olivLaw · US equity research
Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) TDS
Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) · SIC 4813 · Vertical: Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) (SIC 4813)
TDS is a telecommunications company operating through TDS Telecom, a provider of broadband, video, voice and wireless services in small and rural communities, and through Array, which owns a tower portfolio and completed most of its spectrum sales in 2026. The company is in transition to a smaller structure where fiber investment and tower monetization define short-term strategy. Consolidated revenue for the second quarter of 2026 reached 309.3 million USD, and TDS Telecom guidance was raised for fiber, with 250000 - 300000 marketable fiber service addresses expected in 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) (TDS) stock was 36.01 USD (+1.09% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.8 bn USD, P/E 11.4 on diluted EPS of 3.15 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.44%, beta 0.73, 52-week range 32.98–47.59 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 309.3 m USD (+3.6% YoY), net income of 298.4 m USD (+2,478.6% YoY), diluted EPS 2.42 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 56.2
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 32.81 – 36.34
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.91 · band width 10.2%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 35.33 / 39.47
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.11 / -0.10
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.6% | −1.1% | +3.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.8% | −0.5% | +2.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −20.9% | +4.4% | −25.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −12.2% | +12.3% | −24.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −8.5% | +13.5% | −22.1 pp | −14.4% |
| 3 years | +85.1% | +76.4% | +8.7 pp | +3.2% |
| 5 years | +84.1% | +63.7% | +20.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 327.5 m | 295.3 m | 290.4 m | 298.5 m | 308.5 m | 330.7 m | 309.5 m | 309.3 m |
| SG&A | 116.6 m | 116.0 m | 116.4 m | 108.6 m | 106.2 m | 103.9 m | 102.7 m | 111.5 m |
| Operating income | -149.7 m | 16.9 m | -33.9 m | -12.3 m | -68.0 m | 16.8 m | 143.8 m | 373.2 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 80.9 m | 44.5 m | 84.3 m | 86.0 m | 91.7 m | 41.3 m | 85.9 m | 88.8 m |
| Interest expense | 32.7 m | 29.7 m | 23.9 m | 29.2 m | 47.3 m | 12.3 m | 5.3 m | 11.4 m |
| Pre-tax income | -130.0 m | 35.2 m | -12.3 m | 10.0 m | 6.0 m | 85.3 m | 233.8 m | 447.7 m |
| Income tax | -30.7 m | 14.7 m | -8.1 m | -4.2 m | -72.8 m | 22.9 m | 54.4 m | 106.4 m |
| Net income | -65.7 m | 5.9 m | 7.5 m | 11.6 m | -81.8 m | 56.5 m | 144.6 m | 298.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.73 | 0.05 ≈ | -0.09 | -0.05 | -0.84 | 0.48 ≈ | 1.09 | 2.42 |
| Operating cash flow | 307.1 m ≈ | 212.8 m | 185.6 m | 421.7 m ≈ | -37.0 m ≈ | 19.6 m | 67.5 m | 55.6 m ≈ |
| Capex | -181.8 m ≈ | 96.2 m | 64.4 m | 86.1 m ≈ | 111.6 m ≈ | 128.5 m | 149.0 m | 168.9 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 21.5 m ≈ | 21.9 m | 21.9 m | 21.9 m ≈ | 22.0 m ≈ | 21.9 m | 21.9 m | 21.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | — | 67.4 m | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 12 percentile of its own 26-quarter history (min 8.6, median 20.5, max 140.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | ⚠ 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.1 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.3% | +1.3% | +0.9% | +2.0% | +1.6% | — | −4.3% | −5.3% |
| Net income | 135.0 m | 121.0 m | 226.0 m | 156.0 m | 62.0 m | -500.0 m | -27.7 m | -6.2 m |
| Net income YoY | −11.8% | −10.4% | +86.8% | −31.0% | −60.3% | — | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.17 | 1.03 | 1.93 | 1.00 | -0.07 | -5.05 | -0.85 | -0.65 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −14.6% | −12.0% | +87.4% | −48.2% | −107.0% | — | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.1% | -36.9% | -2.1% | -0.5% |
| Free cash flow | 241.0 m | 59.0 m | 194.0 m | -28.0 m | -6.0 m | 498.1 m | 780.4 m | 199.4 m |
The series breaks before 2023: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 766.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 5.3 m USD
- Net debt
- -760.7 m USD
- Equity
- 5.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 8.4 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.00x
- Current ratio
- 2.10x
- ROE
- -0.1%
- ROA
- -0.1%
- FCF margin
- 16.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.2 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 488.8 m | 486.7 m | 435.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 259.0 m | 261.0 m | 122.0 m | -682.6 m | -191.3 m | -97.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 862.0 m | 851.0 m | 882.0 m | 270.5 m | 285.4 m | 303.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.0 bn ≈ | -412.1 m ≈ | 94.1 m ≈ | 206.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 168.0 m | 232.0 m | 174.0 m | 62.2 m | 108.6 m | 112.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 288.0 m | 221.0 m | 125.0 m | -563.5 m | -103.4 m | 89.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 19.0 m | 33.0 m | 53.0 m | -15.8 m | -22.1 m | -62.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 226.0 m | 156.0 m | 62.0 m | -500.0 m | -27.7 m | -6.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.93 | 1.00 | -0.07 | -5.05 | -0.85 | -0.65 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 115.0 m | 116.0 m | 114.0 m | 112.8 m | 113.7 m | 118.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.68 | 0.70 | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.31 | 0.16 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.4 bn | 367.0 m | 360.0 m | 236.0 m | 363.6 m | 766.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 992.0 m | 57.1 m | 68.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 154.0 m | 178.0 m | 268.0 m | 208.0 m | 4.1 m | 4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 923.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 4.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 547.0 m | 547.0 m | 547.0 m | 0 | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2024verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 213.0 m | 197.0 m | 204.0 m | 183.0 m | 160.8 m | 131.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 12.5 bn | 13.5 bn | 14.6 bn | 8.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 8.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 5.0 m | 6.0 m | 19.0 m | 26.0 m | 31.1 m | 5.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 440.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 5.6 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.0 bn | 5.9 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 589.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.3 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 643.1 m | 365.4 m | 390.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 194.0 m ≈ | -28.0 m ≈ | -6.0 m ≈ | 498.1 m ≈ | 780.4 m ≈ | 199.4 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.5 bn | -2.5 bn | -1.8 bn | -1.3 bn | -754.5 m | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 957.0 m | 321.0 m | 613.0 m | 56.0 m | -277.5 m | -2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 78.0 m | 119.0 m | 151.0 m | 152.7 m | 104.4 m | 87.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 14.0 m | 8.0 m | 40.0 m | 5.8 m | 0 | 108.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 63 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 1.8 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation63
- Balance sheet91
- Quality50
- Growth0
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 22.32 – 169.28 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDA73.92 – 169.28 (Mid 103.42)6 companies used · median multiple 3.8x · quartiles 1.9x – 8.1xATNI, LUMN, SHEN, T, UNIT, VZ
- Peers: P/E22.32 – 73.20 (Mid 37.10)7 companies used · median multiple 11.8x · quartiles 7.1x – 23.2xATEX, ATNI, CXDO, IDT, T, UNIT, VZ
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate2.10 – 2.83 (Mid 2.41)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 63/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 9.4% | 54 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 33.2% | 95 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -108.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -39.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -2.8x | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.1x | 71 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 3.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.4x | 75 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | -0.5x | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -25.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 10.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation63/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
TELEPHONE AND DATA SYSTEMS, INC. (TDS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -5.3%; net margin 33.2%; ROE 8.2%; net debt/EBITDA -2.8x.
The estimated value range is 48.12–121.24 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 70.26 USD, the price of 36.01 USD leaves a potential of 95.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 48.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 63/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 33.2%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -2.8x
- Interest coverage: 6.1x
- Current ratio: 3.8x
- P/E (TTM): 11.4x
- EV/EBITDA: -0.5x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 10.9%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: -108.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -39.0%
- FCF yield: -25.2%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Telephone Communications (No Radiotelephone) (SIC 4813) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMXAmerica Movil Sab De Cv | 1,508.4 bn | 1,107.5 | 6.8% | 3.2% | −11.2% | +8% / +38% |
| VZVerizon Communications Inc. | 191.4 bn | 11.8 | 15.4% | 11.8% | +2.5% | +12% / +20% |
| TAt&T Inc. | 147.1 bn | 11.8 | 10.5% | 10.2% | +2.7% | −16% / +32% |
| LUMNLumen Technologies, Inc. | 4.6 bn | — | — | -5.8% | −5.4% | −45% / +241% |
| TDSTelephone And Data Systems, Inc. | 4.1 bn | 11.4 | 8.2% | 33.2% | −5.3% | −9% / +85% |
| ATEXAnterix Inc. | 1.5 bn | 22.2 | 27.9% | 933.0% | +7.8% | +278% / +138% |
| UNITUniti Group Inc. | 1.3 bn | 1.7 | 666.9% | 30.4% | +91.5% | −14% / −41% |
| SHENShenandoah Telecommunications Company | 575.2 m | — | -4.4% | -10.2% | +9.1% | −5% / −53% |
| ATNIAtn International, Inc. | 397.3 m | 2.4 | 32.2% | 23.2% | −0.2% | +22% / −15% |
| CXDOCrexendo, Inc. | 174.7 m | 43.6 | 5.6% | 4.5% | +12.0% | −25% / +78% |
| NXPLNextPlat Corp | 21.8 m | — | -43.1% | -17.8% | −17.8% | +34% / −47% |
| IQSTIQSTEL Inc. | 9.0 m | — | -56.0% | -2.2% | +11.9% | −80% / −94% |
| SURGSurgepays, Inc. | 8.2 m | — | — | -47.9% | −6.4% | −92% / −98% |
| PHIPLDT Inc. | — | — | 29.3% | 14.9% | +2.8% | −19% / −22% |
| CTGGQwest Corp | 0 | — | -15.8% | -40.1% | −13.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| KTKT Corporation | — | — | 2.8% | 1.7% | +0.4% | +1% / +41% |
| BCEBce Inc. | — | — | 32.5% | 26.6% | +0.2% | −10% / −46% |
| IDTIDT Corporation | — | 24.3 | 25.4% | 6.7% | +5.4% | +69% / +186% |
| TKCTurkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A S | — | — | 10.8% | 11.7% | +14.6% | −15% / −5% |
| TEOTelecom Argentina SA | — | — | -2.4% | -2.0% | +53.0% | −17% / +26% |
| TIMBTim S.A. | — | — | 17.1% | 16.2% | +4.6% | −22% / +3% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TDS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 51.23 Total return 43% · Per year 43% | 91.03 Total return 154% · Per year 154% | 137.74 Total return 284% · Per year 284% |
| 3 years | 40.68 Total return 15% · Per year 5% | 82.15 Total return 131% · Per year 32% | 137.74 Total return 287% · Per year 57% |
| 5 years | 32.30 Total return -7% · Per year -1% | 74.14 Total return 111% · Per year 16% | 137.74 Total return 289% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 20.54
- Net margin± 14.38
- Annual revenue growth± 12.98
- Annual dilution± 1.21
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
TDS is a telecommunications company operating through TDS Telecom, a provider of broadband, video, voice and wireless services in small and rural communities, and through Array, which owns a tower portfolio and completed most of its spectrum sales in 2026. The company is in transition to a smaller structure where fiber investment and tower monetization define short-term strategy. Consolidated revenue for the second quarter of 2026 reached 309.3 million USD, and TDS Telecom guidance was raised for fiber, with 250000 - 300000 marketable fiber service addresses expected in 2026.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a modernized fiber and cable network with redundant IP routing capacity that supports new services and a solid position in rural and suburban areas.
- The tower portfolio benefits from long-term contracts with major mobile operators, high renewal rates and space available for additional colocations.
- The control structure through the TDS Voting Trust and the majority stake in Array provide a coherent strategic direction and flexibility in managing assets.
Weaknesses
- The company's scale has shrunk after the sale of wireless operations, which can create operational and cost disadvantages compared with the earlier period.
- Video and voice services keep declining, and the MVNO packages depend on third parties to deliver wireless service to customers.
- Array carries wind-down costs and obligations for decommissioning towers without tenants, which could weigh on cash flows.
Opportunities
- If marketable fiber addresses grow as guided, TDS Telecom could widen its residential customer base with high-speed services.
- Array can raise revenue through new colocations on towers with available space and by renegotiating ground leases in its favor.
- Monetizing remaining spectrum and the proposal to acquire Array shares held by other shareholders could unlock value for shareholders if the transactions are completed.
Threats
- Intense competition from cable operators, fiber overbuilders and satellite providers could pressure prices and margins.
- Array's dependence on a small number of large tenants, especially the MLA with T-Mobile, could affect revenue if they change their plans.
- Unfinished spectrum transactions and regulatory approvals could delay or reduce the funds the company expects to receive.
Risks
- Dependence on T-Mobilehigh
Array depends heavily on T-Mobile through its long-term MLA; if the operator fails to meet its lease obligations, the impact on financial results could be significant.
- Completion of spectrum salesmedium
Some spectrum transactions remain subject to regulatory approval and closing conditions; if they are not completed, the expected funds may not become available.
- Fiber construction costsmedium
Delays, labor or equipment shortages and reliance on third parties for permits could raise costs and postpone network expansion.
- Competitive pressure on towersmedium
Growing competition from larger operators could lead to lower lease prices and lower occupancy rates over the longer term.
- Fixed escalators and inflationlow
Most ground and colocation contracts carry fixed escalators; if ground escalators rise faster than colocation escalators, Array's margins could be affected.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Growth in fiber addresses and tower occupancy could support higher revenue and EBITDA in the coming period.
- Completing spectrum sales and paying special dividends could return significant funds to shareholders if current conditions hold.
- The proposal to acquire Array shares held by other shareholders could simplify the structure and could raise value for TDS shareholders.
What would break the thesis
- Declines in video and voice and competitive pressure could keep reducing legacy revenue at TDS Telecom.
- Reliance on a single major tenant for Array could become a vulnerability if the contractual relationship changes.
- Wind-down, decommissioning and heavy fiber investment could limit the cash available for shareholders.
What to watch
- Pace of marketable fiber addresses against the 250000 - 300000 guidance2026
- Closing of remaining spectrum sales and use of the proceedsQ3 2026
- Outcome of the special committee's review of the proposal to acquire Array shares2026
- Trend in tower occupancy and colocation revenuenext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
TDS Telecom's strategy rests on investment in fiber networks, with speeds up to 8 Gbps for residential customers, and on bundles that link broadband with video, voice and MVNO wireless. The company is extending its footprint through fiber in Wisconsin and the Pacific Northwest and wants to grow revenue from services not tied to legacy copper and cable networks. Investment has risen: capital expenditures from continuing operations were 436.559 million USD in 2025.
Array sold its wireless operations and part of its spectrum to T-Mobile on 1 August 2025 for total consideration of 4293.8 million USD, and afterwards focuses on leasing towers and monetizing remaining spectrum. In 2026 Array completed the sale of most of its remaining spectrum, and a special committee is evaluating a non-binding TDS proposal to acquire the Array shares held by other shareholders.
Segments
TDS Telecom
The TDS Telecom segment generated 1038.358 million USD in operating revenues in fiscal 2025, 2% less than in 2024, reflecting legacy declines and asset sales. In the second quarter of 2026 service revenue fell 6%, while residential fiber revenue grew 13%, and 2026 revenue guidance is 1000 - 1025 million USD.
Market context
The US telecom tower market remains dominated by a few large operators, and infrastructure demand is supported by rising mobile data consumption. Array owns the fifth largest shared tower portfolio in the country, with a lower tenancy rate than competitors, leaving room for new tenants. In fixed broadband, competition is intensifying, with cable operators, fiber providers and wireless carriers extending networks into areas TDS serves.
Rural and suburban broadband benefits from federal and state funding, including ACAM and E-ACAM programs, and from venture and private equity investment in overbuilding. For TDS Telecom, demand for fiber and bundled packages remains strong, while video continues to decline because of cord-cutting and higher prices.
Trends
- Rising mobile data demandtailwind
Growing mobile data consumption supports demand for colocations on towers, and Array sees room for new tenants on its portfolio, which could support revenue growth.
- Fiber expansiontailwind
Fiber lets TDS Telecom offer higher speeds and grow its footprint, and rising marketable addresses could gradually shift the customer base toward higher-margin services.
- Decline of video and voiceheadwind
Video connections are falling because of price and cord-cutting, and voice is eroding due to alternative technologies, which could pressure legacy revenue at TDS Telecom.
- Cost and capital pressuremixed
Higher capital spending on fiber and inflation could reduce returns on investment, and the company could need to revisit expansion plans if costs keep rising.
Competitive position
In broadband and video, TDS Telecom competes with cable operators, fiber providers, incumbent carriers, and wireless and satellite providers, and price pressure can affect margins. Competition turns on network reliability, speeds, product range and customer service.
In towers, Array competes with large and regional operators, build-to-suit providers and owners of non-telecom infrastructure such as rooftops and utility towers. Key factors are tower location, speed of deployment and lease structure, and larger competitors have greater financial resources and scale.
- American Tower CorporationAMT
One of the largest US tower operators, with national scale and greater financial resources than Array, named as a direct competitor for tower space leasing.
- Crown Castle IncCCI
A large US tower and infrastructure operator that competes with Array for tenants and colocation contracts.
- SBA Communications CorporationSBAC
A major wireless tower operator with strong positions in attractive locations, which can limit Array's ability to attract new tenants.
- regional cable and fiber operators
Regional cable companies, fiber overbuilders and incumbent providers that compete with TDS Telecom on broadband and bundled packages in its operating areas.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report02 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
- Current report07 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report01 Jun 2026Acquisition or disposition of assets · Other events
- Current report26 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report08 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement08 Apr 2026
- Current report24 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) · 24 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) · 07 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.