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olivLaw · US equity research

Firefly Aerospace Inc. FLY

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts · SIC 3760 · Vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

17.16USD+0.85% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Firefly Aerospace is a US space and defense technology company that offers orbital launches with its Alpha and Eclipse rockets and spacecraft with Blue Ghost and Elytra, plus defense software through the SciTec acquisition. It matters now because it reported record quarterly revenue in the second quarter of 2026, and its guidance for full-year 2026 points to revenue of 420 to 450 million dollars.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) stock was 17.16 USD (+0.85% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.9 bn USD, beta 3.36, 52-week range 16.29–58.81 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 117.7 m USD (+656.9% YoY), net income of -92.3 m USD, diluted EPS -0.57 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.9 bn USD
shares as of 06 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -2.95 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-17.16%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
3.36
Volatility (1y) 107%
52-week range
16.2958.81

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
40.5
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
15.46 – 20.80
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.32 · band width 29.4%
SMA 50 / 200
20.48 / 26.98
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.96 / -0.97
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−24.0%−1.1%−22.9 pp—
3 months−24.9%−0.5%−24.4 pp—
6 months−50.3%+4.4%−54.7 pp—
Year to date−23.3%+12.3%−35.6 pp—
1 year−24.9%+13.5%−38.4 pp+13.5%
3 yearsunavailable+76.4%unavailable+88.8%
5 yearsunavailable+63.7%unavailable—
Max drawdown (1y)
−72.3%
26 May 2026 → 02 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−73.0%
07 Aug 2025 → 02 Nov 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
unavailable
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
117.7 m USD
+656.9% YoY
Net income
-92.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.57
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-78.4% / -80.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue22.4 m9.0 m55.9 m15.5 m30.8 m57.7 m80.9 m117.7 m
Cost of revenue14.6 m29.2 m53.6 m11.6 m22.3 m41.7 m63.4 m93.8 m
Gross profit7.8 m-20.2 m2.2 m4.0 m8.5 m16.0 m17.5 m23.9 m
Research & development29.9 m42.5 m48.0 m45.8 m48.8 m57.6 m67.5 m71.5 m
SG&A10.3 m14.7 m12.8 m12.6 m21.9 m44.0 m45.6 m47.5 m
Operating income-34.2 m-77.2 m-58.5 m-54.4 m-62.2 m-85.6 m-95.7 m-95.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation3.5 m ≈6.0 m4.0 m3.9 m ≈5.6 m ≈9.6 m15.9 m14.0 m ≈
Interest expense6.5 m5.6 m6.2 m7.0 m2.8 m03.6 m1.8 m
Pre-tax income-40.8 m-84.1 m-60.1 m-63.8 m-133.4 m-78.2 m-96.6 m-92.4 m
Income tax00000-37.1 m67.0 k-35.0 k
Net income-40.8 m-84.1 m-60.1 m-63.8 m-133.4 m-41.1 m-96.7 m-92.3 m
Diluted EPS-3.57-6.43 ≈-5.38-5.78-1.50-0.27 ≈-0.61-0.57
Operating cash flow-36.6 m ≈-40.3 m-56.5 m-28.1 m ≈-53.0 m ≈-67.3 m-62.5 m-81.6 m ≈
Capex8.2 m ≈2.7 m2.7 m9.2 m ≈8.9 m ≈12.1 m16.3 m24.7 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year202320242025
Revenue55.2 m60.8 m159.9 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+10.1%+163.0%
Net income-135.5 m-231.1 m-298.3 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-13.05-20.74-4.83
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-245.2%-380.2%-186.6%
Free cash flow-170.7 m-190.3 m-237.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
793.0 m USD
Financial debt
7.1 m USD
Net debt
-785.9 m USD
Equity
1.2 bn USD
Total assets
1.8 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.01x
Current ratio
4.51x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-26.7%
FCF margin
-148.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
55.2 m
2024
60.8 m
2025
159.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
28.6 m
2024
72.2 m
2025
129.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
26.6 m
2024
-11.4 m
2025
30.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
117.9 m
2024
149.5 m
2025
200.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

SG&A
2023
40.6 m
2024
46.8 m
2025
91.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-131.9 m
2024
-209.5 m
2025
-260.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
4.7 m
2024
12.5 m
2025
23.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-127.2 m ≈
2024
-196.9 m ≈
2025
-237.5 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
9.2 m
2024
25.2 m
2025
15.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-135.5 m
2024
-231.1 m
2025
-335.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Income tax
2023
4.0 k
2024
0
2025
-37.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Net income
2023
-135.5 m
2024
-231.1 m
2025
-298.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-13.05
2024
-20.74
2025
-4.83

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
12.0 m
2024
12.8 m
2025
69.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
81.9 m
2024
123.4 m
2025
793.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
1.0 m
2025
46.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
—
2024
180.7 m
2025
963.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
135.6 m
2025
163.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
17.1 m
2024
17.1 m
2025
450.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
0
2025
165.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
—
2024
407.3 m
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
37.6 m
2025
35.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
—
2024
6.3 m
2025
7.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
—
2024
113.0 m
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 22 Sept 2025verified

Current liabilities
2023
—
2024
179.4 m
2025
213.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
—
2024
415.4 m
2025
635.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-504.5 m
2024
-767.6 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-93.4 m
2024
-157.7 m
2025
-204.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
77.2 m
2024
32.7 m
2025
32.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-170.7 m ≈
2024
-190.3 m ≈
2025
-237.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-70.0 m
2024
-32.7 m
2025
-401.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
240.7 m
2024
232.8 m
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 20 Mar 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
163.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
22.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-102.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-118.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-126.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-113.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-238.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-34.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
insufficient data
ROCE
-25.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-452.4 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-41.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
2.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
1.6x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-264.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
62.1 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-326.5 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
41 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
75 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
2.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-17.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
10.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
8.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-11.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
2.97
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 4 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

17.16 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-238.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-126.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
163.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

32/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 06 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 11 Aug 2026
verified 345derived 30

Score by group

25% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-126.6%17 (vs peers)25%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-41.2x0 (on a fixed band)25%
Current ratio · Balance sheet2.7x100 (on a fixed band)17%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-11.4%0 (on a fixed band)33%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial17/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 159.9 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 163.0%; net margin -126.6%; ROE -238.4%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 25.0% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Current ratio: 2.7x

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -126.6%
  • Interest coverage: -41.2x
  • FCF yield: -11.4%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
10.0x
vertical median 4.5x
above median (+121.1%)
P/B
2.3x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+19.2%)
ROE
-238.4%
vertical median -13.6%
below median
Net margin
-126.6%
vertical median -39.4%
below median
EBIT margin
-118.0%
vertical median -39.8%
below median
Revenue YoY
163.0%
vertical median 12.9%
above median (+1,167.6%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation137.5 bn21.180.2%8.2%+5.6%+30% / +33%
RKLBRocket Lab Corp31.3 bn—-7.9%-21.5%+38.0%+24% / +1,096%
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.6.8 bn206.81.1%2.0%+18.5%−53% / +89%
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.2.9 bn—-238.4%-126.6%+163.0%−25% / unavailable
RDWRedwire Corporation1.9 bn—-19.2%-57.3%+10.3%+40% / +202%
MNTSMomentus Inc.40.9 m—-68.3%-927.7%−47.5%−85% / −100%
VOYGVoyager Technologies, Inc.——-38.7%-79.0%+15.4%+3% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for FLY from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    Firefly Aerospace is a US space and defense technology company that offers orbital launches with its Alpha and Eclipse rockets and spacecraft with Blue Ghost and Elytra, plus defense software through the SciTec acquisition. It matters now because it reported record quarterly revenue in the second quarter of 2026 3, and its guidance for full-year 2026 points to revenue of 420 to 450 million dollars 3.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company is the only US firm with a liquid orbital rocket in the 1,000-kilogram class and has completed a successful lunar landing 1.
    • A contract portfolio with milestone billing, including collections before launch, gives visibility into future revenue 1.
    • Vertical integration of manufacturing and in-house engine development reduce reliance on outside suppliers 1.

    Weaknesses

    • The company has reported net losses over several consecutive years and has not yet reached stable profitability 1.
    • Concentration on a few large customers and government contracts makes revenue sensitive to budget changes 1.
    • Eclipse development is not complete, and Alpha launch capacity depends on regulatory approvals 1.

    Opportunities

    • Demand for rapid launches and for lunar and defense missions could grow if government programs expand 13.
    • International expansion, with a launch site in Sweden and partnerships with allied nations, could open new markets 1.
    • Recent software and autonomous navigation acquisitions could create data service revenue for space missions 3.

    Threats

    • Launch failures or delays could lead to regulatory suspensions and lost contracts 1.
    • Competition from larger, better-funded firms could reduce market share 1.
    • Changes in government policy and budget priorities could directly affect the company's contracts 12.

    Risks

    • Launch failures or delayshigh

      A failed or delayed launch could lead to losses of vehicles and new investigations by authorities 1.

    • Continuing net losseshigh

      The company expects operating expenses and investment to rise, and profitability is not assured 1.

    • Dependence on government customersmedium

      Changes in government funding could slow contracts and delay payments 12.

    • Integration of acquisitionsmedium

      Integrating SciTec and other acquisitions could create operational and staffing difficulties 12.

    • Dependence on management and stafflow

      The company depends on its current leadership and highly trained employees, whose departure could affect execution 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If Alpha can raise its launch cadence and Eclipse is completed, the company could become a major supplier for defense and lunar missions 13.
    • Rapid revenue growth and new contracts in the second quarter of 2026 suggest real demand for its services 3.
    • Its position as the only US operator of small liquid launchers and successful lunar landings gives it a niche advantage 1.

    What would break the thesis

    • Persistent net losses and rising costs could extend the time before profitability, a real uncertainty 1.
    • Launch anomalies and regulatory delays could reduce customer confidence and the pace of contracts 1.
    • The small and medium launch market is still forming, and competition from large firms could limit growth 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against the 2026 revenue guidance range compared with the reported figuresQ3 2026
    • First launch of the Eclipse rocket from Wallops Island2026
    • Progress of Blue Ghost Mission 2 and other contracted lunar missions2026
    • Trend in net losses and operating expenses in quarterly reportsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Firefly Aerospace operates in space launch and spacecraft for national security, government and commercial customers 1. Its Alpha rocket is the only US orbital rocket in the 1,000-kilogram class to reach orbit successfully, and the Eclipse rocket, developed with Northrop Grumman, is in final development 1. The company was the first private firm to land and operate on the Moon, with Blue Ghost Mission 1 1. In October 2025 it acquired SciTec, which adds AI-enabled defense software 12.

    The business model relies on contracts with milestone billing: before launch, the company had typically collected about 90% of the contract value 1. It reports as a single segment, with launch and spacecraft platforms 1. Core facilities are in central Texas near Austin, launches are conducted from California, and new sites are planned in Virginia and Sweden 1.

    In the second quarter of 2026 the company announced NASA contracts for Blue Ghost missions and acquired Space-ng, which adds autonomous navigation technology 3. Guidance for 2026 includes revenue of 420 to 450 million dollars, but the company still reports net losses 31.

    Segments

    Launch (Alpha and Eclipse)

    Alpha has completed five successful orbital launches and had more than 30 planned launches under contract as of December 31, 2025 1. Eclipse is a reusable rocket in development with Northrop Grumman, with its first launch planned from Wallops Island 12. Alpha is also contracted for the MACH-TB hypersonic test program 1.

    Spacecraft (Blue Ghost and Elytra)

    Blue Ghost landed successfully on the Moon and has several NASA missions under contract 12. Elytra is a maneuverable spacecraft used for space domain awareness and communications relay missions 12.

    Defense software (SciTec)

    SciTec adds AI-enabled software for missile warning, surveillance and autonomous command and control 1. The company also reported new SciTec contracts in the second quarter of 2026 3.

    Market context

    The company states that demand for launches has grown sharply, with the number of satellites launched rising more than fivefold over five years 1. A McKinsey report cited by the company projects the global space economy could reach 1.8 trillion dollars by 2035 1. Demand for small and medium launches is still emerging, and growth in that segment is not assured 1.

    Defense budgets for space are rising, and demand for launch capacity exceeds supply 1. The company says it supports programs such as Golden Dome, but such contracts can be changed or cancelled 12.

    Trends

    • Rising defense spending on spacetailwind

      The proposed Department of War space budget has risen considerably, which could support the company's contracts 1.

    • NASA lunar programstailwind

      CLPS contracts and Moon Base missions could generate recurring revenue if missions launch on schedule 3.

    • Launch delays and anomaliesheadwind

      An April 2025 anomaly required an FAA investigation before further Alpha launches, and similar delays could recur 1.

    • Trade policy and tariffsmixed

      Macroeconomic uncertainty and the implementation of tariffs could affect component costs and the supply chain 12.

    Competitive position

    The company presents itself as the only US firm with a liquid-fuel orbital rocket in the 1,000-kilogram class 1. Competition includes established firms and new entrants in the small and medium launch market, and the company names competition as a risk in its filings 1.

    In spacecraft and defense, the company both competes and cooperates with large contractors, since several of its partners are also potential competitors 1. Its stated advantages are speed, cost and vertical integration 1.

    • Northrop GrummanNOC

      Partner in developing the Eclipse rocket, and a large defense and space contractor that can be both partner and competitor 1.

    • Lockheed MartinLMT

      Customer and partner for Alpha launches under an extended multi-launch agreement, and a major player in space defense 13.

    • L3HarrisLHX

      Collaborator named in the company's space defense programs, and a supplier of comparable systems in the field 1.

    • Other small and medium launch providers

      Companies offering orbital launches for small and medium satellites compete directly for the same government and commercial contracts 1.

    News & filings

    In the press

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Firefly Aerospace Inc. · 20 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Firefly Aerospace Inc. · 11 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Firefly Aerospace Inc. · 11 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.