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olivLaw · US equity research

Leonardo DRS, Inc. DRS

Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys · SIC 3812 · Vertical: Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812)

35.52USD−8.59% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Leonardo DRS supplies defense technology to U.S. national security customers and allied forces, mainly advanced sensors, network computing, force protection and naval electric propulsion. Revenue rose 10% in the second quarter of 2026 to $913 million, and the company raised its 2026 guidance, which makes the U.S. defense budget a central factor to follow.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) stock was 35.52 USD (−8.59% on the day), with market capitalisation 9.5 bn USD, P/E 26.1 on diluted EPS of 1.36 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.01%, beta 1.02, 52-week range 32.55–49.69 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.1 bn USD (+11.0% YoY), net income of 115.0 m USD (+59.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.43 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
9.5 bn USD
shares as of 28 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.1
Diluted EPS TTM 1.36 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.83%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.01%
DPS 12m 0.36
Beta (2y)
1.02
Volatility (1y) 41%
52-week range
32.5549.69

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
46.5
neutral
Bollinger (20, 2)
32.93 – 38.72
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.45 · band width 16.2%
SMA 50 / 200
36.57 / 42.09
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.09 / -0.24
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−3.0%−1.1%−1.9 pp—
3 months−20.4%−0.5%−19.9 pp—
6 months−15.0%+4.4%−19.4 pp—
Year to date+4.2%+12.3%−8.1 pp—
1 year−1.7%+13.5%−15.3 pp−2.2%
3 years+77.2%+76.4%+0.8 pp+54.2%
5 years+236.4%+63.7%+172.7 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−31.7%
11 Jun 2026 → 20 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−52.8%
25 Mar 2022 → 06 Jul 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+27.5%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.1 bn USD
+11.0% YoY
Net income
115.0 m USD
+59.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.43
+65.4% YoY
net / operating
10.8% / 10.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue981.0 m799.0 m829.0 m960.0 m1.1 bn846.0 m913.0 m1.1 bn
Cost of revenue746.0 m618.0 m632.0 m738.0 m791.0 m634.0 m676.0 m803.0 m
Gross profit235.0 m181.0 m197.0 m222.0 m269.0 m212.0 m237.0 m263.0 m
Research & development28.0 m28.0 m30.0 m36.0 m35.0 m31.0 m36.0 m37.0 m
Operating income120.0 m59.0 m70.0 m93.0 m126.0 m77.0 m102.0 m116.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation23.0 m23.0 m23.0 m ≈23.0 m ≈24.0 m24.0 m26.0 m ≈27.0 m ≈
Interest expense4.0 m1.0 m——————
Pre-tax income111.0 m58.0 m67.0 m87.0 m124.0 m77.0 m100.0 m116.0 m
Income tax22.0 m8.0 m13.0 m15.0 m22.0 m15.0 m14.0 m1.0 m
Net income89.0 m50.0 m54.0 m72.0 m102.0 m62.0 m86.0 m115.0 m
Diluted EPS0.33 ≈0.190.200.260.38 ≈0.230.320.43
Operating cash flow443.0 m-138.0 m-28.0 m ≈107.0 m ≈425.0 m-66.0 m35.0 m ≈96.0 m ≈
Capex29.0 m32.0 m28.0 m ≈30.0 m ≈49.0 m30.0 m29.0 m ≈38.0 m ≈
Share repurchases03.0 m11.0 m ≈10.0 m ≈11.0 m4.0 m12.0 m ≈12.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 25 percentile of its own 16-quarter history (min 6.7, median 34.5, max 49.9; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.7 bn2.8 bn2.9 bn2.7 bn2.8 bn3.2 bn3.6 bn
Revenue YoYunavailable+2.4%+3.6%−6.5%+4.9%+14.4%+12.8%
Net income75.0 m85.0 m154.0 m405.0 m168.0 m213.0 m278.0 m
Net income YoYunavailable+13.3%+81.2%+163.0%−58.5%+26.8%+30.5%
Diluted EPS0.520.400.731.880.640.801.03
Diluted EPS YoYunavailable−23.1%+82.5%+157.5%−66.0%+25.0%+28.7%
net %2.8%3.1%5.3%15.0%5.9%6.6%7.6%
Free cash flow102.0 m69.0 m118.0 m-32.0 m145.0 m186.0 m227.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
647.0 m USD
Financial debt
374.0 m USD
Net debt
-273.0 m USD
Equity
2.7 bn USD
Total assets
4.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.14x
Current ratio
1.89x
ROE
10.5%
ROA
6.4%
FCF margin
6.2%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
2.8 bn
2024
3.2 bn
2025
3.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.5 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
648.0 m
2024
736.0 m
2025
869.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
82.0 m
2024
92.0 m
2025
129.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
231.0 m
2024
293.0 m
2025
348.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
85.0 m
2024
91.0 m
2025
93.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
316.0 m ≈
2024
384.0 m ≈
2025
441.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
36.0 m
2024
21.0 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2025verified

Pre-tax income
2023
192.0 m
2024
264.0 m
2025
336.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
24.0 m
2024
51.0 m
2025
58.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
168.0 m
2024
213.0 m
2025
278.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
0.64
2024
0.80
2025
1.03

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
264.2 m
2024
267.7 m
2025
268.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
—
2024
—
2025
0.36

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
467.0 m
2024
598.0 m
2025
647.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
151.0 m
2024
253.0 m
2025
334.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
329.0 m
2024
358.0 m
2025
352.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.9 bn
2024
2.2 bn
2025
2.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
151.0 m
2024
132.0 m
2025
112.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
3.9 bn
2024
4.2 bn
2025
4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
398.0 m
2024
426.0 m
2025
351.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
57.0 m
2024
25.0 m
2025
26.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
407.0 m
2024
366.0 m
2025
348.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
2.3 bn †
2024
2.6 bn †
2025
2.7 bn †

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
205.0 m
2024
271.0 m
2025
366.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
60.0 m
2024
85.0 m
2025
139.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
145.0 m ≈
2024
186.0 m ≈
2025
227.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-59.0 m
2024
-84.0 m
2025
-154.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
15.0 m
2024
-56.0 m
2025
-163.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
0
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 03 Mar 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
0
2024
0
2025
35.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
18.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
30.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-11.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
26.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
28.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-18.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
20.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
22.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
25.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
13.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
10.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
8.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
13.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
8.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
14.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
13.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
26.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-284.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
490.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
146.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
344.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
94.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
93.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
32 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days inventory outstanding
49 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
38 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion cycle
43 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
9.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
9.2 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
25.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
3.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
21.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
27.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
FCF yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 55 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

35.52 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 9.5 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
9.5 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
26.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
3.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
13.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
12.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
1.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 28 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 29 Oct 2026
verified 987derived 84

Score by group

  • Balance sheet97
  • Valuation27
  • Quality84
  • Growth44
  • Returns6

Estimated value range

Low
25.18
USD per share
Mid
28.48
USD per share
High
32.94
USD per share
Price: 35.52 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -19.8% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -24.7% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 4.73 – 37.74 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA25.18 – 32.94 (Mid 28.48)
    3 companies used · median multiple 14.0x · quartiles 12.3x – 16.3x
    LHX, NOC, TDY
  • Peers: P/E27.65 – 37.74 (Mid 32.92)
    5 companies used · median multiple 24.2x · quartiles 20.3x – 27.8x
    CODA, GRMN, LHX, NOC, TDY
  • Dividend discount (DDM)4.73 – 6.36 (Mid 5.43)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 55/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality14.8%99 (on a fixed band)12%
Net margin · Quality9.4%50 (vs peers)7%
FCF conversion · Quality94.2%92 (on a fixed band)7%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth10.6%89 (on a fixed band)9%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-18.2%0 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet-0.5x100 (on a fixed band)12%
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.9x90 (on a fixed band)5%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation26.1x40 (vs peers)12%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation17.6x0 (on a fixed band)12%
FCF yield · Valuation3.6%45 (on a fixed band)9%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.4%6 (on a fixed band)7%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet97/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth44/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality84/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial6/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation27/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.6 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 12.8%; net margin 9.4%; ROE 13.2%; net debt/EBITDA -0.5x.

The estimated value range is 25.18–32.94 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 28.48 USD, the price of 35.52 USD leaves a potential of -19.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -24.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 55/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 14.8%
  • FCF conversion: 94.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 10.6%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: -0.5x
  • Current ratio: 1.9x

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -18.2%
  • EV/EBITDA: 17.6x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.4%
  • The price is above the estimated value range

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
26.1x
vertical median 24.2x
above median (+7.9%)
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
vertical median 14.0x
above median (+25.7%)
P/S
2.4x
vertical median 2.6x
below median (−7.3%)
P/B
3.3x
vertical median 2.6x
above median (+25.4%)
ROE
13.2%
vertical median 9.5%
above median (+39.3%)
Net margin
9.4%
vertical median 7.8%
above median (+20.9%)
EBIT margin
10.8%
vertical median 10.6%
at median
Revenue YoY
12.8%
vertical median 2.2%
above median (+470.3%)
Net debt/EBITDA
-0.5x
vertical median 1.6x
below median (−134.1%)
Dividend yield
1.0%
vertical median 1.8%
below median (−44.3%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp74.6 bn16.626.1%10.4%+2.2%−8% / +11%
GRMNGarmin Ltd55.7 bn27.822.4%25.6%+15.1%+48% / +137%
LHXL3harris Technologies, Inc.48.4 bn24.210.3%5.2%unavailable−7% / +36%
TDYTeledyne Technologies Inc29.1 bn28.99.5%15.8%+7.9%+27% / +57%
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.9.5 bn26.113.2%9.4%+12.8%−2% / +77%
NNNextNav Inc.1.5 bn—-77.9%-2,812.5%−19.3%−38% / +121%
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.835.8 m——-26.6%−7.9%+5% / +248%
CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.101.4 m20.38.4%17.6%+30.7%+2% / +52%
MINDMind Technology, Inc33.6 m—-6.8%-6.8%−12.6%−61% / −29%

1- and 3-year price returns: for DRS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
22.45
Total return -36% · Per year -36%
39.57
Total return 13% · Per year 13%
59.46
Total return 69% · Per year 69%
3 years
24.56
Total return -28% · Per year -10%
48.45
Total return 40% · Per year 12%
79.52
Total return 129% · Per year 32%
5 years
26.87
Total return -20% · Per year -4%
59.31
Total return 74% · Per year 12%
106.35
Total return 209% · Per year 25%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 12.11
  • Net margin± 8.48
  • Annual revenue growth± 6.57
  • Annual dilution± 0.71

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

In brief

Leonardo DRS supplies defense technology to U.S. national security customers and allied forces, mainly advanced sensors, network computing, force protection and naval electric propulsion. Revenue rose 10% in the second quarter of 2026 to $913 million 3, and the company raised its 2026 guidance, which makes the U.S. defense budget a central factor to follow.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Durable positions on priority platforms, shown by production programs and repeat orders, plus a diversified portfolio in sensing, computing and propulsion 1.
  • Record funded backlog and growing quarterly results show solid program execution 3.
  • Rising internal research and development spending supports innovation in sensors and naval power 1.

Weaknesses

  • Heavy dependence on one customer, the U.S. government, makes revenue sensitive to budget changes 1.
  • Many contracts are fixed-price, so unforeseen costs can reduce profitability 1.
  • Cash flows are highly variable and can fluctuate sharply from period to period 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand for naval electrification and tactical sensing and command systems could support growth in existing segments 1.
  • The announced acquisition of a multi-domain data and mission software company could extend the mission portfolio 3.
  • Allied demand for deterrence and defense capabilities outside the U.S. could add orders 2.

Threats

  • Government shutdowns and budget reprioritization could delay or reduce existing programs 1.
  • Larger competitors with greater research budgets could narrow the company's position on some platforms 1.
  • Supply chain disruptions, including raw material shortages, can cause delays and added costs 1.

Risks

  • Dependence on U.S. defense spendinghigh

    Most revenue depends on U.S. government spending, so shifts in priorities can significantly affect results 1.

  • Fixed-price contract riskmedium

    If costs exceed estimates or inflation rises, the company bears the losses, which could reduce margins 1.

  • Supply chainmedium

    Some components have a single source, and disruptions could delay deliveries and raise costs 1.

  • Cybersecuritymedium

    A breach of the company's or its partners' IT systems could affect operations and classified contracts 1.

  • Acquisition integrationlow

    Acquisitions such as the announced software deal can bring operating difficulties and dilution 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If revenue and margin growth from the first half of the year holds, the raised 2026 guidance could be reached 3.
  • Record funded backlog gives visibility on future revenue across several programs 3.
  • Positions on priority naval platforms and demand for electrification could support long-term growth in the IMS segment 1.

What would break the thesis

  • If the defense budget stagnates or funding is delayed, orders and revenue could be postponed 1.
  • Dependence on a single customer means any policy change could have a major effect on the company 1.
  • Margin gains of recent quarters may be harder to sustain if costs or competitive pressure rise 3.

What to watch

  • Funded backlog and bookings development after the announced acquisitionQ3 2026
  • Whether the raised Adjusted EBITDA guidance holds after the Raft integrationQ4 2026
  • Defense budget allocation for the next fiscal year and the appropriations timetable2027
  • Margin trends on fixed-price contracts and supply cost developmentsnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).

The business

The company runs two technology segments: Advanced Sensing and Computing (ASC), which develops sensors, edge computing and software for situational awareness, and Integrated Mission Systems (IMS), which delivers naval propulsion, power conversion and force protection systems 1. The U.S. government accounted for 80% of sales in 2025 1, and the company operates mainly as a prime contractor or as a system supplier to larger platform providers.

Segments

Advanced Sensing and Computing (ASC)

The ASC segment covers sensors such as active electronically scanned array tactical radars, EO/IR systems, electronic warfare and network computing for command and control; in the second quarter of 2026 it was led by tactical radar and infrared sensing programs 3. The company increasingly combines sensing, computing and software for applications such as counter-UAS 1.

Integrated Mission Systems (IMS)

The IMS segment delivers electric propulsion systems for the U.S. Navy, including for the Columbia Class submarine, along with force protection and transport systems 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the segment's operating margin reached 15.9%, with bookings led by electric power and propulsion 3.

Market context

The main market is U.S. defense: the Department of War budget, approved for FY2026 above the presidential request, is the largest defense budget in the world 1. Demand for sensing, electronic warfare and counter-drone capabilities is supported by global tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific 2. The company's revenue depends directly on spending levels and the timing of program funding.

Trends

  • Stable U.S. defense budgettailwind

    Legislation in 2026 added funding for defense, which could support the company's programs over the medium term 1.

  • Demand for counter-UAStailwind

    Recent conflicts have increased demand for counter-unmanned aircraft systems, an area where the company holds program positions 2.

  • Budget uncertainty and shutdownsheadwind

    Government shutdowns and delays in appropriations can postpone orders and payments to contractors 1.

  • Pressure on fixed-price contractsmixed

    Fixed-price contracts shift the risk of extra costs and inflation to the company, which could hurt margins if costs exceed estimates 1.

Competitive position

The company competes with divisions of large defense primes, with mid-tier and smaller defense companies, and with non-traditional firms 1. Customers mainly weigh product performance, cost, delivery schedule, embedded positions and innovation 1.

  • Divisions of large defense primes

    Larger competitors with more resources for research and development, active on the same naval and ground platforms 1.

  • Mid-tier and smaller defense companies

    Compete directly for subsystem and component contracts, especially in sensing and computing 1.

  • Non-traditional companies

    New entrants in software, data and defense that can compete for the same technology programs 1.

  • Industry partners and suppliers

    The company sometimes teams with other participants or supplies them, so these relationships can also be competitive 1.

News & filings

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Leonardo DRS, Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Leonardo DRS, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Leonardo DRS, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.