olivLaw · US equity research
O-I Glass, Inc. OI
Glass Containers · SIC 3221 · Vertical: Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx)
O-I Glass is one of the largest glass container makers in the world, with plants across the Americas and Europe. In 2026 the company cut its guidance for that year, citing weakness in Europe and high energy costs, so the Fit to Win efficiency program matters more for results. Net sales of 6,426 million USD in 2025 show the scale of the business.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, O-I Glass, Inc. (OI) stock was 5.48 USD (+7.03% on the day), with market capitalisation 843.6 m USD, dividend yield 0.91%, beta 1.11, 52-week range 5.12–16.63 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.6 bn USD (−1.8% YoY), net income of -13.0 m USD (−143.3% YoY), diluted EPS -0.08 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 5.00 – 6.70
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 29.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 6.16 / 9.32
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.22 / -0.15
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.6% | −1.1% | −0.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | −26.6% | −0.5% | −26.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −39.7% | +4.4% | −44.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −62.9% | +12.3% | −75.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −53.6% | +13.5% | −67.1 pp | −5.1% |
| 3 years | −63.3% | +76.4% | −139.8 pp | +9.5% |
| 5 years | −58.1% | +63.7% | −121.7 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn |
| Gross profit | 208.0 m | 280.0 m | 299.0 m | 300.0 m | 230.0 m | 199.0 m | 214.0 m | 195.0 m |
| Research & development | 18.0 m | 13.0 m | 11.0 m | 8.0 m | 9.0 m | 9.0 m | 9.0 m | 7.0 m |
| SG&A | 108.0 m | 109.0 m | 106.0 m | 105.0 m | 116.0 m | 99.0 m | 75.0 m | 88.0 m |
| Operating income | -125.0 m | 18.0 m | 7.0 m | 58.0 m | — | -53.0 m | -827.0 m | 34.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 117.0 m | 115.0 m | 118.0 m | 120.0 m | 126.0 m | 116.0 m | 120.0 m | 122.0 m |
| Interest expense | 83.0 m | 81.0 m | 85.0 m | 91.0 m | 84.0 m | 79.0 m | 86.0 m | 86.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -574.0 m | 209.0 m | 225.0 m | 235.0 m | -718.0 m | 142.0 m | 171.0 m | 139.0 m |
| Income tax | 24.0 m | 30.0 m | 6.0 m | 21.0 m | -3.0 m | 18.0 m | 138.0 m | 39.0 m |
| Net income | -154.0 m | -16.0 m | -5.0 m | 30.0 m | -138.0 m | -73.0 m | -972.0 m | -13.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | -1.06 ≈ | -0.10 | -0.03 | 0.19 | -0.93 ≈ | -0.48 | -6.33 | -0.08 |
| Operating cash flow | 318.0 m | -171.0 m | 155.0 m ≈ | 214.0 m ≈ | 402.0 m | -294.0 m | 94.0 m ≈ | 165.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 108.0 m | 135.0 m | 104.0 m ≈ | 100.0 m ≈ | 93.0 m | 142.0 m | 95.0 m ≈ | 81.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 10.0 m | 10.0 m | 10.0 m ≈ | 10.0 m ≈ | 10.0 m | 10.0 m | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.9 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.4 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +0.1% | −2.7% | −9.0% | +4.4% | +7.8% | +3.6% | −8.1% | −1.6% |
| Net income | 257.0 m | -400.0 m | 249.0 m | 149.0 m | 584.0 m | -103.0 m | -106.0 m | -129.0 m |
| Net income YoY | +42.8% | −255.6% | unavailable | −40.2% | +291.9% | −117.6% | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 1.59 | -2.58 | 1.57 | 0.93 | 3.67 | -0.67 | -0.69 | -0.84 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +44.5% | −262.3% | unavailable | −40.8% | +294.6% | −118.3% | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 3.7% | -6.0% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 8.5% | -1.4% | -1.6% | -2.0% |
| Free cash flow | 255.0 m | -21.0 m | 146.0 m | 289.0 m | -385.0 m | 130.0 m | -128.0 m | 168.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 759.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 5.0 bn USD
- Net debt
- 4.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.4 bn USD
- Total assets
- 9.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.46x
- Current ratio
- 1.25x
- ROE
- -9.7%
- ROA
- -1.4%
- FCF margin
- 2.6%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.9 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.5 bn | 6.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 5.1 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 972.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 75.0 m | 82.0 m | 79.0 m | 92.0 m | 80.0 m | 42.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 403.0 m | 433.0 m | 496.0 m | 540.0 m | 445.0 m | 434.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 353.0 m | 332.0 m | 805.0 m | 67.0 m | 38.0 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 468.0 m | 449.0 m | 454.0 m | 483.0 m | 486.0 m | 479.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 821.0 m ≈ | 781.0 m ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 550.0 m ≈ | 524.0 m ≈ | — | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 265.0 m | 216.0 m | 239.0 m | 342.0 m | 335.0 m | 341.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 353.0 m | 332.0 m | 960.0 m | 67.0 m | 38.0 m | -49.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 89.0 m | 167.0 m | 178.0 m | 152.0 m | 126.0 m | 54.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 249.0 m | 149.0 m | 584.0 m | -103.0 m | -106.0 m | -129.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.57 | 0.93 | 3.67 | -0.67 | -0.69 | -0.84 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 158.8 m | 160.3 m | 159.0 m | 154.7 m | 154.6 m | 153.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.05 | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2021verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 563.0 m | 725.0 m | 773.0 m | 913.0 m | 734.0 m | 759.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 623.0 m | 692.0 m | 760.0 m | 671.0 m | 572.0 m | 601.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 841.0 m | 816.0 m | 848.0 m | 1.1 bn | 963.0 m | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 2.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 325.0 m | 286.0 m | 262.0 m | 254.0 m | 198.0 m | 188.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 8.9 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.1 bn | 9.7 bn | 8.7 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 197.0 m | 72.0 m | 345.0 m | 248.0 m | 416.0 m | 162.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 4.9 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.4 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 401.0 m | 827.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 457.0 m | 687.0 m | 154.0 m | 818.0 m | 489.0 m | 600.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 311.0 m | 398.0 m | 539.0 m | 688.0 m | 617.0 m | 432.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 146.0 m ≈ | 289.0 m ≈ | -385.0 m ≈ | 130.0 m ≈ | -128.0 m ≈ | 168.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | 93.0 m | -220.0 m | -97.0 m | -683.0 m | -620.0 m | -368.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -557.0 m | -273.0 m | 6.0 m | -27.0 m | -8.0 m | -250.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 8.0 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Feb 2021verified |
| Share repurchases | — | 40.0 m | 40.0 m | 40.0 m | 40.0 m | 40.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 16 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 843.6 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet8
- Growth0
- Quality19
- Returns34
- Valuation24
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.00 – 53.79 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)1.41 – 53.79 (Mid 15.20)WACC 5.7% · starting FCFF 237.4 m USD · terminal value share of EV 86%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -11.8%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA0.00 – 10.63 (Mid 0.54)6 companies used · median multiple 10.5x · quartiles 9.2x – 14.0xAMRZ, APOG, CRH, JHX, OC, TGLS
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.66 – 0.88 (Mid 0.75)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 16/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -0.6% | 22 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Net margin · Quality | -18.9% | 14 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -2.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 10.3x | 0 (vs peers) | 15% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 40 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.2x | 43 (vs peers) | 15% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -5.2% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.4% | 34 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet8/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial34/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation24/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
O-I GLASS, INC. (OI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.4 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.6%; net margin -18.9%; ROE -119.2%; net debt/EBITDA 10.3x.
The estimated value range is 0.66–10.63 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.75 USD, the price of 5.48 USD leaves a potential of -86.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -627.1% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 16/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -0.6%
- Net margin: -18.9%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -2.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 10.3x
- Interest coverage: -0.1x
- FCF yield: -5.2%
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, P/E (TTM), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Stone, clay, glass and concrete (SIC 32xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CXCemex Sab De Cv | 158.6 bn | 513.1 | 7.8% | 5.8% | −2.1% | +1% / +58% |
| CRHCRH public limited company | 65.7 bn | 18.6 | 14.8% | 9.2% | +5.3% | −18% / +57% |
| AMRZAmrize Ltd | 23.5 bn | 19.5 | 9.8% | 10.2% | +0.9% | −14% / unavailable |
| JHXJAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES plc | 17.1 bn | 117.6 | 3.3% | 2.7% | +24.7% | +49% / −8% |
| OCOwens Corning | 9.9 bn | — | -11.3% | -4.4% | +2.6% | +13% / −6% |
| EXPEagle Materials Inc. | 6.0 bn | 16.4 | 24.5% | 16.1% | +2.1% | −11% / +9% |
| TGLSTecnoglass Holdings Inc. | 1.9 bn | 15.1 | 17.0% | 12.4% | +10.5% | −14% / +23% |
| APOGApogee Enterprises, Inc. | 1.0 bn | 15.2 | 13.1% | 4.7% | +3.2% | +32% / +6% |
| OIO-I Glass, Inc. | 843.6 m | — | -119.2% | -18.9% | −1.6% | −54% / −63% |
| RETOReTo Eco-Solutions, Inc. | 172.7 m | — | -48.3% | -366.1% | +84.3% | −98% / −100% |
| SMIDSmith-Midland Corporation | 130.9 m | 21.4 | 14.5% | 8.6% | +19.0% | −29% / −19% |
| CPSHCps Technologies Corp. | 74.6 m | — | -0.1% | -0.1% | +54.3% | +12% / +65% |
| CSTECaesarstone Ltd. | 56.7 m | — | -66.9% | -34.6% | −10.4% | +9% / −60% |
| CPACHolcim Ltd | — | — | 16.6% | 10.1% | +1.4% | +90% / +170% |
| LOMALoma Negra Compania Industrialargentina Sociedad Anonima | — | — | 21.5% | 22.0% | −23.9% | −29% / +37% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for OI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
O-I Glass is one of the largest glass container makers in the world, with plants across the Americas and Europe. In 2026 the company cut its guidance for that year, citing weakness in Europe and high energy costs, so the Fit to Win efficiency program matters more for results. Net sales of 6,426 million USD in 2025 show the scale of the business.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading position in many national glass markets and a global plant network that gives scale and negotiating weight 1.
- The Americas segment showed strong profit and margin growth in the second quarter of 2026, suggesting the efficiency program is working there 3.
- Experience with recycled glass and lightweighting technology could support its position as environmental requirements tighten 1.
Weaknesses
- The European segment fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026, and impairment and deferred tax charges show how vulnerable that market is 3.
- Guidance for 2026 was cut and 2027 targets were pushed back, pointing to execution difficulties and weaker visibility 3.
- Reliance on one large customer for a meaningful share of sales makes results sensitive to that customer's decisions 1.
Opportunities
- If Fit to Win delivers its planned benefits, the company could rebuild margins and invest in growth, including through acquisitions or partnerships 13.
- Demand for premium spirits, food and non-alcoholic beverages could open room for a more favorable product mix 1.
- Rising demand for recyclable and reusable packaging could favor glass if recycling and return systems develop 1.
Threats
- High and volatile energy costs, especially in Europe, could cut margins if they cannot be fully passed on to customers 13.
- Competition from metal and plastic packaging and from imports could limit the room to raise prices 1.
- Changes in trade policy, tariffs and immigration rules could weigh on demand, particularly in the beer category 12.
Risks
- Execution of Fit to Winhigh
If cost reduction goals are missed or delayed, financial results could suffer and further restructuring costs could arise 13.
- Impairments and losses in Europehigh
The goodwill write-down and tax asset adjustments for Europe show that further impairments could follow if the situation does not improve 3.
- Energy costsmedium
Natural gas and electricity costs could rise sharply, especially in Europe, and suppliers might not deliver at agreed prices and volumes 1.
- Dependence on large customersmedium
Consolidation among big customers can raise pricing pressure and concentrate revenue in a few buyers, making results more sensitive to their decisions 1.
- Recycling and emissions ruleslow
EPR laws, return systems and the EU emissions trading scheme could bring new fees, quotas or costs and affect the supply of recycled glass 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If Fit to Win benefits keep coming through and the Americas holds its margins, the company could cut costs and recover part of its profitability 23.
- A leading position in several national markets and a network of plants across many countries give the company scale if demand stabilizes 1.
- If energy costs ease and price pressure in Europe fades, margins in the European segment could gradually recover 3.
What would break the thesis
- If Europe does not recover, the company could record further impairments and continued weak performance, straining its balance sheet 3.
- Shipment volumes have fallen in recent years, and weak demand or shifts in consumption could keep sales growth limited 12.
- The cut to 2026 guidance and the pushed-back 2027 targets suggest the recovery could take longer than first expected 3.
What to watch
- Europe profitability and energy cost trendsQ3 2026
- Delivery against the 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance2026
- Fit to Win benefits and stabilization of operationsnext 10-K
- Americas shipment volumes and beer category demandQ1 2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 29 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (28 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
O-I Glass, Inc., a Delaware company, makes glass packaging for alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, food and pharmaceuticals through its subsidiaries. The company has plants in 18 countries and is a leading glass container maker in most of the countries where it operates 1. Its largest customers are major food and beverage producers, and contracts are typically annual or multi-year with price adjustments tied to costs 1.
Since 2024 the company has run its Fit to Win program, which targets redundant capacity, network optimization and lower SG&A costs. The program is expected to last at least through 2026 and has involved plant closures and job eliminations 1. In the second half of 2025 the company halted its MAGMA furnace development and focused on its ULTRA lightweighting technology 1.
The company is also a large user of recycled glass, which makes it sensitive to recycling laws, deposit-return systems and extended producer responsibility fees spreading across several jurisdictions 1. Energy costs make up between 10% and 20% of manufacturing costs, so the price of natural gas and electricity is an important factor 1.
Segments
Americas
The Americas segment, with 30 plants, had 2025 net sales of 3,641 million USD and segment operating profit of 549 million USD, up from the prior year mainly on lower operating costs 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment profit rose 22 percent and margins reached 17.4 percent, helped by Fit to Win benefits 23.
Europe
The Europe segment, with 33 plants, had 2025 net sales of 2,689 million USD and segment operating profit of 297 million USD, down from 356 million USD in 2024 because of lower prices 1. In the second quarter of 2026 segment profit fell to 6 million USD, reflecting competitive price pressure, energy costs and disruption after restructuring 3.
Market context
The rigid glass container market faces competition from metal cans, plastic containers and flexible packaging, and the company relies on quality, price, service and innovation to keep customers 1. Sales are seasonal: shipments in North America and Europe are usually higher in the second and third quarters, and in Latin America in the third and fourth 1. The company says demand has also been hit by shifts in consumer preferences and customer destocking 1.
Glass shipments, measured in tons, fell about 3 percent in 2025 and about 5 percent in the second quarter of 2026, a sign that demand is still soft even though trends improved through the quarter 12. The company notes that food and non-alcoholic beverages have performed better than beer, wine and spirits 2.
Trends
- Fit to Win cost programtailwind
The cost reduction and network optimization program has delivered visible operating benefits in the Americas, and the company says its target of at least 650 million USD of net benefits over three years still stands 3. If execution stabilizes, the savings could support margins in the second half of 2026 3.
- Energy costs in Europeheadwind
High and volatile natural gas prices hit Europe hardest, where medium and long-term contracts partly limit exposure, but new contracts signed when prices are high could create cost inflation 13.
- Recycling and packaging rulesmixed
Extended producer responsibility, deposit-return systems and recycled-content rules could change the price and availability of recycled glass and favor or penalize certain packaging types 1.
- Competitive pressure and customer consolidationheadwind
Competition from other glass makers and alternative packaging, together with consolidation among large customers, has led to pricing pressure that could continue, especially in Europe 13.
Competitive position
In the United States the main glass rivals are Ardagh Group and Anchor Glass Container, alongside imports and in-house producers at large consumer goods companies 1. In Europe the rivals include Verallia, Vetropack, Vidrala and BA Vidro, while in metal and plastic containers the main rivals include Ball, Crown, Silgan and Amcor 1.
The company says it keeps its leading position through innovation, branding, global reach and manufacturing know-how, and the cost advantage from Fit to Win should help it compete with alternative packaging 1. Still, sector consolidation could strengthen some rivals and deepen pricing pressure 1.
- Verallia
Direct rival in Europe and Brazil, named as a glass competitor in the company's sources 1.
- Ardagh Group
Competitor in glass in the US and Europe, and in metal containers 1.
- Anchor Glass Container
Main US glass container rival named in the company's filing 1.
- Vidrala
Competitor in Europe and in Brazil through Vidroporto 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report28 Oct 2026
- Current report27 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report28 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jul 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Current report09 Jun 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report18 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report13 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Current report04 May 2026Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / O-I Glass, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / O-I Glass, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / O-I Glass, Inc. · 28 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.