olivLaw · US equity research
Mondelēz International, Inc. MDLZ
Food and Kindred Products · SIC 2000 · Vertical: Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000)
Mondelez International is one of the largest snack companies in the world, with net revenues of 38.5 billion USD and net earnings of 2.5 billion USD in 2025. In the second quarter of 2026 net revenues rose 4.1 percent and organic growth was 2.2 percent. The company remains exposed to cocoa price volatility, tariffs and geopolitical risks.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Mondelēz International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock was 67.38 USD (+3.47% on the day), with market capitalisation 85.3 bn USD, P/E 21.2 on diluted EPS of 3.17 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.00%, beta -0.04, 52-week range 51.51–67.38 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 10.0 bn USD (+2.3% YoY), net income of 1.3 bn USD (+75.6% YoY), diluted EPS 1.02 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.4
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 59.80 – 66.85
- above the upper band · %B 1.08 · band width 11.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 61.93 / 60.52
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.17 / 0.78
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +15.2% | −1.1% | +16.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +7.6% | −0.5% | +8.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +8.9% | +4.4% | +4.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | +25.2% | +12.3% | +12.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +20.1% | +13.5% | +6.6 pp | −45.6% |
| 3 years | −2.1% | +76.4% | −78.5 pp | −72.2% |
| 5 years | +8.2% | +63.7% | −55.5 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.6 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.0 bn | 9.7 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.1 bn | 9.4 bn | 10.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 5.9 bn | 6.9 bn | 6.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.5 bn | 7.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 6.0 bn |
| Gross profit | 3.7 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn |
| SG&A | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Operating income | 1.6 bn | 680.0 m | 1.2 bn | 744.0 m | 952.0 m | 808.0 m | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 331.0 m | 324.0 m | 339.0 m ≈ | 343.0 m ≈ | 352.0 m | 343.0 m | 350.0 m ≈ | 347.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 127.0 m | 137.0 m | 151.0 m | 157.0 m | 154.0 m | 148.0 m | 144.0 m | 147.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 1.6 bn | 545.0 m | 855.0 m | 695.0 m | 919.0 m | 775.0 m | 1.9 bn | 1.7 bn |
| Income tax | 216.0 m | 154.0 m | 230.0 m | 137.0 m | 261.0 m | 228.0 m | 364.0 m | 424.0 m |
| Net income | 1.7 bn | 402.0 m | 641.0 m | 743.0 m | 665.0 m | 560.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 1.30 ≈ | 0.31 | 0.49 | 0.57 | 0.51 ≈ | 0.44 | 1.20 | 1.02 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 308.0 m ≈ | 717.0 m ≈ | 2.4 bn | 467.0 m | 855.0 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 405.0 m | 277.0 m | 305.0 m ≈ | 299.0 m ≈ | 398.0 m | 312.0 m | 342.0 m ≈ | 293.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 627.0 m | 623.0 m | 610.0 m ≈ | 609.0 m ≈ | 645.0 m | 644.0 m | 643.0 m ≈ | 640.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 131.0 m ≈ | 240.0 m ≈ | 492.0 m | 0 | 212.0 m ≈ | 633.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 41 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 8.7, median 22.2, max 82.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25.9 bn | 25.9 bn | 26.6 bn | 28.7 bn | 31.5 bn | 36.0 bn | 36.4 bn | 38.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +0.2% | −0.3% | +2.8% | +8.0% | +9.7% | +14.4% | +1.2% | +5.8% |
| Net income | 3.3 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | +17.3% | +18.5% | −9.5% | +21.0% | −36.8% | +82.5% | −7.0% | −46.8% |
| Diluted EPS | 2.23 | 2.69 | 2.47 | 3.04 | 1.96 | 3.62 | 3.42 | 1.89 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +20.5% | +20.6% | −8.2% | +23.1% | −35.5% | +84.7% | −5.5% | −44.7% |
| net % | 12.8% | 15.2% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 6.4% |
| Free cash flow | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.2 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.2 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 2.7 bn USD
- Net debt
- 493.0 m USD
- Equity
- 25.9 bn USD
- Total assets
- 71.5 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 0.59x
- ROE
- 9.3%
- ROA
- 3.5%
- FCF margin
- 8.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26.6 bn | 28.7 bn | 31.5 bn | 36.0 bn | 36.4 bn | 38.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 16.1 bn | 17.5 bn | 20.2 bn | 22.3 bn | 22.2 bn | 27.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 10.4 bn | 11.3 bn | 11.3 bn | 13.8 bn | 14.3 bn | 10.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 332.0 m | 347.0 m | 346.0 m | 380.0 m | 400.0 m | 400.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 6.1 bn | 6.3 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.0 bn | 7.4 bn | 7.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 3.9 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.5 bn | 5.5 bn | 6.3 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 5.0 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 6.7 bn ≈ | 7.6 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 423.0 m | 365.0 m | 428.0 m | 550.0 m | 508.0 m | 599.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 3.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.2 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.3 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 865.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 782.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 3.6 bn | 4.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 2.47 | 3.04 | 1.96 | 3.62 | 3.42 | 1.89 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 1.47 | 1.62 | 1.79 | 1.94 | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.7 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.3 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.6 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.8 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 10.0 bn | 10.3 bn | 10.1 bn | 11.7 bn | 13.2 bn | 13.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 21.9 bn | 22.0 bn | 23.5 bn | 23.9 bn | 23.0 bn | 24.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 18.5 bn | 18.3 bn | 19.7 bn | 19.8 bn | 18.8 bn | 19.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 67.8 bn | 67.1 bn | 71.2 bn | 71.4 bn | 68.5 bn | 71.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 6.2 bn | 6.7 bn | 7.6 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.4 bn | 10.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 29.0 m | 216.0 m | 2.3 bn | 420.0 m | 71.0 m | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 15.2 bn | 14.0 bn | 16.7 bn | 19.0 bn | 19.5 bn | 21.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 40.2 bn | 38.8 bn | 44.2 bn | 43.0 bn | 41.5 bn | 45.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 27.7 bn | 28.3 bn | 26.9 bn | 28.4 bn | 27.0 bn | 25.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 863.0 m | 965.0 m | 906.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 3.1 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 3.5 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 500.0 m | -26.0 m | -4.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 526.0 m | -1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -2.2 bn | -4.1 bn | -456.0 m | -7.6 bn | -5.8 bn | -2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 04 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 63 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 85.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet80
- Growth29
- Quality93
- Returns68
- Valuation44
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 25.49 – 94.07 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)44.52 – 69.36 (Mid 54.14)WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 4.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 16.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA34.30 – 62.45 (Mid 44.22)4 companies used · median multiple 8.5x · quartiles 6.6x – 11.8xBGS, BRBR, CPB, FLO
- Peers: P/E48.00 – 94.07 (Mid 71.50)4 companies used · median multiple 22.5x · quartiles 15.1x – 29.6xBRBR, CPB, FLO, UCFI
- Dividend discount (DDM)25.49 – 34.28 (Mid 29.24)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 63/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 14.8% | 100 (vs peers) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 10.2% | 89 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 89.7% | 85 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 7.0% | 58 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | -1.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 9.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.6x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 21.2x | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.7x | 21 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 4.3% | 54 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.6% | 65 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 70.3% | 71 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth29/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns68/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation44/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 38.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.8%; net margin 10.2%; ROE 15.5%; net debt/EBITDA 0.3x.
The estimated value range is 39.41–65.91 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 49.18 USD, the price of 67.38 USD leaves a potential of -27.0% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -37.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 14.8%
- Net margin: 10.2%
- FCF conversion: 89.7%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.3x
- Interest coverage: 9.2x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 70.3%
What contradicts it
- EPS CAGR 3Y: -1.2%
- Current ratio: 0.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 12.7x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Versus the vertical median
Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZMondelez International, Inc. | 85.3 bn | 21.2 | 15.5% | 10.2% | +5.8% | +20% / −2% |
| CAGConagra Brands, Inc. | 7.3 bn | — | -24.9% | -17.0% | −2.9% | −14% / −46% |
| CPBThe Campbell’s Company | 6.9 bn | 17.8 | 10.4% | 4.1% | −5.0% | −24% / −42% |
| OTLYOatly Group AB | 5.1 bn | — | -247.9% | -17.7% | +4.7% | −34% / −55% |
| BYNDBeyond Meat, Inc. | 3.7 bn | — | — | 111.7% | −15.6% | −76% / −97% |
| STKHSteakholder Foods Ltd. | 2.3 bn | — | -266.3% | -112,470.0% | unavailable | −95% / −100% |
| FLOFlowers Foods Inc | 1.5 bn | 27.3 | 4.0% | 1.1% | unavailable | −34% / −66% |
| BRBRBellRing Brands, Inc. | 1.2 bn | 7.2 | — | 7.3% | +16.1% | −67% / −81% |
| SMPLThe Simply Good Foods Company | 1.2 bn | — | -9.6% | -11.5% | −6.5% | −32% / −66% |
| VITLVital Farms, Inc. | 450.8 m | — | -7.4% | -3.0% | +25.3% | −68% / −21% |
| UCFICN Healthy Food Tech Group Corp. | 287.8 m | 36.7 | 39.2% | 24.6% | +144.6% | −46% / unavailable |
| BGSB&G Foods, Inc. | 208.9 m | — | -15.8% | -4.0% | unavailable | −44% / −72% |
| CHSNChanson International Holding | 131.0 m | 112.0 | 0.5% | 1.0% | +0.2% | −99% / −100% |
| SOWGSow Good Inc. | 44.4 m | — | -346.4% | — | unavailable | −75% / −98% |
| MLECMoolec Science SA | 32.7 m | — | -86.4% | -130.0% | +521.5% | −86% / −100% |
| LSFLaird Superfood, Inc. | 26.9 m | — | -22.9% | -3.4% | +15.2% | −12% / +129% |
| BOFBranchOut Food Inc. | 25.9 m | — | -202.6% | -56.8% | +113.3% | −45% / +8% |
| BRLSBorealis Foods Inc. | 24.7 m | — | — | -56.5% | +8.2% | −38% / −90% |
| HAINThe Hain Celestial Group, Inc. | 13.7 m | — | -96.8% | -22.5% | −13.2% | −86% / −99% |
| NOMDNomad Foods Limited | — | — | 5.3% | 4.5% | −2.2% | +2% / −22% |
| DDCDDC Enterprise Limited | — | — | -124.4% | -123.3% | +4.6% | −96% / −100% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MDLZ from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 41.41 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 73.13 Total return 12% · Per year 12% | 110.04 Total return 67% · Per year 67% |
| 3 years | 42.20 Total return -30% · Per year -11% | 83.66 Total return 35% · Per year 10% | 137.93 Total return 118% · Per year 30% |
| 5 years | 43.01 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 95.71 Total return 61% · Per year 10% | 172.88 Total return 181% · Per year 23% |
- Exit P/E± 20.92
- Net margin± 14.64
- Annual revenue growth± 11.74
- Annual dilution± 1.23
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
Mondelez International is one of the largest snack companies in the world, with net revenues of 38.5 billion USD and net earnings of 2.5 billion USD in 2025 1. In the second quarter of 2026 net revenues rose 4.1 percent and organic growth was 2.2 percent 3. The company remains exposed to cocoa price volatility, tariffs and geopolitical risks 2.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds strong global and local brands and leading positions in several snack categories 1. Its global footprint and operating scale support efficiency and access to distribution 1.
- A geographically balanced portfolio, with a significant share of revenue from emerging markets, provides diversification 13. Continued reinvestment in brands and innovation supports demand 1.
- The company has maintained cash generation and returned capital to shareholders, including through a dividend increase 3.
Weaknesses
- Adjusted margins fell in the second quarter of 2026 due to higher raw material costs and advertising and promotion spending 3. Margin pressure could persist if cocoa prices remain elevated 2.
- Dependence on cocoa, dairy and sugar exposes the company to price volatility that hedging cannot fully offset 1.
- The multi-year ERP transformation generates additional operating costs over several years, which may weigh on near-term profitability 13.
Opportunities
- Growth in snack categories and digital commerce channels offers room for expansion 1. New product launches, including reduced-sugar variants, could attract new consumers 1.
- If growth in emerging markets continues, the company could regain share in Europe after execution improvements 3.
- The cocoa cost decline expected for 2026 could ease cost pressure if it materialises 2.
Threats
- New tariffs and trade disputes can raise costs and disrupt import flows across the supply chain 2.
- The conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East can disrupt operations and shipping in those regions 12.
- Price-sensitive consumers may switch to private label products, which could reduce volumes and market share 1.
Risks
- Raw material price volatilityhigh
Costs for cocoa, dairy, wheat and oils can rise sharply, and hedging does not fully eliminate them 1. If prices cannot be passed on to consumers, margins could decline 1.
- Tariffs and trade policyhigh
Changes in US and other trade policies can raise costs and limit market access 12. The exact impact depends on negotiations and mitigation measures that remain uncertain 2.
- Geopolitical risk in Russia and Ukrainemedium
Operations in Russia could be affected by sanctions, expropriation or deconsolidation, which could lead to asset impairment 12. Exposure is small in revenue terms, but reputational risk remains elevated 1.
- Currency volatility and sovereign riskmedium
Currency depreciation and capital controls in emerging markets can reduce reported revenues and limit cash repatriation 1. Highly inflationary accounting has been applied to several economies 1.
- ERP programme and operational transformationlow
The multi-year ERP implementation can cause operational disruption and unexpected costs 13. Delays or implementation difficulties could affect supply chain efficiency 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Organic revenue growth has returned to positive territory, and management has confirmed an outlook of at least 2 percent for 2026 3. If the decline in cocoa costs materialises, margins could recover gradually 2.
- Growth in emerging markets and North America could offset pressure in Europe 3. The portfolio of global brands provides a solid base for innovation 1.
- Cash generation and the policy of returning capital to shareholders, including a dividend increase, point to disciplined financial management 3.
What would break the thesis
- Adjusted earnings per share fell in the second quarter of 2026 and adjusted operating margins contracted under cost pressure 3. If this trend continues, profitability could be affected over the medium term 3.
- Demand in Europe was hit by price elasticity, and a recovery in market share is still uncertain 3. Pressure from private label competitors could increase 1.
- Tariffs and trade uncertainty remain unresolved, and the company has said the impact of any new measures could be significant 2. ERP transformation costs add further pressure 1.
What to watch
- Trend in adjusted gross and operating marginsQ3 2026
- Cocoa price trend and effectiveness of hedging2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (29 Oct 2026), 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
Mondelez aims to empower people to snack right and sells products in over 150 countries 1. Its core business is making and selling chocolate, biscuits and baked snacks, complemented by gum and candy, cheese and grocery and powdered beverages 1. The portfolio includes global brands such as Oreo, Ritz, LU, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka and Toblerone 1.
Segments
Market context
The snacks market is fragmented and highly competitive, with global, regional and local competitors including new start-up brands 1. The company says demand in its core categories keeps growing as snacking becomes a global consumer habit 1. Higher raw material costs and inflation remain pressures on margins 1.
Cocoa and other raw material prices stayed elevated against historical levels, even if below the peak of the prior year 2. This could affect shelf competitiveness, particularly in developed markets where consumers may switch to private label products 1.
Trends
- US tariffsheadwind
Higher tariffs on imports raised costs of finished products and some ingredients and packaging, and the Supreme Court ruled some of these tariffs unlawful in 2026 12. If new measures are implemented, the impact on revenues and costs could be significant 2.
- High cocoa costsmixed
The company expects cocoa prices to remain elevated against historical averages in the near and medium term 2. Lower costs in 2026, if they materialise, could support margins 1.
- Growth in emerging marketstailwind
Emerging markets, especially Latin America and AMEA, kept growing faster than developed markets and supported revenue growth 3. Currency volatility and sovereign risk remain sources of uncertainty 1.
- Demand elasticity after price increasesheadwind
Price increases used to offset costs reduced volumes in Europe and the United States, and consumers may choose cheaper products 12. This trend could persist if prices remain high.
Competitive position
The company operates in highly competitive markets where it competes on quality, brands, innovation, price and distribution 1. Competitors may have different profit objectives and may take different pricing and promotional approaches 1.
Mondelez says its market positions are supported by global scale, its brand portfolio and distribution networks, but start-up entrants may win share in niche segments 1. Competitive pressure could intensify if prices stay high 1.
- Global and regional snack competitors
The source does not name specific competitors; the company refers only to global, regional and local competitors, including new start-up brands 1.
- Local and regional brands
Local competition is cited as an important factor, especially in emerging markets where the company adapts its portfolio to local preferences 1.
- Start-up brands
New start-up entrants are identified as a distinct competitive group with different investment horizons 1.
- Retailer private label brands
Consumers may switch to private label or lower-priced offers, an indirect form of competition 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Petar Sogindolski va fi noul Managing Director pentru România al Mondelēz InternationalEconomedia · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Schimbare la conducerea Mondelez România: Petar Sogindolski preia funcţia de managing director de la Mateja PodgornikZiarul Financiar · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Investiție în România. Gigantul american al dulciurilor Mondelez, producătorul Milka și Oreo, va schimba linii de ambalare și va scoate pe piață un nou produsProfit.ro · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- FOTO | Fabrica Mondelez din Clinceni își majorează capacitatea de producție și vrea să angajeze încă 100 de persoaneEconomedia · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Chocolate giant Mondelez ramps up lobbying to delay EU deforestation law, after previously backing itEUobserver · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Mondelēz shifts European biscuit packaging from plastic trays to paperYahoo Finance — News · 07 Sept 2026 · EN
- Mondelez International Stock: Is MDLZ Underperforming the Consumer Staples Sector?Yahoo Finance — News · 03 Sept 2026 · EN
- Fabrica americană Mondelez din Ucraina, unde se produc ciocolata Milka, biscuiții Oreo și prăjitura Barni, lovită de un atac rusesc cu droneEconomedia · 24 Aug 2026 · RO
- Fabrica americană Mondelez din Ucraina, unde se produc Milka, Oreo şi Barni, a fost atacată de Rusia cu droneAntena 3 CNN · 24 Aug 2026 · RO
- Fabrica Milka, Oreo și Barni din Ucraina, lovită de drone rusești. Cinci angajați au fost răniți, la MondelēzLibertatea.ro · 24 Aug 2026 · RO
- Fabrica americană Mondelez din Ucraina, unde se produc ciocolata Milka, biscuiții Oreo și prăjitura Barni, lovită de un atac rusesc cu droneHotNews.ro · 23 Aug 2026 · RO
- Russia attacks factory owned by Mondelēz in Sumy Oblast, workers injured – photosUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 23 Aug 2026 · EN
- L’Oreal, Mondelez, and Nestle use AI to speed product developmentAI News · 07 Jul 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report26 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement03 Apr 2026
- Current report18 Feb 2026Material agreement · Termination of a material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Mondelēz International, Inc. · 04 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Mondelēz International, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Mondelēz International, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.