olivlawolivlaw

olivLaw · US equity research

Ondas Inc. ONDS

Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment · SIC 3663 · Vertical: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663)

5.27USD−8.98% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Ondas Inc. is a defense, security and critical infrastructure technology company developing autonomous aerial and ground systems, counter-drone solutions and strategic investments. Its relevance now comes from rapid revenue growth and a growing order book, as demand for autonomous defense systems rises and quarterly revenue reached 83.8 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ondas Inc. (ONDS) stock was 5.27 USD (−8.98% on the day), with market capitalisation 3.0 bn USD, P/E 18.0 on diluted EPS of -0.62 USD over the last 12 months, beta 2.68, 52-week range 5.25–14.01 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 83.8 m USD (+1,235.4% YoY), net income of -88.4 m USD, diluted EPS -0.19 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
3.0 bn USD
shares as of 11 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.0
Diluted EPS TTM -0.62 · TTM to 31 Dec 2025
E/P (TTM)
-11.76%
TTM to 31 Dec 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
2.68
Volatility (1y) 106%
52-week range
5.2514.01

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
30.4
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
5.46 – 7.13
below the lower band · %B -0.11 · band width 26.6%
SMA 50 / 200
7.01 / 8.93
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.35 / -0.30
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−29.0%−1.1%−27.9 pp—
3 months−40.6%−0.5%−40.1 pp—
6 months−43.6%+4.4%−48.0 pp—
Year to date−46.0%+12.3%−58.3 pp—
1 year−11.6%+13.5%−25.1 pp+3.5%
3 years+867.0%+76.4%+790.6 pp+53.9%
5 years−44.5%+63.7%−108.1 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−62.4%
08 Jan 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−97.0%
15 Nov 2021 → 25 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
−11.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
83.8 m USD
+1,235.4% YoY
Net income
-88.4 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.19
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-105.5% / -194.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.5 m4.1 m4.2 m6.3 m10.1 m30.1 m50.1 m83.8 m
Cost of revenue1.4 m3.2 m2.8 m2.9 m7.5 m17.4 m25.5 m47.6 m
Gross profit47.6 k883.3 k1.5 m3.3 m2.6 m12.7 m24.7 m36.1 m
Research & development3.2 m3.1 m3.5 m4.2 m4.5 m8.7 m13.5 m31.0 m
Operating income-8.7 m-8.5 m-10.3 m-9.3 m-15.5 m-23.3 m-42.7 m-162.9 m
Depreciation & amortisation1.2 m177.4 k181.0 k189.0 k ≈195.6 k ≈380.4 k669.0 k934.0 k ≈
Interest expense871.3 k1.3 m3.9 m1.6 m444.4 k702.2 k338.0 k1.0 m
Pre-tax income-9.5 m-10.3 m-14.1 m-10.8 m-7.2 m-100.8 m361.5 m-118.7 m
Income tax———0307.5 k180.5 k245.0 k-29.1 m
Net income-9.5 m-10.3 m-14.1 m-10.8 m-7.5 m-99.9 m362.8 m-88.4 m
Diluted EPS-0.15—-0.15-0.08-0.03—0.56-0.19
Operating cash flow-9.1 m ≈-8.1 m-6.7 m-8.4 m ≈-11.0 m ≈-12.7 m-51.3 m-86.1 m ≈
Capex-675.9 k ≈29.6 k171.0 k96.0 k ≈170.3 k ≈1.6 m1.3 m7.8 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year⚠ 201720182019202120222023⚠ 20242025
Revenue274.4 k190.0 k320.4 k2.9 m2.1 m15.7 m7.2 m50.7 m
Revenue YoY—−30.7%+68.6%unavailable−26.9%+638.1%—+605.3%
Net income-3.0 m-12.1 m-19.4 m-15.0 m-73.2 m-44.8 m-38.0 m-132.2 m
Net income YoY—unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailable-0.44-1.73-0.88-0.61-0.62
Diluted EPS YoY—unavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable—unavailable
net %-1,101.4%-6,365.8%-6,052.2%-516.9%-3,445.3%-285.8%-528.4%-260.7%
Free cash flowunavailable-9.1 m-14.7 m-17.8 m-40.8 m-34.2 m-35.1 m-40.8 m

The series breaks before 2017, 2024: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.

Reported results vs expectations

Loading…

Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
550.7 m USD
Financial debt
unavailable USD
Net debt
unavailable USD
Equity
441.8 m USD
Total assets
1.1 bn USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
4.84x
ROE
-57.7%
ROA
-21.3%
FCF margin
-80.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
15.7 m
2024
7.2 m
2025
50.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
9.3 m
2024
6.8 m
2025
30.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
6.4 m
2024
345.0 k
2025
20.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
17.1 m
2024
12.5 m
2025
20.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-39.7 m
2024
-34.6 m
2025
-58.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
5.0 m
2024
602.0 k
2025
946.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-34.7 m ≈
2024
-34.0 m ≈
2025
-57.4 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
4.2 m
2024
3.6 m
2025
6.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-44.8 m
2024
-38.0 m
2025
-132.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
—
2024
—
2025
488.0 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-44.8 m
2024
-38.0 m
2025
-132.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.88
2024
-0.61
2025
-0.62

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
52.7 m
2024
69.9 k
2025
221.8 k

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
15.0 m
2024
30.0 m
2025
550.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
3.4 m
2024
5.2 m
2025
22.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
2.2 m
2024
9.8 m
2025
22.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
23.6 m
2024
47.5 m
2025
685.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
4.2 m
2024
2.6 m
2025
10.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
27.8 m
2024
27.8 m
2025
251.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
31.3 m
2024
27.2 m
2025
136.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
92.2 m
2024
109.6 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
5.2 m
2024
5.7 m
2025
13.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 13 Mar 2020verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
300.0 k
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 12 Mar 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
35.9 m
2024
50.6 m
2025
141.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
47.1 m
2024
73.7 m
2025
661.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
33.1 m
2024
16.6 m
2025
441.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-34.0 m
2024
-33.5 m
2025
-38.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
211.0 k
2024
1.6 m
2025
2.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-34.2 m ≈
2024
-35.1 m ≈
2025
-40.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
536.3 k
2024
-1.7 m
2025
-260.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
18.7 m
2024
50.2 m
2025
862.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
605.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
187.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
43.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-139.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-140.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
96.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-98.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
20.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
input data missing
ROCE
-8.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
unavailable
input data missing
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
Debt / equity
unavailable
input data missing
Interest coverage
-96.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
9.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
4.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-161.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
10.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-171.9 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-102.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
68 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
3.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
unavailable
input data missing
Market cap / net income TTM
18.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
17.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
EV/EBIT
unavailable
input data missing
EV/Sales
unavailable
input data missing
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-5.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

4 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

5.27 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 3.0 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
3.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
18.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
input data missing
ROE
20.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
96.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
605.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 11 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 1325derived 111

Score by group

72% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/Salesunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · net debt missing: EV cannot be bridged to equity (missing debt is not zero)

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
Gross margin · Quality43.7%9 (on a fixed band)15%
EBIT margin · Quality-140.4%5 (vs peers)12%
FCF margin · Quality-98.7%0 (on a fixed band)12%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth187.9%100 (on a fixed band)24%
Revenue growth (YoY) · Growth605.3%95 (vs peers)12%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet9.8x100 (on a fixed band)9%
EV/Sales · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-5.7%0 (on a fixed band)18%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Growth98/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality5/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/1 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Ondas Inc. (ONDS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 50.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 605.3%; net margin 96.0%; ROE 20.1%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 187.9%
  • Revenue growth (YoY): 605.3%
  • Current ratio: 9.8x

What contradicts it

  • Gross margin: 43.7%
  • EBIT margin: -140.4%
  • FCF margin: -98.7%
  • FCF yield: -5.7%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Net debt / EBITDA, EV/Sales, Shareholder yield (distributions).

Versus the vertical median

Radio & Tv Broadcasting & Communications Equipment (SIC 3663) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
18.0x
vertical median 20.8x
below median (−13.3%)
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 12.4x
P/S
17.3x
vertical median 3.0x
above median (+474.0%)
P/B
1.9x
vertical median 2.8x
below median (−32.5%)
ROE
20.1%
vertical median -1.2%
above median
Net margin
96.0%
vertical median -7.1%
above median
EBIT margin
-140.4%
vertical median 1.6%
below median (−8,925.9%)
Revenue YoY
605.3%
vertical median 6.2%
above median (+9,673.0%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median -0.4x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.0%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
QCOMQualcomm Inc185.3 bn13.652.8%31.6%−2.6%+3% / +34%
MSIMotorola Solutions, Inc.82.2 bn40.077.2%16.5%+8.0%+34% / +54%
UIUbiquiti Inc.34.0 bn35.491.1%29.3%+27.2%−4% / +400%
PLPlanet Labs PBC3.3 bn—-72.0%-95.1%+25.9%+6% / +421%
ONDSOndas Inc.3.0 bn18.020.1%96.0%+605.3%−12% / +867%
VISNVistance Networks, Inc.1.5 bn0.222,304.0%247.7%+39.7%−67% / +286%
HLITHarmonic Inc.1.1 bn—-11.7%-13.7%−26.2%+7% / −8%
BKSYBlacksky Technology Inc686.3 m—-44.8%-61.2%+4.4%−5% / +59%
UMACUnusual Machines, Inc.650.9 m—-2.9%-20.3%+101.2%+49% / unavailable
GILTGilat Satellite Networks Ltd.521.2 m20.85.2%4.6%+47.9%−39% / +10%
AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.254.8 m104.71.0%0.6%+1.2%−10% / −34%
BKTIBK Technologies Corp252.4 m19.730.6%15.0%+12.5%+5% / +415%
CRNTCeragon Networks Ltd176.8 m—-1.2%-0.6%−14.1%−2% / +6%
VUZIVuzix Corp171.4 m—-122.7%-519.0%+9.1%−25% / −3%
SATLSatellogic Inc.87.6 m——-325.6%+37.6%+95% / +140%
AIRGAirgain, Inc.55.4 m—-23.7%-13.6%−14.6%+4% / +76%
WATTEnergous Corporation45.0 m—-32.8%-76.4%+633.1%+30% / −87%
CMTLComtech Telecommunications Corp37.4 m—-50.5%-14.5%−17.0%−59% / −90%
KUSTKustom Entertainment, Inc.22.6 m—-323.8%-126.5%+1.7%−98% / −100%
ERICEricsson Lm Telephone Co——27.9%12.0%−4.5%+15% / +126%
NOKNokia Corporation——3.1%3.3%+3.5%+36% / +137%

1- and 3-year price returns: for ONDS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
3.44
Total return -35% · Per year -35%
6.06
Total return 15% · Per year 15%
9.09
Total return 73% · Per year 73%
3 years
4.08
Total return -22% · Per year -8%
8.02
Total return 52% · Per year 15%
13.09
Total return 148% · Per year 35%
5 years
4.85
Total return -8% · Per year -2%
10.60
Total return 101% · Per year 15%
18.85
Total return 258% · Per year 29%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 2.00
  • Net margin± 1.40
  • Annual revenue growth± 1.05
  • Annual dilution± 0.12

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Ondas Inc. is a defense, security and critical infrastructure technology company developing autonomous aerial and ground systems, counter-drone solutions and strategic investments. Its relevance now comes from rapid revenue growth and a growing order book, as demand for autonomous defense systems rises and quarterly revenue reached 83.8 million USD 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Integrated portfolio of autonomous systems and the ability to deliver complete solutions for critical missions 1.
  • Solid financial position with high liquidity after capital raises in 2025 and 2026 23.
  • Rapid growth in orders and backlog, including through recent acquisitions 3.

Weaknesses

  • Large net losses and accounting gains and losses that weigh on reported results 12.
  • Dependence on a few major customers and on one client that accounts for most of receivables 1.
  • Gross margin fell in the second quarter of 2026, partly due to amortization of capitalized intellectual property 2.

Opportunities

  • Rising demand for counter-drone and ISR systems in Europe and the US could support order growth 13.
  • Expansion into large government programs, including through integrator partnerships, could increase the scale of the business 3.
  • If acquisition integration succeeds, operating synergies could improve margins and cost efficiency 3.

Threats

  • Government budgets and procurement policies can change, affecting contract timing and volume 1.
  • Competition for tenders and challenges to awards can raise costs and delay contracts 1.
  • Execution risk from rapidly integrating several acquired companies could affect future results 3.

Risks

  • Persistent operating losseshigh

    The company has reported large net losses and stated it cannot assure it will achieve sustained profitability, which could affect the share price and financing capacity 1.

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    A few customers have generated a major part of revenue, and losing one of them could significantly affect results 1.

  • Dependence on government fundinghigh

    Revenue from the OAS segment depends on public budgets and tender processes, which can be delayed or cancelled 1.

  • Acquisition integrationmedium

    Rapid acquisitions in 2026 carry integration risks for systems, personnel and processes, with possible cost effects 3.

  • Accounting adjustments and contingent considerationmedium

    Changes in fair value unrelated to current operations, such as contingent consideration, can affect reported net income 3.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Revenue and backlog growth, combined with a solid liquidity position, could support the company's expansion plans if execution stays consistent 3.
  • Positioning in C-UAS and ISR, aligned with defense and security demand, could bring repeatable long-term orders 13.
  • If acquisition integration produces synergies, margins and operating efficiency could improve in coming periods 3.

What would break the thesis

  • Large net losses and uncertainty about reaching profitability could limit financial flexibility and pressure the share price 12.
  • Revenue concentration in a few government customers exposes the company to delays and contract cancellations 1.
  • Rapid growth through acquisitions could outpace integration capacity, with effects on costs and margins 23.

What to watch

  • Delivery against the 2026 revenue guidanceQ4 2026
  • Development of backlog and new orders after the DZYNE and Cyberhawk additionsQ3 2026
  • Timing of adjusted EBITDA profitability announced in the results release2027
  • Gross margin after acquisition integration and amortization of capitalized intellectual propertynext 10-Q

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Ondas Inc. organizes its activity into business units, including Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS), focused on autonomous aerial and ground systems for defense, homeland security and critical infrastructure, and Ondas Capital, which coordinates strategic investments and partnerships 1. According to the 2025 annual report, the company focuses on CUAS, aerial ISR and UGV capabilities delivered as integrated solutions rather than standalone products 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported revenue of 83.8 million USD, per its results release 3.

In 2026 Ondas deconsolidated Ondas Networks, effective January 16, 2026, so its results no longer appear in consolidated financial statements 2. Private wireless activity is therefore outside the current perimeter, and the analysis focuses mainly on OAS and recent defense acquisitions 2.

Segments

Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS)

OAS is the main revenue driver, with product, service and development sales for counter-drone, aerial ISR and ground robotics systems 1. The segment generated nearly all revenue in 2025, and in the second quarter of 2026 product revenue reached 43.4 million USD 12.

Ondas Capital

Ondas Capital manages minority investments, partnerships and capital formation initiatives that support the growth strategy, without material operating results in 2025 1. Its role has expanded with the 2026 acquisitions and the launch of European air defense partnerships 3.

Market context

The company is directing its strategy toward the C-UAS and UGV markets, where North American spending is projected to reach 6.8 billion USD by 2028 and the global UGV market reached about 2.48 billion USD in 2024 1. Government demand, especially from defense and homeland security, is the main driver, but budgets can vary, which could affect order timing 1.

The air defense and autonomous systems market is competitive, and public procurement often runs through tenders with risks of protests and delays 1. If demand in Europe and the Middle East strengthens, the order book could support growth in the second half of 2026 3.

Trends

  • Rising demand for counter-drone systemstailwind

    Spending on C-UAS systems is growing quickly in several regions, and the company reports orders in Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific 13.

  • Volatile government budgetsheadwind

    Funding for defense programs depends on budget processes and procurement policies, which can lead to delays or contract reductions 1.

  • Integration of acquisitionsmixed

    Integrating acquired companies such as DZYNE and Cyberhawk could bring scale and operational efficiency, but also costs and execution risks 3.

  • Standardization and certificationmixed

    Type approvals and compliance requirements for autonomous flight shape the pace of adoption of aerial systems in civil and military airspace 1.

Competitive position

Ondas operates in a competitive environment where defense contracts are won through tenders and where competitors can challenge awards 1. The company differentiates through system integration and its ability to deliver complete solutions rather than individual platforms 1.

In the C-UAS and UGV markets competition includes defense system makers and large integrators, and an advantage can come from customer relationships and partnerships, such as the collaboration with Lockheed Martin 3. Partnerships with integrators and large suppliers, such as Huntington Ingalls Industries, could support access to larger programs 3.

  • Lockheed MartinLMT

    Collaboration partner cited for integrating CUAS capabilities into the Sanctum platform, and also a possible competitor on defense programs 3.

  • Huntington Ingalls IndustriesHII

    New partner cited for ISR orders supporting SOUTHCOM programs 3.

  • US and European C-UAS and UGV system suppliers

    Companies offering comparable counter-drone and ground robotics systems and competing for the same defense budgets 1.

  • Regional defense integrators

    Local players competing for national tenders that may hold an advantage through government relationships, as described in the risk disclosures 1.

News & filings

In the press

The latest news item in our archive is from 17 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 13 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

SEC filings

  • Current report13 Oct 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report23 Sept 2026
    Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report14 Sept 2026
    Material agreement · Acquisition or disposition of assets · Item 3.02 · Regulation FD disclosure · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report28 Aug 2026
    Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report13 Aug 2026
  • Current report13 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report10 Aug 2026
    Acquisition or disposition of assets · Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report07 Aug 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report24 Jul 2026
    Item 3.02 · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ondas Inc. · 30 Mar 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Ondas Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ondas Inc. · 13 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.