was reduced and some business lines declined in volume, showing dependence on the Local category 1.
    • In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported a loss from continuing operations, and units sold declined 3.

    Opportunities

    • If AI agents become an important discovery channel, the platform could gain traffic from assisted search and automated transactions 1.
    • Personalization and merchant tools could raise purchase frequency and the volume of relevant offers 2.
    • Recovery in organic and managed channels could support faster growth in the second half of 2026, according to management 3.

    Threats

    • Macroeconomic pressure and trade policy could reduce consumer spending and merchants' ability to offer deals 1.
    • Competitors with greater scale and resources could attract customers and merchants if Groupon does not sustain its advantage 1.
    • Rules on personal data and vouchers could raise compliance costs or restrict the sales model 1.

    Risks

    • Restructuring executionhigh

      The restructuring could disrupt operations, lose institutional knowledge and exceed estimated costs. The expected savings might not be realized on the announced timeline 12.

    • Slower revenue growthhigh

      Revenue has grown more slowly than transaction volume, and in the second quarter of 2026 it declined slightly. If this persists, guidance could be hard to reach 13.

    • High marketing costsmedium

      Marketing expense grew faster than revenue in North America, and the return on these investments is not assured 1.

    • International exposuremedium

      International operations depend on regional political stability and strict labor rules, which can slow restructuring and weigh on profitability 1.

    • Cybersecurity and datamedium

      Breaches of information systems or data privacy rules could lead to fines, customer loss and reputational damage 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If Project Foundry reduces costs and speeds execution, the company could turn the restructuring into a durable operating advantage 23.
    • Organic growth and the return of managed channels, reported for the second quarter of 2026, could support faster revenue growth in the second half of the year 3.
    • A large base of active customers and a recognized brand could let the company benefit from AI-agent discovery 12.

    What would break the thesis

    • The loss from continuing operations in the second quarter of 2026 and the decline in units sold suggest the transformation has not yet produced solid financial results 3.
    • If macroeconomic pressure and tariffs reduce consumer spending, guidance for 2026 could be hard to reach 13.
    • Competitors with greater resources and more aggressive use of AI could reduce the company's market share if the transformation is delayed 1.

    What to watch

    • Realization of restructuring savings and the pace of position reductionsQ3 2026
    • North America Local revenue growth compared with gross billings growthQ3 2026
    • Whether revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 are met2026
    • Progress of Project Foundry and any further cost-reduction actionsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Groupon describes its business as a global two-sided marketplace connecting consumers with merchants. Customers access the platform through mobile applications and localized groupon.com sites in thirteen countries. The company reports two segments, North America and International, and three categories: Local, Goods and Travel. Revenue comes from commissions on goods and services sold on behalf of third-party merchants, plus commissions on digital coupons used at retailers. In 2025, about 84% of global transactions were completed on mobile devices 1.

    Segments

    North America

    The North America segment generated 77.4% of consolidated revenue in 2025 1. Local gross billings rose 14.2%, while Local revenue grew 4.5%, with growth held back by promotional discounts and higher redemption rates 1. The Goods category was deliberately scaled back, and Travel remained smaller.

    International

    The International segment covers European and other markets served through localized sites. In the second quarter of 2026, International Local revenue rose 8%, or 9% excluding Giftcloud, helped by a new consumer platform and expanded seasonal supply in major cities 3. The segment remains exposed to regional political instability and to labor rules that can slow restructuring 1.

    Market context

    Groupon operates in the global market for local experiences and digital local commerce, where it competes with generalist platforms and with advertising providers that sell promotion to local merchants 1. The market is shifting toward mobile distribution and AI-assisted search, which could reshape how customers discover offers. Gross billings were 1,665.8 million USD in 2025, and in the first half of 2026 they reached 796.3 million USD, roughly flat year over year 12.

    Trends

    • AI-driven discoverymixed

      Management expects AI agents to become an important discovery and transaction channel, which could favor platforms with well-structured local offers. If this channel grows, Groupon could gain traffic, but the required investment is substantial.

    • Mobile consumptiontailwind

      The share of transactions on phones remains high, and mobile apps are the main acquisition channel. This supports the model but makes the company dependent on app store algorithms and the cost of traffic.

    • Macroeconomic pressureheadwind

      Inflation, higher labor costs, tariffs and labor shortages could reduce consumer discretionary spending and merchants' ability to offer deals. The effect on demand could be negative if these pressures persist.

    • Data and online commerce regulationheadwind

      Privacy rules, taxes and rules on gift-card-like vouchers could expand. Compliance costs could rise, and some rules could restrict how vouchers are sold.

    Competitive position

    Groupon competes with other marketplaces and with companies focused on specific local experience verticals. In the Goods and Travel categories, competitors have greater scale and larger customer bases. Competitors using AI for marketing and dynamic pricing could acquire customers more cheaply 1.

    • Generalist local commerce platforms

      Marketplaces competing for the same customers and merchants, some with larger customer bases and greater marketing resources 1.

    • Travel and goods platforms

      Companies with greater scale in the Goods and Travel categories that can offer competing prices and experiences 1.

    • Advertising providers for local merchants

      Platforms selling promotion services to businesses, which would let merchants attract customers without Groupon 1.

    • AI-driven dynamic pricing companies

      Competitors using machine learning to respond faster to shifts in consumer behavior 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Groupon, Inc. · 10 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Groupon, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Groupon, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.