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olivLaw · US equity research

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. ORLY

Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores · SIC 5531 · Vertical: Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531)

92.34USD+2.61% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of auto parts in North America, serving both DIY and professional service customers. With demand supported by an aging vehicle fleet and a growing store network, the company raised its 2026 guidance, which makes its trajectory worth following in the coming quarters. Sales in fiscal 2025 reached 17.78 bn USD, and 2026 guidance points to total revenue of 18.9 - 19.2 bn USD.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) stock was 92.34 USD (+2.61% on the day), with market capitalisation 74.7 bn USD, P/E 29.4 on diluted EPS of 3.14 USD over the last 12 months, beta 0.19, 52-week range 82.73–101.70 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.9 bn USD (+8.1% YoY), net income of 715.1 m USD (+7.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.86 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
74.7 bn USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.4
Diluted EPS TTM 3.14 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.40%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.19
Volatility (1y) 26%
52-week range
82.73101.70

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
61.5
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
85.28 – 92.76
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.94 · band width 8.4%
SMA 50 / 200
87.25 / 90.48
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.04 / 0.88
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+10.1%−1.1%+11.2 pp—
3 months−1.2%−0.5%−0.7 pp—
6 months−2.6%+4.4%−7.0 pp—
Year to date+1.2%+12.3%−11.1 pp—
1 year−1.6%+13.5%−15.1 pp−2.2%
3 years+45.4%+76.4%−31.0 pp−0.1%
5 years+117.1%+63.7%+53.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−18.7%
28 Nov 2025 → 15 Jul 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−23.3%
11 Sept 2025 → 15 Jul 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+16.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
4.9 bn USD
+8.1% YoY
Net income
715.1 m USD
+7.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.86
+10.3% YoY
net / operating
14.6% / 20.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue4.4 bn4.1 bn4.1 bn4.5 bn4.7 bn4.4 bn4.6 bn4.9 bn
Cost of revenue2.1 bn2.0 bn2.0 bn2.2 bn2.3 bn2.1 bn2.2 bn2.4 bn
Gross profit2.3 bn2.1 bn2.1 bn2.3 bn2.4 bn2.3 bn2.3 bn2.5 bn
SG&A1.4 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.4 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn
Operating income896.7 m738.7 m741.5 m914.5 m976.1 m828.6 m841.6 m985.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation116.4 m ≈122.6 m122.2 m124.9 m ≈128.7 m ≈135.4 m135.4 m138.3 m ≈
Interest expense55.2 m55.4 m57.6 m57.3 m59.6 m60.6 m62.7 m69.9 m
Pre-tax income847.9 m685.2 m684.4 m861.5 m923.7 m770.7 m780.1 m924.1 m
Income tax182.5 m134.1 m145.9 m192.9 m197.8 m165.5 m175.9 m209.0 m
Net income665.5 m551.1 m538.5 m668.6 m725.9 m605.2 m604.2 m715.1 m
Diluted EPS0.760.63 ≈0.620.780.850.71 ≈0.720.86
Operating cash flow772.0 m ≈624.5 m755.1 m756.8 m ≈616.5 m ≈633.5 m1.0 bn1.0 bn ≈
Capex258.3 m ≈290.5 m287.0 m300.7 m ≈312.1 m ≈269.0 m244.4 m307.6 m ≈
Share repurchases540.7 m ≈472.0 m559.4 m617.2 m ≈420.0 m ≈500.3 m922.9 m1.5 bn ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 88 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 1.1, median 1.6, max 37.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue9.5 bn10.1 bn11.6 bn13.3 bn14.4 bn15.8 bn16.7 bn17.8 bn
Revenue YoY+6.2%+6.4%+14.3%+14.8%+8.1%+9.7%+5.7%+6.4%
Net income1.3 bn1.4 bn1.8 bn2.2 bn2.2 bn2.3 bn2.4 bn2.5 bn
Net income YoY+16.8%+5.0%+26.0%+23.5%+0.4%+8.0%+1.7%+6.3%
Diluted EPS16.1017.8823.5331.1033.442.562.712.97
Diluted EPS YoY+27.1%+11.1%+31.6%+32.2%+7.5%−92.3%+5.9%+9.6%
net %13.9%13.7%15.1%16.2%15.1%14.8%14.3%14.3%
Free cash flow1.2 bn1.1 bn2.4 bn2.8 bn2.6 bn2.0 bn2.0 bn1.6 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
193.8 m USD
Financial debt
6.0 bn USD
Net debt
5.8 bn USD
Equity
-763.4 m USD
Total assets
16.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.77x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
16.2%
FCF margin
9.0%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
15.8 bn
2024
16.7 bn
2025
17.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
7.7 bn
2024
8.2 bn
2025
8.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
8.1 bn
2024
8.6 bn
2025
9.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
4.9 bn
2024
5.3 bn
2025
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
3.2 bn
2024
3.3 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
409.1 m
2024
461.9 m
2025
511.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
3.6 bn ≈
2024
3.7 bn ≈
2025
4.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
201.7 m
2024
222.5 m
2025
235.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
658.2 m
2024
658.4 m
2025
702.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.56
2024
2.71
2025
2.97

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
915.0 m
2024
880.6 m
2025
855.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
279.1 m
2024
130.2 m
2025
193.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
375.0 m
2024
356.8 m
2025
389.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
4.7 bn
2024
5.1 bn
2025
5.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
5.6 bn
2024
5.8 bn
2025
6.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
5.0 bn
2024
5.6 bn
2025
6.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
897.7 m
2024
930.2 m
2025
948.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
49.8 m
2024
67.9 m
2025
71.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
13.9 bn
2024
14.9 bn
2025
16.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
6.1 bn
2024
6.5 bn
2025
7.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2021verified

Long-term debt
2023
5.6 bn
2024
5.5 bn
2025
6.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
7.7 bn
2024
8.3 bn
2025
8.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-1.7 bn †
2024
-1.4 bn †
2025
-763.4 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
3.0 bn
2024
3.0 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.0 bn
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.0 bn ≈
2024
2.0 bn ≈
2025
1.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-995.9 m
2024
-1.2 bn
2025
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.9 bn
2024
-2.0 bn
2025
-1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
3.2 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
7.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
6.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
5.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
7.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
9.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-55.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-33.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
-21.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
51.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
22.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
19.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
14.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
11.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
46.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
6.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
14.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
1.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
2.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
81.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
78.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
9 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
231 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
289 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
-50 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
74.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
81.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
28.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
4.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
22.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
4.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
34.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 43 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])

Closing price

92.34 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 74.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
74.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
29.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
14.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
6.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 2769derived 192

Score by group

  • Valuation11
  • Balance sheet64
  • Quality87
  • Growth30
  • Returns64

Estimated value range

Low
39.92
USD per share
Mid
54.00
USD per share
High
64.36
USD per share
Price: 92.34 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -41.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -71.0% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.31 – 70.41 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)34.31 – 58.31 (Mid 43.52)
    WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 2.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA45.52 – 70.41 (Mid 64.48)
    3 companies used · median multiple 14.1x · quartiles 10.5x – 15.3x
    AAP, AZO, HZO
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 43/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality14.3%100 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality81.4%73 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth7.3%61 (on a fixed band)10%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-55.4%0 (on a fixed band)10%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.6x68 (on a fixed band)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet14.4x100 (on a fixed band)7%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.8x0 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation29.4x3 (on a fixed band)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation19.5x0 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation2.9%36 (on a fixed band)10%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns4.5%64 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet64/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth30/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality87/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial64/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC (ORLY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 6.4%; net margin 14.3%; net debt/EBITDA 1.6x.

The estimated value range is 39.92–64.36 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 54.00 USD, the price of 92.34 USD leaves a potential of -41.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -71.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 43/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 14.3%
  • FCF conversion: 81.4%
  • Interest coverage: 14.4x

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -55.4%
  • Current ratio: 0.8x
  • P/E (TTM): 29.4x
  • EV/EBITDA: 19.5x
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Retail-Auto & Home Supply Stores (SIC 5531) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
29.4x
vertical median 36.1x
below median (−18.5%)
EV/EBITDA
19.5x
vertical median 14.1x
above median (+38.3%)
P/S
4.0x
vertical median 0.4x
above median (+1,031.3%)
P/B
—
vertical median 1.2x
ROE
—
vertical median -17.5%
Net margin
14.3%
vertical median 0.2%
above median (+7,762.0%)
EBIT margin
19.6%
vertical median 2.7%
above median (+614.5%)
Revenue YoY
6.4%
vertical median 5.6%
above median (+14.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.6x
vertical median 2.0x
below median (−18.4%)
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
ORLYO Reilly Automotive Inc74.7 bn29.4—14.3%+6.4%−2% / +45%
AZOAutoZone, Inc.53.5 bn21.8—12.6%+7.4%−16% / +27%
AAPAdvance Auto Parts, Inc.3.1 bn36.13.8%1.0%unavailable−2% / −0%
HZOMarinemax Inc1.2 bn375.50.4%0.2%−5.0%+125% / +77%
PRTSCarparts.com, Inc.62.2 m—-35.4%-4.0%unavailable+42% / −75%
ONEWOneWater Marine Inc.10.6 k—-35.9%-6.7%+5.6%−13% / −60%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ORLY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
58.47
Total return -37% · Per year -37%
103.23
Total return 12% · Per year 12%
155.31
Total return 68% · Per year 68%
3 years
59.94
Total return -35% · Per year -13%
118.77
Total return 29% · Per year 9%
195.73
Total return 112% · Per year 28%
5 years
61.44
Total return -33% · Per year -8%
136.64
Total return 48% · Per year 8%
246.67
Total return 167% · Per year 22%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 29.69
  • Net margin± 20.78
  • Annual revenue growth± 16.62
  • Annual dilution± 1.75

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

O'Reilly Automotive is one of the largest specialty retailers of auto parts in North America, serving both DIY and professional service customers. With demand supported by an aging vehicle fleet and a growing store network, the company raised its 2026 guidance, which makes its trajectory worth following in the coming quarters 13. Sales in fiscal 2025 reached 17.78 bn USD 1, and 2026 guidance points to total revenue of 18.9 - 19.2 bn USD 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A well-established dual market model with a balanced base of DIY and professional customers 1.
  • A regional distribution network and hub stores that provide fast access to parts 1.
  • A long history of growing sales and profit, documented in its annual reports 1.

Weaknesses

  • Total debt has risen significantly in recent years, making the company more sensitive to financing conditions 1.
  • Reliance on key suppliers and complex supply chains can expose the company to disruptions 1.
  • Inventory turnover is relatively slow, which increases the need for working capital 1.

Opportunities

  • Consolidation of a fragmented industry through new stores and acquisitions 1.
  • Growth in the professional segment and in online orders, where the company already has dedicated platforms 1.
  • Expansion into less densely populated markets where national competition is thinner 1.

Threats

  • Competitive pressure from online retail and large chains, which can affect prices 1.
  • Tariffs and changes in trade policy can raise acquisition costs 12.
  • A slowing economy or falling disposable income could reduce consumer demand 1.

Risks

  • Economic conditionsmedium

    If consumer incomes fall or credit becomes more expensive, demand for parts could slow 1.

  • Competition and pricingmedium

    Online platforms may intensify pricing pressure and compress margins 1.

  • Supply chains and tariffshigh

    Supplier disruptions or new tariffs could affect the availability and cost of merchandise 12.

  • Indebtednessmedium

    A high debt level could limit financial flexibility if credit ratings deteriorate 2.

  • Weather and system disruptionslow

    Natural disasters or failures of information systems could temporarily close stores or distribution centres 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If comparable sales growth holds within the guided range, the company could exceed its 2026 revenue and profit targets 3.
  • An ageing vehicle fleet and a growing number of vehicles on the road support long-term demand 12.
  • The share repurchase programme and operating cash flow give the company financial flexibility 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If inflation and fuel costs rise faster than wages, consumer spending on maintenance could fall 12.
  • Online competition and pricing pressure could compress margins over the medium term 1.
  • Accumulated debt could become a burden if access to financing worsens 12.

What to watch

  • Comparable store sales versus the revised guidanceQ3 2026
  • Net new store openings against the plan of 225 - 2352026
  • Operating cash flow and the pace of share repurchasesQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 07 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

The company aims to win market share through superior service, technically trained staff, high parts availability and a distribution network giving same-day or next-day access to many hard-to-find items 1. Its growth strategy includes opening new stores, growing sales in existing stores, consolidating a fragmented sector and developing digital channels 1. The 2026 plan calls for 225 - 235 net new stores 13.

Segments

DIY customers

Do-it-yourself customers accounted for roughly half of sales in 2025 1. For them O'Reilly offers technical advice, battery testing and services such as check engine code extraction through its VeriScan technology, plus online orders with in-store pickup or home delivery 1.

Digital and omnichannel

Online platforms, mobile apps and in-store pickup complement sales in stores, and customers often use several channels before buying 1. The company aims for a consistent experience across channels 1.

Market context

Demand in the aftermarket depends on miles driven, the number of registered vehicles and the average age of the fleet. US vehicles are driven about three trillion miles a year 1, and the number of light vehicles on the road reached 289 mn by the end of 2025 2. The average age of the US vehicle population rose to 12.8 years in 2025 2, which supports demand for maintenance and repair.

The industry remains fragmented, which leaves room for consolidation by national retailers 1. The estimated 2026 SAAR is 16.5 mn vehicles 2, a level that, if sustained, could support new vehicle registrations and long-term demand.

Trends

  • Ageing vehicle fleettailwind

    Older vehicles have more frequent failures and maintenance cycles, which supports demand for parts and services 12.

  • Growth in miles driventailwind

    Total miles driven directly influence wear and repair needs, though growth has been moderate in recent years 12.

  • Inflation and fuel costsheadwind

    Inflationary pressure and rapid fuel price increases can reduce consumers' disposable income, and tariffs can raise acquisition costs 12. The company says it has typically been able to pass such cost increases on through higher prices.

  • Technology changes in vehiclesmixed

    Electric and hybrid vehicles may need fewer repairs, and restrictions on access to diagnostic data imposed by manufacturers may push work toward dealers 1. The impact depends on the pace of adoption.

Competitive position

Both the DIY and professional segments are highly competitive, particularly in densely populated areas, where competitors can be larger or better funded 1. Online platforms let customers quickly compare prices and availability, which can create pricing pressure 1.

The company differentiates itself through its store network, regional tiered distribution and technically trained staff, which are hard to replicate quickly 1. Competitors with lower cost structures, especially online ones, can still exert pressure on prices 1.

  • National auto retail chains

    National chains operating in the same urban areas and competing directly in both the DIY and professional segments 1.

  • Smaller auto parts retailers with strong local presence

    Smaller operators can have a more intense presence in specific local markets 1.

  • Online auto parts sellers

    Digital sellers may have leaner cost structures and compete on price and assortment 1.

  • Authorised manufacturer dealers

    Dealers can take over maintenance and repair work if access to technical data remains restricted 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. · 29 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.