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Chanson International Holding CHSN

Food and Kindred Products · SIC 2000 · Vertical: Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000)

3.36USD−0.59% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Chanson International Holding runs a chain of bakeries and cafés with stores in Xinjiang and New York, selling bakery products, seasonal products and beverages. In fiscal 2025 revenue was roughly flat, but the company posted an operating loss and comparable store sales fell sharply, raising questions about the model's durability in China's current economic climate.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Chanson International Holding (CHSN) stock was 3.36 USD (−0.59% on the day), with market capitalisation 131.0 m USD, P/E 112.0 on diluted EPS of 0.03 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.19, 52-week range 0.83–290.00 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
131.0 m USD
shares as of 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
112.0
Diluted EPS TTM 0.03 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
0.89%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.19
Volatility (1y) 333%
52-week range
0.83290.00

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
82.4
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
-0.18 – 2.69
above the upper band · %B 1.23 · band width 229.2%
SMA 50 / 200
1.15 / 78.03
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.33 / 0.09
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+217.0%−1.1%+218.1 pp—
3 months+226.2%−0.5%+226.7 pp—
6 months+110.0%+4.4%+105.6 pp—
Year to date−98.5%+12.3%−110.8 pp—
1 year−98.5%+13.5%−112.0 pp−44.5%
3 years−100.0%+76.4%−176.4 pp−65.9%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−99.7%
31 Mar 2026 → 15 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−100.0%
14 Dec 2023 → 15 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 7,333.3, median 11,108.7, max 42,434.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202020212022202320242025
Revenue10.3 m14.7 m13.3 m17.3 m18.2 m18.3 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+42.4%−9.7%+30.0%+5.7%+0.2%
Net income-164.0 k506.8 k-1.3 m33.6 k756.3 k187.5 k
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable−354.2%unavailable+2,151.7%−75.2%
Diluted EPS-0.020.06-0.140.233.680.03
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−333.3%unavailable+1,500.0%−99.2%
net %-1.6%3.4%-9.7%0.2%4.1%1.0%
Free cash flow671.3 k-259.8 k-308.7 k-3.7 m3.0 m468.6 k

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.6 m USD
Financial debt
5.1 m USD
Net debt
-3.6 m USD
Equity
56.2 m USD
Total assets
82.0 m USD
Debt / equity
0.09x
Current ratio
0.81x
ROE
0.5%
ROA
0.3%
FCF margin
2.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
17.3 m
2024
18.2 m
2025
18.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
9.1 m
2024
11.0 m
2025
10.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
8.1 m
2024
7.2 m
2025
8.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-610.5 k
2024
-529.6 k
2025
-1.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
831.8 k
2024
823.9 k
2025
889.7 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
221.3 k ≈
2024
294.2 k ≈
2025
-997.4 k ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
-35.5 k
2024
50.9 k
2025
188.3 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
153.0 k
2024
830.9 k
2025
261.7 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Income tax
2023
119.4 k
2024
74.6 k
2025
74.2 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Net income
2023
33.6 k
2024
756.3 k
2025
187.5 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.23
2024
3.68
2025
0.03

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
144.2 k
2024
205.3 k
2025
5.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.5 m
2024
12.1 m
2025
8.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Receivables
2023
2.0 m
2024
991.5 k
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Inventories
2023
723.9 k
2024
738.8 k
2025
830.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Current assets
2023
9.3 m
2024
18.4 m
2025
12.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
5.5 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
7.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
150.0 k
2024
262.5 k
2025
226.3 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Total assets
2023
38.4 m
2024
41.8 m
2025
82.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.9 m
2024
2.1 m
2025
3.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
2.7 m
2024
1.5 m
2025
428.8 k

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
4.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
14.7 m
2024
14.1 m
2025
15.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
26.4 m
2024
23.4 m
2025
25.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Equity
2023
12.0 m †
2024
18.4 m †
2025
56.2 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-3.0 m
2024
3.5 m
2025
2.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Capex
2023
774.0 k
2024
583.3 k
2025
2.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-3.7 m ≈
2024
3.0 m ≈
2025
468.6 k ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-10.5 m
2024
1.9 m
2025
-45.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
12.1 m
2024
5.4 m
2025
39.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Apr 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
12.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
-75.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-99.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-84.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
45.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBITDA margin
-5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EBIT margin
-10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net margin
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF margin
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Returns

ROE
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROA
0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROIC
-4.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
ROCE
-2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-3.6 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Interest coverage
-10.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Quick ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.9 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Capital expenditure
2.4 m USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Free cash flow
468.6 k USD
computed by olivLawFY 2025
FCF conversion
249.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
27 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days inventory outstanding
28 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Days payables outstanding
107 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Cash conversion cycle
-51 days
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
131.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Enterprise value
127.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Market cap / net income TTM
698.4x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/E (TTM)
112.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Earnings yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/S
7.2x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
7.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/FCF
279.5x
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
FCF yield
0.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 42 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

3.36 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 131.0 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
131.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
P/E (TTM)
112.0x
computed by olivLawFY 2025
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
0.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025 · balance sheet at 31 Dec 2025
Net margin
1.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue growth (YoY)
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 31 Dec 2025
Latest balance sheet date: 31 Dec 2025
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 20 Apr 2026
verified 176

Score by group

  • Balance sheet0
  • Quality75
  • Valuation2
  • Growth94

Estimated value range

Low
0.43
USD per share
Mid
0.51
USD per share
High
0.64
USD per share
Price: 3.36 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -84.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -558.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.33 – 0.82 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)0.33 – 0.46 (Mid 0.38)
    WACC 9.1% · starting FCFF 603.6 k USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/E0.53 – 0.82 (Mid 0.64)
    5 companies used · median multiple 21.2x · quartiles 17.8x – 27.3x
    BRBR, CPB, FLO, MDLZ, UCFI
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 42/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-4.5%67 (vs peers)17%
Net margin · Quality1.0%63 (vs peers)10%
FCF conversion · Quality249.9%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth11.2%94 (on a fixed band)14%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-10.0x0 (on a fixed band)10%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x1 (on a fixed band)7%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation112.0x0 (vs peers)17%
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation0.4%4 (on a fixed band)14%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial94/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality75/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation2/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Chanson International Holding (CHSN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 18.3 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 0.2%; net margin 1.0%; ROE 0.5%.

The estimated value range is 0.43–0.64 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.51 USD, the price of 3.36 USD leaves a potential of -84.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -558.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 42/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF conversion: 249.9%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.2%

What contradicts it

  • Interest coverage: -10.0x
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 112.0x
  • FCF yield: 0.4%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Food and Kindred Products (SIC 2000) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
112.0x
vertical median 21.2x
above median (+427.7%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 10.1x
P/S
7.2x
vertical median 0.8x
above median (+841.4%)
P/B
2.3x
vertical median 2.4x
at median
ROE
0.5%
vertical median -22.9%
above median
Net margin
1.0%
vertical median -4.0%
above median
EBIT margin
-10.3%
vertical median -9.4%
below median
Revenue YoY
0.2%
vertical median 5.2%
below median (−95.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 3.3x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 8.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
MDLZMondelez International, Inc.85.3 bn21.215.5%10.2%+5.8%+17% / −5%
CAGConagra Brands, Inc.7.3 bn—-24.9%-17.0%−2.9%−14% / −46%
CPBThe Campbell’s Company6.9 bn17.810.4%4.1%−5.0%−24% / −42%
OTLYOatly Group AB5.1 bn—-247.9%-17.7%+4.7%−34% / −55%
BYNDBeyond Meat, Inc.3.7 bn——111.7%−15.6%−76% / −97%
STKHSteakholder Foods Ltd.2.3 bn—-266.3%-112,470.0%unavailable−95% / −100%
FLOFlowers Foods Inc1.5 bn27.34.0%1.1%unavailable−34% / −66%
BRBRBellRing Brands, Inc.1.2 bn7.2—7.3%+16.1%−67% / −81%
SMPLThe Simply Good Foods Company1.2 bn—-9.6%-11.5%−6.5%−32% / −66%
VITLVital Farms, Inc.450.8 m—-7.4%-3.0%+25.3%−68% / −21%
UCFICN Healthy Food Tech Group Corp.287.8 m36.739.2%24.6%+144.6%−46% / unavailable
BGSB&G Foods, Inc.208.9 m—-15.8%-4.0%unavailable−44% / −72%
CHSNChanson International Holding131.0 m112.00.5%1.0%+0.2%−98% / −100%
SOWGSow Good Inc.44.4 m—-346.4%—unavailable−75% / −98%
MLECMoolec Science SA32.7 m—-86.4%-130.0%+521.5%−86% / −100%
LSFLaird Superfood, Inc.26.9 m—-22.9%-3.4%+15.2%−12% / +129%
BOFBranchOut Food Inc.25.9 m—-202.6%-56.8%+113.3%−45% / +8%
BRLSBorealis Foods Inc.24.7 m——-56.5%+8.2%−38% / −90%
HAINThe Hain Celestial Group, Inc.13.7 m—-96.8%-22.5%−13.2%−86% / −99%
NOMDNomad Foods Limited——5.3%4.5%−2.2%+2% / −22%
DDCDDC Enterprise Limited——-124.4%-123.3%+4.6%−96% / −100%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CHSN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
0.34
Total return -90% · Per year -90%
0.60
Total return -82% · Per year -82%
0.90
Total return -73% · Per year -73%
3 years
0.38
Total return -89% · Per year -52%
0.74
Total return -78% · Per year -40%
1.22
Total return -64% · Per year -29%
5 years
0.42
Total return -88% · Per year -34%
0.92
Total return -73% · Per year -23%
1.64
Total return -51% · Per year -13%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 0.19
  • Net margin± 0.13
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.10
  • Annual dilution± 0.01

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 20 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026), 6-K (27 Aug 2026), 6-K (20 Aug 2026), 6-K (23 Jul 2026).

In brief

Chanson International Holding runs a chain of bakeries and cafés with stores in Xinjiang and New York, selling bakery products, seasonal products and beverages. In fiscal 2025 revenue was roughly flat, but the company posted an operating loss and comparable store sales fell sharply, raising questions about the model's durability in China's current economic climate.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Stores are operated directly, allowing tighter control over product quality and customer experience. The company has a stable network of 63 stores in Xinjiang 1.
  • The company launches new products frequently and has a large number of products on sale, which helps it attract new customers and retain existing ones 1.
  • The ERP system used in China provides detailed data on costs and sales for each product, supporting management decisions.

Weaknesses

  • The company reported an operating loss in 2025, and selling and administrative expenses rose above the level of revenue 1.
  • Comparable store sales fell sharply in both China and the U.S. 1, pointing to demand problems in existing stores.
  • The company depends on the UFG entities through contractual arrangements, and a significant part of its revenue comes from them 1.

Opportunities

  • The company plans to open new stores and expand into new markets, including New York City, where it is in talks with potential partners.
  • Growth in seasonal product sales points to potential range diversification that could reduce dependence on core bakery products 1.
  • Developing online sales and social media presence could bring new customers if used effectively.

Threats

  • If China's economy stays weak and consumers keep spending cautiously, in-store sales could decline further 1.
  • Changes in Chinese rules on VIE structures could limit the company's control over the UFG entities, affecting the value of an investment.
  • Online competition from bakery brands could further erode the company's share of local sales.

Risks

  • VIE structurehigh

    The company holds no direct equity in the UFG entities, and control rests on contractual arrangements that have not been tested in court 1. If Chinese authorities judge these arrangements non-compliant, the company could lose control of operations.

  • Dependence on the UFG entitieshigh

    A significant part of revenue comes from the UFG entities through exclusive service agreements 1. Termination of these agreements could seriously affect business viability under the current structure.

  • Conflict of interest of the shareholdermedium

    The chairman owns most of the UFG entities 1, creating a risk that personal interests could prevail over those of the company. Independent directors can limit this risk but cannot eliminate it entirely.

  • Operating lossesmedium

    The operating loss and rising selling and administrative costs could continue if sales do not recover 1.

  • Tax risks from transfer pricinglow

    Transactions between group entities could be challenged by Chinese tax authorities, potentially leading to adjustments and additional interest 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If sales of seasonal products keep rising and China's economy recovers, the company could recover part of the lost in-store sales.
  • A large portfolio of new products and a clear focus on healthy eating could support customer loyalty over time.
  • If expansion in New York City succeeds, the company could diversify its geographic concentration risk.

What would break the thesis

  • Comparable store sales fell sharply in both China and the U.S., showing the demand problems are not isolated.
  • The company relies on a complex legal structure that authorities could challenge, with major effects on operations.
  • The operating loss and rising administrative costs could erode capital if they are not corrected quickly.

What to watch

  • Development of comparable store sales in China and the U.S.Q1 2027
  • Stability of the exclusive service agreements with the UFG entities2027
  • Trend of selling and administrative expenses relative to revenuenext 10-K
  • Progress on opening new stores in New York City2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 20 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (27 Oct 2026), 6-K (28 Sept 2026), 6-K (18 Sept 2026), 6-K (27 Aug 2026), 6-K (20 Aug 2026), 6-K (23 Jul 2026).

The business

The company operates bakery stores directly rather than through franchises, grouped into two geographic segments: the PRC Stores, based in Xinjiang, and the U.S. Stores, active in New York City. The China stores produce most bakery products in a central factory in Urumqi, prepare beverages in the stores and contract third parties for seasonal products. The U.S. stores bake products in each store's kitchen and also serve eat-in meals. The company says it focuses on healthy eating, with low-fat and low-sugar products.

The corporate structure is unusual: the company is a Cayman Islands entity that holds no direct equity in the UFG entities in China. Their revenue and profit are consolidated through contractual VIE agreements, and a significant part of revenue comes from these entities. The company was incorporated in the Cayman Islands in 2019 and its principal offices are in Urumqi.

On the management side, the China stores use an ERP system that collects production and sales data, while the U.S. stores have not adopted it. The company also sells through third-party online food ordering platforms and its own transport team, which keeps the link between points of sale and the production team.

Segments

PRC Stores (Xinjiang, China)

The Chinese segment accounted for 89.5% of revenue in fiscal 2025 1, and bakery products generated 89.4% of this segment's revenue 1. Comparable store sales in China fell 17.2% 1, while seasonal product sales rose without offsetting the decline in bakery products.

U.S. Stores (New York City)

The U.S. segment accounted for 10.5% of revenue in 2025 1, and beverages made up 78.5% of this segment's revenue 1. Comparable store sales in the U.S. fell 29.0% 1, mainly due to the suspension of bakery operations at Chanson 23rd Street.

Market context

The company competes in the bakery and café food market in two distinct areas: the city of Urumqi and the wider Xinjiang region of China, where it runs 63 stores 1, and New York City, where it operates three stores 1. Competition in China has intensified, mainly from brands selling online, while in-store consumption has declined.

The sources provided give no figures on the company's market share or the total size of the bakery market in the regions where it operates. The company acknowledges that dependence on a small number of stores and on a single region in China exposes it to local risks.

Trends

  • Shift to online consumptionheadwind

    The company notes that more consumers are buying bakery products from online brands, which has intensified competition and contributed to lower in-store sales 1. If this trend continues, it could pressure the revenue of physical stores.

  • China's post-pandemic economyheadwind

    Management says China's economy has recovered more slowly than expected, and consumers are cautious due to economic pressure and weak confidence 1. This external condition directly affects demand in the Xinjiang stores.

  • Growth in seasonal productsmixed

    Revenue from seasonal products in China rose considerably in 2025, showing that seasonal launches can partly offset the decline in core products 1. The effect, however, depends on seasonality and on the capacity of third-party producers.

  • Focus on healthy eatingtailwind

    The company builds its range around low-fat and low-sugar products, which it considers an advantage for customer loyalty 1. This trend may support demand, but the sources offer no data showing its effect on sales.

Competitive position

The sources mention competition from bakery brands selling online and from local supermarkets with which the company cooperates for distribution. The company does not present a list of competitors listed on U.S. markets, and the sources give no comparative market shares.

The company differentiates itself through owned stores, a range built on healthy ingredients and its own quality control system. However, intensified online competition has reduced in-store sales, and its cost advantage in Xinjiang does not fully offset price pressure.

  • Online-selling bakery brands in China

    Named in the source as the main driver of competitive pressure on in-store sales, without individual identification.

  • Local supermarkets in Xinjiang

    The company uses them as distribution partners, but the source also presents them as part of the sales channel rather than direct rivals.

  • Third-party online food ordering platforms

    Channels through which the company sells products, but which can compete for customer attention with its own online store.

  • Cafés and bakeries in New York City

    Local competition for the U.S. stores, not identified by name in the source.

News & filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Chanson International Holding · 20 Apr 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.