olivLaw · US equity research
Lumen Technologies, Inc. LUMN
Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) · SIC 4813 · Vertical: Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) (SIC 4813)
Lumen Technologies is a digital network services company that sells connectivity, security and cloud services to enterprise customers, mainly over its fiber optic network. The company is in transformation: it has sold its residential fiber business to AT&T and now focuses on strategic AI-related services, which reached about 53% of Business segment revenue in the second quarter of 2026.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Lumen Technologies, Inc. (LUMN) stock was 4.47 USD (−5.89% on the day), with market capitalisation 4.6 bn USD, dividend yield 0.00%, beta 2.19, 52-week range 4.43–10.99 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 2.7 bn USD (−12.1% YoY), net income of -265.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.26 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 35.0
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 4.16 – 5.34
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.26 · band width 24.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 5.66 / 7.20
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.27 / -0.33
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −20.5% | −1.1% | −19.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.5% | −0.5% | −26.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −54.4% | +4.4% | −58.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −42.5% | +12.3% | −54.8 pp | — |
| 1 year | −57.6% | +13.5% | −71.1 pp | −10.6% |
| 3 years | +299.1% | +76.4% | +222.7 pp | +3.2% |
| 5 years | −68.3% | +63.7% | −132.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn |
| SG&A | 711.0 m | 675.0 m | 755.0 m | 829.0 m | 940.0 m | 794.0 m | 779.0 m | 784.0 m |
| Operating income | 154.0 m | 107.0 m | -603.0 m | -116.0 m | -200.0 m | 602.0 m | -88.0 m | -167.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 758.0 m | 713.0 m | 688.0 m | 674.0 m | 674.0 m | 664.0 m | 668.0 m | 670.0 m |
| Interest expense | 357.0 m | 347.0 m | 338.0 m | 319.0 m | 280.0 m | 225.0 m | 201.0 m | 189.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -119.0 m | -245.0 m | -1.1 bn | -813.0 m | -509.0 m | 177.0 m | -255.0 m | -335.0 m |
| Income tax | -204.0 m | -44.0 m | -234.0 m | -192.0 m | -507.0 m | 377.0 m | -54.0 m | -70.0 m |
| Net income | 85.0 m | -201.0 m | -915.0 m | -621.0 m | -2.0 m | -200.0 m | -201.0 m | -265.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.09 ≈ | -0.20 | -0.92 | -0.62 | -0.00 ≈ | -0.20 | -0.20 | -0.26 |
| Operating cash flow | 688.0 m | 1.1 bn | 570.0 m ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 562.0 m | 1.3 bn | 971.0 m ≈ | 518.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 915.0 m | 791.0 m | 891.0 m ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn | 943.0 m | 902.0 m ≈ | 872.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 0 | 1.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.6 bn | 21.5 bn | 20.7 bn | 19.7 bn | 17.5 bn | 14.6 bn | 13.1 bn | 12.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +27.9% | −5.0% | −3.5% | −4.9% | −11.2% | −16.7% | −10.0% | −5.4% |
| Net income | -1.7 bn | -5.3 bn | -1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | -1.5 bn | -10.3 bn | -55.0 m | -1.7 bn |
| Net income YoY | −224.8% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −176.1% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.63 | -4.92 | -1.14 | 1.91 | -1.54 | -10.48 | -0.06 | -1.75 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −173.8% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −180.6% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -7.7% | -24.6% | -5.9% | 10.3% | -8.9% | -70.7% | -0.4% | -14.0% |
| Free cash flow | 3.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.6 bn | 1.7 bn | -940.0 m | 1.1 bn | 371.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.0 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 88.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -915.0 m USD
- Equity
- -1.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 34.3 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 1.80x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -5.1%
- FCF margin
- 3.0%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 20.7 bn | 19.7 bn | 17.5 bn | 14.6 bn | 13.1 bn | 12.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 8.9 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.9 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 11.8 bn ≈ | 11.2 bn ≈ | 9.6 bn ≈ | 7.4 bn ≈ | 6.4 bn ≈ | 5.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| SG&A | 3.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 962.0 m | 4.3 bn | 95.0 m | -9.6 bn | 460.0 m | -812.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.7 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 5.7 bn ≈ | 8.3 bn ≈ | 3.3 bn ≈ | -6.6 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -782.0 m | 2.7 bn | -991.0 m | -10.2 bn | -230.0 m | -2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 450.0 m | 668.0 m | 557.0 m | 61.0 m | -175.0 m | -977.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | -1.5 bn | -10.3 bn | -55.0 m | -1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.14 | 1.91 | -1.54 | -10.48 | -0.06 | -1.75 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.0 bn | 983.1 m | 987.7 m | 994.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 406.0 m | 354.0 m | 1.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 2.0 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.2 bn | 11.5 bn | 5.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 7.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 26.3 bn | 20.9 bn | 19.2 bn | 19.8 bn | 20.4 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 18.9 bn | 16.0 bn | 12.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 8.2 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.2 bn | 5.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 59.4 bn | 58.0 bn | 45.6 bn | 34.0 bn | 33.5 bn | 34.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.1 bn | 758.0 m | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 749.0 m | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 2.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 154.0 m | 157.0 m | 412.0 m | 88.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 6.6 bn | 7.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 11.2 bn † | 11.8 bn † | 10.4 bn † | 417.0 m † | 464.0 m † | -1.1 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 6.5 bn | 6.5 bn | 4.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 4.3 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 3.7 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.8 bn ≈ | 3.6 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | -940.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 371.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -3.6 bn | -2.7 bn | 5.5 bn | -1.2 bn | -2.8 bn | -4.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -4.3 bn | -3.8 bn | -9.3 bn | -18.0 m | -1.9 bn | -1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 780.0 m | 11.0 m | 3.0 m | 1.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 1.0 bn | 200.0 m | 0 | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 35 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 4.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation56
- Returns0
- Quality20
- Balance sheet45
- Growth0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 8.41 – 23.05 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDA8.41 – 23.05 (Mid 11.43)6 companies used · median multiple 3.8x · quartiles 2.7x – 8.1xATNI, SHEN, T, TDS, UNIT, VZ
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 35/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -5.8% | 20 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -10.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.3x | 91 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 0.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.7x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 1.3x | 100 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -21.4% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet45/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial20/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation56/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (LUMN). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -5.4%; net margin -5.8%; net debt/EBITDA -0.3x.
The estimated value range is 8.41–23.05 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 11.43 USD, the price of 4.47 USD leaves a potential of 155.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 60.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 35/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, quality, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 1.3x
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -5.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -10.8%
- Interest coverage: 0.2x
- Current ratio: 0.7x
- FCF yield: -21.4%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) (SIC 4813) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMXAmerica Movil Sab De Cv | 1,508.4 bn | 1,107.5 | 6.8% | 3.2% | −11.2% | +8% / +38% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | 191.4 bn | 11.8 | 15.4% | 11.8% | +2.5% | +12% / +20% |
| TAt&T Inc. | 147.1 bn | 11.8 | 10.5% | 10.2% | +2.7% | −16% / +32% |
| LUMNLumen Technologies, Inc. | 4.6 bn | — | — | -5.8% | −5.4% | −58% / +299% |
| TDSTelephone And Data Systems, Inc. | 4.1 bn | 11.4 | 8.2% | 33.2% | −5.3% | −11% / +83% |
| ATEXAnterix Inc. | 1.5 bn | 22.2 | 27.9% | 933.0% | +7.8% | +278% / +138% |
| UNITUniti Group Inc. | 1.3 bn | 1.7 | 666.9% | 30.4% | +91.5% | −14% / −41% |
| SHENShenandoah Telecommunications Company | 575.2 m | — | -4.4% | -10.2% | +9.1% | −5% / −53% |
| ATNIAtn International, Inc. | 397.3 m | 2.4 | 32.2% | 23.2% | −0.2% | +22% / −15% |
| CXDOCrexendo, Inc. | 174.7 m | 43.6 | 5.6% | 4.5% | +12.0% | −25% / +78% |
| NXPLNextPlat Corp | 21.8 m | — | -43.1% | -17.8% | −17.8% | +34% / −47% |
| IQSTIQSTEL Inc. | 9.0 m | — | -56.0% | -2.2% | +11.9% | −80% / −94% |
| SURGSurgepays, Inc. | 8.2 m | — | — | -47.9% | −6.4% | −92% / −98% |
| CTGGQwest Corp | 0 | — | -15.8% | -40.1% | −13.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| TIMBTim S.A. | — | — | 17.1% | 16.2% | +4.6% | −22% / +3% |
| TEOTelecom Argentina SA | — | — | -2.4% | -2.0% | +53.0% | −17% / +26% |
| BCEBce Inc. | — | — | 32.5% | 26.6% | +0.2% | −10% / −46% |
| PHIPLDT Inc. | — | — | 29.3% | 14.9% | +2.8% | −19% / −22% |
| KTKT Corporation | — | — | 2.8% | 1.7% | +0.4% | +1% / +41% |
| IDTIDT Corporation | — | 24.3 | 25.4% | 6.7% | +5.4% | +69% / +186% |
| TKCTurkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A S | — | — | 10.8% | 11.7% | +14.6% | −15% / −5% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LUMN from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
In brief
Lumen Technologies is a digital network services company that sells connectivity, security and cloud services to enterprise customers, mainly over its fiber optic network. The company is in transformation: it has sold its residential fiber business to AT&T and now focuses on strategic AI-related services, which reached about 53% of Business segment revenue in the second quarter of 2026 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company operates a globally scaled fiber network and an integrated service portfolio, giving it a solid base for enterprise connectivity 1.
- Growth in strategic services and NaaS adoption shows that newer products are gaining share in the customer base 3.
- The sale of the Mass Markets business brought liquidity and simplified the structure, which could support debt reduction 12.
Weaknesses
- Legacy service revenue continues to decline, affecting margins and total revenue 1.
- The company has reported net losses in recent quarters and has recorded impairment and divestiture-related costs 23.
- The high debt level and the relatively low share price may limit access to capital through equity issuance 1.
Opportunities
- Demand for AI and cloud connectivity could open new revenue streams if the strategic services push materializes 13.
- Monetizing network assets through PCF solutions could generate additional revenue from existing conduit and fiber 1.
- Integrating Alkira could extend digital capabilities and accelerate adoption of programmable network services 23.
Risks
- Decline of legacy revenuehigh
Continued shrinkage of voice and access services could reduce revenue faster than new services grow 1.
- Execution of digital transformationhigh
Systems integration and platform modernization could be delayed or exceed budget, with effects on service delivery 1.
- Cyber riskshigh
The company is a frequent target of sophisticated attacks, and a major incident could affect its reputation and financial results 1.
- Weaker-than-expected AI demandmedium
If AI-related demand does not materialize at the expected level, the company could misallocate resources and miss growth objectives 1.
- Pressure on build costsmedium
Higher labor, material and supply chain costs could delay PCF projects and reduce profitability 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The rising share of strategic services and rapid NaaS adoption suggest the transformation strategy is starting to produce results 3.
- The sale of the Mass Markets business and the Alkira acquisition point to a clearer focus on enterprise and AI services, which could support long-term growth 23.
- A globally scaled fiber infrastructure and reaffirmed free cash flow guidance could give the company flexibility for investment and debt reduction 13.
What would break the thesis
- Total revenue declined in 2025 and in early 2026, and legacy services continue to contract 13.
- The company reports net losses and high debt could limit financial options if the transformation is delayed 13.
- Competition and pricing pressure could prevent margin recovery, especially if new services carry lower margins 1.
What to watch
- Trajectory of strategic services share of Business revenueQ3 2026
- Delivery against 2026 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow2026
- Integration of Alkira and its effect on digital revenuenext 10-K
- Evolution of legacy revenue after the Mass Markets saleQ4 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 04 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results), 10-Q (04 Nov 2026).
The business
Lumen Technologies, Inc. describes its business as a digital networking services company empowering enterprise businesses to grow in a multi-cloud, AI-first marketplace by connecting people, data and applications 1. The company operates one of the world's most interconnected communications networks, with over 340,000 route miles of fiber optic cable globally as of December 31, 2025 1. The flagship Lumen brand serves enterprise and wholesale markets, with Edge, Network-as-a-Service and cybersecurity as priority services; CenturyLink manages copper-based services for cash flow, and Black Lotus Labs is the cyberthreat research arm 1.
The company grew mainly through acquisitions, including Embarq, Qwest and Level 3, and made several divestitures, including its Latin American business, its EMEA business and, in February 2026, its Mass Markets Fiber-to-the-Home business in 11 states, sold to AT&T for gross cash proceeds of 5.75 billion dollars 1. In May 2026 its subsidiary Level 3 agreed to acquire Alkira for 487 million dollars in cash, a deal that closed on July 1, 2026 2.
As of December 31, 2025 the company had about 24,000 employees globally, and about 20% of its U.S. workforce was represented by a union 1. Its strategy shifts from declining legacy services toward growth products such as dark fiber, edge cloud, IP, VoIP, managed security and SD-WAN 1.
Segments
Mass Markets
The Mass Markets segment served residential and small business customers and had revenue of 2.507 billion dollars in 2025 1. After the February 2026 sale to AT&T, quarterly revenue from this segment fell to 361 million dollars in the second quarter of 2026 3, and the company expects to have one reporting segment after the sale 1.
Market context
Lumen operates in the market for high-capacity, low-latency enterprise connectivity, supported by enterprise digital transformation and the bandwidth demands created by artificial intelligence 1. The company expects continued demand for such connectivity, supported by government broadband programs 2. The market is marked by pricing pressure and declining legacy service revenue 1.
The share of strategic services in Business revenue is a key indicator of the company's direction, and growth in cloud and AI networking demand could accelerate revenue growth if adoption continues as management expects 3.
Trends
- Adoption of digital networking servicestailwind
The company reports more than 3,000 NaaS customers and quarter-over-quarter growth in adoption, with new customer adoption up 22% and active ports up 34% 3. If this adoption continues, it could offset the decline of legacy services.
- Decline of legacy servicesheadwind
Voice, network access and private line services continue to shrink, and Business revenue has declined as well, pressuring margins 12. This decline could continue if the shift to new services does not advance fast enough.
- Demand created by artificial intelligencemixed
Growth in AI products has raised demand for higher speeds and lower latency, and the company is building a platform for this demand 1. However, if AI-related demand is weaker than expected, resources could be misallocated 1.
- Build costs and supply chainheadwind
Rising labor, materials and energy costs and shortages of critical components have slowed some network expansion and raised operating costs 2. Prolonged geopolitical instability could affect the supply chain 2.
Competitive position
Lumen faces intense competition from a wide range of providers, including companies with substitute products for legacy wireline services, operators with newer systems, greater financial resources and stronger customer relationships 1. Competitors may offer lower prices or operate under fewer regulatory constraints, which could affect the company's margins 1.
Competitive pressure is amplified by several rivals investing substantial resources in advanced AI and cloud services, which could limit Lumen's ability to retain existing customers and win new ones 1.
- Nationwide telecommunications carriers
The source refers to competitors with broader portfolios and greater financial resources without naming them in the provided texts.
- Wireless and cable broadband providers
The source indicates that wireless broadband and other communications services partly substitute for the company's fixed services.
- Cloud and connectivity providers for hyperscalers
The source links competition to the ability to offer advanced connectivity and cloud solutions, an area where several players invest heavily.
- Managed security service providers
The source mentions competition in enterprise security services, a segment with numerous and diverse providers.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Startup-ul clujean .lumen câştigă competiţia din cadrul Glovo Startup Campus de la Barcelona, după victoria obţinută la Tech Catalyst RomâniaZiarul Financiar · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- Startup-ul clujean .lumen (dotLumen) câștigă și competiția Glovo de la Barcelona, după cea din RomâniaStartupCafe.ro · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- ZF IT Generation. Cornel Amariei, fondator şi CEO al .lumen, start-up care dezvoltă ochelari AI pentru nevăzători: Vizăm proiecte-pilot cu roboţi la Cluj în trimestrul I din 2027. „Vom adăuga software care să-i facă autonomi”Ziarul Financiar · 13 Oct 2026 · RO
- Start-up-ul clujean .lumen, câștigătorul competiției internaționale Glovo Startup Campus 2026. Cornel Amariei, fondator: „Premiul ne arată cât de importantă este tehnologia integrată în ochelari. Vrem să o folosim pe roboți”Economedia · 11 Oct 2026 · RO
- Start-up-ul .lumen din Cluj a câştigat competiţia internaţională de start-up-uri a Glovo de la Barcelona. Compania vrea să integreze tehnologia pentru nevăzători în roboţi de livrare. Sascha Michaud, cofondator Glovo către echipa din România: „Pare că vă pricepeţi la ceea ce faceţi, poate îmi veţi fi voi mentori”Ziarul Financiar · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Start-up-ul .lumen din Cluj a câştigat competiţia internaţională de start-up-uri a Glovo de la Barcelona. Compania vrea să integreze tehnologia pentru nevăzători în roboţi de livrare. Sacha Michaud, cofondator Glovo către echipa din România: „Pare că vă pricepeţi la ceea ce faceţi, poate îmi veţi fi voi mentori”Ziarul Financiar · 09 Oct 2026 · RO
- Conformational switch of NPC1 epitomizes a lumen-to-membrane alternating access model for nonpolar substratesPNAS · 06 Oct 2026 · EN
- Startup-ul românesc .lumen, premiat la un eveniment important din GermaniaStartupCafe.ro · 29 Sept 2026 · RO
- Tech Catalyst România 2026 și-a desemnat câștigătorul: startup-ul .lumen câștigă cu o tehnologie AI pentru mobilitatea persoanelor nevăzătoareHotNews.ro · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Tech Catalyst România 2026 și-a desemnat câștigătorul: startup-ul .lumen câștigă cu o tehnologie AI pentru mobilitatea persoanelor nevăzătoareStartupCafe.ro · 24 Sept 2026 · RO
- Startup-ul clujean .lumen (dotLumen), premiat de Glovo cu 5.000 EUR la competiția Tech Catalyst România 2026StartupCafe.ro · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- LISTĂ 2026: 5 startup-uri românești, printre care .lumen, finaliste în competiția Glovo Tech Catalyst România. Premiu de 5.000 EUR și un program de antreprenoriat la BarcelonaStartupCafe.ro · 21 Sept 2026 · RO
- Lumen Technologies Maps AI Networking Growth Strategy at Citi ConferenceYahoo Finance — News · 11 Sept 2026 · EN
- Startup-ul românesc .lumen (dotLumen), selectat într-un program guvernamental din Coreea de Sud. Cornel Amariei: „Primul startup românesc”StartupCafe.ro · 10 Sept 2026 · RO
- Flow-driven lumen remodeling and valve opening in the vas deferensPNAS · 08 Sept 2026 · EN
- Startup-ul românesc .lumen (dotLumen) își extinde activitatea în Japonia, alături de ToyotaStartupCafe.ro · 20 Aug 2026 · RO
- From 17,000 to 1.1 Million Assets: How Lumen Technologies Rebuilt Exposure Management at ScaleThe Hacker News · 10 Jul 2026 · RO
The latest news item in our archive is from 16 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report04 Nov 2026
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Oct 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Sept 2026Delisting notice · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report04 Aug 2026
- Current report04 Aug 2026Results of operations · Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report27 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Lumen Technologies, Inc. · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Lumen Technologies, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lumen Technologies, Inc. · 04 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.