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olivLaw · US equity research

Intuitive Machines, Inc. LUNR

Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys · SIC 3812 · Vertical: Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812)

9.93USD−5.25% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Intuitive Machines builds, connects and operates space infrastructure, from spacecraft and satellites to communication networks and lunar and orbital services. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported record revenue of 206 million USD and a backlog of 1.8 billion USD, which may show a shift from one-off missions toward recurring services.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) stock was 9.93 USD (−5.25% on the day), with market capitalisation 835.8 m USD, beta 3.09, 52-week range 8.05–45.70 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 206.2 m USD (+309.8% YoY), net income of -46.4 m USD, diluted EPS -0.29 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
835.8 m USD
shares as of 29 Mar 2023
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -0.93 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-9.41%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
3.09
Volatility (1y) 110%
52-week range
8.0545.70

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
35.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
9.17 – 13.30
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.18 · band width 36.7%
SMA 50 / 200
13.44 / 19.61
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.96 / -0.98
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−30.5%−1.1%−29.4 pp—
3 months−29.0%−0.5%−28.6 pp—
6 months−62.3%+4.4%−66.7 pp—
Year to date−38.8%+12.3%−51.1 pp—
1 year−4.5%+13.5%−18.1 pp−2.2%
3 years+191.2%+76.4%+114.8 pp+54.2%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−78.4%
28 May 2026 → 02 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−97.4%
22 Feb 2023 → 04 Jan 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
206.2 m USD
+309.8% YoY
Net income
-46.4 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.29
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-22.5% / -22.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue58.5 m54.7 m62.5 m50.3 m52.4 m44.8 m186.7 m206.2 m
Research & development——911.0 k461.0 k——5.6 m7.7 m
Operating income-13.7 m-13.4 m-10.1 m-28.6 m-15.4 m-33.1 m-39.2 m-47.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation482.0 k ≈540.0 k623.0 k752.0 k815.0 k ≈1.4 m13.0 m14.9 m
Interest expense13.0 k5.0 k26.0 k72.0 k1.3 m2.7 m4.9 m4.5 m
Pre-tax income-80.4 m-165.1 m975.0 k-38.2 m-10.0 m-55.7 m-52.5 m-62.8 m
Income tax50.0 k-13.0 k005.0 k4.0 m2.0 k8.0 k
Net income-55.4 m-149.2 m-11.4 m-25.2 m-6.8 m-39.9 m-37.4 m-46.4 m
Diluted EPS-0.83-1.72 ≈-0.11-0.22-0.06-0.33 ≈-0.25-0.29
Operating cash flow-17.9 m ≈-2.0 m19.4 m-19.3 m ≈-7.2 m ≈-7.3 m-54.8 m-57.1 m ≈
Capex1.4 m ≈4.9 m6.1 m8.1 m ≈11.8 m ≈15.6 m9.9 m24.1 m ≈
Dividends paid0 ≈0——————
Share repurchases0 ≈020.7 m0 ≈0 ≈000 ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year2022202320242025
Revenue85.9 m79.6 m228.0 m210.1 m
Revenue YoYunavailable−7.4%+186.6%−7.9%
Net income-190.4 k61.8 m-283.4 m-83.3 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailable−558.9%unavailable
Diluted EPSunavailable2.42-4.63-0.73
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailable−291.3%unavailable
net %-0.2%77.6%-124.3%-39.7%
Free cash flow-15.6 m-75.2 m-67.7 m-56.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
582.6 m USD
Financial debt
335.3 m USD
Net debt
-247.3 m USD
Equity
-754.4 m USD
Total assets
757.2 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
4.96x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-15.0%
FCF margin
-26.6%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
79.6 m
2024
228.0 m
2025
210.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
100.5 m
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2024verified

Gross profit
2023
-20.9 m ≈
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2025derived

Operating income
2023
-61.1 m
2024
-57.4 m
2025
-87.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.4 m
2024
1.9 m
2025
3.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-59.7 m ≈
2024
-55.5 m ≈
2025
-83.6 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
92.0 k
2025
4.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
10.2 m
2024
-346.9 m
2025
-102.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
40.0 k
2024
37.0 k
2025
4.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
61.8 m
2024
-283.4 m
2025
-83.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.42
2024
-4.63
2025
-0.73

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
25.6 m
2024
61.4 m
2025
115.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
4.5 m
2024
207.6 m
2025
582.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
16.9 m
2024
44.8 m
2025
12.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Inventories
2023
—
2024
—
2025
0

SEC (XBRL)· 15 May 2026verified

Current assets
2023
31.6 m
2024
293.2 m
2025
618.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
18.3 m
2024
23.4 m
2025
68.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
—
2024
0
2025
18.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
0
2025
13.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
85.9 m
2024
355.4 m
2025
757.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
8.0 m
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2025verified

Long-term debt
2023
0
2024
0
2025
335.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
81.5 m
2024
98.8 m
2025
124.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
137.5 m
2024
351.5 m
2025
553.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-261.4 m
2024
-1.0 bn
2025
-754.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-45.3 m
2024
-57.6 m
2025
-14.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
29.9 m
2024
10.1 m
2025
41.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-75.2 m ≈
2024
-67.7 m ≈
2025
-56.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-29.9 m
2024
-10.1 m
2025
-56.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
53.9 m
2024
272.8 m
2025
446.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
8.0 m
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 25 Mar 2025verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
0
2025
20.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
34.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-21.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-27.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-26.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-38.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-11.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
-9.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-31.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
-10.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
1.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-126.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
61.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-187.8 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
835.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
804.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-9.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
1.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
1.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-22.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

9.93 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 835.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
835.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-26.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
-7.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
input data missing

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 29 Mar 2023
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 566derived 49

Score by group

40% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-26.6%13 (vs peers)16%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth34.7%100 (on a fixed band)21%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-10.0x0 (on a fixed band)16%
Current ratio · Balance sheet1.7x71 (on a fixed band)11%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-22.5%0 (on a fixed band)21%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.0%0 (on a fixed band)16%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet29/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial13/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

INTUITIVE MACHINES, INC. (LUNR). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 210.1 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -7.9%; net margin -26.6%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 39.6% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 34.7%
  • Current ratio: 1.7x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -26.6%
  • Interest coverage: -10.0x
  • FCF yield: -22.5%
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, Aeronautical Sys (SIC 3812) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 8 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 25.2x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 15.8x
P/S
1.7x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−43.0%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.9x
ROE
—
vertical median 9.9%
Net margin
-26.6%
vertical median 9.9%
below median (−369.5%)
EBIT margin
-27.5%
vertical median 10.7%
below median (−356.4%)
Revenue YoY
-7.9%
vertical median 7.9%
below median (−200.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 1.2x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median 1.4%

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
NOCNorthrop Grumman Corp74.6 bn16.626.1%10.4%+2.2%−8% / +11%
GRMNGarmin Ltd55.7 bn27.822.4%25.6%+15.1%+48% / +137%
LHXL3harris Technologies, Inc.48.4 bn24.210.3%5.2%unavailable−7% / +36%
TDYTeledyne Technologies Inc29.1 bn28.99.5%15.8%+7.9%+27% / +57%
DRSLeonardo DRS, Inc.9.5 bn26.113.2%9.4%+12.8%+4% / +93%
NNNextNav Inc.1.5 bn—-77.9%-2,812.5%−19.3%−38% / +121%
LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.835.8 m——-26.6%−7.9%−5% / +191%
CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.101.4 m20.38.4%17.6%+30.7%+2% / +52%
MINDMind Technology, Inc33.6 m—-6.8%-6.8%−12.6%−61% / −29%

1- and 3-year price returns: for LUNR from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Intuitive Machines builds, connects and operates space infrastructure, from spacecraft and satellites to communication networks and lunar and orbital services. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported record revenue of 206 million USD and a backlog of 1.8 billion USD, which may show a shift from one-off missions toward recurring services.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has strong demand visible in its backlog, record quarterly revenue and a vertically integrated structure covering building, connecting and operating space assets 123.
    • The Lanteris acquisition adds satellite manufacturing capacity and experience on well-tested GEO platforms, which could support new contracts 1.
    • Its position in defense space programs, including missile-tracking contracts and AMDT3, offers revenue tied to public policy priorities 23.

    Weaknesses

    • Customer concentration is very high, with one customer generating most revenue in 2025 1. A problem with that customer would directly affect results.
    • The company has a history of operating losses and has relied on outside capital, so its investment plans could require new funding 1.
    • Integrating several acquisitions in one year adds operational complexity and the risk of delivery delays 1.

    Opportunities

    • If NASA network and data relay services expand, the company could turn Goonhilly and KinetX assets into recurring revenue 12.
    • Commercial GEO satellite contracts and defense programs could raise backlog if new customers confirm orders 23.
    • Lunar infrastructure programs, including data relay constellations, could open a new market if missions succeed 1.

    Threats

    • Government shutdowns and budget shifts can delay federal contracts and payments 12.
    • Insolvency proceedings at customers in the EchoStar group could reduce collections and affect active contracts 2.
    • Large competitors and new entrants in the space industry could push down prices and reduce the company's market share 1.

    Risks

    • Customer concentrationhigh

      One customer accounted for most revenue in 2025, and a delay or non-payment could affect results 1.

    • EchoStar customer insolvencyhigh

      Bankruptcy proceedings at EchoStar entities affect Lanteris collections and contracts, and the final outcome is still uncertain 2.

    • Acquisition integrationmedium

      Integrating Lanteris, KinetX and the Goonhilly operations could distract management and create unforeseen costs 12.

    • Funding and lossesmedium

      The company has a history of operating losses and could need additional capital if investment plans expand 1.

    • Government shutdownslow

      Federal funding interruptions can delay new contracts and payments for work already performed 12.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • The record backlog and rising quarterly revenue suggest that demand for integrated space services could continue if execution stays reliable 23.
    • Expansion into defense space and network services could diversify revenue sources and reduce reliance on one type of mission 23.
    • If the recurring service model works, margins could improve over time, as management argues 13.

    What would break the thesis

    • Customer concentration and exposure to federal budgets make revenue vulnerable to political decisions the company does not control 1.
    • Insolvency proceedings in the EchoStar group could reduce collections and could force provisions if recoveries fall short of estimates 2.
    • A history of losses and the need for outside funding could limit flexibility if execution is delayed 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against 2026 revenue guidance of 900 million to 1 billion USDnext 10-K
    • Development of backlog and new defense contracts, including AMDT3Q3 2026
    • Status of EchoStar insolvency proceedings and Lanteris collectionsQ3 2026
    • Integration of Goonhilly and COMSAT and their contribution to revenue and network services2027

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Founded in 2013, the company organizes its work into three integrated capabilities: Build (designing and delivering spacecraft, landers and satellites), Connect (integrating assets into communication, navigation and data relay networks) and Operate (mission operations and infrastructure services). According to the annual report 1, the company aims to extend its activity from single missions to infrastructure operated over long periods.

    The Lanteris acquisition, completed on January 13, 2026, added commercial GEO satellite and defense satellite manufacturing, and the KinetX acquisition strengthened deep-space navigation 1. The company also completed the acquisition of the Goonhilly UK and US operations on August 3, 2026 2.

    Main customers are US civil and defense agencies, especially NASA, the Space Development Agency and the Missile Defense Agency, plus commercial customers in GEO and lunar delivery 1. Customer concentration is high, and the 2025 concentration on one major customer is treated as a major risk in the annual report 1.

    Segments

    Build (spacecraft and satellites)

    The Build segment includes lunar landers, defense satellites and GEO platforms and is the main source of near-term revenue according to the annual report 1. Contracts for missile-tracking satellites for the Space Development Agency, delivered through Lanteris, belong to this segment 1.

    Connect (networks and communications)

    The Connect segment covers NASA ground network and data relay services and the acquisitions of ground stations, including Goonhilly 12. The company aims to turn these assets into recurring network service revenue.

    Operate (operations and services)

    The Operate segment includes mission operations, navigation and timing services and hosted payload data services 1. The company says this segment could bring longer contracts and higher margins, but profitability depends on mission execution 1.

    Market context

    The company describes an addressable market including ground stations, satellites in LEO, GEO and cislunar space, lunar landers and robotic surface systems, with growing US government interest in a persistent presence in space 1. Demand for commercial GEO satellites is cyclical, however, and orders depend on operators deferring contracts 1.

    Defense and US civil customers are the main growth drivers but also the most exposed to federal budgets and government shutdowns 12. The quarterly report mentions a contract of over 600 million USD for three commercial GEO satellites 2.

    Trends

    • Shift from missions to infrastructuretailwind

      The company argues that moving from single missions to operated infrastructure could bring recurring revenue and better margins 1. The effect depends on customers adopting services, which is not yet proven at scale.

    • Defense space demandtailwind

      Growth in defense contracts, including AMDT3 and missile-tracking programs, has raised the share of national security revenue 23. If defense budgets change, new orders could be delayed.

    • Federal budget uncertaintyheadwind

      Government shutdowns and shifts in priorities can delay contracts and federal payments 12. The company describes these risks as outside its control.

    • Exposure to satellite industry customersmixed

      Insolvency proceedings at some EchoStar entities could affect Lanteris collections and active contracts, although the company has not so far recorded an additional provision 2. The final effect depends on the outcome of the proceedings.

    Competitive position

    Competitors include incumbents such as Lockheed Martin and Blue Origin, plus newer players such as Astrobotic and Firefly Aerospace in lunar mission contests 1. In GEO satellite and defense work, Lanteris competes with Airbus, Northrop Grumman, Rocket Lab and others 1.

    In ground station and data relay services, competitors named in the annual report are Kongsberg Satellite Services, Swedish Space Corporation and Telespazio 1. The company's position depends on proving reliable lunar operations and winning new contracts.

    • Lockheed MartinLMT

      Incumbent in complex lunar missions and defense space programs, named as a competitor in the annual report 1.

    • Blue Origin

      Competitor in crewed lunar missions and the civil segment, named in the annual report 1.

    • Astrobotic

      Competitor on CLPS contracts, the same category of lunar deliveries 1.

    • Airbus

      Competitor for commercial GEO satellite construction, named for Lanteris 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 22 Oct 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Intuitive Machines, Inc. · 19 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Intuitive Machines, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Intuitive Machines, Inc. · 13 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.