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olivLaw · US equity research

Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC

Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys · SIC 3812 · Vertical: Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812)

525.35USD−4.53% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Northrop Grumman is a global aerospace and defense company organized into four sectors: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. The U.S. government accounted for 84 percent of sales in 2025, and backlog reached $110 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2026. Third quarter 2026 sales rose 7 percent to $11.1 billion.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) stock was 525.35 USD (−4.53% on the day), with market capitalisation 74.6 bn USD, P/E 16.6 on diluted EPS of 31.70 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.82%, beta 0.05, 52-week range 473.46–768.02 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 11.1 bn USD (+6.7% YoY), net income of 1.1 bn USD (+2.2% YoY), diluted EPS 7.89 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
74.6 bn USD
shares as of 15 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.6
Diluted EPS TTM 31.70 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
6.03%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.82%
DPS 12m 9.56
Beta (2y)
0.05
Volatility (1y) 29%
52-week range
473.46768.02

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
47.7
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
468.53 – 586.95
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.48 · band width 22.4%
SMA 50 / 200
520.10 / 589.32
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
10.78 / 9.95
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+10.3%−1.1%+11.4 pp—
3 months−5.8%−0.5%−5.3 pp—
6 months−6.1%+4.4%−10.5 pp—
Year to date−7.9%+12.3%−20.2 pp—
1 year−9.0%+13.5%−22.5 pp+3.2%
3 years+11.6%+76.4%−64.8 pp+74.8%
5 years+44.2%+63.7%−19.5 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−38.4%
02 Mar 2026 → 07 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−38.4%
02 Mar 2026 → 07 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
+7.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
11.1 bn USD
+6.7% YoY
Net income
1.1 bn USD
+2.2% YoY
Diluted EPS
7.89
+2.9% YoY
net / operating
10.1% / 11.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue10.7 bn9.5 bn10.4 bn10.4 bn11.7 bn9.9 bn10.9 bn11.1 bn
Operating income1.1 bn573.0 m1.4 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn989.0 m1.1 bn1.3 bn
Depreciation & amortisation414.0 m337.0 m350.0 m379.0 m406.0 m372.0 m367.0 m379.0 m
Interest expense160.0 m156.0 m173.0 m161.0 m175.0 m162.0 m161.0 m158.0 m
Pre-tax income1.6 bn578.0 m1.4 bn1.3 bn1.7 bn1.0 bn1.2 bn1.3 bn
Income tax287.0 m97.0 m253.0 m223.0 m313.0 m155.0 m74.0 m174.0 m
Net income1.3 bn481.0 m1.2 bn1.1 bn1.4 bn875.0 m1.1 bn1.1 bn
Diluted EPS8.67 ≈3.328.157.679.99 ≈6.147.687.89
Operating cash flow2.6 bn-1.6 bn868.0 m ≈1.6 bn ≈3.9 bn-1.7 bn1.3 bn ≈1.7 bn ≈
Capex816.0 m256.0 m231.0 m301.0 m662.0 m167.0 m302.0 m ≈306.0 m ≈
Dividends paid299.0 m302.0 m332.0 m ≈330.0 m ≈329.0 m333.0 m351.0 m ≈351.0 m ≈
Share repurchases441.0 m480.0 m411.0 m ≈277.0 m ≈456.0 m68.0 m0 ≈0 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 40 percentile of its own 40-quarter history (min 8.9, median 17.8, max 34.7; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue30.1 bn33.8 bn36.8 bn35.7 bn36.6 bn39.3 bn41.0 bn42.0 bn
Revenue YoY+15.7%+12.4%+8.7%−3.1%+2.6%+7.3%+4.4%+2.2%
Net income3.2 bn2.2 bn3.2 bn7.0 bn4.9 bn2.1 bn4.2 bn4.2 bn
Net income YoY+12.5%−30.4%+41.9%+119.7%−30.1%−58.0%+103.0%+0.2%
Diluted EPS18.4913.2219.0343.5431.4713.5328.3429.08
Diluted EPS YoY+13.2%−28.5%+43.9%+128.8%−27.7%−57.0%+109.5%+2.6%
net %10.7%6.6%8.7%19.6%13.4%5.2%10.2%10.0%
Free cash flow2.6 bn3.0 bn2.9 bn2.2 bn1.5 bn2.1 bn2.6 bn3.3 bn

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
4.4 bn USD
Financial debt
15.7 bn USD
Net debt
11.3 bn USD
Equity
16.7 bn USD
Total assets
51.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.94x
Current ratio
1.10x
ROE
26.2%
ROA
8.3%
FCF margin
7.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
39.3 bn
2024
41.0 bn
2025
42.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Research & development
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Operating income
2023
2.5 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.4 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
3.9 bn ≈
2024
5.7 bn ≈
2025
6.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
545.0 m
2024
621.0 m
2025
665.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
2.3 bn
2024
5.0 bn
2025
5.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Income tax
2023
290.0 m
2024
842.0 m
2025
886.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Net income
2023
2.1 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
13.53
2024
28.34
2025
29.08

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
152.0 m
2024
147.3 m
2025
143.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
7.34
2024
8.05
2025
8.99

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
3.1 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
4.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Receivables
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Current assets
2023
13.7 bn
2024
14.3 bn
2025
15.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
9.7 bn
2024
10.5 bn
2025
11.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
17.5 bn
2024
17.5 bn
2025
17.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
305.0 m
2024
254.0 m
2025
208.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Total assets
2023
46.5 bn
2024
49.4 bn
2025
51.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
2.1 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
70.0 m
2024
1.6 bn
2025
534.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
13.8 bn
2024
14.7 bn
2025
15.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
11.9 bn
2024
14.1 bn
2025
13.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
31.7 bn
2024
34.1 bn
2025
34.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Equity
2023
14.8 bn †
2024
15.3 bn †
2025
16.7 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
3.9 bn
2024
4.4 bn
2025
4.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.8 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
2.1 bn ≈
2024
2.6 bn ≈
2025
3.3 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.6 bn
2024
-1.7 bn
2025
-1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-1.8 bn
2024
-1.4 bn
2025
-3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
1.5 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Jan 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
2.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
3.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-5.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-2.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
26.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
14.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
10.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
8.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
26.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
13.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
11.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
30.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
35.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
11.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.8x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
7.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
5.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
3.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
84.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
85.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
17 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
74.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
86.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
16.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
18.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
19.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 57 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

525.35 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 74.6 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
74.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
16.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
4.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
26.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
10.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
2.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 15 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 20 Oct 2026
verified 2851derived 204

Score by group

  • Valuation57
  • Balance sheet63
  • Quality78
  • Growth19
  • Returns62

Estimated value range

Low
447.46
USD per share
Mid
573.18
USD per share
High
666.53
USD per share
Price: 525.35 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: 9.1% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: 8.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 4 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 118.14 – 879.71 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)364.56 – 631.08 (Mid 465.27)
    WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 4.4 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 9.3%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA530.36 – 701.98 (Mid 681.10)
    3 companies used · median multiple 17.6x · quartiles 14.1x – 18.1x
    DRS, LHX, TDY
  • Peers: P/E767.43 – 879.71 (Mid 828.05)
    5 companies used · median multiple 26.1x · quartiles 24.2x – 27.8x
    CODA, DRS, GRMN, LHX, TDY
  • Dividend discount (DDM)118.14 – 158.88 (Mid 135.51)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 57/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality13.3%87 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality10.4%63 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality84.7%78 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.7%39 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-2.6%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet1.9x61 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet7.1x85 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.2x36 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation16.6x100 (vs peers)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation14.0x9 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation5.1%64 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns2.5%36 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns35.6%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet63/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth19/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality78/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns62/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ (NOC). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 42.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 2.2%; net margin 10.4%; ROE 26.1%; net debt/EBITDA 1.9x.

The estimated value range is 447.46–666.53 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 573.18 USD, the price of 525.35 USD leaves a potential of 9.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 8.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 13.3%
  • FCF conversion: 84.7%
  • Interest coverage: 7.1x
  • P/E (TTM): 16.6x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 35.6%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -2.6%
  • EV/EBITDA: 14.0x

Versus the vertical median

Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
16.6x
vertical median 26.1x
below median (−36.6%)
EV/EBITDA
14.0x
vertical median 17.6x
below median (−20.4%)
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−42.8%)
P/B
4.0x
vertical median 2.6x
above median (+52.9%)
ROE
26.1%
vertical median 9.5%
above median (+175.4%)
Net margin
10.4%
vertical median 7.3%
above median (+42.4%)
EBIT margin
10.6%
vertical median 10.7%
at median
Revenue YoY
2.2%
vertical median 7.9%
below median (−71.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
1.9x
vertical median 0.9x
above median (+109.3%)
Dividend yield
1.8%
vertical median 1.0%
above median (+79.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp74.6 bn16.626.1%10.4%+2.2%−9% / +12%
GRMNGarmin Ltd55.7 bn27.822.4%25.6%+15.1%+48% / +137%
LHXL3harris Technologies, Inc.48.4 bn24.210.3%5.2%unavailable−7% / +36%
TDYTeledyne Technologies Inc29.1 bn28.99.5%15.8%+7.9%+27% / +57%
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.9.5 bn26.113.2%9.4%+12.8%+4% / +93%
NNNextNav Inc.1.5 bn—-77.9%-2,812.5%−19.3%−38% / +121%
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.835.8 m——-26.6%−7.9%+5% / +248%
CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.101.4 m20.38.4%17.6%+30.7%+2% / +52%
MINDMind Technology, Inc33.6 m—-6.8%-6.8%−12.6%−61% / −29%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NOC from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Bull
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Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
312.20
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
551.90
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
831.26
Total return 61% · Per year 61%
3 years
303.93
Total return -38% · Per year -15%
604.47
Total return 21% · Per year 7%
999.51
Total return 98% · Per year 26%
5 years
295.89
Total return -37% · Per year -9%
662.04
Total return 37% · Per year 6%
1,201.82
Total return 143% · Per year 19%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 151.12
  • Net margin± 105.78
  • Annual revenue growth± 86.70
  • Annual dilution± 8.89

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Northrop Grumman is a global aerospace and defense company organized into four sectors: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. The U.S. government accounted for 84 percent of sales in 2025 1, and backlog reached $110 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2026 3. Third quarter 2026 sales rose 7 percent to $11.1 billion 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Broad portfolio across space, military aircraft, missile defense and mission systems, with a backlog that reached a record level in recent results 13.
  • Investment in advanced technologies and a workforce with security clearances supports the ability to win complex contracts 1.

Weaknesses

  • Very heavy dependence on the U.S. government as a single customer, which exposes the company to budget and strategy changes 1.
  • Margins in some sectors declined in the third quarter of 2026, reflecting a shift toward cost-type contract content and lower FAS/CAS adjustments 3.

Opportunities

  • Additional defense funding and modernization could open new orders, especially in missiles and missile defense 1.
  • Allied demand in Europe, the Middle East and the Western Pacific could raise international sales 2.

Threats

  • Government shutdowns and continuing resolutions could delay contracts and payments 1.
  • Intense competition and new entrants could reduce the company's success in winning new programs 1.
  • Trade tariffs and shortages of critical materials such as microelectronics could raise costs and delay deliveries 12.

Risks

  • Dependence on the U.S. governmenthigh

    Most revenue comes from one customer, and shifts in its priorities or budgets can directly affect programs.

  • Funding delaysmedium

    Annual funding is uncertain, and shutdowns or continuing resolutions can postpone new programs and payments.

  • Cost and supply chain pressuremedium

    Inflation, tariffs and shortages of critical materials can raise costs and delay contracts.

  • Regulatory and policy changesmedium

    Executive orders and acquisition reforms can change contract terms and require additional investment.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • A record backlog and steady demand from the government and allies could support sales growth over several years if funding holds.
  • Margins could recover if mature programs perform well, and cash flow could strengthen if payments stay steady.

What would break the thesis

  • If defense budgets become more restrictive or shutdowns recur, new orders could be delayed.
  • Losses on fixed-price contracts could return if cost estimates on new programs prove too optimistic.
  • Competition and tariffs could compress margins, especially if rivals win major contracts.

What to watch

  • Development of backlog and new awardsQ4 2026
  • Status of defense funding and the FY 2026 budget2026
  • Margin trends in Aeronautics and Defense SystemsQ1 2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Customer concentration is high: the U.S. government generated 84 percent of 2025 sales, and most work is long-term contracts with it 1. Contracts follow FAR and CAS rules, with costs audited by DCAA 1. Revenue is recognized as control transfers to the customer, mostly over time on a cost-to-cost basis 1.

Market context

Defense demand is shaped by a tense security environment, with conflicts in Ukraine and Iran and threats in the Middle East and Western Pacific 2. Allied demand for defense products has grown, but U.S. budgets remain uncertain and Congress continues to debate funding 12.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act allocated about 150 billion USD for defense, with funds available for obligation until September 30, 2029 1. This funding could support modernization, missile defense and production, though its effect depends on budget decisions and possible government shutdowns 12.

Trends

  • Higher defense budgetstailwind

    Additional defense funding could increase demand for the company's programs, especially in missiles and strategic deterrence, if the funds are actually allocated 12.

  • Regional conflictstailwind

    Tensions in Ukraine, Iran and the Western Pacific have raised allied demand for defense products, which could support long-term backlog 2.

  • Budget uncertainty and shutdownsheadwind

    Annual funding is subject to delays and shutdowns that can postpone new contracts and payments; a prolonged continuing resolution could affect new starts 1.

  • Tariffs and cost pressuremixed

    Tariffs and shortages of materials such as microelectronics and rare earths can raise costs on fixed-price contracts that may not be fully recovered from customers 12.

Competitive position

The company competes with The Boeing Company, General Dynamics, L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed Martin and RTX, and newer entrants and startups are increasingly present 1. Competition is intense, shown by the number of bids and protests of government awards 1.

Rivals can also be subcontractors or customers on other contracts, which makes the relationships more complex 1. Long-term standing depends on winning new programs and sustaining performance on existing ones 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Northrop Grumman Corporation · 27 Jan 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / Northrop Grumman Corporation · 20 Oct 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Northrop Grumman Corporation · 20 Oct 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.