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olivLaw · US equity research

Oxford Industries, Inc. OXM

Men's & Boys' Furnishgs, Work Clothg, & Allied Garments · SIC 2320 · Vertical: Men's & Boys' Furnishgs, Work Clothg, & Allied Garments (SIC 2320)

30.48USD+8.05% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Oxford Industries is an apparel company whose lifestyle brands include Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was, sold mainly directly to consumers through its own stores and e-commerce. In September 2026 the company cut its fiscal 2026 guidance, citing weaker demand at Lilly Pulitzer and consumer pressure, with net sales now expected between 1.430 and 1.470 billion USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM) stock was 30.48 USD (+8.05% on the day), with market capitalisation 456.5 m USD, dividend yield 9.12%, beta 1.27, 52-week range 24.44–47.33 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2027): revenue of 394.4 m USD (−2.2% YoY), net income of 49.0 m USD (+193.4% YoY), diluted EPS 3.25 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
456.5 m USD
shares as of 01 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.51 · TTM to 01 Aug 2026
E/P (TTM)
-1.66%
TTM to 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
9.12%
DPS 12m 2.78
Beta (2y)
1.27
Volatility (1y) 62%
52-week range
24.4447.33

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
63.3
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
24.57 – 29.85
above the upper band · %B 1.12 · band width 19.4%
SMA 50 / 200
28.97 / 36.66
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.24 / -0.25
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+20.1%−2.0%+22.1 pp—
3 months−21.5%−2.2%−19.4 pp—
6 months−33.1%+4.3%−37.4 pp—
Year to date−10.9%+10.6%−21.4 pp—
1 year−16.5%+10.5%−26.9 pp+14.8%
3 years−65.6%+73.7%−139.3 pp+49.1%
5 years−69.5%+61.7%−131.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−48.4%
22 Apr 2026 → 30 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−79.9%
02 Feb 2023 → 30 Sept 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−21.1%
S&P 500 +10.1%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2027 · 01 Aug 2026

Revenue
394.4 m USD
−2.2% YoY
Net income
49.0 m USD
+193.4% YoY
Diluted EPS
3.25
+190.2% YoY
net / operating
12.4% / 17.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26Q4 '26Q1 '27Q2 '27
Revenue308.0 m390.5 m392.9 m403.1 m307.3 m374.5 m391.4 m394.4 m
Cost of revenue113.5 m153.8 m140.6 m155.5 m122.1 m161.9 m147.5 m103.2 m
Gross profit194.5 m236.7 m252.3 m247.6 m185.3 m212.6 m243.9 m291.1 m
SG&A204.7 m152.3 m205.7 m209.0 m212.6 m157.1 m210.9 m212.3 m
Operating income-6.2 m20.3 m36.2 m25.4 m-85.1 m-7.8 m22.4 m68.8 m
Depreciation & amortisation17.2 m17.6 m17.0 m16.6 m——16.4 m17.2 m
Pre-tax income-6.9 m19.4 m34.5 m23.9 m-86.7 m-9.8 m20.1 m67.3 m
Income tax-2.9 m1.5 m8.3 m7.2 m-23.1 m-2.7 m5.1 m18.4 m
Net income-3.9 m17.9 m26.2 m16.7 m-63.7 m-7.1 m15.0 m49.0 m
Diluted EPS-0.251.13 ≈1.701.12-4.28-0.48 ≈1.003.25
Operating cash flow-18.2 m ≈90.5 m-3.9 m83.5 m ≈-9.1 m ≈49.2 m7.9 m89.4 m ≈
Capex38.7 m ≈42.0 m23.4 m31.2 m ≈38.8 m ≈14.9 m22.8 m8.8 m ≈
Dividends paid10.6 m ≈10.7 m10.4 m10.9 m ≈10.4 m ≈10.5 m10.6 m10.9 m ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈050.5 m4.7 m ≈14.0 k ≈000 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20192020202120222023202420252026
Revenue1.1 bn1.1 bn748.8 m1.1 bn1.4 bn1.6 bn1.5 bn1.5 bn
Revenue YoY+2.0%+1.4%−33.3%+52.5%+23.6%+11.3%−3.5%−2.6%
Net income66.3 m68.5 m-95.7 m131.3 m165.7 m60.7 m93.0 m-27.9 m
Net income YoY+1.8%+3.3%−239.7%unavailable+26.2%−63.4%+53.2%−130.0%
Diluted EPS3.944.05-5.777.7810.193.825.87-1.86
Diluted EPS YoY+1.3%+2.8%−242.5%unavailable+31.0%−62.5%+53.7%−131.7%
net %6.0%6.1%-12.8%11.5%11.7%3.9%6.1%-1.9%
Free cash flow59.3 m84.5 m54.9 m166.1 m78.9 m170.2 m59.8 m11.3 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2026 · 31 Jan 2026

Cash
8.1 m USD
Financial debt
116.4 m USD
Net debt
108.3 m USD
Equity
514.8 m USD
Total assets
1.3 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.23x
Current ratio
1.10x
ROE
-4.9%
ROA
-2.1%
FCF margin
0.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.5 bn
2026
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2024
575.9 m
2025
562.0 m
2026
580.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2024
995.6 m
2025
954.6 m
2026
897.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2024
756.6 m
2025
787.0 m
2026
817.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2024
81.0 m
2025
119.0 m
2026
-31.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2024
64.1 m
2025
67.9 m
2026
65.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2024
145.0 m ≈
2025
186.9 m ≈
2026
34.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026derived

Pre-tax income
2024
74.9 m
2025
116.6 m
2026
-38.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2024
14.2 m
2025
23.6 m
2026
-10.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2024
60.7 m
2025
93.0 m
2026
-27.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2024
3.82
2025
5.87
2026
-1.86

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2024
15.9 m
2025
15.8 m
2026
15.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Dividend per share
2024
2.60
2025
2.68
2026
2.76

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2024
7.6 m
2025
9.5 m
2026
8.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2024
63.4 m
2025
77.8 m
2026
73.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2024
159.6 m
2025
167.3 m
2026
165.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2024
293.1 m
2025
292.8 m
2026
292.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2024
195.1 m
2025
272.7 m
2026
325.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2024
27.2 m
2025
27.4 m
2026
25.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2024
262.1 m
2025
257.9 m
2026
189.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn
2026
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2024
85.5 m
2025
104.8 m
2026
104.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2024
29.3 m
2025
31.1 m
2026
116.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2024
240.6 m
2025
248.3 m
2026
265.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2024
560.9 m †
2025
622.6 m †
2026
514.8 m †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2024
244.3 m
2025
194.0 m
2026
119.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2024
74.1 m
2025
134.2 m
2026
108.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2024
170.2 m ≈
2025
59.8 m ≈
2026
11.3 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2024
-84.0 m
2025
-143.3 m
2026
-108.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2024
-161.2 m
2025
-48.6 m
2026
-12.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2024
41.7 m
2025
43.2 m
2026
42.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2024
20.0 m
2025
0
2026
55.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Revenue CAGR 3Y
1.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2023 → FY 2026
Revenue CAGR 5Y
14.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2021 → FY 2026
EBIT growth (YoY)
-126.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income growth (YoY)
-130.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
-131.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
-81.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2026

Profitability

Gross margin
63.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBITDA margin
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
EBIT margin
-0.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
-0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF margin
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Returns

ROE
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROA
-0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROIC
-0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROCE
-0.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (FCF)
81.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
64.2 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Quick ratio
0.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
137.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Capital expenditure
85.3 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Free cash flow
52.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
214.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
16 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days inventory outstanding
107 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Days payables outstanding
61 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Cash conversion cycle
62 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
456.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Enterprise value
520.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-1.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/S
0.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
0.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/FCF
8.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
FCF yield
11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Dividend yield
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
9.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 45 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

30.48 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 456.5 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
456.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
ROE
-1.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026 · balance sheet at 01 Aug 2026
Net margin
-0.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2026
Dividend yield
9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 01 Aug 2026

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2026
Latest reported period: 01 Aug 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 01 Aug 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 01 Sept 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 04 Sept 2026
verified 2547derived 187

Score by group

  • Valuation79
  • Balance sheet37
  • Quality8
  • Growth13
  • Returns82

Estimated value range

Low
35.63
USD per share
Mid
42.79
USD per share
High
58.65
USD per share
Price: 30.48 USD
The price is below the range
Potential to the central value: 40.4% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 28.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: high · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 34.98 – 68.52 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA34.98 – 68.52 (Mid 43.97)
    4 companies used · median multiple 11.3x · quartiles 9.2x – 17.0x
    CTAS, KTB, PVH, VFC
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)36.27 – 48.78 (Mid 41.60)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Men's & Boys' Furnishgs, Work Clothg, & Allied Garments (SIC 2320)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 45/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-0.2%0 (vs peers)15%
Net margin · Quality-0.5%20 (vs peers)9%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth1.5%13 (on a fixed band)12%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.0x40 (vs peers)15%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x31 (on a fixed band)6%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuation8.1x63 (on a fixed band)15%
FCF yield · Valuation11.4%100 (on a fixed band)12%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns9.3%100 (on a fixed band)9%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns81.4%55 (on a fixed band)6%

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet37/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial13/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality8/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns82/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation79/100 · 2/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC (OXM). Latest full fiscal year: 2026; data up to 2026-08-01.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.5 bn USD in 2026; YoY growth -2.6%; net margin -0.5%; ROE -1.2%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.

The estimated value range is 35.63–58.65 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 42.79 USD, the price of 30.48 USD leaves a potential of 40.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 28.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 45/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • FCF yield: 11.4%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.3%
  • The price is below the estimated value range

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -0.2%
  • Net margin: -0.5%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 1.5%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM).

Versus the vertical median

Men's & Boys' Furnishgs, Work Clothg, & Allied Garments (SIC 2320) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 24.1x
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
vertical median 11.3x
below median (−28.0%)
P/S
0.3x
vertical median 1.2x
below median (−73.4%)
P/B
0.8x
vertical median 5.6x
below median (−85.7%)
ROE
-1.2%
vertical median 37.5%
below median (−103.1%)
Net margin
-0.5%
vertical median 8.7%
below median (−105.3%)
EBIT margin
-0.1%
vertical median 11.9%
below median (−101.0%)
Revenue YoY
-2.6%
vertical median 6.2%
below median (−141.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.0x
vertical median 0.7x
above median (+47.2%)
Dividend yield
9.1%
vertical median 0.9%
above median (+905.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
CTASCintas Corporation88.8 bn44.141.4%17.8%+8.9%+20% / +62%
VFCV. F. Corporation8.2 bn22.321.1%3.9%+1.1%+20% / +25%
PVHPvh Corp.4.5 bn—-3.5%-1.9%+3.4%+15% / −0%
KTBKontoor Brands, Inc.4.5 bn17.148.0%8.7%unavailable+10% / +49%
OXMOxford Industries Inc456.5 m—-1.2%-0.5%−2.6%−16% / −66%
RLRalph Lauren Corporation—26.037.5%11.8%+14.6%+12% / +218%

1- and 3-year price returns: for OXM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Oxford Industries is an apparel company whose lifestyle brands include Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was, sold mainly directly to consumers through its own stores and e-commerce. In September 2026 the company cut its fiscal 2026 guidance, citing weaker demand at Lilly Pulitzer and consumer pressure, with net sales now expected between 1.430 and 1.470 billion USD 13.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • A portfolio of lifestyle brands with strong emotional connections to customers, especially Tommy Bahama, which remains stable 13.
    • A predominantly direct to consumer model with high gross margins and direct relationships with customers from its own database 1.
    • Solid operating cash flow in the first half of fiscal 2026, used to reduce debt 3.

    Weaknesses

    • The decline at Lilly Pulitzer and Johnny Was points to product, marketing and asset impairment issues 31.
    • Fiscal 2026 guidance was lowered, and expected adjusted earnings are well below the prior year 3.

    Opportunities

    • A recovery at Lilly Pulitzer through promotions and product improvements could ease pressure on the segment 3.
    • If the enterprise-wide efficiency review succeeds, it could improve earnings power without depending on top-line growth 3.
    • Tariff recoveries and lower capex could support debt management and capital returns 21.

    Threats

    • Consumer pressure, inflation and high interest rates could reduce discretionary demand for apparel 1.
    • Uncertainty around Section 301 tariffs and possible retaliatory measures could affect sourcing costs 2.
    • Decline in the wholesale channel due to department store consolidations and closures could limit distribution 1.

    Risks

    • Consumer demandhigh

      Discretionary spending is sensitive to inflation and interest rates, and the company lowered its 2026 guidance because of macro pressure 13.

    • Dependence on Tommy Bahamahigh

      The main brand accounts for most sales, so problems there would have a large effect on results 1.

    • Tariffs and international trademedium

      Changes in tariff policy, including Section 301 tariffs, could raise costs and affect margins 2.

    • Impairments of goodwill and intangiblesmedium

      The company recorded impairments of goodwill and intangible assets in fiscal 2025, and more could follow if the performance of some brands does not improve 1.

    • Supply chain and external eventslow

      Geopolitical conflicts and weather events could disrupt transport, sourcing and store traffic 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If Tommy Bahama keeps growing modestly and Lilly Pulitzer recovers demand through promotions and product work, results could gradually improve 3.
    • Tariff refunds and debt reduction could provide financial flexibility for investment or capital returns 23.
    • The high-margin direct to consumer model could support profitability if management manages to reduce SG&A costs 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • The lowered guidance and the decline at Lilly Pulitzer suggest demand and product problems could persist longer than expected 3.
    • The effect of tariff refunds on second quarter margins is not recurring, so GAAP earnings could fall without these items 3.
    • Dependence on one main brand and pressure in the wholesale channel could limit long-term growth 1.

    What to watch

    • Q3 results and delivery against revised sales and adjusted EPS guidanceQ3 2026
    • Performance of Lilly Pulitzer after the increase in promotional activityQ3 2026
    • Progress of the IEEPA tariff refund process and the impact of Section 301 tariffs2026
    • Results of the enterprise-wide efficiency review and SG&A levels2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Oxford Industries designs, sources, markets and distributes products bearing the trademarks of its lifestyle brands: Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer, Johnny Was, Southern Tide, TBBC, Duck Head and Jack Rogers 1. In fiscal 2025, 82% of consolidated net sales came through direct to consumer channels, namely its own stores, e-commerce, outlets and Tommy Bahama food and beverage operations, with the remaining 18% from wholesale channels 1. The company operated 315 full-price retail stores at the end of fiscal 2025 1.

    For fiscal 2026 the company said capital expenditures would fall significantly as the distribution center build ended, and that it would closely evaluate SG&A spending to find savings 13. Management also mentioned evaluating acquisitions of additional lifestyle brands and returning capital to shareholders when circumstances warrant 1.

    Segments

    Tommy Bahama

    Tommy Bahama represented 56% of net sales in fiscal 2025 and sells men's and women's sportswear, with a typical consumer older than 45 and with high household income 1. The brand sells mainly direct to consumers, and in Q2 fiscal 2026 its net sales were nearly flat, up 0.8% year over year 13.

    Lilly Pulitzer

    Lilly Pulitzer's net sales fell 5.6% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, which the company attributed to addressable product and marketing challenges in its fashion merchandising business 3. The company said it would increase promotional activity at this brand to stimulate demand 3.

    Market context

    The apparel market is competitive and cyclical, depending on discretionary consumer spending, which tends to decline more sharply than the general economy during downturns 1. Tariffs, inflation and high interest rates have pressured demand, and retailers have increased promotions, intensifying price competition 21.

    Digital platforms and artificial intelligence have raised consumer expectations for personalization and fast delivery, while wholesale channels face pressure from department store consolidations and store closures 1. The company says it is positioned in brands with strong emotional connections to customers 1.

    Trends

    • Tariffs and trade uncertaintymixed

      Tariffs imposed under IEEPA were invalidated by the Supreme Court, allowing the company to seek refunds, while Section 301 tariffs have replaced temporary measures and their impact remains uncertain 2. The refunds supported gross margin in the second quarter, but that effect is not recurring 3.

    • Consumer pressureheadwind

      Inflation, energy prices and high interest rates have reduced confidence and discretionary spending, and the company lowered its 2026 guidance 23. If the pressure persists, demand for apparel could remain weak.

    • Digital commerce and AImixed

      Digital platforms and AI tools are becoming central to customer acquisition and retention, and companies that invest in technology could gain advantages 1. The required investments, however, raise operating costs in the near term 1.

    • Efficiency and lower capextailwind

      Completion of the Lyons distribution center and fewer planned new store openings could free up cash and reduce debt, with borrowings already down to 73 million USD 13.

    Competitive position

    No single apparel firm dominates the industry, and competitors vary by segment and distribution channel 1. The company says some competitors are significantly larger or more diversified and have greater financial resources 1.

    In e-commerce competition is intense, with new entrants, pricing pressure and high expectations for fast delivery and returns, while fast fashion and off-price retailers have added promotional pressure 1.

    • Large department stores and fashion retailers

      Department stores and fashion retailers are wholesale channels for the company and at the same time competitors for customer attention and spending 1.

    • Fast fashion and value retailers

      Fast fashion and value fashion have increased promotional pressure, reducing prices and margins in the category 1.

    • Off-price retailers

      Off-price channels, selling branded products at discount, are cited by the company as a source of pressure on prices and wholesale sales 13.

    • Multi-brand e-commerce platforms

      Multi-brand online retailers are both distribution channels and competitors for apparel customers 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2026-01-31 · SEC / Oxford Industries, Inc. · 27 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-08-01 · SEC / Oxford Industries, Inc. · 04 Sept 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Oxford Industries, Inc. · 03 Sept 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.