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olivLaw · US equity research

Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts · SIC 3760 · Vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

595.04USD−6.88% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Lockheed Martin is a US aerospace and defense company that builds fighter jets, missiles, helicopters, naval systems and satellites, with a large share of its sales coming from the US government. Demand for missile defense products such as PAC-3 and THAAD is strong, and its backlog has reached a record level, giving multi-year visibility. Sales in fiscal 2025 were 75.0 billion USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) stock was 595.04 USD (−6.88% on the day), with market capitalisation 137.5 bn USD, P/E 21.1 on diluted EPS of 28.15 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.32%, beta 0.11, 52-week range 439.19–676.70 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 20.7 bn USD (+11.3% YoY), net income of 1.8 bn USD (+14.0% YoY), diluted EPS 7.97 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
137.5 bn USD
shares as of 19 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.1
Diluted EPS TTM 28.15 · TTM to 27 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.73%
TTM to 27 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.32%
DPS 12m 13.80
Beta (2y)
0.11
Volatility (1y) 31%
52-week range
439.19676.70

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
55.0
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
473.95 – 678.91
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.59 · band width 35.6%
SMA 50 / 200
547.96 / 569.11
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
27.39 / 23.26
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+17.5%−1.1%+18.5 pp—
3 months+3.0%−0.5%+3.5 pp—
6 months+15.7%+4.4%+11.3 pp—
Year to date+23.0%+12.3%+10.7 pp—
1 year+22.7%+13.5%+9.2 pp−0.2%
3 years+31.3%+76.4%−45.2 pp+145.2%
5 years+75.1%+63.7%+11.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−27.3%
02 Mar 2026 → 24 Jun 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−33.2%
21 Oct 2024 → 22 Jul 2025
Compound annual growth (5y)
+11.9%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 27 Sept 2026

Revenue
20.7 bn USD
+11.3% YoY
Net income
1.8 bn USD
+14.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
7.97
+14.7% YoY
net / operating
8.9% / 11.8%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue18.6 bn18.0 bn18.2 bn18.6 bn20.3 bn18.0 bn20.1 bn20.7 bn
Cost of revenue17.9 bn15.6 bn17.4 bn16.4 bn18.0 bn15.9 bn17.6 bn18.3 bn
Gross profit690.0 m2.3 bn734.0 m2.2 bn2.3 bn2.1 bn2.4 bn2.4 bn
Operating income696.0 m2.4 bn748.0 m2.3 bn2.3 bn2.1 bn2.5 bn2.4 bn
Depreciation & amortisation—397.0 m399.0 m ≈428.0 m ≈463.0 m398.0 m400.0 m ≈425.0 m ≈
Interest expense264.0 m268.0 m274.0 m286.0 m290.0 m269.0 m266.0 m264.0 m
Pre-tax income519.0 m2.0 bn417.0 m1.9 bn1.5 bn1.8 bn2.2 bn2.2 bn
Income tax-8.0 m324.0 m75.0 m319.0 m187.0 m286.0 m342.0 m327.0 m
Net income527.0 m1.7 bn342.0 m1.6 bn1.3 bn1.5 bn1.8 bn1.8 bn
Diluted EPS2.22 ≈7.281.466.955.80 ≈6.447.947.97
Operating cash flow1.0 bn1.4 bn201.0 m ≈3.7 bn ≈3.2 bn220.0 m3.2 bn ≈3.4 bn ≈
Capex582.0 m454.0 m351.0 m ≈381.0 m ≈463.0 m511.0 m318.0 m ≈439.0 m ≈
Dividends paid778.0 m796.0 m771.0 m ≈765.0 m ≈799.0 m816.0 m796.0 m ≈796.0 m ≈
Share repurchases1.0 bn750.0 m500.0 m ≈1.0 bn ≈750.0 m00 ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 70 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 14.3, median 18.4, max 48.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue53.8 bn59.8 bn65.4 bn67.0 bn66.0 bn67.6 bn71.0 bn75.0 bn
Revenue YoY+7.6%+11.3%+9.3%+2.5%−1.6%+2.4%+5.1%+5.6%
Net income5.0 bn6.2 bn6.8 bn6.3 bn5.7 bn6.9 bn5.3 bn5.0 bn
Net income YoY+157.1%+23.5%+9.7%−7.6%−9.2%+20.7%−22.9%−6.0%
Diluted EPS17.5921.9524.3022.7621.6627.5522.3121.49
Diluted EPS YoY+160.6%+24.8%+10.7%−6.3%−4.8%+27.2%−19.0%−3.7%
net %9.4%10.4%10.4%9.4%8.7%10.2%7.5%6.7%
Free cash flow1.9 bn5.8 bn6.4 bn7.7 bn6.1 bn6.2 bn5.3 bn6.9 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
4.1 bn USD
Financial debt
21.7 bn USD
Net debt
17.6 bn USD
Equity
6.7 bn USD
Total assets
59.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
3.23x
Current ratio
1.09x
ROE
76.9%
ROA
8.7%
FCF margin
9.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
67.6 bn
2024
71.0 bn
2025
75.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
59.1 bn
2024
64.1 bn
2025
67.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
8.5 bn
2024
6.9 bn
2025
7.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Research & development
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Operating income
2023
8.5 bn
2024
7.0 bn
2025
7.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.6 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
9.9 bn ≈
2024
8.6 bn ≈
2025
9.4 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
916.0 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
8.1 bn
2024
6.2 bn
2025
5.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Income tax
2023
1.2 bn
2024
884.0 m
2025
905.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Net income
2023
6.9 bn
2024
5.3 bn
2025
5.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
27.55
2024
22.31
2025
21.49

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
251.2 m
2024
239.2 m
2025
233.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
12.15
2024
12.75
2025
13.35

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
1.4 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Inventories
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Current assets
2023
20.5 bn
2024
21.8 bn
2025
25.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
8.4 bn
2024
8.7 bn
2025
11.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Apr 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
10.8 bn
2024
11.1 bn
2025
11.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
1.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Total assets
2023
52.5 bn
2024
55.6 bn
2025
59.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
168.0 m
2024
643.0 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
17.3 bn
2024
19.6 bn
2025
20.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
16.9 bn
2024
19.4 bn
2025
23.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
45.6 bn
2024
49.3 bn
2025
53.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Equity
2023
6.8 bn
2024
6.3 bn †
2025
6.7 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
241.6 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Oct 2023verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
7.9 bn
2024
7.0 bn
2025
8.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.7 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
6.2 bn ≈
2024
5.3 bn ≈
2025
6.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.7 bn
2024
-1.8 bn
2025
-2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-7.3 bn
2024
-4.1 bn
2025
-4.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
3.1 bn
2024
3.1 bn
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
6.0 bn
2024
3.7 bn
2025
3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 29 Jan 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
10.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-4.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
-6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-3.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-0.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
-2.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
30.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
11.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
13.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
11.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
FCF margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
80.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROA
10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROIC
32.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROCE
23.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
49.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
38.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
14.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
2.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
8.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
10.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
1.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
8.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
128.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
91.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
20 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
23 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
137.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
152.0 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
21.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
P/B
13.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
16.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
P/FCF
16.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
FCF yield
6.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026

Risk

Altman Z
3.70
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 60 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

595.04 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 137.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
137.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
P/B
13.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
ROE
80.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 27 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 27 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

35/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 27 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 27 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 19 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 22 Oct 2026
verified 2991derived 220

Score by group

  • Valuation40
  • Returns65
  • Quality100
  • Balance sheet76
  • Growth18

Estimated value range

Low
338.67
USD per share
Mid
413.78
USD per share
High
532.26
USD per share
Price: 595.04 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -30.5% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -43.8% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 2 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 175.43 – 828.59 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)501.90 – 828.59 (Mid 626.34)
    WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 9.3 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 2.4%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
  • Dividend discount (DDM)175.43 – 235.93 (Mid 201.23)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 60/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality32.0%100 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality8.2%100 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality128.7%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.4%37 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-0.3%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.3x77 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet8.6x100 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.3x39 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation21.1x40 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.8x11 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation6.1%76 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.9%41 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns38.3%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth18/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality100/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns65/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation40/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION (LMT). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-27.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 75.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 5.6%; net margin 8.2%; ROE 80.2%; net debt/EBITDA 1.3x.

The estimated value range is 338.67–532.26 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 413.78 USD, the price of 595.04 USD leaves a potential of -30.5% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -43.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 60/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 32.0%
  • Net margin: 8.2%
  • FCF conversion: 128.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 1.3x
  • Interest coverage: 8.6x
  • FCF yield: 6.1%
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 38.3%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -0.3%
  • EV/EBITDA: 13.8x
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
21.1x
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
vertical median —
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 10.0x
below median (−82.6%)
P/B
13.7x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+593.4%)
ROE
80.2%
vertical median -29.0%
above median
Net margin
8.2%
vertical median -68.1%
above median
EBIT margin
11.8%
vertical median -68.2%
above median
Revenue YoY
5.6%
vertical median 17.0%
below median (−66.8%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.3x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
2.3%
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation137.5 bn21.180.2%8.2%+5.6%+23% / +31%
RKLBRocket Lab Corp31.3 bn—-7.9%-21.5%+38.0%+24% / +1,096%
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.6.8 bn206.81.1%2.0%+18.5%−53% / +89%
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.2.9 bn—-238.4%-126.6%+163.0%−3% / unavailable
RDWRedwire Corporation1.9 bn—-19.2%-57.3%+10.3%+40% / +202%
MNTSMomentus Inc.40.9 m—-68.3%-927.7%−47.5%−85% / −100%
VOYGVoyager Technologies, Inc.——-38.7%-79.0%+15.4%+3% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for LMT from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
351.88
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
622.13
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
937.15
Total return 60% · Per year 60%
3 years
340.71
Total return -37% · Per year -14%
677.87
Total return 22% · Per year 7%
1,121.28
Total return 98% · Per year 26%
5 years
329.89
Total return -36% · Per year -8%
738.61
Total return 37% · Per year 7%
1,341.59
Total return 143% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 169.47
  • Net margin± 118.63
  • Annual revenue growth± 97.48
  • Annual dilution± 9.97

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Lockheed Martin is a US aerospace and defense company that builds fighter jets, missiles, helicopters, naval systems and satellites, with a large share of its sales coming from the US government. Demand for missile defense products such as PAC-3 and THAAD is strong, and its backlog has reached a record level, giving multi-year visibility. Sales in fiscal 2025 were 75.0 billion USD.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a broad base of long-term programs and a record backlog, giving visibility into future revenue.
  • Innovation capacity supported by commercial partnerships and technologies such as artificial intelligence and autonomy.

Weaknesses

  • Very high dependence on the US government, which accounts for most of sales.
  • Concentration on a few large programs, where delays or unplanned costs have a significant impact.
  • Exposure to fixed-price contracts where rising costs can reduce margins.

Opportunities

  • Higher demand for air defense and munitions could support production growth.
  • Multi-year contracts and framework agreements could bring more predictability.
  • Cooperation with commercial companies and start-ups could open new product lines.

Threats

  • Funding delays or continuing resolutions could postpone important programs.
  • Rising competition from non-traditional contractors could pressure prices.
  • Tariffs and restrictions on rare earth materials could affect costs and deliveries.

Risks

  • Dependence on the US governmenthigh

    A very large share of sales depends on the US government budget and priorities, and changes could affect revenue directly.

  • Supply chainmedium

    Component shortages and supplier delays could raise costs and postpone deliveries.

  • Fixed-price contractsmedium

    Inflation could reduce margins on fixed-price contracts if the cost increases are not recovered.

  • Procurement and regulationlow

    Changes to acquisition rules or restrictions on dividends and buybacks could affect how the company operates and manages capital.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • A record backlog and strong demand for missiles and air defense could support revenue growth over the long term.
  • The financial outlook was raised for a second consecutive quarter, which may indicate good execution.
  • Multi-year contracts and strategic programs could provide visibility and stability over the long term.

What would break the thesis

  • Dependence on the US budget could make continuing resolutions a serious problem.
  • Competitive pressure and higher costs could limit profitability growth.

What to watch

  • Adoption of the fiscal 2027 defense budget2027
  • Update to financial outlook and backlogQ4 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Lockheed Martin describes itself as a global aerospace and defense technology company that builds and sustains solutions for the security of the US and its allies, according to its fiscal 2025 annual report 1. Its activity is organized in four business segments that work as one company and offer integrated solutions across all warfighting domains 1. Its principal customers are US government agencies and allies, and in 2025, 72% of sales came from the US government and the rest from international customers, including foreign military sales 1.

Market context

The procurement framework is changing, with the government shifting toward multi-year contracts and commercial acquisition tools, which could alter margins and revenue timing 1. If funding stays limited by continuing resolutions, new programs could be delayed 1.

Trends

  • Demand for munitions and air defensetailwind

    Regional conflicts have increased interest in missiles and air defense systems, and the company is expanding production capacity for PAC-3, THAAD and PrSM 12. If production can scale without delays, growth could continue.

  • Tariff policy and supply chainsmixed

    Tariffs affected cash flows and the company received refunds for part of them 12. Rare earth supply risks remain, but part of the impact could be recovered.

  • US defense budgetmixed

    The fiscal 2026 defense budget was approved with an increase, but fiscal 2027 funding remains uncertain and continuing resolutions could delay programs 2.

Competitive position

The company competes with many defense and aerospace contractors, including Boeing, General Dynamics, L3Harris, Northrop Grumman and RTX 1. Competition is also rising from new entrants and non-traditional contractors, which may pressure prices 1.

Competitors may have more specialized capabilities in certain areas and may offer lower cost or faster products, which could reduce the chances of winning new contracts or recompetes 1.

  • The Boeing CompanyBA

    Competitor in military aircraft and defense programs, named as a primary competitor in the annual report.

  • General DynamicsGD

    Competitor in defense systems and naval programs, named among primary competitors.

  • Northrop GrummanNOC

    Competitor in aeronautics, space and defense systems, named among primary competitors.

  • RTX CorporationRTX

    Competitor in missiles and defense systems, and a partner on certain joint programs such as Javelin.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Lockheed Martin Corporation · 29 Jan 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-27 · SEC / Lockheed Martin Corporation · 22 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Lockheed Martin Corporation · 22 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.