olivLaw · US equity research
BellRing Brands, Inc. BRBR
Food and Kindred Products · SIC 2000 · Vertical: Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000)
BellRing Brands is a convenient nutrition company whose main brand, Premier Protein, dominates the ready-to-drink protein shake segment, while Dymatize covers sports nutrition. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 sales rose, but gross margin fell under input cost and tariff pressure and full-year guidance was lowered, which makes the margin trajectory the main thing to watch. The company runs an asset-light model with outsourced production, which makes it sensitive to supplier capacity.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR) stock was 10.22 USD (+8.49% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.2 bn USD, P/E 7.2 on diluted EPS of 1.42 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.63, 52-week range 7.40–33.30 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 570.4 m USD (+4.2% YoY), net income of 34.2 m USD (+62.9% YoY), diluted EPS 0.29 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.9
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.17 – 10.19
- above the upper band · %B 1.02 · band width 22.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.09 / 13.24
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.21 / 0.11
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +32.2% | −1.1% | +33.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −19.0% | −0.5% | −18.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −7.9% | +4.4% | −12.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −61.8% | +12.3% | −74.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −66.3% | +13.5% | −79.8 pp | −44.5% |
| 3 years | −77.4% | +76.4% | −153.9 pp | −65.9% |
| 5 years | −61.1% | +63.7% | −124.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 555.8 m | 532.9 m | 588.0 m | 547.5 m | 648.2 m | 537.3 m | 598.7 m | 570.4 m |
| Cost of revenue | 350.7 m | 333.3 m | 398.2 m | 353.9 m | 460.8 m | 376.5 m | 437.0 m | 407.1 m |
| Gross profit | 205.1 m | 199.6 m | 189.8 m | 193.6 m | 187.4 m | 160.8 m | 161.7 m | 163.3 m |
| SG&A | 88.7 m | 80.1 m | 90.5 m | 144.5 m | 80.9 m | 78.0 m | 91.5 m | 93.7 m |
| Operating income | 112.1 m | 115.3 m | 95.1 m | 44.8 m | 102.2 m | 78.5 m | 66.0 m | 65.4 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.7 m | 4.6 m | 4.6 m ≈ | 4.6 m ≈ | 4.8 m | 4.9 m | 4.9 m ≈ | 5.2 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 14.5 m | 14.4 m | 16.5 m | 18.4 m | 19.1 m | 20.0 m | — | — |
| Pre-tax income | 97.6 m | 100.9 m | 78.6 m | 26.4 m | 83.1 m | 58.5 m | 45.9 m | 45.5 m |
| Income tax | 25.9 m | 24.0 m | 19.9 m | 5.4 m | 23.5 m | 14.8 m | 12.0 m | 11.3 m |
| Net income | 71.7 m | 76.9 m | 58.7 m | 21.0 m | 59.6 m | 43.7 m | 33.9 m | 34.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.55 ≈ | 0.59 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 0.48 ≈ | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Operating cash flow | 40.1 m | 3.0 m | 48.2 m ≈ | 40.3 m ≈ | 169.1 m | -3.1 m | -11.2 m ≈ | 79.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.2 m | 1.3 m | 600.0 k ≈ | 1.8 m ≈ | 1.0 m | 4.2 m | 1.8 m ≈ | 2.1 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | — | 11.8 m | 173.1 m ≈ | 83.0 m ≈ | — | 96.9 m | 30.3 m ≈ | 10.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 27-quarter history (min 9.1, median 34.3, max 141.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 827.5 m | 854.4 m | 988.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.3% | +15.7% | +26.2% | +10.0% | +21.5% | +19.8% | +16.1% |
| Net income | 0 | 0 | 23.5 m | 27.6 m | 82.3 m | 165.5 m | 246.5 m | 216.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +17.4% | +198.2% | +101.1% | +48.9% | −12.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 1.23 | 1.86 | 1.68 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | +16.7% | +25.7% | +39.8% | +51.2% | −9.7% |
| net % | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.3% | 9.3% |
| Free cash flow | 136.2 m | 95.1 m | 95.1 m | 224.5 m | 19.2 m | 213.8 m | 197.8 m | 255.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
Loading…
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 71.8 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.0 bn USD
- Equity
- -453.9 m USD
- Total assets
- 941.0 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 2.35x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 24.3%
- FCF margin
- 11.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 988.3 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 650.3 m | 860.9 m | 949.7 m | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 338.0 m | 386.2 m | 421.8 m | 530.2 m | 707.3 m | 770.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Research & development | 9.4 m | 11.2 m | 11.4 m | 12.0 m | 14.3 m | 16.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| SG&A | 151.8 m | 167.1 m | 189.7 m | 216.3 m | 284.6 m | 396.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | 164.0 m | 168.0 m | 212.4 m | 287.3 m | 387.7 m | 357.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 25.3 m | 53.7 m | 21.3 m | 28.3 m | 36.5 m | 18.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 189.3 m ≈ | 221.7 m ≈ | 233.7 m ≈ | 315.6 m ≈ | 424.2 m ≈ | 376.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 54.7 m | 43.2 m | 49.2 m | 66.9 m | 58.3 m | 68.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 109.3 m | 123.2 m | 145.6 m | 220.4 m | 329.4 m | 289.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 9.2 m | 8.8 m | 29.6 m | 54.9 m | 82.9 m | 72.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 23.5 m | 27.6 m | 82.3 m | 165.5 m | 246.5 m | 216.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.88 | 1.23 | 1.86 | 1.68 | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 39.5 m | 39.7 m | 93.8 m | 134.1 m | 132.3 m | 128.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 48.7 m | 152.6 m | 35.8 m | 48.4 m | 70.8 m | 71.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 83.1 m | 103.9 m | 173.3 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Feb 2023verified |
| Inventories | 150.5 m | 117.9 m | 199.8 m | 194.3 m | 286.1 m | 330.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 290.2 m | 388.1 m | 421.3 m | 424.2 m | 592.7 m | 665.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 10.2 m | 8.9 m | 8.0 m | 8.5 m | 9.2 m | 19.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 65.9 m | 65.9 m | 65.9 m | 65.9 m | 65.9 m | 65.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 274.3 m | 223.1 m | 203.3 m | 176.8 m | 141.8 m | 125.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 653.5 m | 696.5 m | 707.2 m | 691.6 m | 837.0 m | 941.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 56.7 m | 91.9 m | 93.8 m | 89.0 m | 121.0 m | 119.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 63.8 m | 116.3 m | 0 | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Nov 2022verified |
| Long-term debt | 622.6 m | 481.2 m | 929.5 m | 856.8 m | 833.1 m | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 153.1 m | 251.3 m | 143.5 m | 150.2 m | 203.7 m | 282.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 814.5 m | 762.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | -2.2 bn † | -3.1 bn † | -376.2 m † | -323.5 m † | -205.9 m † | -453.9 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 97.2 m | 226.1 m | 21.0 m | 215.6 m | 199.6 m | 260.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 2.1 m | 1.6 m | 1.8 m | 1.8 m | 1.8 m | 4.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 95.1 m ≈ | 224.5 m ≈ | 19.2 m ≈ | 213.8 m ≈ | 197.8 m ≈ | 255.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -2.1 m | -1.6 m | -1.8 m | -1.8 m | -1.8 m | -4.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -52.6 m | -120.9 m | -135.0 m | -201.7 m | -175.1 m | -238.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 18 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 0 | 42.8 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Nov 2022verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 80 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet43
- Growth100
- Valuation91
- Quality92
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 16.45 – 101.01 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)46.58 – 101.01 (Mid 64.57)WACC 6.9% · starting FCFF 279.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 82%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA16.45 – 30.13 (Mid 23.19)4 companies used · median multiple 11.4x · quartiles 9.0x – 13.8xBGS, CPB, FLO, MDLZ
- Peers: P/E28.85 – 41.99 (Mid 34.37)4 companies used · median multiple 24.3x · quartiles 20.4x – 29.6xCPB, FLO, MDLZ, UCFI
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 80/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 7.3% | 84 (vs peers) | 8% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 131.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 19.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 24.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.3x | 21 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.2x | 42 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.2x | 100 (vs peers) | 13% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 6.8x | 74 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 18.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet43/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 16.1%; net margin 7.3%; net debt/EBITDA 3.3x.
The estimated value range is 28.85–41.99 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 34.37 USD, the price of 10.22 USD leaves a potential of 236.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 70.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 80/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 7.3%
- FCF conversion: 131.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 19.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 24.1%
- Current ratio: 2.3x
- P/E (TTM): 7.2x
- EV/EBITDA: 6.8x
- FCF yield: 18.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.3x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | 85.3 bn | 21.2 | 15.5% | 10.2% | +5.8% | +17% / −5% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -24.9% | -17.0% | −2.9% | −14% / −46% |
| CPBThe Campbell’s Company | 6.9 bn | 17.8 | 10.4% | 4.1% | −5.0% | −24% / −42% |
| OTLYOatly Group AB | 5.1 bn | — | -247.9% | -17.7% | +4.7% | −34% / −55% |
| BYNDBeyond Meat, Inc. | 3.7 bn | — | — | 111.7% | −15.6% | −76% / −97% |
| STKHSteakholder Foods Ltd. | 2.3 bn | — | -266.3% | -112,470.0% | unavailable | −95% / −100% |
| FLOFlowers Foods Inc | 1.5 bn | 27.3 | 4.0% | 1.1% | unavailable | −34% / −66% |
| BRBRBellRing Brands, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 7.2 | — | 7.3% | +16.1% | −66% / −77% |
| SMPLThe Simply Good Foods Company | 1.2 bn | — | -9.6% | -11.5% | −6.5% | −32% / −66% |
| VITLVital Farms, Inc. | 450.8 m | — | -7.4% | -3.0% | +25.3% | −68% / −21% |
| UCFICN Healthy Food Tech Group Corp. | 287.8 m | 36.7 | 39.2% | 24.6% | +144.6% | −46% / unavailable |
| BGSB&G Foods, Inc. | 208.9 m | — | -15.8% | -4.0% | unavailable | −44% / −72% |
| CHSNChanson International Holding | 131.0 m | 112.0 | 0.5% | 1.0% | +0.2% | −99% / −100% |
| SOWGSow Good Inc. | 44.4 m | — | -346.4% | — | unavailable | −75% / −98% |
| MLECMoolec Science SA | 32.7 m | — | -86.4% | -130.0% | +521.5% | −86% / −100% |
| LSFLaird Superfood, Inc. | 26.9 m | — | -22.9% | -3.4% | +15.2% | −12% / +129% |
| BOFBranchOut Food Inc. | 25.9 m | — | -202.6% | -56.8% | +113.3% | −45% / +8% |
| BRLSBorealis Foods Inc. | 24.7 m | — | — | -56.5% | +8.2% | −38% / −90% |
| HAINThe Hain Celestial Group, Inc. | 13.7 m | — | -96.8% | -22.5% | −13.2% | −86% / −99% |
| DDCDDC Enterprise Limited | — | — | -124.4% | -123.3% | +4.6% | −96% / −100% |
| NOMDNomad Foods Limited | — | — | 5.3% | 4.5% | −2.2% | +2% / −22% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for BRBR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.95 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 12.23 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 18.34 Total return 79% · Per year 79% |
| 3 years | 8.24 Total return -19% · Per year -7% | 16.17 Total return 58% · Per year 17% | 26.41 Total return 158% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 9.77 Total return -4% · Per year -1% | 21.38 Total return 109% · Per year 16% | 38.03 Total return 272% · Per year 30% |
- Exit P/E± 4.04
- Net margin± 2.83
- Annual revenue growth± 2.11
- Annual dilution± 0.24
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
BellRing Brands is a convenient nutrition company whose main brand, Premier Protein, dominates the ready-to-drink protein shake segment, while Dymatize covers sports nutrition. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 sales rose, but gross margin fell under input cost and tariff pressure and full-year guidance was lowered, which makes the margin trajectory the main thing to watch. The company runs an asset-light model with outsourced production, which makes it sensitive to supplier capacity.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Premier Protein brand holds a dominant position in ready-to-drink shakes, and dollar consumption of the shakes grew in the third quarter.
- The asset-light model, with outsourced production and low capital expenditure, gives operational flexibility.
- A two-brand portfolio covers both everyday nutrition and sports, with growing international reach through Dymatize.
Weaknesses
- Heavy reliance on RTD shakes and a few large customers increases exposure to changes in orders and commercial terms.
- Gross margin fell significantly in fiscal 2026, and the company has yet to show a clear answer to cost pressure.
- Production depends on a few third-party suppliers, and quality and packaging incidents have led to inventory charges.
Opportunities
- Rising interest in protein and convenient nutrition could support long-term demand if the brands keep differentiating themselves.
- Expanding international distribution, especially for Dymatize, could offset some of the weakness in the US.
- Cost optimization and productivity measures announced by management could improve margins if executed well.
Threats
- Tariffs and unstable global trade could raise input costs and strain the supply chain.
- Competition from private label and large players could pressure prices and market share.
- Geopolitical conflict that has pushed up energy prices could amplify inflation and weigh on consumer demand.
Risks
- Dependence on RTD shakeshigh
Most sales come from RTD shakes, so a decline in that category would strongly affect results.
- Concentrated productionhigh
One third-party manufacturer supplies nearly half of the Premier Protein shakes, and part of that output comes from a single facility. A disruption could limit product availability.
- Cost pressure and marginshigh
Raw material, packaging, freight and tariff costs have reduced gross margin in fiscal 2026, and guidance was lowered.
- Customer concentrationmedium
A small number of large customers generate most sales, which can give them bargaining power over prices and terms.
- Debt and financing costmedium
Greater use of the revolving credit facility raised interest expense, and available borrowing capacity has declined.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Premier Protein keeps its leading position and consumption continues to grow, the company could recover margins once cost pressure eases.
- The asset-light model and the optimization program announced by management could support cash generation.
- Dymatize shows strong growth in both prices and volumes, and international expansion could become a second growth engine.
What would break the thesis
- If input costs and tariffs persist, margins could stay below earlier levels, and guidance could be lowered again.
- Dependence on one third-party manufacturer and a few large customers could expose the company to disruptions or price pressure.
- Higher interest costs and greater use of credit could limit financial flexibility if earnings keep declining.
What to watch
- Gross margin trend and input cost pressure, including the impact of tariffsQ4 2026
- Delivery against the updated fiscal 2026 guidance for net sales and Adjusted EBITDAfiscal 2026
- The new CEO's strategy on brand investment and pricing2027
- Debt level and use of the revolving credit facilitynext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The business model is asset-light: BellRing has no major plants apart from one facility in Voerde, Germany, which makes bars and gels for the EU, Switzerland and the UK. Most products, including all RTD shakes, are made by third-party manufacturers under tolling contracts with minimum volume commitments. Distribution runs through third-party warehouses, and sales are concentrated among a few large customers such as Walmart, Costco and Amazon. Capital expenditure is low, below 1% of net sales, which makes working capital and input cost management essential.
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026 the results release was accompanied by a change of chief executive, with Michael Axelrod taking the role effective July 29, 2026. The company updated its fiscal 2026 outlook, reflecting cost pressures and inventory charges. It remains to be seen whether the new leadership will change priorities for investment or pricing.
Market context
The category is highly competitive, with pressure from branded food and beverage companies, private label and store brands, and nutrition brands. Seasonality matters: the first fiscal quarter is typically weak because of the holiday period, and sales rise through the rest of the year on retailer promotions.
Trends
- Input cost pressure and tariffsheadwind
Raw materials, packaging, manufacturing and freight costs have faced inflationary pressure in fiscal 2026, partly due to tariffs. If these increases persist and cannot be fully offset through pricing and optimization, margins could be materially affected.
- Demand for protein and active lifestylestailwind
Consumer interest in protein, satiety and convenient nutrition supports category growth. Consumption data for the third quarter show Premier Protein shakes keeping dollar momentum, a favorable sign for demand.
- Concentration in third-party productionmixed
One external manufacturer supplies a large share of the RTD shakes, and some formats depend on a single packaging source. This dependence could limit the ability to meet demand or maintain quality standards, and supplier issues have already led to inventory charges.
- Cost of financing and debtheadwind
Higher borrowings under the revolving credit facility raised interest expense in fiscal 2026, even though the average rate fell. If borrowing stays elevated, financing costs could continue to weigh on earnings.
Competitive position
The company says it competes with other convenient nutrition brands, private label manufacturers and large food and beverage players, some of which have far greater marketing and financial resources. Competition is based on quality, taste, nutritional value, price, promotions and shelf space.
Premier Protein is described as the leader in ready-to-drink shakes, with its position resting on consumer loyalty and broad distribution. If competitors step up promotions or launch similar products at lower prices, the company could have to cut prices or raise marketing spend.
- Convenient nutrition brands
Protein shake and powder brands targeting the same sales channels, including club, FDM and eCommerce.
- Private label manufacturers
Store brand products competing on price and shelf space at large retailers.
- Large food and beverage players
Companies with much greater resources, noted in the filing as able to affect prices and market share.
- Third-party suppliers and manufacturers
Not direct competitors, but they shape the company's ability to supply its products to the market.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Other events
- Quarterly report05 May 2026
- Current report05 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Feb 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report03 Feb 2026
- Current report03 Feb 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report02 Feb 2026Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / BellRing Brands, Inc. · 18 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / BellRing Brands, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / BellRing Brands, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.