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olivLaw · US equity research

Luxfer Holdings PLC LXFR

Industrial Inorganic Chemicals · SIC 2810 · Vertical: Industrial Inorganic Chemicals (SIC 2810)

17.31USD+0.64% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Luxfer is a UK-incorporated industrial company listed in New York that makes magnesium alloys, zirconium compounds and high-pressure gas cylinders for defense, healthcare, transport and industry. Net sales from continuing operations were 384.6 million USD in fiscal 2025, and in July 2026 the company agreed a deal under which shareholders would receive 17.37 USD in cash per share.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Luxfer Holdings PLC (LXFR) stock was 17.31 USD (+0.64% on the day), with market capitalisation 463.2 m USD, P/E 76.3 on diluted EPS of 0.23 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.01%, beta 1.10, 52-week range 11.51–19.08 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 91.7 m USD (−4.1% YoY), net income of 900.0 k USD (−66.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.03 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
463.2 m USD
shares as of 27 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
76.3
Diluted EPS TTM 0.23 · TTM to 27 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
1.31%
TTM to 27 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.01%
DPS 12m 0.52
Beta (2y)
1.10
Volatility (1y) 33%
52-week range
11.5119.08

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
58.1
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
17.20 – 17.30
above the upper band · %B 1.10 · band width 0.6%
SMA 50 / 200
17.24 / 15.77
uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.00 / 0.01
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+0.3%−1.1%+1.4 pp—
3 months+1.2%−0.5%+1.7 pp—
6 months+9.4%+4.4%+5.0 pp—
Year to date+27.9%+12.3%+15.6 pp—
1 year+40.0%+13.5%+26.5 pp+20.0%
3 years+100.8%+76.4%+24.4 pp+17.9%
5 years−21.4%+63.7%−85.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.0%
22 Jan 2026 → 20 Mar 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−67.3%
11 Nov 2021 → 13 Feb 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
−4.7%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Sept 2026

Revenue
91.7 m USD
−4.1% YoY
Net income
900.0 k USD
−66.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.03
−70.0% YoY
net / operating
1.0% / 3.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue103.4 m97.0 m106.6 m95.6 m83.9 m83.9 m95.7 m91.7 m
Cost of revenue80.5 m75.6 m81.9 m72.8 m63.7 m62.0 m71.2 m69.3 m
Gross profit22.9 m21.4 m24.7 m22.8 m20.2 m21.9 m24.5 m22.4 m
Research & development1.1 m1.1 m1.1 m900.0 k1.2 m1.4 m1.6 m1.4 m
SG&A13.2 m12.6 m13.5 m11.8 m10.8 m11.4 m12.3 m11.8 m
Operating income4.0 m7.6 m5.2 m5.6 m5.6 m6.2 m7.8 m2.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation2.6 m2.4 m2.5 m2.6 m2.4 m———
Interest expense1.1 m800.0 k900.0 k700.0 k700.0 k700.0 k1.0 m1.0 m
Pre-tax income3.7 m7.4 m4.9 m5.5 m4.4 m5.5 m6.7 m1.7 m
Income tax400.0 k1.9 m2.3 m2.8 m2.1 m1.7 m1.9 m800.0 k
Net income3.5 m5.5 m2.6 m2.7 m-3.1 m3.6 m4.8 m900.0 k
Diluted EPS0.13 ≈0.200.100.10-0.11 ≈0.130.180.03
Operating cash flow25.5 m5.4 m1.2 m ≈11.6 m ≈15.8 m-4.1 m2.7 m ≈15.6 m ≈
Capex3.0 m1.2 m2.1 m ≈1.3 m ≈3.2 m2.0 m2.7 m ≈3.2 m ≈
Dividends paid3.5 m3.5 m3.5 m ≈3.5 m ≈3.4 m3.5 m3.4 m ≈3.4 m ≈
Share repurchases700.0 k500.0 k600.0 k ≈800.0 k ≈1.2 m700.0 k700.0 k ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 91 percentile of its own 33-quarter history (min 13.6, median 23.4, max 2,520.8; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue401.9 m373.4 m324.8 m374.1 m423.4 m405.0 m391.9 m384.6 m
Revenue YoY−8.9%−7.1%−13.0%+15.2%+13.2%−4.3%−3.2%−1.9%
Net income25.0 m3.1 m20.0 m29.9 m26.9 m-1.9 m18.4 m7.7 m
Net income YoY+50.6%−87.6%+545.2%+49.5%−10.0%−107.1%unavailable−58.2%
Diluted EPS0.900.110.721.070.98-0.070.680.28
Diluted EPS YoY+45.2%−87.8%+554.5%+48.6%−8.4%−107.1%unavailable−58.8%
net %6.2%0.8%6.2%8.0%6.4%-0.5%4.7%2.0%
Free cash flow50.0 m-7.3 m41.6 m17.0 m7.6 m16.9 m40.8 m26.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
8.3 m USD
Financial debt
39.4 m USD
Net debt
31.1 m USD
Equity
226.4 m USD
Total assets
369.7 m USD
Debt / equity
0.17x
Current ratio
1.67x
ROE
3.5%
ROA
2.0%
FCF margin
6.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
405.0 m
2024
391.9 m
2025
384.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
328.4 m
2024
306.2 m
2025
295.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
76.6 m
2024
85.7 m
2025
89.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
4.6 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
4.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
48.7 m
2024
48.1 m
2025
49.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
4.2 m
2024
30.1 m
2025
24.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
12.7 m
2024
10.1 m
2025
9.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
16.9 m ≈
2024
40.2 m ≈
2025
33.9 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
6.3 m
2024
5.2 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-9.7 m
2024
26.5 m
2025
22.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-7.1 m
2024
8.2 m
2025
9.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-1.9 m
2024
18.4 m
2025
7.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.07
2024
0.68
2025
0.28

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
27.0 m
2024
27.1 m
2025
27.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.52
2024
0.52
2025
0.52

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
2.3 m
2024
4.1 m
2025
8.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
52.3 m
2024
45.8 m
2025
44.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
95.9 m
2024
83.6 m
2025
92.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
168.8 m
2024
175.8 m
2025
164.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
63.8 m
2024
62.8 m
2025
60.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
67.5 m
2024
67.0 m
2025
69.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
12.0 m
2024
11.5 m
2025
10.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
372.1 m
2024
382.4 m
2025
369.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
26.5 m
2024
29.6 m
2025
24.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
4.6 m
2024
3.1 m
2025
25.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
67.6 m
2024
42.0 m
2025
14.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
64.8 m
2024
93.7 m
2025
98.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
159.5 m
2024
162.9 m
2025
143.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
212.6 m †
2024
219.5 m †
2025
226.4 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
26.8 m
2024
26.7 m
2025
26.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
26.3 m
2024
51.1 m
2025
34.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
9.4 m
2024
10.3 m
2025
7.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
16.9 m ≈
2024
40.8 m ≈
2025
26.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-9.5 m
2024
-3.4 m
2025
-5.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-27.5 m
2024
-44.0 m
2025
-25.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
14.0 m
2024
14.0 m
2025
13.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
2.7 m
2024
2.3 m
2025
3.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 24 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-3.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
-20.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-58.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-34.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-17.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-58.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-34.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-17.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-35.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
25.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
6.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
FCF margin
5.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROA
1.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROIC
5.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROCE
7.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
230.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
72.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
37.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
6.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
30.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
11.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
18.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
304.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
92.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
133 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
31 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
463.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
501.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
74.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
76.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
1.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
P/B
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
P/S
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
22.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
P/FCF
24.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
FCF yield
4.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
3.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
3.57
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 46 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

17.31 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 463.2 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
463.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
76.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
P/B
2.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROE
2.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Net margin
1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

37/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 27 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 27 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 27 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 1699derived 132

Score by group

  • Valuation29
  • Returns57
  • Quality80
  • Balance sheet63
  • Growth0

Estimated value range

Low
6.86
USD per share
Mid
7.86
USD per share
High
11.26
USD per share
Price: 17.31 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -54.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -120.1% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.53 – 13.36 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)7.94 – 13.36 (Mid 10.00)
    WACC 8.7% · starting FCFF 21.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 19.1%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA3.53 – 11.26 (Mid 5.97)
    4 companies used · median multiple 6.1x · quartiles 4.1x – 10.5x
    LIN, LXU, TROX, VHI
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)6.86 – 9.22 (Mid 7.86)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Industrial Inorganic Chemicals (SIC 2810)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 46/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality5.5%71 (vs peers)10%
Net margin · Quality1.7%75 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality304.8%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-3.2%0 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-34.1%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.2x40 (vs peers)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet6.6x78 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.5x100 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation76.3x0 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation15.5x40 (vs peers)10%
FCF yield · Valuation4.1%51 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns3.5%50 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns72.5%68 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet63/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth0/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality80/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns57/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation29/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

LUXFER HOLDINGS PLC (LXFR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-27.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 384.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.9%; net margin 1.7%; ROE 2.7%; net debt/EBITDA 1.2x.

The estimated value range is 6.86–11.26 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.86 USD, the price of 17.31 USD leaves a potential of -54.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -120.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 46/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 5.5%
  • Net margin: 1.7%
  • FCF conversion: 304.8%
  • Interest coverage: 6.6x
  • Current ratio: 2.5x

What contradicts it

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -3.2%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -34.1%
  • P/E (TTM): 76.3x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Versus the vertical median

Industrial Inorganic Chemicals (SIC 2810) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 9 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
76.3x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
vertical median 7.3x
above median (+113.4%)
P/S
1.3x
vertical median 1.1x
above median (+24.1%)
P/B
2.1x
vertical median 1.2x
above median (+76.0%)
ROE
2.7%
vertical median -4.8%
above median
Net margin
1.7%
vertical median -2.7%
above median
EBIT margin
6.3%
vertical median 1.0%
above median (+526.2%)
Revenue YoY
-1.9%
vertical median -0.9%
below median
Net debt/EBITDA
1.2x
vertical median -0.9x
above median
Dividend yield
3.0%
vertical median 2.3%
above median (+33.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LINLinde plc240.9 bn34.918.0%19.3%+3.0%+28% / +27%
APDAir Products And Chemicals, Inc.71.0 bn—-0.3%-0.4%−0.5%+22% / +18%
MTXMinerals Technologies Inc.2.0 bn—-4.1%-3.1%−2.2%+12% / +5%
KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.890.9 m—-13.7%-5.6%−1.5%+53% / −11%
LXULSB Industries, Inc.766.1 m17.18.7%7.0%+17.8%+19% / +24%
TROXTronox Holdings PLC566.9 m—-39.1%-18.0%−5.7%−14% / −72%
LXFRLuxfer Holdings PLC463.2 m76.32.7%1.7%−1.9%+40% / +101%
VHIValhi, Inc.430.8 m—-4.8%-2.4%−1.3%+20% / +12%
NLNli Holdings, Inc.359.9 m—-6.7%-15.8%+8.5%+30% / +44%
LTBRLightbridge Corporation172.9 m—-14.1%—unavailable−73% / +39%

1- and 3-year price returns: for LXFR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
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Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
9.64
Total return -43% · Per year -43%
17.12
Total return 0% · Per year 0%
25.88
Total return 51% · Per year 51%
3 years
7.98
Total return -51% · Per year -21%
16.06
Total return -3% · Per year -1%
26.84
Total return 60% · Per year 17%
5 years
6.60
Total return -58% · Per year -16%
15.06
Total return -7% · Per year -1%
27.85
Total return 69% · Per year 11%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 4.01
  • Net margin± 2.81
  • Annual revenue growth± 2.49
  • Annual dilution± 0.24

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

In brief

Luxfer is a UK-incorporated industrial company listed in New York that makes magnesium alloys, zirconium compounds and high-pressure gas cylinders for defense, healthcare, transport and industry. Net sales from continuing operations were 384.6 million USD in fiscal 2025 1, and in July 2026 the company agreed a deal under which shareholders would receive 17.37 USD in cash per share 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds declared leading positions in several niche markets, such as magnesium powders for countermeasures and cylinders for breathing apparatus 1.
  • Its technical know-how and proprietary manufacturing processes support higher value-added products 1.
  • The customer base is geographically diversified and includes long-standing relationships in defense and emergency response 1.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on a small number of large customers and certain suppliers means losing one contract could have significant effects 1.
  • Net income from continuing operations declined in 2025 compared with the prior year, while restructuring costs rose 1.
  • Exposure to exchange rate movements between sterling and the dollar affects reported results 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand for composite cylinders could grow if hydrogen infrastructure develops 1.
  • Defense and space programs may provide additional volume for magnesium alloys 1.
  • Footprint optimization and automation programs could improve margins if completed 2.

Threats

  • Tariffs and export restrictions on rare materials can raise costs and reduce availability 1.
  • A decline in automotive demand for catalysts could reduce Elektron sales 1.
  • UK pension obligations may require additional funding if markets deteriorate 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on large customershigh

    A small number of customers account for a significant share of sales, and losing or reducing orders from one of them could affect results 1.

  • Tariffs and trade restrictionshigh

    Trade measures between the United States and China can raise input costs and disrupt supply of rare materials 1.

  • The proposed takeovermedium

    Completion depends on conditions that are not assured, and if the deal fails or is delayed, the company could be left with costs and uncertainty 2.

  • Pension obligationsmedium

    The UK Pensions Regulator has wide powers that could create additional obligations for the group 1.

  • Currency movementslow

    Revenue and costs in different currencies can change reported dollar results, and hedging does not fully offset them 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If demand from defense and aerospace remains solid, the company's niche products could support margins over the medium term 1.
  • The takeover agreement sets a fixed cash value per share, which reduces uncertainty for shareholders if the deal completes 2.
  • Efficiency and margin programs, if carried through, could support profitability even with lower volumes 2.

What would break the thesis

  • Sales fell in the second quarter of 2026, and if the trend persists, results could stay below the prior year 2.
  • Trade tensions and restrictions on rare materials may raise costs by more than can be passed on to customers 1.
  • If the takeover does not complete, the company could bear transaction costs and face an uncertain outlook 2.

What to watch

  • Completion of the takeover agreement and shareholder vote2026
  • Gross margin and sales trends in the Elektron segmentQ3 2026
  • Impact of tariffs and restrictions on rare materialsnext 10-K
  • Completion of the planned sale of the Superform U.S. business2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

The business

Luxfer Holdings PLC describes itself as a global industrial company focused on niche applications in advanced materials engineering, with products including magnesium alloys and powders, zirconium-based chemicals, aluminum and composite cylinders and carbon composite technologies 1. It sold its Graphic Arts business in July 2025 and now reports two segments: Elektron and Gas Cylinders 1.

Production is global, with the company operating 13 facilities in 2025 in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and China, plus a joint venture in Japan 1. The annual report shows Elektron generating a larger share of sales than Gas Cylinders, and dependence on a few large customers and on suppliers of carbon fiber and aluminum remains central to the model 1.

Second-quarter 2026 results show lower sales but higher operating income, suggesting that efficiency measures can partly offset lower volumes 2. With the announced deal, the future of the ownership structure is central to any long-term view of the company 2.

Segments

Elektron

The Elektron segment develops and manufactures specialty materials based on magnesium and zirconium for defense, aerospace, transport, energy and industry. It represented 51% of consolidated net sales from continuing operations in 2025 1. The range includes aerospace magnesium alloys, powders for military countermeasures and zirconium chemicals for automotive catalytic converters 1.

Gas Cylinders

The Gas Cylinders segment makes high-pressure containers from aluminum and carbon composite for self-contained breathing apparatus, compressed natural gas and hydrogen vehicles, aviation, space and medical oxygen 1. It represented 45% of consolidated net sales in 2025, and its ten largest customers accounted for about 57% of segment sales 1.

Market context

Luxfer's end markets fall into three groups: defense, first response and healthcare; transportation; and specialty industrial 1. Demand in these sectors depends on defense budgets, emissions rules and the pace of alternative fuel adoption, which can evolve differently from year to year 1.

Primary magnesium production is dominated by China, but meaningful capacity exists in Israel, Brazil, Turkey and Russia, which opens alternative sourcing options 1. Raw material markets remain volatile, and aluminum prices have generally stayed above pre-2021 historical averages 1.

Trends

  • Trade tensions and tariffsheadwind

    Tariffs between the US and China and restrictions on metals and rare materials have raised input costs and created supply uncertainty, as the company notes 1. If measures expand, costs could rise further and the company may need to change sourcing 1.

  • Stronger defense and aerospace demandtailwind

    Sales of aerospace magnesium alloys, powders and aviation and space cylinders increased in 2025, supported by military activity and space programs 1. If this demand holds, it could offset weakness in other segments 1.

  • The proposed takeovermixed

    On July 26, 2026 the company entered into an agreement with a buyer under which shareholders would receive 17.37 USD in cash per share through a scheme of arrangement 2. Completion depends on shareholder and court approvals, and if the deal does not close, the company's standalone outlook would remain in place 2.

Competitive position

In its markets Luxfer faces competitors producing related materials and gas cylinders, with competition shaped mainly by technology, product quality and customer relationships 1. The company argues its position rests on proprietary know-how and long-standing customer ties 1.

Competition in aluminum and composite cylinders and in zirconium-based materials can pressure prices and margins 1. Success factors include the ability to deliver quickly and to innovate jointly with customers 1.

  • Producers of composite and high-pressure gas cylinders

    Competitors in the Gas Cylinders segment, referred to generically in the annual report without named companies.

  • Producers of magnesium alloys and powders

    Competitors in the Elektron segment, including producers outside China, referred to in the sources without names.

  • Producers of zirconium compounds

    Competitors in auto catalysts and advanced ceramics, not named in the analyzed sources.

  • Carbon fiber suppliers

    Not direct competitors, but key suppliers whose pricing affects the Gas Cylinders segment's costs.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Luxfer Holdings PLC · 24 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / Luxfer Holdings PLC · 28 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Luxfer Holdings PLC · 30 Jul 2024

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.