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olivLaw · US equity research

Redwire Corporation RDW

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts · SIC 3760 · Vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

7.72USD−4.93% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company that builds satellites, space infrastructure and autonomous airborne systems. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 89.6%, and backlog reached 542.1 million USD, pointing to solid demand for its products.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Redwire Corporation (RDW) stock was 7.72 USD (−4.93% on the day), with market capitalisation 1.9 bn USD, beta 3.23, 52-week range 5.06–25.90 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 117.1 m USD (+89.6% YoY), net income of -41.0 m USD, diluted EPS -0.19 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
1.9 bn USD
shares as of 03 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.38 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-17.91%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
3.23
Volatility (1y) 112%
52-week range
5.0625.90

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
35.0
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
7.57 – 9.72
in the lower half of the band · %B 0.07 · band width 24.9%
SMA 50 / 200
9.98 / 11.03
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.58 / -0.57
MACD below signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−26.0%−1.1%−24.9 pp—
3 months−28.0%−0.5%−27.5 pp—
6 months−19.9%+4.4%−24.3 pp—
Year to date+1.6%+12.3%−10.7 pp—
1 year+11.1%+13.5%−2.5 pp−0.2%
3 years+165.3%+76.4%+88.9 pp+60.8%
5 years−39.5%+63.7%−103.2 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−70.2%
28 May 2026 → 04 Nov 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−86.3%
08 Nov 2021 → 28 Dec 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
−9.6%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
117.1 m USD
+89.6% YoY
Net income
-41.0 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.19
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-35.0% / -18.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue68.6 m69.6 m61.4 m61.8 m103.4 m108.8 m97.0 m117.1 m
Cost of revenue56.6 m64.9 m52.4 m80.8 m86.6 m98.3 m71.2 m84.5 m
Gross profit12.0 m4.6 m9.0 m-19.1 m16.8 m10.5 m25.8 m32.5 m
Research & development1.9 m1.4 m813.0 k1.7 m7.7 m9.5 m12.6 m12.5 m
SG&A17.5 m18.4 m18.7 m54.5 m50.3 m47.8 m82.9 m42.1 m
Operating income-12.5 m-19.0 m-14.3 m-91.9 m-41.9 m-81.6 m-69.7 m-22.1 m
Depreciation & amortisation2.9 m ≈3.2 m3.0 m5.1 m12.1 m ≈12.4 m11.3 m11.5 m
Pre-tax income-21.4 m-68.8 m-3.1 m-129.6 m-34.3 m-84.6 m-75.9 m-39.1 m
Income tax-472.0 k-1.7 m-182.0 k-32.6 m6.9 m910.0 k641.0 k1.9 m
Net income-21.0 m-67.2 m-2.9 m-97.0 m-41.2 m-85.5 m-76.5 m-41.0 m
Diluted EPS-0.37-1.01 ≈-0.09-1.41-0.29-0.50 ≈-0.40-0.19
Operating cash flow-17.7 m ≈7.1 m-45.1 m-87.7 m ≈-20.3 m ≈-24.3 m-6.7 m-24.9 m ≈
Capex1.6 m ≈2.3 m1.8 m3.0 m ≈6.5 m ≈2.2 m4.8 m8.5 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20212022202320242025
Revenue137.6 m160.5 m243.8 m304.1 m335.4 m
Revenue YoYunavailable+16.7%+51.9%+24.7%+10.3%
Net income-61.5 m-130.6 m-27.3 m-114.3 m-226.6 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPS-1.36-2.09-0.73-2.35-2.28
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %-44.7%-81.4%-11.2%-37.6%-67.6%
Free cash flow-39.5 m-35.3 m-4.4 m-23.7 m-190.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
94.5 m USD
Financial debt
85.2 m USD
Net debt
-9.3 m USD
Equity
1.1 bn USD
Total assets
1.4 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.08x
Current ratio
1.62x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-26.0%
FCF margin
-56.9%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
243.8 m
2024
304.1 m
2025
335.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
185.8 m
2024
259.6 m
2025
318.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
58.0 m
2024
44.5 m
2025
17.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
5.0 m
2024
6.1 m
2025
19.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

SG&A
2023
68.5 m
2024
71.4 m
2025
171.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-15.5 m
2024
-42.2 m
2025
-229.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
10.7 m
2024
11.7 m
2025
32.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-4.8 m ≈
2024
-30.5 m ≈
2025
-197.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
10.7 m
2024
13.5 m
2025
39.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
-27.8 m
2024
-116.3 m
2025
-251.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
-486.0 k
2024
-2.0 m
2025
-25.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
-27.3 m
2024
-114.3 m
2025
-226.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.73
2024
-2.35
2025
-2.28

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
64.7 m
2024
66.1 m
2025
119.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
30.3 m
2024
33.7 m
2025
94.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
32.4 m
2024
21.9 m
2025
37.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
1.5 m
2024
2.2 m
2025
55.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
109.3 m
2024
125.9 m
2025
252.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2023verified

Goodwill
2023
65.8 m
2024
71.2 m
2025
779.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
63.0 m
2024
61.8 m
2025
336.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
271.3 m
2024
292.6 m
2025
1.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
18.6 m
2024
32.1 m
2025
32.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.4 m
2024
1.3 m
2025
5.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
86.8 m
2024
124.5 m
2025
80.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
112.0 m
2024
149.3 m
2025
155.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
218.4 m
2024
344.5 m
2025
312.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
-43.3 m
2024
-188.7 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.2 m
2024
-17.3 m
2025
-177.3 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
5.6 m
2024
6.4 m
2025
13.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-4.4 m ≈
2024
-23.7 m ≈
2025
-190.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-8.3 m
2024
-7.2 m
2025
-175.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
9.1 m
2024
43.7 m
2025
397.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
27.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
20.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
-39.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-50.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-57.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-23.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
-19.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
-14.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
-16.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
-12.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
-508.9 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
-5.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
3.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
3.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
2.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-76.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
22.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-98.2 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
28 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
77 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
50 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
55 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
1.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
4.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
3.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-5.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

Risk

Altman Z
3.37
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

7.72 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 1.9 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
1.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
1.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
-19.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-57.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
10.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

33/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 03 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 06 Aug 2026
verified 951derived 72

Score by group

44% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality-16.9%0 (on a fixed band)24%
Net margin · Quality-57.3%50 (vs peers)14%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth27.8%100 (on a fixed band)19%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheet-5.4x0 (on a fixed band)14%
Current ratio · Balance sheet3.9x100 (on a fixed band)10%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-5.1%0 (on a fixed band)19%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet40/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality19/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

Redwire Corporation (RDW). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 335.4 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 10.3%; net margin -57.3%; ROE -19.2%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 43.8% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 27.8%
  • Current ratio: 3.9x

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: -16.9%
  • Interest coverage: -5.4x
  • FCF yield: -5.1%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

Guided Missiles & Space Vehicles & Parts (SIC 3760) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median —
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
P/S
4.5x
vertical median 10.0x
below median (−54.8%)
P/B
1.2x
vertical median 2.3x
below median (−49.6%)
ROE
-19.2%
vertical median -23.3%
above median
Net margin
-57.3%
vertical median -50.2%
below median
EBIT margin
-50.5%
vertical median -57.5%
above median
Revenue YoY
10.3%
vertical median 17.0%
below median (−39.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median —
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation137.5 bn21.180.2%8.2%+5.6%+30% / +33%
RKLBRocket Lab Corp31.3 bn—-7.9%-21.5%+38.0%+24% / +1,096%
KTOSKratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.6.8 bn206.81.1%2.0%+18.5%−53% / +89%
FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.2.9 bn—-238.4%-126.6%+163.0%−3% / unavailable
RDWRedwire Corporation1.9 bn—-19.2%-57.3%+10.3%+11% / +165%
MNTSMomentus Inc.40.9 m—-68.3%-927.7%−47.5%−85% / −100%
VOYGVoyager Technologies, Inc.——-38.7%-79.0%+15.4%+3% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for RDW from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

    In brief

    Redwire is an integrated space and defense technology company that builds satellites, space infrastructure and autonomous airborne systems. In the second quarter of 2026 revenue grew 89.6% 3, and backlog reached 542.1 million USD 2, pointing to solid demand for its products.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The company has a proven flight and mission heritage, with systems used for years in real operations. Its backlog has grown since the end of 2025 2.
    • Liquidity has increased significantly, giving flexibility for strategic investments 3.
    • The company has a presence in the United States and Europe, allowing it to serve customers in both regions.

    Weaknesses

    • The company has reported net losses over several periods and has a limited operating history since the Edge Autonomy acquisition.
    • A significant share of revenue depends on government contracts, which can be partly funded or interrupted.
    • The company has identified material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting 1.

    Opportunities

    • Demand for drones and missile defense in Europe and the US could increase orders for existing products.
    • Lunar surface infrastructure could open new contracts if funding is redirected that way 2.
    • Expanding production capacity in new locations could support higher deliveries.

    Threats

    • Reduced military support for Ukraine could lower sales, which already form a small share of the total 1.
    • Competitive pressure and loss of market share could weigh on margins.
    • Budget delays or shifts in defense and space priorities can postpone orders.

    Risks

    • Dependence on government contractshigh

      Government contracts are often partly funded, can be terminated and are heavily audited, which can affect revenue 1.

    • Margin erosionhigh

      Fixed-price contracts and estimate adjustments can reduce profitability, as happened in fiscal 2025 1.

    • Tariffs and production costsmedium

      Recent tariffs could reduce demand and raise manufacturing costs 1.

    • Acquisition integrationmedium

      Integrating Edge Autonomy and other acquisitions could delay the expected synergies 1.

    • Dilution and controlmedium

      The majority shareholder holds majority voting power on the board, and new share issuance could dilute investors 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If the revenue growth of the second quarter of 2026 holds, the company could reach its reaffirmed annual revenue target 3.
    • A record backlog and a book-to-bill ratio above one suggest demand exceeding current deliveries 23.
    • Rising liquidity could allow investment in capacity and technology without heavy reliance on new borrowing 3.

    What would break the thesis

    • The company continues to report net losses, and margins must hold to change the long-term financial picture 3.
    • Dependence on government budgets and funding delays can shift revenue between quarters.
    • The identified weaknesses in internal control could affect confidence in financial reporting 1.

    What to watch

    • Delivery against the 450 to 500 million USD revenue forecast2026
    • Development of the backlog and the book-to-bill ratioQ3 2026
    • Adoption of the EU Space Act and SAFE measures in Europe2027
    • Effect of the US fiscal 2027 budget on contractsnext 10-K

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).

    The business

    Redwire describes its activity as an integrated space and defense technology company with operations in 28 locations across North America and Europe 1. The business is organized into two reportable segments, Space and Defense Tech, serving national security, civil and commercial customers 1. The business model rests on mission-critical solutions delivered through short and long duration projects 2.

    The revenue mix shows significant dependence on government contracts, so the timing of awards and funding can shape results from quarter to quarter 1. The company states that no material part of its business is seasonal, though revenue distribution between periods can vary 1.

    Segments

    Space

    The Space segment delivers next-generation spacecraft, large space infrastructure and microgravity capabilities for civil, national security and commercial customers 1. The portfolio includes the SabreSat, Phantom, Hammerhead, Thresher and Mako platforms for low, medium and geostationary orbits 1. The segment also includes the ROSA solar array and the IBDM docking system 1.

    Defense Tech

    The Defense Tech segment develops autonomous airborne systems, optical sensors and radio frequency payloads for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions, serving the US government and allied states 1. Stalker and Penguin are the main systems, and in the second quarter of 2026 follow-on orders for Stalker Block 30 were awarded 2. The company expanded fuel cell production in Ann Arbor, Michigan 1.

    Market context

    Redwire's market is tied to defense and space budgets. The US national defense authorization for fiscal 2026 was set at 900.6 billion USD 1, and the European Union launched the Readiness 2030 plan, with nearly 800 billion EUR over four years 1. Meanwhile NASA redirected funding in 2026 from the Lunar Gateway station toward lunar surface infrastructure 2, changing the civil demand mix.

    European defense demand is supported by NATO commitments and the SAFE loan instrument, whose demand has exceeded the initial 150 billion EUR envelope 1. If these funds translate into procurement, they could support the company's orders for drones and space systems 1.

    Trends

    • Rising defense spendingtailwind

      US and European defense budgets have grown substantially, and NATO plans call for higher spending through 2035 1. This could support demand for drones, sensors and defense systems.

    • US budget uncertaintymixed

      NASA funding was reduced in the proposed 2026 budget and later partly restored 1. Delays in awarding contracts can affect the timing of revenue.

    • EU space regulatory frameworkmixed

      The proposed EU Space Act would harmonize rules for space activities in the EU, with possible application from 2030, but no final text has been agreed 2. Changes could alter conditions for operators active in Europe.

    • Tariff and supply chain pressureheadwind

      Recent tariffs could reduce demand and raise manufacturing costs, and supplier disruptions can delay deliveries 1.

    Competitive position

    Redwire describes its competition only in general terms, as existing or new companies that can press prices and market share 1. The provided sources do not name specific competitors, so no other companies can be confirmed from the filings.

    Diversity of customers and products, along with presence in several countries, are the elements through which the company seeks to differentiate itself 1. Competition in the UAS and small satellite areas remains a constant pressure, as in any technology segment.

    • Competitors not named in the provided sources

      The company's filings describe competition only in generic terms, without naming firms.

    • Suppliers and supply chain partners

      The company depends on suppliers and major partners whose problems could affect deliveries.

    • Third-party launch providers

      Satellites and payloads depend on outside launch providers, a market factor rather than a direct competitor.

    • Major defense prime contractors

      The company often delivers through large contractors, which can be both partners and competitors.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Redwire Corporation · 27 Feb 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Redwire Corporation · 06 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Redwire Corporation · 05 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.