olivLaw · US equity research
QCOM QCOM
Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment · SIC 3663 · Vertical: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663)
Qualcomm (QCOM) reported revenues of 44.3 billion USD in fiscal 2025, up 14%, but net income fell 45% to 5.5 billion USD, reflecting a 5.7 billion USD tax charge. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, revenues declined 4% to 9.9 billion USD, and the company targets faster growth from outside handset sales.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, QCOM (QCOM) stock was 164.43 USD (+1.45% on the day), with market capitalisation 172.7 bn USD, P/E 19.0 on diluted EPS of 8.65 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.18%, beta 1.69, 52-week range 124.07–251.02 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 9.9 bn USD (−4.0% YoY), net income of 2.0 bn USD (−24.9% YoY), diluted EPS 1.87 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 163.19 – 187.05
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.05 · band width 13.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 177.98 / 169.55
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.59 / -1.13
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −11.1% | −2.0% | −9.1 pp | — |
| 3 months | +1.1% | −2.2% | +3.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −11.9% | +4.3% | −16.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −3.9% | +10.6% | −14.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −9.0% | +10.5% | −19.5 pp | +1.0% |
| 3 years | +37.6% | +73.7% | −36.1 pp | +58.8% |
| 5 years | +5.3% | +61.7% | −56.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 28 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.2 bn | 11.7 bn | 11.0 bn | 10.4 bn | 11.3 bn | 12.3 bn | 10.6 bn | 9.9 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 4.5 bn | 5.2 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.7 bn |
| Research & development | 2.3 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.6 bn |
| SG&A | 761.0 m | 723.0 m | 706.0 m | 771.0 m | 910.0 m | 865.0 m | 898.0 m | 976.0 m |
| Operating income | 2.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.6 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 439.0 m | 436.0 m | 397.0 m ≈ | 398.0 m ≈ | 371.0 m | 393.0 m | 413.0 m ≈ | 396.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 180.0 m | 163.0 m | 163.0 m | 168.0 m | 171.0 m | 169.0 m | 171.0 m | 178.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn |
| Income tax | -319.0 m | 455.0 m | 293.0 m | 286.0 m | 6.1 bn | 543.0 m | -5.1 bn | 460.0 m |
| Net income | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.7 bn | -3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 7.4 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Diluted EPS | 2.58 ≈ | 2.83 | 2.52 | 2.43 | -2.88 ≈ | 2.78 | 6.88 | 1.87 |
| Operating cash flow | 2.6 bn | 4.6 bn | 2.6 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn ≈ | 4.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 2.4 bn ≈ | 991.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 256.0 m | 277.0 m | 214.0 m ≈ | 294.0 m ≈ | 407.0 m | 549.0 m | 533.0 m ≈ | 496.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 948.0 m | 942.0 m | 938.0 m ≈ | 968.0 m ≈ | 957.0 m | 949.0 m | 946.0 m ≈ | 973.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 1.3 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn ≈ | 2.8 bn ≈ | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 49 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 10.6, median 19.1, max 37.1; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 22.6 bn | 24.3 bn | 23.5 bn | 33.6 bn | 44.2 bn | 35.8 bn | 39.0 bn | 44.3 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +1.6% | +7.4% | −3.1% | +42.6% | +31.7% | −19.0% | +8.8% | +13.7% |
| Net income | -5.0 bn | 4.4 bn | 5.2 bn | 9.0 bn | 12.9 bn | 7.2 bn | 10.1 bn | 5.5 bn |
| Net income YoY | −303.0% | unavailable | +18.5% | +74.0% | +43.0% | −44.1% | +40.2% | −45.4% |
| Diluted EPS | -3.39 | 3.59 | 4.52 | 7.87 | 11.37 | 6.42 | 8.97 | 5.01 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −306.7% | unavailable | +25.9% | +74.1% | +44.5% | −43.5% | +39.7% | −44.1% |
| net % | -22.0% | 18.1% | 22.1% | 26.9% | 29.3% | 20.2% | 26.0% | 12.5% |
| Free cash flow | 3.1 bn | 6.4 bn | 4.4 bn | 8.6 bn | 6.8 bn | 9.8 bn | 11.2 bn | 12.8 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 28 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 5.5 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 14.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 9.3 bn USD
- Equity
- 21.2 bn USD
- Total assets
- 50.1 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.70x
- Current ratio
- 2.82x
- ROE
- 23.3%
- ROA
- 10.5%
- FCF margin
- 28.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 23.5 bn | 33.6 bn | 44.2 bn | 35.8 bn | 39.0 bn | 44.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 9.3 bn | 14.3 bn | 18.6 bn | 15.9 bn | 17.1 bn | 19.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 14.3 bn ≈ | 19.3 bn ≈ | 25.6 bn ≈ | 20.0 bn ≈ | 21.9 bn ≈ | 24.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025derived |
| Research & development | 6.0 bn | 7.2 bn | 8.2 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.9 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| SG&A | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | 6.3 bn | 9.8 bn | 15.9 bn | 7.8 bn | 10.1 bn | 12.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 7.6 bn ≈ | 11.4 bn ≈ | 17.6 bn ≈ | 9.6 bn ≈ | 11.8 bn ≈ | 14.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 602.0 m | 559.0 m | 490.0 m | 694.0 m | 697.0 m | 664.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 5.7 bn | 10.3 bn | 15.0 bn | 7.4 bn | 10.3 bn | 12.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 521.0 m | 1.2 bn | 2.0 bn | 104.0 m | 226.0 m | 7.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 5.2 bn | 9.0 bn | 12.9 bn | 7.2 bn | 10.1 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.52 | 7.87 | 11.37 | 6.42 | 8.97 | 5.01 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.54 | 2.66 | 2.86 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 3.48 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 6.7 bn | 7.1 bn | 2.8 bn | 8.5 bn | 7.8 bn | 5.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 2.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 4.2 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Inventories | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.4 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 18.5 bn | 20.1 bn | 20.7 bn | 22.5 bn | 25.2 bn | 25.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 3.7 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.7 bn | 4.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 6.3 bn | 7.2 bn | 10.5 bn | 10.6 bn | 10.8 bn | 11.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.7 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Total assets | 35.6 bn | 41.2 bn | 49.0 bn | 51.0 bn | 55.2 bn | 50.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 500.0 m | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 914.0 m | 1.4 bn | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 15.2 bn | 13.7 bn | 13.5 bn | 14.5 bn | 13.3 bn | 14.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 8.7 bn | 12.0 bn | 11.9 bn | 9.6 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 29.5 bn | 31.3 bn | 31.0 bn | 29.5 bn | 28.9 bn | 28.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 6.1 bn | 10.0 bn | 18.0 bn | 21.6 bn | 26.3 bn | 21.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 5.8 bn | 10.5 bn | 9.1 bn | 11.3 bn | 12.2 bn | 14.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 4.4 bn ≈ | 8.6 bn ≈ | 6.8 bn ≈ | 9.8 bn ≈ | 11.2 bn ≈ | 12.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -5.3 bn | -3.4 bn | -5.8 bn | 762.0 m | -3.6 bn | -800.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -5.7 bn | -6.8 bn | -7.2 bn | -6.7 bn | -9.3 bn | -13.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.9 bn | 3.0 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 2.5 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 8.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 05 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 53 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 172.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation60
- Returns100
- Quality70
- Balance sheet48
- Growth20
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 17.97 – 250.44 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)119.48 – 190.97 (Mid 146.97)WACC 8.9% · starting FCFF 11.0 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 73%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 4.6%
- Peers: EV/Sales17.97 – 250.44 (Mid 53.33)10 companies used · median multiple 1.5x · quartiles 0.7x – 6.2xAVNW, BKSY, CRNT, GILT, HLIT, KUST, MSI, UI, VISN, WATT
- Peers: EV/EBITDA72.36 – 234.35 (Mid 101.65)6 companies used · median multiple 10.0x · quartiles 7.4x – 21.8xAVNW, CRNT, GILT, MSI, UI, VISN
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 53/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gross margin · Quality | 54.2% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| EBIT margin · Quality | 23.2% | 90 (vs peers) | 9% |
| FCF margin · Quality | 23.6% | 95 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 0.1% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth | 13.7% | 60 (vs peers) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 25 (vs peers) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 72 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| EV/Sales · Valuation | 4.2x | 30 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 7.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Growth20/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality70/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns100/100 · 1/1 factors with a value
- Valuation60/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
Memo
QUALCOMM INC/DE (QCOM). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-28.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 44.3 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.7%; net margin 21.0%; ROE 33.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.9x.
The estimated value range is 72.36–234.35 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 101.65 USD, the price of 164.43 USD leaves a potential of -38.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -61.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 53/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- EBIT margin: 23.2%
- FCF margin: 23.6%
- Current ratio: 2.0x
- FCF yield: 6.0%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 7.6%
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 0.1%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.9x
- EV/Sales: 4.2x
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCOMQualcomm Inc | 172.7 bn | 19.0 | 33.8% | 21.0% | +13.7% | −9% / +38% |
| MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc. | 81.3 bn | 38.7 | 92.0% | 17.4% | +8.0% | +33% / +52% |
| UIUbiquiti Inc. | 33.0 bn | 34.4 | 91.1% | 29.3% | +27.2% | −6% / +386% |
| PLPlanet Labs PBC | 3.3 bn | — | -72.0% | -95.1% | +25.9% | +6% / +421% |
| ONDSOndas Inc. | 3.0 bn | 18.0 | 20.1% | 96.0% | +605.3% | −33% / +381% |
| VISNVistance Networks, Inc. | 1.5 bn | 0.2 | 22,304.0% | 247.7% | +39.7% | −67% / +286% |
| HLITHarmonic Inc. | 1.1 bn | — | -11.7% | -13.7% | −26.2% | +7% / −8% |
| BKSYBlacksky Technology Inc | 686.3 m | — | -44.8% | -61.2% | +4.4% | −5% / +59% |
| UMACUnusual Machines, Inc. | 650.9 m | — | -2.9% | -20.3% | +101.2% | +49% / unavailable |
| GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd. | 521.2 m | 20.8 | 5.2% | 4.6% | +47.9% | −39% / +10% |
| AVNWAviat Networks, Inc. | 254.8 m | 104.7 | 1.0% | 0.6% | +1.2% | −10% / −34% |
| BKTIBK Technologies Corp | 252.4 m | 19.7 | 30.6% | 15.0% | +12.5% | +5% / +415% |
| CRNTCeragon Networks Ltd | 176.8 m | — | -1.2% | -0.6% | −14.1% | −2% / +6% |
| VUZIVuzix Corp | 171.4 m | — | -122.7% | -519.0% | +9.1% | −25% / −3% |
| SATLSatellogic Inc. | 87.6 m | — | — | -325.6% | +37.6% | +95% / +140% |
| AIRGAirgain, Inc. | 55.4 m | — | -23.7% | -13.6% | −14.6% | +4% / +76% |
| WATTEnergous Corporation | 45.0 m | — | -32.8% | -76.4% | +633.1% | +30% / −87% |
| CMTLComtech Telecommunications Corp | 37.4 m | — | -50.5% | -14.5% | −17.0% | −59% / −90% |
| KUSTKustom Entertainment, Inc. | 22.6 m | — | -323.8% | -126.5% | +1.7% | −98% / −100% |
| ERICEricsson Lm Telephone Co | — | — | 27.9% | 12.0% | −4.5% | +15% / +126% |
| NOKNokia Corporation | — | — | 3.1% | 3.3% | +3.5% | +36% / +137% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for QCOM from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 94.61 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 167.64 Total return 4% · Per year 4% | 253.03 Total return 57% · Per year 57% |
| 3 years | 83.82 Total return -44% · Per year -18% | 167.86 Total return 9% · Per year 3% | 279.30 Total return 78% · Per year 21% |
| 5 years | 74.25 Total return -47% · Per year -12% | 168.07 Total return 13% · Per year 3% | 308.30 Total return 102% · Per year 15% |
- Exit P/E± 41.96
- Net margin± 29.37
- Annual revenue growth± 25.18
- Annual dilution± 2.47
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Qualcomm (QCOM) reported revenues of 44.3 billion USD in fiscal 2025, up 14% 1, but net income fell 45% to 5.5 billion USD 1, reflecting a 5.7 billion USD tax charge 1. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, revenues declined 4% to 9.9 billion USD 23, and the company targets faster growth from outside handset sales.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on large customershigh
A small number of customers generate a significant share of revenue, and losing one could affect results 1.
- Vertical integrationhigh
Customers developing their own circuits could reduce the company's sales over time 1.
- China exposure and trade tensionshigh
A significant part of the business is tied to China, and trade restrictions could limit transactions 1.
- Taxmedium
Recognizing a large tax charge in fiscal 2025 shows that tax decisions can materially affect results 1.
- Production costsmedium
Rising input costs in the semiconductor industry could compress margins before pricing adjusts 3.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in automotive, IoT and Data Center revenue is sustained, dependence on phones could decline over time 23.
- On-device AI platforms and advanced connectivity could expand demand for the company's products 1.
- High-margin licensing income provides a stable base if existing agreements are renewed 1.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Delivery against fourth-quarter revenue guidanceQ4 2026
- Gross margin trend as higher costs are passed into pricesQ1 2027
- Growth of non-handset revenue and the fiscal 2027 target2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company has three reportable segments: QCT for semiconductors, QTL for licensing and QSI for strategic investments 1. Non-reportable segments include QGOV and the Data Center business 1. The fiscal year ends on the last Sunday of September 1.
Qualcomm presents itself as a global computing leader with a focus on AI on devices, automotive and IoT beyond phones 13. The Alphawave acquisition and the completed Modular Inc acquisition are part of its diversification strategy 23.
Segments
QTL (licensing)
Licensing revenues were about 5.6 billion USD in fiscal 2025, with an EBT margin of 72% 1. The company signed new long-term licenses with two major Chinese OEMs and a comprehensive agreement with Transsion, ending related litigation 1. In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, QTL revenues declined 3% 2.
Market context
Trends
- On-device AItailwind
Local AI processing could expand the use of phones, PCs and wearables, supporting demand for Snapdragon platforms 1.
- Customer vertical integrationheadwind
Large customers are developing their own integrated circuits, which could reduce the company's sales to them over time 1.
- Rising input costsmixed
The semiconductor industry faces higher costs for materials and memory, and the company is passing them into pricing, with gradual effects on margins 3.
- Automotive connectivitytailwind
Adoption of cellular connectivity and advanced driver assistance is rising in vehicles, and Qualcomm could benefit if these trends continue 13.
Competitive position
Competition is intense and technology changes rapidly, which can lower average selling prices or demand for the company's products 1. Large customers can also choose competitors' integrated circuits 1.
The company could lose handset share if premium-tier customers shift to other solutions, and price pressure grows as purchasing power concentrates among buyers 1.
- AppleAAPL
Important modem customer that is increasingly using its own modems in future devices 1.
- Samsung
Large customer that develops its own integrated circuits for some devices 1.
- Xiaomi
Chinese manufacturer that also uses its own circuits in some devices 1.
- Huawei
License expired, so royalties from this manufacturer no longer appear in QTL 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Qualcomm is betting big on data centers as smartphone sales sinkThe Verge · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Coherent, AppLovin, Expedia, Qualcomm and moreCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm’s stock falls as twin forces pressure salesMarketWatch — Top Stories · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm stock drops 5% on weak earnings forecast as memory shortage weighs on smartphone salesCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm shares slide as smartphone weakness clouds growth pushCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm's smartphone chip sales miss estimates, shares fallCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm Cloud AI 100 Ultra – 150W AI Accelerator Card with 128GB at 548GB/sHacker News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm sat out the semiconductor rally. Can a SpaceX partnership change that?MarketWatch — Top Stories · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- SpaceX is working with Qualcomm to build its Starlink Mobile 5G networkThe Verge · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- BREAKING: SpaceX has officially announced a partnership with Qualcomm to build S…Telegram — Insider Paper (EN, defense leaks) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- SpaceX teams up with Qualcomm to bring Starlink Mobile coverage to the groundAnadolu Agency (TR, EN) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- SpaceX signs deal with Qualcomm to provide network technology for U.S. mobile serviceCNBC — Top News · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm signs major 5G infrastructure deal with SpaceX for Starlink Mobile networkCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 04 Nov 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm to cut jobs worldwide in performance-focused layoffs, internal memo showsCNBC — Top News · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Exclusive-Qualcomm to cut jobs worldwide in performance-focused layoffs, internal memo showsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 20 Oct 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm Legally Proves Arm Breached Its License, Wins $2Hacker News · 16 Oct 2026 · EN
- Delaware jury awards Qualcomm $2 in damages, finds Arm breached license agreementCNBC — Top News · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Delaware jury awards Qualcomm $2 in damages, finds Arm breached license agreementCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 13 Oct 2026 · EN
- Qualcomm: companiile de AI încep să facă telefoaneProfit.ro · 13 Oct 2026 · RO
- Qualcomm and Arm set for jury verdict in contract breach feudCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 09 Oct 2026 · EN
SEC filings
- Current report08 Sept 2026Item 3.02
- Current report31 Jul 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Jun 2026Item 3.02
- Quarterly report29 Apr 2026
- Current report29 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Mar 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report04 Feb 2026
- Current report04 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-28 · SEC / QCOM · 05 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-28 · SEC / QCOM · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / QCOM · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.