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olivLaw · US equity research

Herbalife Ltd. HLF

Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries · SIC 5122 · Vertical: Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries (SIC 5122)

15.31USD+6.47% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Herbalife is a global nutrition and wellness company that sells products through its network of independent members in a direct-selling model. With net sales of 5.0375 billion USD in 2025, it matters now because of four consecutive quarters of net sales growth and currency pressure on the 2026 outlook.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) stock was 15.31 USD (+6.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.6 bn USD, P/E 9.1 on diluted EPS of 1.68 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.96%, beta 0.88, 52-week range 8.24–19.96 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.4 bn USD (+6.0% YoY), net income of 58.8 m USD (+36.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.55 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.6 bn USD
shares as of 26 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.1
Diluted EPS TTM 1.68 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
11.01%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.96%
DPS 12m 0.30
Beta (2y)
0.88
Volatility (1y) 59%
52-week range
8.2419.96

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
71.5
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
12.47 – 15.00
above the upper band · %B 1.12 · band width 18.4%
SMA 50 / 200
12.81 / 13.97
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.34 / 0.27
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+22.5%−1.1%+23.6 pp—
3 months+21.5%−0.5%+22.0 pp—
6 months−6.9%+4.4%−11.3 pp—
Year to date+18.8%+12.3%+6.5 pp—
1 year+91.9%+13.5%+78.3 pp−4.3%
3 years+15.5%+76.4%−61.0 pp+2.8%
5 years−64.6%+63.7%−128.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−44.9%
20 Feb 2026 → 31 Aug 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−88.7%
19 Jan 2022 → 12 Feb 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
−18.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.4 bn USD
+6.0% YoY
Net income
58.8 m USD
+36.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.55
+31.0% YoY
net / operating
4.4% / 10.3%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue1.2 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn1.4 bn
Cost of revenue267.5 m265.2 m276.9 m284.2 m288.3 m291.1 m296.3 m306.1 m
Gross profit939.9 m956.5 m982.2 m989.5 m994.7 m1.0 bn1.0 bn1.0 bn
SG&A436.9 m431.9 m447.9 m447.6 m————
Operating income106.5 m122.8 m132.6 m125.8 m99.8 m138.4 m128.3 m138.5 m
Depreciation & amortisation29.0 m30.7 m30.5 m ≈30.7 m ≈29.3 m29.4 m31.4 m ≈30.5 m ≈
Interest expense66.2 m52.0 m53.6 m51.0 m57.8 m46.8 m37.4 m31.9 m
Pre-tax income52.6 m70.8 m79.0 m74.8 m50.5 m91.6 m-3.7 m106.6 m
Income tax-125.3 m20.4 m29.8 m31.7 m-34.6 m30.4 m22.8 m49.5 m
Net income177.9 m50.4 m49.3 m43.2 m85.4 m61.9 m-26.3 m58.8 m
Diluted EPS1.74 ≈0.490.480.420.81 ≈0.57-0.250.55
Operating cash flow69.6 m200.0 k96.0 m ≈138.8 m ≈98.3 m113.8 m32.9 m ≈151.3 m ≈
Capex25.7 m18.3 m22.8 m ≈20.8 m ≈18.5 m10.9 m11.3 m ≈18.5 m ≈
Share repurchases2.6 m2.2 m4.6 m ≈1.3 m ≈100.0 k700.0 k9.3 m ≈200.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 45 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 2.7, median 10.1, max 50.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue4.9 bn4.9 bn5.5 bn5.8 bn5.2 bn5.1 bn5.0 bn5.0 bn
Revenue YoY+10.5%−0.3%+13.6%+4.7%−10.3%−2.7%−1.4%+0.9%
Net income296.6 m311.0 m372.6 m447.2 m321.3 m142.2 m254.3 m228.3 m
Net income YoY+38.7%+4.9%+19.8%+20.0%−28.2%−55.7%+78.8%−10.2%
Diluted EPS1.982.202.774.133.231.422.502.20
Diluted EPS YoY+53.5%+11.1%+25.9%+49.1%−21.8%−56.0%+76.1%−12.0%
net %6.1%6.4%6.7%7.7%6.2%2.8%5.1%4.5%
Free cash flow564.4 m351.4 m516.6 m308.9 m196.1 m222.5 m163.4 m252.9 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
353.1 m USD
Financial debt
2.0 bn USD
Net debt
1.6 bn USD
Equity
-509.4 m USD
Total assets
2.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
1.13x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
8.3%
FCF margin
5.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
5.1 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.9 bn
2024
3.9 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.9 bn
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2025verified

Operating income
2023
356.4 m
2024
385.9 m
2025
481.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
113.3 m
2024
121.4 m
2025
121.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
469.7 m ≈
2024
507.3 m ≈
2025
602.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
165.9 m
2024
218.3 m
2025
214.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
203.0 m
2024
169.4 m
2025
275.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
60.8 m
2024
-84.9 m
2025
47.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
142.2 m
2024
254.3 m
2025
228.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.42
2024
2.50
2025
2.20

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
100.2 m
2024
101.6 m
2025
103.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
575.2 m
2024
415.3 m
2025
353.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
505.2 m
2024
475.4 m
2025
511.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
506.5 m
2024
460.2 m
2025
447.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
95.4 m
2024
87.7 m
2025
100.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
314.0 m
2024
312.3 m
2025
315.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.7 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
84.0 m
2024
70.0 m
2025
99.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
309.5 m
2024
283.5 m
2025
20.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
3.9 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-1.1 bn
2024
-801.1 m
2025
-509.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
357.5 m
2024
285.4 m
2025
333.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
135.0 m
2024
122.0 m
2025
80.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
222.5 m ≈
2024
163.4 m ≈
2025
252.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-134.8 m
2024
-84.6 m
2025
-108.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-148.3 m
2024
-335.3 m
2025
-295.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
11.0 m
2024
8.3 m
2025
8.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-1.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
24.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-10.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-9.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-12.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-12.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
54.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
77.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
6.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
27.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
1.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
396.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
59.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
337.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
187.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
63.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
158 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
28 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
3.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
8.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
6.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
0.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
4.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
21.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 56 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

15.31 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
9.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 26 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 02 Nov 2026
verified 2873derived 218

Score by group

  • Valuation95
  • Balance sheet35
  • Quality100
  • Growth0
  • Returns9

Estimated value range

Low
53.24
USD per share
Mid
66.71
USD per share
High
73.99
USD per share
Price: 15.31 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 335.7% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 77.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.94 – 142.79 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)61.17 – 142.79 (Mid 87.05)
    WACC 6.6% · starting FCFF 462.7 m USD · terminal value share of EV 82%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA68.18 – 94.27 (Mid 87.80)
    4 companies used · median multiple 17.2x · quartiles 13.9x – 18.2x
    CAH, COR, MCK, NUS
  • Peers: P/E45.32 – 53.70 (Mid 46.36)
    3 companies used · median multiple 27.5x · quartiles 26.9x – 31.9x
    CAH, COR, MCK
  • Dividend discount (DDM)3.94 – 5.30 (Mid 4.52)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries (SIC 5122)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 56/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality3.4%100 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality187.5%100 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-1.1%0 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-12.0%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet2.4x45 (on a fixed band)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.9x22 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x33 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation9.1x95 (on a fixed band)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation5.0x91 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation21.0%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.6%9 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet35/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial9/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

HERBALIFE LTD. (HLF). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 5.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.9%; net margin 3.4%; net debt/EBITDA 2.4x.

The estimated value range is 53.24–73.99 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 66.71 USD, the price of 15.31 USD leaves a potential of 335.7% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 77.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 3.4%
  • FCF conversion: 187.5%
  • P/E (TTM): 9.1x
  • EV/EBITDA: 5.0x
  • FCF yield: 21.0%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -1.1%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -12.0%
  • Interest coverage: 2.9x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.6%
  • The valuation methods diverge

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Wholesale-Drugs, Proprietaries & Druggists' Sundries (SIC 5122) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
9.1x
vertical median 27.5x
below median (−67.0%)
EV/EBITDA
5.0x
vertical median 17.2x
below median (−70.9%)
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 0.4x
below median (−18.0%)
P/B
—
vertical median 4.2x
ROE
—
vertical median -32.5%
Net margin
3.4%
vertical median -7.9%
above median
EBIT margin
9.6%
vertical median -0.8%
above median
Revenue YoY
0.9%
vertical median 13.3%
below median (−93.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
2.4x
vertical median 0.6x
above median (+341.3%)
Dividend yield
2.0%
vertical median 0.7%
above median (+171.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MCKMcKESSON CORPORATION123.5 bn27.5—1.1%+12.4%+21% / +127%
CORCencora, Inc.67.6 bn26.3104.3%0.8%+9.3%−4% / +74%
CAHCardinal Health, Inc.60.9 bn36.2—0.7%+14.2%+23% / +145%
HLFHerbalife Ltd.1.6 bn9.1—3.4%+0.9%+92% / +15%
NUSNu Skin Enterprises, Inc.242.9 m—-32.5%-15.7%−14.3%−50% / −71%
COSMCosmos Health Inc.33.0 m—-104.0%-33.1%+19.9%−49% / −69%
HKPDCellyan Biotechnology Co., Ltd30.2 m—-0.6%-0.1%+21.7%+87% / unavailable
ESYNHwh International Inc.11.6 m—-88.9%-680.0%−30.8%−4% / −97%
MEDSDataMeds AI, Inc.4.6 m——-1,100.3%+28.7%−95% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for HLF from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
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Bull
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
8.69
Total return -43% · Per year -43%
15.41
Total return 1% · Per year 1%
23.27
Total return 52% · Per year 52%
3 years
7.51
Total return -51% · Per year -21%
15.07
Total return -2% · Per year -1%
25.13
Total return 64% · Per year 18%
5 years
6.50
Total return -58% · Per year -16%
14.75
Total return -4% · Per year -1%
27.13
Total return 77% · Per year 12%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 3.77
  • Net margin± 2.64
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.29
  • Annual dilution± 0.22

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).

In brief

Herbalife is a global nutrition and wellness company that sells products through its network of independent members in a direct-selling model. With net sales of 5.0375 billion USD in 2025 13, it matters now because of four consecutive quarters of net sales growth 3 and currency pressure on the 2026 outlook.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a global member network and a well-recognized product line with an established lead product 1.
  • Net sales grew for four consecutive quarters, and cost management has been generally solid 3.
  • The direct-selling model provides personal contact with customers that is hard for competitors to replicate 1.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on one main product makes sales sensitive to a drop in demand for it 1.
  • The sales leader retention rate is moderate, which points to high member turnover 1.
  • The China market contracted in 2026, and member compensation costs remain high 23.

Opportunities

  • Expanding personalized nutrition and new products such as Bioniq GO could open new customer segments 3.
  • Asia Pacific and Latin America grew strongly and could sustain sales growth 3.
  • Health and longevity trends may support new lines such as Life I/O 3.

Threats

  • Regulation and scrutiny of direct selling could impose new costs or restrictions 1.
  • Trade tariffs and energy volatility could raise production and logistics costs 2.
  • Negative publicity could damage the brand and the ability to attract members 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on the member networkhigh

    Sales depend almost entirely on independent members, and losing a large number of them could affect results 1.

  • Regulation and the FTC Consent Orderhigh

    Compliance with the FTC Consent Order and local rules may limit compensation changes and could bring sanctions 1.

  • Currencymedium

    A stronger dollar reduced reported revenue and led to a revised 2026 outlook 3.

  • Energy and logistics costsmedium

    Higher energy and transport prices could reduce margins if they cannot be passed on in prices 2.

  • Concentration on one productmedium

    One product accounts for a significant share of sales, and lower demand for it could affect results 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Four consecutive quarters of sales growth and new personalized product launches point to resilience 3.
  • The global member network and brand recognition provide an advantage that is hard to copy 1.
  • Health and active-lifestyle trends could support demand over the long term 1.

What would break the thesis

  • The 2026 outlook was cut because of currency effects, showing sensitivity to exchange rates 3.
  • Reliance on direct-selling rules and the member network remains a structural vulnerability 1.
  • Declines in China and EMEA show not all markets are stable 3.

What to watch

  • Constant-currency net sales trendQ3 2026
  • Delivery against the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
  • Adoption of Bioniq GO and Life I/O products2026
  • CFO transition effective January 20272027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (02 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (02 Nov 2026).

The business

Herbalife sells nutrition products through independent members who provide personalized coaching to their customers, using a direct-selling model worldwide 1. In 2025, weight management made up 54.5% of net sales and targeted nutrition 30.0% 1. The company has about 6.4 million members and operates in 95 markets 1.

The company's model relies on Members for substantially all sales, which allows one-on-one contact with customers 1. Member compensation is a significant operating expense and is recorded within selling expenses 1.

In China the company sells through independent service providers and sales representatives, reflecting local regulation 1. This structure differs from its model elsewhere 1.

Segments

Weight management

This category includes meal replacements, protein shakes and drink mixes, such as Formula 1 1. Formula 1 is the best-selling product line, at about 25% of 2025 net sales 1.

Targeted nutrition

This category covers functional beverages and supplements with natural ingredients, such as Herbal Aloe Concentrate and Niteworks 1. It has been one of the steadier sources of sales in 2026 13.

Market context

The 2026 outlook was narrowed, with adjusted EBITDA guidance of 670 to 690 million USD, lower than before because of currency effects 3. The company launched Bioniq GO in eleven European markets and the US 3.

Trends

  • Personalized nutritiontailwind

    The launch of Bioniq GO and the Pro2col platform suggests personalization could become a differentiator if member adoption grows 3. The effect depends on execution and consumer acceptance.

  • Obesity and interest in fitnesstailwind

    The company links its growth to trends such as the obesity epidemic and interest in healthy, active living 1. These trends could support long-term demand.

  • Currency and inflationheadwind

    A stronger dollar created currency headwinds in the second quarter and led to a revised reported outlook 3. Inflation and energy prices may raise production and logistics costs 2.

  • Regulation and the direct-selling modelmixed

    The FTC Consent Order and marketing rules may limit changes to the compensation plan and affect the member network 1. The effect is mixed: it protects stability but restricts flexibility.

Competitive position

The company competes in nutrition with firms such as BellRing Brands, The Hain Celestial Group, Nestlé and The Simply Good Foods Company 1. In direct selling, competitors include Medifast, Nu Skin, USANA and Amway 1. It also competes for member recruitment 1.

The company says its edge is daily consumption through Nutrition Clubs and Daily Methods of Operation, which aim to build customer loyalty 1. It acknowledges it cannot exert the same control over members as over employees 1.

  • BellRing BrandsBRBR

    Nutrition competitor listed in the US 1.

  • The Simply Good Foods CompanySMPL

    Competitor in nutrition and protein products 1.

  • Nu Skin EnterprisesNUS

    Competitor in direct-selling wellness products 1.

  • USANA Health SciencesUSNA

    Competitor in direct-selling nutrition 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 15 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 02 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report02 Nov 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report02 Nov 2026
  • Current report31 Aug 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers
  • Current report05 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report05 Aug 2026
  • Current report06 May 2026
    Results of operations · Shareholder vote · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report06 May 2026
  • Current report01 May 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Item 2.04 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report16 Apr 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report14 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Herbalife Ltd. · 18 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Herbalife Ltd. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Herbalife Ltd. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.