olivLaw · US equity research
Origin Agritech Limited SEED
Agricultural Production-Crops · SIC 0100 · Vertical: Agricultural Production-Crops (SIC 0100)
Origin Agritech is a Chinese agricultural biotechnology company focused on researching, producing and distributing hybrid corn seeds, including genetically modified varieties. Revenue fell 19% in fiscal 2025 versus the prior year and the company reports a net loss along with a going concern statement, which makes its ability to fund its growth plan central to any assessment.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) stock was 0.72 USD (−1.37% on the day), with market capitalisation 8.6 m USD, dividend yield 1.78%, beta 0.68, 52-week range 0.68–1.70 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 39.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.63 – 0.96
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.28 · band width 42.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.88 / 1.07
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.03 / -0.03
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −14.3% | −1.1% | −13.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −32.1% | −0.5% | −31.6 pp | — |
| 6 months | −38.5% | +4.4% | −42.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −35.1% | +12.3% | −47.5 pp | — |
| 1 year | −52.9% | +13.5% | −66.5 pp | −24.3% |
| 3 years | −73.9% | +76.4% | −150.3 pp | −25.1% |
| 5 years | −91.8% | +63.7% | −155.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 m | 13.4 m | 7.7 m | 7.2 m | 7.4 m | 13.0 m | 16.2 m | 12.8 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +614.5% | −42.6% | −7.2% | +3.5% | +75.5% | +24.5% | −20.6% |
| Net income | -22.3 m | -9.0 m | -12.5 m | -14.1 m | -882.0 k | 7.7 m | 3.0 m | -7.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −61.7% | −354.0% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | -2.51 | -0.15 | 1.17 | 0.46 | -1.00 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | −60.7% | −317.4% |
| net % | -1,188.7% | -67.2% | -162.4% | -197.2% | -11.9% | 59.3% | 18.3% | -58.4% |
| Free cash flow | -1.9 m | -8.8 m | -824.0 k | -4.0 m | 377.0 k | -2.0 m | -2.9 m | -4.8 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 2.2 m USD
- Financial debt
- 2.6 m USD
- Net debt
- 361.0 k USD
- Equity
- -8.7 m USD
- Total assets
- 14.2 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.44x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -45.6%
- FCF margin
- -37.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.7 m | 7.2 m | 7.4 m | 13.0 m | 16.2 m | 12.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 7.2 m | 5.2 m | 5.1 m | 10.6 m | 13.9 m | 11.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 516.0 k | 2.0 m | 2.3 m | 2.4 m | 2.3 m | 900.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Research & development | 604.0 k | 305.0 k | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | 1.4 m | 1.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.6 m | 1.3 m | 549.0 k | 561.0 k | 404.0 k | 451.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 851.0 k | 1.3 m | 1.2 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 14 Feb 2023verified |
| Pre-tax income | -15.0 m | -19.6 m | 326.0 k | 8.8 m | 2.7 m | -8.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Income tax | 62.0 k | 27.0 k | -2.0 k | 23.0 k | 9.0 k | -41.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Net income | -12.5 m | -14.1 m | -882.0 k | 7.7 m | 3.0 m | -7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | — | -2.51 | -0.15 | 1.17 | 0.46 | -1.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 5.0 m | 5.6 m | 5.8 m | 6.6 m | 6.5 m | 7.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | — | — | 0.01 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026derived |
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 3.3 m | 2.4 m | 2.5 m | 3.3 m | 1.2 m | 2.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Receivables | 457.0 k | 40.0 k | 87.0 k | 117.0 k | 575.0 k | 486.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Inventories | 2.0 m | 644.0 k | 297.0 k | 1.8 m | 1.8 m | 2.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Current assets | 9.5 m | 9.0 m | 11.5 m | 19.7 m | 14.2 m | 9.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 17.0 m | 7.5 m | 6.5 m | 2.9 m | 4.0 m | 4.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.4 m | 286.0 k | 252.0 k | 454.0 k | 456.0 k | — | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2025verified |
| Total assets | 37.4 m | 18.4 m | 19.1 m | 33.2 m | 18.8 m | 14.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | 1.4 m | 687.0 k | 1.2 m | 1.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 21.2 m | 19.4 m | — | 706.0 k | 1.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 20.2 m | 137.7 m | 2.0 m | 860.0 k | 830.0 k | 1.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 26.0 m | 44.2 m | 41.3 m | 43.7 m | 26.3 m | 21.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 50.0 m | 47.0 m | 43.5 m | 44.5 m | 27.1 m | 22.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Equity | -12.6 m | -28.6 m | -24.3 m | -11.3 m | -8.4 m | -8.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 5.5 m | 5.8 m | 6.0 m | — | — | 11.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -824.0 k | -3.9 m | 465.0 k | -759.0 k | -2.1 m | -3.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Capex | 0 | 110.0 k | 88.0 k | 1.2 m | 710.0 k | 1.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -824.0 k ≈ | -4.0 m ≈ | 377.0 k ≈ | -2.0 m ≈ | -2.9 m ≈ | -4.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -6.2 m | -186.0 k | -156.0 k | -1.6 m | -710.0 k | -1.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 9.7 m | 3.1 m | -47.0 k | 3.2 m | 640.0 k | 6.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | — | — | 343.0 k | 28.0 k | 70.0 k | 153.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Jan 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 8.6 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.17 – 0.23 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.17 – 0.23 (Mid 0.19)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -58.4% | 9 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 20.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.4x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -55.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 1.8% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial9/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial25/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Origin Agritech Limited (SEED). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 12.8 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -20.6%; net margin -58.4%.
The estimated value range is 0.17–0.23 USD per share (median of 1 methods, agreement: single method); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.19 USD, the price of 0.72 USD leaves a potential of -73.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -272.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 20.2%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: -58.4%
- Current ratio: 0.4x
- FCF yield: -55.8%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 1.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Agricultural Production-Crops (SIC 0100) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVACorteva, Inc. | 8.2 bn | 8.1 | 4.0% | 5.7% | +2.9% | +21% / +81% |
| DMCDel Monte Corporation | 1.4 bn | 16.8 | 4.0% | 1.9% | +1.0% | −21% / +26% |
| AGROAdecoagro S.A. | 1.3 bn | 10.3 | 7.1% | 6.1% | +16.9% | +14% / −19% |
| DOLEDole plc | 1.3 bn | 21.9 | 4.5% | 0.6% | +8.2% | −4% / +20% |
| VFFVillage Farms International, Inc. | 358.3 m | 16.4 | 7.6% | 9.8% | +10.2% | −26% / +271% |
| LMNRLimoneira Company | 190.7 m | — | -25.7% | -33.0% | −16.6% | −24% / −31% |
| AGRZAgroz Inc. | 42.0 m | 48.0 | 25.6% | 8.6% | unavailable | −98% / unavailable |
| LOCLLocal Bounti Corporation | 22.1 m | — | — | -130.5% | +26.8% | −61% / −73% |
| TULPBloomia Holdings, Inc. | 10.9 m | — | -87.9% | -23.2% | unavailable | −40% / −54% |
| SEEDOrigin Agritech Limited | 8.6 m | — | — | -58.4% | −20.6% | −53% / −74% |
| EDBLEdible Garden AG Incorporated | 1.4 m | — | -197.1% | -51.0% | −7.6% | −100% / −100% |
| LNDBrasilAgro – Brazilian Agricultural Real Estate Company | — | — | 6.3% | 15.7% | +13.8% | −12% / −32% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for SEED from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jan 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026), 6-K (13 Jul 2026), 6-K (21 May 2026).
In brief
Origin Agritech is a Chinese agricultural biotechnology company focused on researching, producing and distributing hybrid corn seeds, including genetically modified varieties. Revenue fell 19% in fiscal 2025 versus the prior year and the company reports a net loss along with a going concern statement, which makes its ability to fund its growth plan central to any assessment. 1
SWOT
Strengths
- Biotechnology and gene editing platform for corn, with approved traits and cooperation with Chinese research institutes.
- Portfolio of intellectual property, including patents and trademarks registered in China.
- Long history in seed research and experience obtaining biosafety approvals.
Weaknesses
- Revenue and profitability declined in fiscal 2025 and the company reports a net loss.
- The filing flags going concern uncertainty and a need for additional capital.
- Distribution relies on joint ventures with outside partners over which control is limited.
Opportunities
- If approvals for new transgenic corn varieties materialize, commercialization could expand the proprietary segment.
- Drought-tolerant seeds could meet agricultural needs in northwest China.
- Gene editing technology could be licensed to industry partners if development advances.
Threats
- Low consumer acceptance of genetically modified food may limit demand.
- Regulation can require lengthy and costly testing with no guarantee of a favourable result.
- Traditional and international competition could further reduce the share held by proprietary products.
Risks
- Going concernhigh
The auditor issued a going concern qualification, and the company could be forced to curtail operations if it cannot fund its activities.
- VIE structurehigh
Investors may ultimately not own a part of the business in practice, because some operations are run through contractual arrangements.
- Regulatory approvalsmedium
If approvals for genetically modified products are delayed or not granted, development and commercialization of the pipeline could be affected.
- Reliance on joint venturesmedium
Distribution performance depends on partners who may not meet expectations, and control over their distribution methods is limited.
- Intellectual property protectionlow
The practice of smaller companies slightly modifying seeds and passing them off as their own could erode the technology advantage.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If approvals for transgenic corn and new varieties materialize, the company could capitalize on its biotechnology platform and intellectual property portfolio.
- Modernization of the Xinjiang factory could raise volumes and efficiency over the longer term, supporting non-proprietary revenue.
- Gene editing of inbred lines could shorten variety development time and open licensing opportunities for industry partners.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue fell in fiscal 2025 and the company reports a net loss, which could indicate difficulty in regaining market share.
- The going concern qualification suggests financing remains a problem, and issuing new shares could dilute existing shareholders.
- Limited acceptance of GM food and slow regulation could delay the period in which new products generate revenue.
What to watch
- Receipt of approval certificates for new transgenic corn varieties2026
- Trend in proprietary seed revenue after trait updatesnext 10-K
- Size of additional financing and any change in the going concern assessmentnext 20-F
- Commercialization status of gene-edited corn products2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jan 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (30 Oct 2026), 6-K (13 Oct 2026), 6-K (30 Sept 2026), 6-K (31 Jul 2026), 6-K (13 Jul 2026), 6-K (21 May 2026).
The business
Origin Agritech Limited, together with its subsidiaries, is focused on agricultural biotechnology and operates in the PRC.
Its main activity is developing and distributing corn seeds; since 2015 it has shifted its strategy from a traditional seed company to a biotechnology one, with transgenic products such as herbicide tolerance and insect resistance traits. 1
The operating structure includes regional seed distribution joint ventures, a VIE in Hainan province used for winter research and a US subsidiary, all of which the filing describes as sources of risk over control of the business. 1
Market context
The market is Chinese hybrid seed and genetically modified corn, where recent regulatory steps have opened the way to commercialization, though consumer acceptance of GM food remains limited. 1
Recent biosafety approvals and testing standards for transgenic corn could enable commercialization, but the timetable for approval of new varieties, expected for 2026, depends on regulators. 1
Trends
- More favourable GMO regulation in Chinatailwind
New biosafety certificates and variety approval procedures could open the way to commercializing genetically modified corn if approvals materialize.
- Uncertain public acceptanceheadwind
Chinese consumers remain reluctant to embrace GM food, which could delay adoption of the company's products.
- Xinjiang factory modernizationmixed
Equipment investment may raise efficiency and volumes over the longer term, but it temporarily reduced revenue from external seed production.
- Climate-resilient seedstailwind
Demand for drought-tolerant varieties relevant to northwest China could support growth in the non-proprietary segment if the trend persists.
Competitive position
The company faces competition from traditional seed products and from international players in the genetically modified seed market, as described in the risk section of the filing. 1
Rising competition has eroded sales of proprietary seeds, and the company is allocating additional research resources to improve its legacy varieties. 1
- Dabeinong Biotechnology
Development partner for the DBN9953 event and three other corn events, cited as part of the company's technology collaboration.
- China Golden Marker Biotechnology
Partner in the consortium licensing the company's IR/HT traits, aimed at widening application of gene editing.
- Multinational seed companies
Named in the filing as partners and competitors in the genetically modified seed market, without further detail.
- Traditional seed producers
Competitors selling conventional seeds that pressure revenue from the company's proprietary varieties.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Oct 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)31 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 May 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)24 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)02 Feb 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)30 Jan 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)30 Sept 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / Origin Agritech Limited · 30 Jan 2026
- [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Origin Agritech Limited · 14 Nov 2005
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.