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olivLaw · US equity research

Neonode Inc. NEON

Electronic Components, NEC · SIC 3679 · Vertical: Electronic Components, NEC (SIC 3679)

0.63USD−2.25% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Neonode Inc. develops machine perception technology, mainly driver and in-cabin monitoring software for the automotive industry, and earns most of its revenue by licensing it to OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers. The company is shifting from hardware products to software licensing, and its revenue fell in 2025 to 2.1 million USD, while its MultiSensing licence revenue has begun to grow strongly in 2026.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Neonode Inc. (NEON) stock was 0.63 USD (−2.25% on the day), with market capitalisation 10.5 m USD, P/E 1.2 on diluted EPS of 0.51 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.34, 52-week range 0.63–2.81 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 477.0 k USD (−20.4% YoY), net income of -2.1 m USD, diluted EPS -0.13 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
10.5 m USD
shares as of 10 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
1.2
Diluted EPS TTM 0.51 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
81.52%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
1.34
Volatility (1y) 73%
52-week range
0.632.81

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
21.3
oversold (≤ 30)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.60 – 0.90
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.08 · band width 39.8%
SMA 50 / 200
0.83 / 1.27
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.06 / -0.05
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−31.3%−1.1%−30.2 pp—
3 months−31.3%−0.5%−30.8 pp—
6 months−64.0%+4.4%−68.4 pp—
Year to date−64.0%+12.3%−76.4 pp—
1 year−77.8%+13.5%−91.4 pp+14.7%
3 years−55.6%+76.4%−132.0 pp+61.4%
5 years−93.5%+63.7%−157.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−77.7%
05 Nov 2025 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−97.9%
23 Jul 2025 → 04 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−42.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
477.0 k USD
−20.4% YoY
Net income
-2.1 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.13
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-442.6% / -486.6%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue838.0 k655.0 k513.0 k599.0 k430.0 k520.0 k614.0 k477.0 k
Cost of revenue23.0 k52.0 k9.0 k6.0 k9.0 k2.0 k4.0 k9.0 k
Gross profit815.0 k603.0 k504.0 k593.0 k421.0 k518.0 k610.0 k468.0 k
Research & development822.0 k752.0 k975.0 k1.1 m794.0 k936.0 k905.0 k1.0 m
SG&A——196.0 k—————
Operating income-1.2 m-1.7 m-2.0 m-2.1 m13.8 m-2.4 m-2.1 m-2.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation9.0 k ≈9.0 k9.0 k14.0 k ≈14.0 k ≈13.0 k16.0 k17.0 k ≈
Pre-tax income-1.1 m-1.5 m-1.8 m-2.0 m13.9 m-2.1 m-1.9 m-2.1 m
Income tax-11.0 k5.0 k-10.0 k001.0 k1.0 k1.0 k
Net income-1.1 m-1.6 m-1.7 m-1.9 m14.2 m-2.1 m-1.9 m-2.1 m
Diluted EPS-0.07-95.34 ≈-0.10-0.110.85—-0.11-0.13
Operating cash flow-1.3 m ≈-1.2 m-1.4 m-1.8 m ≈-1.5 m ≈-5.6 m-2.1 m-1.9 m ≈
Capex0 ≈040.0 k-25.0 k ≈75.0 k ≈1.0 k13.0 k1.0 k ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue8.5 m6.6 m6.0 m5.8 m5.7 m3.8 m3.1 m2.1 m
Revenue YoY−16.6%−22.2%−10.0%−2.5%−2.8%−32.5%−18.8%−33.7%
Net income-3.1 m-5.3 m-6.3 m-6.5 m-4.9 m-10.1 m-6.5 m8.5 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailable-0.54-0.36-0.66-0.410.51
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-35.8%-79.7%-105.0%-110.5%-86.1%-264.4%-208.0%411.9%
Free cash flow-3.1 m-3.6 m-5.8 munavailable-6.9 m-6.4 m-5.6 m-10.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
25.4 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
24.7 m USD
Total assets
26.9 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
12.05x
ROE
41.3%
ROA
37.5%
FCF margin
-501.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
3.8 m
2024
3.1 m
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
12.0 k
2024
116.0 k
2025
26.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.8 m
2024
3.0 m
2025
2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
3.8 m
2024
3.4 m
2025
3.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
1.5 m
2024
1.3 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Mar 2025verified

Operating income
2023
-5.7 m
2024
-6.5 m
2025
7.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
47.0 k
2024
58.0 k
2025
50.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-5.7 m ≈
2024
-6.5 m ≈
2025
7.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Mar 2022verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-5.0 m
2024
-5.9 m
2025
8.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
115.0 k
2024
15.0 k
2025
-9.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-10.1 m
2024
-6.5 m
2025
8.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.66
2024
-0.41
2025
0.51

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
15.3 k
2024
15.9 k
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 21 Mar 2025verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
16.2 m
2024
16.4 m
2025
25.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
917.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified

Inventories
2023
610.0 k
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2024verified

Current assets
2023
18.6 m
2024
17.7 m
2025
26.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
110.0 k
2024
62.0 k
2025
145.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
19.0 m
2024
18.4 m
2025
26.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
400.0 k
2024
229.0 k
2025
464.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.8 m
2024
1.6 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
1.9 m
2024
1.9 m
2025
2.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
17.2 m
2024
16.4 m †
2025
24.7 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-6.3 m
2024
-5.6 m
2025
-10.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
123.0 k
2024
37.0 k
2025
91.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-6.4 m ≈
2024
-5.6 m ≈
2025
-10.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-123.0 k
2024
152.0 k
2025
19.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
7.8 m
2024
5.8 m
2025
-11.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-33.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-28.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
-19.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
98.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
348.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
345.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
397.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-550.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
48.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
42.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
32.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
10.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
10.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-11.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
90.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-11.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-138.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
-156.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
3,635 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
10.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
77.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
5.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-107.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.63 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 10.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
10.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
48.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
397.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-33.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 10 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 12 Aug 2026
verified 2133derived 191

Score by group

72% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Electronic Components, NEC (SIC 3679)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality98.8%100 (on a fixed band)15%
EBIT margin · Quality345.6%100 (vs peers)12%
FCF margin · Quality-550.5%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-28.6%0 (on a fixed band)24%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth-33.7%8 (vs peers)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet10.9x100 (on a fixed band)9%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-107.0%0 (on a fixed band)18%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth3/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality69/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Neonode Inc. (NEON). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -33.7%; net margin 397.8%; ROE 48.6%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Gross margin: 98.8%
  • EBIT margin: 345.6%
  • Current ratio: 10.9x

What contradicts it

  • FCF margin: -550.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -28.6%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): -33.7%
  • FCF yield: -107.0%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Electronic Components, NEC (SIC 3679) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
1.3x
vertical median 30.4x
below median (−95.7%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 25.7x
P/S
5.1x
vertical median 3.8x
above median (+36.4%)
P/B
0.5x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−78.4%)
ROE
48.6%
vertical median 3.8%
above median (+1,171.8%)
Net margin
397.8%
vertical median 1.6%
above median (+25,371.1%)
EBIT margin
345.6%
vertical median 8.3%
above median (+4,040.7%)
Revenue YoY
-33.7%
vertical median 16.2%
below median (−307.7%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.2x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 0.1%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
VRTVertiv Holdings Co79.1 bn38.446.6%16.0%+27.7%+14% / +371%
AEISAdvanced Energy Industries, Inc.8.6 bn30.419.9%12.7%+21.4%+0% / +123%
PIImpinj, Inc.5.6 bn—-3.8%-2.5%−1.4%+5% / +116%
VICRVicor Corporation1.9 bn41.723.5%32.2%+26.1%+78% / +335%
VREXVarex Imaging Corp779.3 m35.44.6%2.6%+4.1%+60% / −2%
MPTIM-tron Industries, Inc.277.8 m23.512.4%16.3%+11.0%+24% / +85%
ESPEspey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.152.7 m12.920.1%24.2%+4.9%+29% / +197%
LGLLgl Group Inc84.6 m—-0.6%-5.0%−2.9%+15% / +38%
MVISMicroVision, Inc.42.2 m—-197.8%-2,230.6%−74.3%−91% / −97%
NSYSNortech Systems Incorporated31.2 m29.43.0%0.6%+723.6%+59% / +26%
OSTOstin Technology Group Co., Ltd.23.7 m—-169.1%-26.0%+22.2%−97% / −99%
NEONNeonode Inc.10.5 m1.348.6%397.8%−33.7%−78% / −56%
LPLLG Display Co., Ltd.——-37.2%-9.6%+24.8%−39% / −45%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NEON from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
0.33
Total return -47% · Per year -47%
0.59
Total return -5% · Per year -5%
0.90
Total return 44% · Per year 44%
3 years
0.27
Total return -58% · Per year -25%
0.54
Total return -14% · Per year -5%
0.90
Total return 44% · Per year 13%
5 years
0.21
Total return -66% · Per year -20%
0.48
Total return -23% · Per year -5%
0.90
Total return 44% · Per year 8%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 0.13
  • Net margin± 0.09
  • Annual revenue growth± 0.08
  • Annual dilution± 0.01

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Neonode Inc. develops machine perception technology, mainly driver and in-cabin monitoring software for the automotive industry, and earns most of its revenue by licensing it to OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers. The company is shifting from hardware products to software licensing, and its revenue fell in 2025 to 2.1 million USD 1, while its MultiSensing licence revenue has begun to grow strongly in 2026 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company holds patented technology with intellectual property rights in several jurisdictions, and a installed base of products shipped by its customers over many years.
  • Liquidity remains solid, with cash and receivables that support near-term operations, and management says it has sufficient capital for at least a year.

Weaknesses

  • Revenue is very small and falling, and the company has recorded net losses in almost every year since its founding, leaving a very large accumulated deficit.
  • Dependence on a small number of customers means that the loss of any one of them would have a major effect on revenue.
  • Research and administrative costs are large relative to revenue, and the company could need additional capital in the future.

Opportunities

  • If automotive production at customers increases, MultiSensing licences could generate higher and more stable revenue than in the past.
  • Expansion into new markets such as Japanese amusement, holographic interaction or retail self-service could open new revenue sources.
  • Strategic partnerships with other technology companies and automotive suppliers could speed up adoption and turn evaluations into commercial agreements.

Threats

  • Competition in driver monitoring is intense, and larger rivals may offer solutions at lower cost or with superior performance.
  • Geopolitical tensions and inflation could disrupt supply chains and reduce demand for customers' end products.
  • Defending patents can be costly and patents can be challenged, which could reduce the company's competitive advantage.

Risks

  • Dependence on a few customershigh

    A very small number of customers generates almost all revenue, and the loss or reduced activity of one of them could have a significant negative effect.

  • Need for additional capitalhigh

    The company has recorded losses in most years and could need further financing, which might only be available on unfavourable terms or not at all.

  • Long launch cycles of customer productsmedium

    Delays in launching customer products can postpone licence revenue and make financial results very volatile from quarter to quarter.

  • Dependence on ASIC chip suppliersmedium

    The ASICs that embed Neonode technology are made by a few third-party suppliers, and a supply problem could prevent customers from shipping products.

  • Difficulty verifying royaltieslow

    Verifying amounts owed by licensees is costly and slow, and audits can be disputed, which could lead to lost revenue.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If the growth in MultiSensing licences from the automotive industry is sustained, the company could show a successful shift to more stable and scalable software revenue.
  • The number of licence agreements is stable, and there is a prospect that new customers begin shipping products with Neonode technology.
  • Liquidity and a high gross margin model could give the company time to turn partnerships and evaluations into commercial contracts.

What would break the thesis

  • Total revenue fell in 2025 and in the first half of 2026, and if the trend persists the company could keep posting net losses and need capital.
  • Customer concentration and dependence on a few automotive programmes could make revenue very vulnerable to delays or the loss of a single customer.
  • The driver monitoring market is contested by many competitors, and if they offer cheaper solutions the company could lose position on price.

What to watch

  • Development of MultiSensing licence revenue and the number of customers shipping productsQ3 2026
  • Signing of new commercial agreements from partnerships with OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers2026
  • Cash and receivables levels, and whether new financing is needednext 10-K
  • Results of the first deliveries in the retail self-service segment, if evaluation confirms demand2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Neonode provides software solutions for machine perception that use advanced machine learning to detect and track persons and objects in video streams, based on its MultiSensing® platform 1. It phased out its TSM product business during 2024, reported as discontinued operations, and focused fully on licensing 1. In September 2025 the zForce platform was moved into maintenance mode, with no sales to new customers 1.

The revenue model rests on licence fees paid per unit when customers ship products with Neonode technology, plus non-recurring engineering services for application development 1. At December 31, 2025 the company had 36 valid technology licence agreements with OEMs, ODMs and Tier 1 suppliers 1, and the same number stood at June 30, 2026 2. The company reported 39 employees at the end of 2025 1.

The strategy aims to capture a significant share of the growing driver and in-cabin monitoring market through its machine perception business, internal innovation, co-development with customers and strategic partnerships 1. The company has also identified automated retail self-service check-out as a new vertical that could become an important growth bet if market demand is confirmed 1.

Segments

Licensing

Licence fees made up almost all revenue, at 88.4% of 2025 revenue, coming from consumer electronics, automotive and amusement customers 1. Licence revenue fell in 2025 because of weaker demand for legacy printer and passenger-car touch products 1.

Non-recurring engineering (NRE)

NRE services relate to application development and proof-of-concept projects for the zForce and MultiSensing platforms, and fell in 2025 as project deliveries declined 1. In the second quarter of 2026 NRE revenue dropped sharply year on year, which accounted for most of the decline in total revenue 3.

Market context

The customer base is narrow: four customers accounted for 95.4% of consolidated accounts receivable and unbilled revenues at December 31, 2025 1, and Seiko Epson, Alps Alpine, Hewlett-Packard and a commercial vehicle OEM each exceeded 10% of revenue in 2025 1.

Trends

  • Growth in driver monitoring systemstailwind

    The company says the driver and in-cabin monitoring market is growing and that production ramp-ups at its automotive customers are beginning to accelerate, which could support demand for MultiSensing technology 13.

  • Shift to a software licensing modelmixed

    Exiting hardware sales and focusing on licensing could reduce revenue volatility over the long term, but in the short term it lowers revenue and the number of active customers 12.

  • Geopolitical tensions and inflation pressureheadwind

    The war in Ukraine and the war with Iran have raised energy and commodity prices and could disrupt supply chains, costs and demand for technology 2.

  • Long customer development cyclesheadwind

    The typical product development and release cycle of customers lasts 18 to 36 months, which delays revenue and makes it lumpy from quarter to quarter 1.

Competitive position

Driver monitoring software competes with providers such as SmartEye, Cipia, Xperi, Seeing Machines, PUX and Jungo 1. The optical zForce technology competes with resistive and capacitive touch, other optical technologies, and ultrasonic and radar, where price, resolution and detection range are the main differentiators 1.

In gesture sensing, competitors include Ultraleap and radar and ultrasonic chip suppliers such as Texas Instruments and Acconeer 1. The company relies on a patent portfolio covering optical blocking, reflective optical technology and machine perception, but the value of that advantage may be limited 1.

  • SmartEye

    Driver and in-cabin monitoring software provider competing directly with MultiSensing in the automotive market.

  • Seeing Machines

    Driver monitoring solutions provider named among the company's Tier 2 software competitors.

  • Ultraleap

    Competitor in gesture detection, in the optical and hand-tracking sensing space.

  • Texas InstrumentsTXN

    Maker of radar and ultrasonic chips for gesture detection, and also a manufacturer of the ASIC components used in Neonode products.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Neonode Inc. · 18 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Neonode Inc. · 12 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Neonode Inc. · 12 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.