olivLaw · US equity research
Cellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd HKPD
Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries · SIC 5122 · Vertical: Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries (SIC 5122)
Cellyan Biotechnology provides cross-border supply chain and procurement-distribution services for OTC pharmaceutical products sold through e-commerce in Mainland China, operating mainly through Hong Kong subsidiaries. Revenue fell 34% in fiscal 2026 to 13.4 million USD, and the company reported a net loss, which makes demand trends and competitive pressure important for the coming years.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Cellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd (HKPD) stock was 1.85 USD (−4.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 30.2 m USD, beta 3.15, 52-week range 0.10–2.19 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 70.8
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- -0.75 – 3.08
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.68 · band width 329.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.56 / 0.57
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.49 / 0.44
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1,678.8% | −1.1% | +1,679.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | +351.2% | −0.5% | +351.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | +184.6% | +4.4% | +180.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | +124.5% | +12.3% | +112.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +54.2% | +13.5% | +40.6 pp | −4.3% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | +18.9% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.6 m | 16.7 m | 20.3 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +32.9% | +21.7% |
| Net income | 998.2 k | 1.3 m | -27.1 k |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +33.2% | −102.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.15 | 0.18 | -0.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +23.3% | −101.7% |
| net % | 7.9% | 8.0% | -0.1% |
| Free cash flow | 1.6 m | -447.1 k | 499.3 k |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Mar 2025
- Cash
- 748.7 k USD
- Financial debt
- 1.9 m USD
- Net debt
- 1.1 m USD
- Equity
- 5.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 9.4 m USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.38x
- Current ratio
- 2.99x
- ROE
- -0.6%
- ROA
- -0.3%
- FCF margin
- 2.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.6 m | 16.7 m | 20.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 9.8 m | 13.1 m | 17.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 2.7 m | 3.6 m | 2.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Operating income | -1.8 m | -2.0 m | -2.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 74.0 k | 58.2 k | 66.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| EBITDA | -1.7 m ≈ | -1.9 m ≈ | -2.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 23.2 k | 82.8 k | 97.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.0 m | 1.5 m | 36.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Income tax | 22.6 k | 196.3 k | 63.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Net income | 998.2 k | 1.3 m | -27.1 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.15 | 0.18 | -0.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 6.8 m | 7.4 m | 10.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | — | 619.6 k | 748.7 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Receivables | — | 3.7 m | 4.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Inventories | — | 933.3 k | 560.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Current assets | — | 7.8 m | 8.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 103.2 k | 111.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Total assets | — | 8.7 m | 9.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 1.4 m | 1.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 34.7 k | 371.6 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 1.1 m | 1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 3.2 m | 2.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 4.4 m | 4.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Equity | 585.2 k | 4.3 m | 5.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 11.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.7 m | -394.3 k | 569.2 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Capex | 114.6 k | 52.7 k | 69.9 k | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.6 m ≈ | -447.1 k ≈ | 499.3 k ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -132.1 k | -40.8 k | -2.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.2 m | 537.3 k | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Aug 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 30.2 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.54 – 0.87 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)0.54 – 0.87 (Mid 0.66)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 581.3 k USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -35.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| Net margin · Quality | -0.1% | 50 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -23.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.0x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.7% | 21 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial21/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Cellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd (HKPD). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-03-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 20.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 21.7%; net margin -0.1%; ROE -0.6%.
The estimated value range is 0.54–0.87 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.66 USD, the price of 1.85 USD leaves a potential of -64.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -178.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 3.0x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -35.2%
- Interest coverage: -23.4x
- FCF yield: 1.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries (SIC 5122) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCKMcKESSON CORPORATION | 123.5 bn | 27.5 | — | 1.1% | +12.4% | +21% / +127% |
| CORCencora, Inc. | 67.6 bn | 26.3 | 104.3% | 0.8% | +9.3% | −4% / +74% |
| CAHCardinal Health, Inc. | 60.9 bn | 36.2 | — | 0.7% | +14.2% | +23% / +145% |
| HLFHerbalife Ltd. | 1.6 bn | 9.1 | — | 3.4% | +0.9% | +20% / +19% |
| NUSNu Skin Enterprises, Inc. | 242.9 m | — | -32.5% | -15.7% | −14.3% | −50% / −71% |
| COSMCosmos Health Inc. | 33.0 m | — | -104.0% | -33.1% | +19.9% | −49% / −69% |
| HKPDCellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd | 30.2 m | — | -0.6% | -0.1% | +21.7% | +54% / unavailable |
| ESYNHwh International Inc. | 11.6 m | — | -88.9% | -680.0% | −30.8% | −4% / −97% |
| MEDSDataMeds AI, Inc. | 4.6 m | — | — | -1,100.3% | +28.7% | −95% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for HKPD from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (23 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026).
In brief
Cellyan Biotechnology provides cross-border supply chain and procurement-distribution services for OTC pharmaceutical products sold through e-commerce in Mainland China, operating mainly through Hong Kong subsidiaries. Revenue fell 34% in fiscal 2026 1 to 13.4 million USD 1, and the company reported a net loss, which makes demand trends and competitive pressure important for the coming years.
SWOT
Strengths
- The proprietary order and warehouse management platform provides advanced operational integration 1.
- The necessary licences for import, export and storage are in place, and the company works actively with Hong Kong authorities 1.
- The integrated offering, from procurement to final delivery, simplifies the supply chain for customers 1.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Revenue decline and net losshigh
Revenue fell 34% in fiscal 2026, and the company reported a net loss of 1,135,963 USD 1. If the trend continues, the ability to fund operations could be affected.
- Dependence on large customershigh
The company relies on a few important logistics partners and merchants, and maintaining these relationships is a key driver of results 1.
- Cross-border regulationmedium
OTC products are subject to different rules across countries, and regulatory changes could affect importing, storage or delivery 1.
- Margin pressuremedium
The price-reduction policy adopted to remain competitive reduced gross margin, and this trend could continue if competition intensifies 1.
- Listing and compliance costslow
Expenses linked to public listing status and investor relations have risen, which could affect profitability 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The reported leading position in the supply chain segment and an integrated operating system could support a recovery in volumes if demand for cross-border OTC products keeps growing 1.
- Relationships with major logistics platforms and merchants could provide a stable base of orders 1.
- If the company reduces costs through economies of scale, gross margin could recover to a better level 1.
What would break the thesis
- The revenue decline and net loss in fiscal 2026 show that competitive pressure is already affecting results 1.
- If price reductions continue, margins could stay weak and limit internal funding capacity 1.
- Dependence on a few large customers makes results vulnerable to any change in those commercial relationships 1.
What to watch
- Revenue trends in the two divisions after the declineNext 10-K
- Gross margin development following the pricing policy2027
- Stability of relationships with key customers and logistics partners2027
- Trend in administrative expenses and public listing costsNext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (21 Oct 2026), 6-K (24 Sept 2026), 6-K (23 Sept 2026), 6-K (10 Sept 2026).
The business
The company, incorporated in the Cayman Islands and listed on Nasdaq after its January 2025 IPO, operates through two Hong Kong subsidiaries: Joint Cross Border, which provides supply chain services, and V-Alliance, which procures and distributes OTC products to merchants on Chinese e-commerce platforms and to pharmaceutical distributors 1. Services cover pre-consultation, product information review, HKDOH enlisting, import and export permits, warehousing, packaging and end-to-end delivery 1. Its proprietary order and warehouse system, 'Extraordinary Supply Chain V2.0', is presented as an operational advantage 1. Main customers include logistics partners such as CaiNiao and merchants on Tmall, Meituan, Pinduoduo and JD.com 1.
In fiscal 2026 the two divisions together produced all of the company's revenue, and consignment sales, which were not continued in that year, had been a minor item 1. The company states it is a member of pharmaceutical distributor associations in Hong Kong and China 1.
Management indicated that the cost structure and pricing policy evolved under competitive pressure: gross margin declined in fiscal 2026, and the company stopped doing business with some customers characterized by long receivable aging and low margins 1.
Segments
Market context
The company operates in the supply chain market for cross-border OTC pharmaceutical products sold through e-commerce in Mainland China. According to a report cited by the company, Joint Cross Border ranked first in this sector by revenue in 2022 1. Management describes demand for overseas OTC products as growing, but fiscal 2026 results show that this growth did not automatically translate into stable revenue 1.
The market is subject to regulations that differ from country to country, and the ability to navigate the regulatory framework and obtain the necessary licences acts as a barrier to entry for new competitors 1.
Trends
- Growing demand for cross-border OTC productstailwind
Management believes Mainland Chinese consumer demand for overseas OTC medicines continues to grow, which could support long-term volumes if competitive pressure eases 1.
- Competitive pressure on pricesheadwind
The company intentionally lowered selling prices to stay competitive, which reduced gross margin in fiscal 2026 1. If this pressure persists, margins could remain below earlier levels.
- Dependence on a few large customersmixed
Retaining key customers and logistics platform partners is an important part of the business model 1. Losing such customers would have a considerable effect on volumes.
- Public listing and compliance costsheadwind
Nasdaq listing status has increased spending on professional services and investor relations 1. These costs could continue to weigh on profitability if revenue does not grow enough.
Competitive position
Management describes a competitive sector in which several supply chain and distribution providers seek customers among e-commerce platforms and merchants 1. Competitive pressure was cited as the main reason for the fiscal 2026 revenue decline 1.
The supplied sources do not name specific competitors, so the competitive profile is described only in general terms, without comparative data on market share or the performance of other firms 1.
- Local cross-border supply chain service providers
Companies offering similar services in Mainland China, not individually identified in the source.
- Hong Kong pharmaceutical distributors
Firms in the same region competing for OTC product procurement and distribution, mentioned in general context.
- Logistics platforms and e-commerce merchants
Partners that can negotiate directly with suppliers or turn to other service firms.
- Overseas OTC product suppliers
Foreign manufacturers and distributors that can influence the price and availability of products.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)23 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)10 Sept 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)07 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)27 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)18 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)16 Jan 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Dec 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2026-03-31 · SEC / Cellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd · 07 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.