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olivLaw · US equity research

Somnigroup International Inc. SGI

Household Furniture · SIC 2510 · Vertical: Household Furniture (SIC 2510)

69.81USD+6.82% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Somnigroup International is the world's largest bedding company, selling through brands such as Tempur-Pedic, Sealy and Stearns & Foster, through Mattress Firm stores and through online and wholesale channels. After the 2025 Mattress Firm acquisition and the 2026 agreement to acquire Leggett & Platt, the company is in an integration phase, with quarterly sales slightly lower and adjusted EPS higher. Annual net sales were 7476.5 million USD in 2025, and second-quarter 2026 net sales were 1823.5 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Somnigroup International Inc. (SGI) stock was 69.81 USD (+6.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 14.7 bn USD, P/E 27.9 on diluted EPS of 2.50 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.92%, beta 1.15, 52-week range 61.49–97.99 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.8 bn USD (−3.0% YoY), net income of 110.9 m USD (+12.0% YoY), diluted EPS 0.52 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
14.7 bn USD
shares as of 04 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
27.9
Diluted EPS TTM 2.50 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
3.58%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.92%
DPS 12m 0.64
Beta (2y)
1.15
Volatility (1y) 42%
52-week range
61.4997.99

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
63.6
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
60.13 – 67.63
above the upper band · %B 1.29 · band width 11.7%
SMA 50 / 200
64.30 / 73.28
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
0.68 / 0.07
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+12.1%−1.1%+13.2 pp—
3 months+0.3%−0.5%+0.8 pp—
6 months−11.2%+4.4%−15.6 pp—
Year to date−21.8%+12.3%−34.1 pp—
1 year−12.9%+13.5%−26.4 pp+19.2%
3 years+78.8%+76.4%+2.4 pp−9.8%
5 years+54.9%+63.7%−8.8 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−37.2%
10 Feb 2026 → 19 May 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−57.7%
04 Jan 2022 → 16 Jun 2022
Compound annual growth (5y)
+9.1%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.8 bn USD
−3.0% YoY
Net income
110.9 m USD
+12.0% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.52
+10.6% YoY
net / operating
6.1% / 11.1%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.3 bn1.2 bn1.6 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn1.9 bn1.8 bn1.8 bn
Cost of revenue748.5 m723.4 m1.0 bn1.1 bn1.2 bn1.0 bn1.0 bn1.0 bn
Gross profit551.5 m484.5 m580.5 m827.2 m952.8 m822.7 m776.9 m817.2 m
Operating income201.8 m127.6 m13.2 m179.9 m314.7 m247.1 m187.1 m201.7 m
Depreciation & amortisation50.8 m52.3 m66.1 m68.6 m76.0 m79.8 m72.5 m73.4 m
Interest expense30.8 m36.3 m61.3 m72.5 m69.9 m64.2 m60.0 m59.0 m
Pre-tax income170.6 m95.7 m-49.3 m102.7 m233.9 m193.7 m137.3 m147.8 m
Income tax40.8 m23.1 m-16.5 m3.2 m56.2 m52.8 m33.4 m37.2 m
Net income130.0 m71.9 m-33.1 m99.0 m177.4 m140.8 m104.2 m110.9 m
Diluted EPS0.730.40 ≈-0.170.470.830.66 ≈0.490.52
Operating cash flow256.6 m ≈129.1 m106.4 m186.1 m ≈408.2 m ≈99.4 m246.5 m236.3 m ≈
Capex16.4 m ≈20.9 m24.0 m36.7 m ≈47.9 m ≈58.3 m60.5 m54.7 m ≈
Dividends paid22.6 m ≈22.6 m32.9 m31.5 m ≈31.5 m ≈31.5 m36.7 m35.8 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 82 percentile of its own 39-quarter history (min 3.6, median 15.3, max 55.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue2.7 bn3.1 bn3.7 bn4.9 bn4.9 bn4.9 bn4.9 bn7.5 bn
Revenue YoY−1.9%+14.9%+18.4%+34.1%−0.2%+0.1%+0.1%+51.6%
Net income100.5 m189.5 m348.8 m624.5 m455.7 m368.1 m384.3 m384.1 m
Net income YoY−33.6%+88.6%+84.1%+79.0%−27.0%−19.2%+4.4%−0.1%
Diluted EPS0.460.861.643.062.532.082.161.84
Diluted EPS YoY−83.4%+87.0%+90.7%+86.6%−17.3%−17.8%+3.8%−14.8%
net %3.7%6.1%9.5%12.7%9.3%7.5%7.8%5.1%
Free cash flowunavailableunavailable543.4 m599.8 m72.3 m384.9 m569.2 m633.2 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
134.9 m USD
Financial debt
4.7 bn USD
Net debt
4.6 bn USD
Equity
3.1 bn USD
Total assets
11.6 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.52x
Current ratio
0.83x
ROE
20.9%
ROA
4.4%
FCF margin
8.5%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
4.9 bn
2024
4.9 bn
2025
7.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
2.9 bn
2024
2.9 bn
2025
4.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
2.0 bn
2024
2.0 bn
2025
3.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Research & development
2023
30.6 m
2024
30.8 m
2025
32.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
607.2 m
2024
634.2 m
2025
754.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
183.0 m
2024
201.5 m
2025
290.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
790.2 m ≈
2024
835.7 m ≈
2025
1.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
129.9 m
2024
134.8 m
2025
267.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
474.1 m
2024
504.3 m
2025
481.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
103.4 m
2024
118.6 m
2025
95.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
368.1 m
2024
384.3 m
2025
384.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
2.08
2024
2.16
2025
1.84

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
177.3 m
2024
178.2 m
2025
209.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
0.44
2024
0.52
2025
0.60

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
74.9 m
2024
1.7 bn
2025
134.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
431.4 m
2024
404.5 m
2025
358.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
483.1 m
2024
447.0 m
2025
630.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2021verified

Goodwill
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
714.8 m
2024
700.5 m
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
4.6 bn
2024
6.0 bn
2025
11.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
311.3 m
2024
360.5 m
2025
401.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
44.9 m
2024
69.5 m
2025
112.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
2.5 bn
2024
3.8 bn
2025
4.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
908.2 m
2024
960.3 m
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
4.2 bn
2024
5.4 bn
2025
8.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
323.4 m
2024
559.0 m
2025
3.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
570.3 m
2024
666.5 m
2025
800.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
185.4 m
2024
97.3 m
2025
166.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
384.9 m ≈
2024
569.2 m ≈
2025
633.2 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-187.8 m
2024
-96.7 m
2025
-3.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
-384.3 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
616.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
77.7 m
2024
92.7 m
2025
127.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
51.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
15.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
15.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
19.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
-0.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
-5.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
1.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
-14.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
-10.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
2.3%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
11.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025

Profitability

Gross margin
44.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBITDA margin
16.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
12.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
17.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
4.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
13.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
9.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
25.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
17.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Balance sheet

Net debt
3.7 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
3.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.7x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
990.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
221.4 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
769.0 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
144.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
79.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
17 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
58 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
43 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion cycle
33 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
14.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
14.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
27.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
27.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
3.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
4.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
15.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
19.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
FCF yield
5.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 56 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

69.81 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 14.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
14.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
27.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
4.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
17.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
7.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
51.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
0.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

34/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 04 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 07 Aug 2026
verified 2712derived 176

Score by group

  • Valuation33
  • Returns48
  • Quality88
  • Balance sheet60
  • Growth50

Estimated value range

Low
30.48
USD per share
Mid
30.54
USD per share
High
36.19
USD per share
Price: 69.81 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -56.3% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -128.6% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 3 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.88 – 115.10 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)75.30 – 115.10 (Mid 90.82)
    WACC 9.3% · starting FCFF 958.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%
    The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.
    Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 3.0%
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
  • Peers: P/E30.48 – 36.19 (Mid 30.54)
    3 companies used · median multiple 12.2x · quartiles 12.2x – 14.5x
    FLXS, LZB, XMAX
  • Dividend discount (DDM)7.88 – 10.60 (Mid 9.04)
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Household Furniture (SIC 2510)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 56/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality13.0%85 (on a fixed band)10%
Net margin · Quality7.0%83 (vs peers)6%
FCF conversion · Quality144.2%100 (on a fixed band)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth15.0%100 (on a fixed band)8%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth-10.1%0 (on a fixed band)8%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.0x100 (on a fixed band)10%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet3.8x35 (on a fixed band)6%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.7x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation27.9x9 (on a fixed band)10%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation11.7x30 (on a fixed band)10%
FCF yield · Valuation5.2%65 (on a fixed band)8%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns0.9%13 (on a fixed band)6%
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns17.6%100 (on a fixed band)4%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet60/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality88/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Returns48/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation33/100 · 3/3 factors with a value

Memo

SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC. (SGI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 7.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 51.6%; net margin 7.0%; ROE 17.6%; net debt/EBITDA 0.0x.

The estimated value range is 30.48–36.19 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 30.54 USD, the price of 69.81 USD leaves a potential of -56.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -128.6% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 56/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 13.0%
  • Net margin: 7.0%
  • FCF conversion: 144.2%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 15.0%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.0x
  • Payout ratio (FCF): 17.6%

What contradicts it

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: -10.1%
  • Current ratio: 0.7x
  • P/E (TTM): 27.9x
  • EV/EBITDA: 11.7x
  • Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.9%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Household Furniture (SIC 2510) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 6 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
27.9x
vertical median 12.2x
above median (+128.6%)
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
vertical median —
P/S
1.9x
vertical median 0.7x
above median (+196.2%)
P/B
4.5x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+132.0%)
ROE
17.6%
vertical median 8.0%
above median (+118.8%)
Net margin
7.0%
vertical median -0.7%
above median
EBIT margin
12.5%
vertical median -1.3%
above median
Revenue YoY
51.6%
vertical median 2.5%
above median (+1,993.9%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.0x
vertical median —
Dividend yield
0.9%
vertical median 2.1%
below median (−55.4%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
SGISomnigroup International Inc.14.7 bn27.917.6%7.0%+51.6%−13% / +79%
LZBLa-Z-Boy Incorporated1.3 bn16.78.0%3.9%+0.8%−15% / −6%
CODICompass Diversified Holdings926.2 m—-17.7%-5.3%+4.8%+67% / −39%
XMAXXmax Inc.336.8 m12.252.9%185.9%+72.6%−6% / +155%
FLXSFlexsteel Industries, Inc.312.1 m12.220.5%6.7%+4.1%+90% / +343%
HOFTHooker Furnishings Corporation165.2 m—-9.9%-8.7%−12.4%+44% / −14%
PRPLPurple Innovation, Inc.44.8 m——-8.9%−3.9%−86% / −82%

1- and 3-year price returns: for SGI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
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Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
46.23
Total return -33% · Per year -33%
81.35
Total return 18% · Per year 18%
122.03
Total return 76% · Per year 76%
3 years
54.79
Total return -19% · Per year -7%
107.51
Total return 58% · Per year 16%
175.60
Total return 156% · Per year 37%
5 years
64.94
Total return -2% · Per year -0%
142.08
Total return 111% · Per year 16%
252.69
Total return 272% · Per year 30%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 26.88
  • Net margin± 18.81
  • Annual revenue growth± 14.04
  • Annual dilution± 1.58

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Somnigroup International is the world's largest bedding company, selling through brands such as Tempur-Pedic, Sealy and Stearns & Foster, through Mattress Firm stores and through online and wholesale channels. After the 2025 Mattress Firm acquisition and the 2026 agreement to acquire Leggett & Platt, the company is in an integration phase, with quarterly sales slightly lower and adjusted EPS higher. Annual net sales were 7476.5 million USD in 2025 1, and second-quarter 2026 net sales were 1823.5 million USD 3.

SWOT

Strengths

  • A portfolio of recognized brands, an extensive omni-channel network and vertical integration from manufacturing to retail 1.
  • Cash generation capacity, with record operating cash flows in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • A product innovation program supported by several research and development centers and a large base of patents and trademarks 1.

Weaknesses

  • Significant debt after the Mattress Firm acquisition, with leverage high relative to adjusted EBITDA 3.
  • Dependence on volatile raw materials and complex supply chains, with margins sensitive to costs 1.
  • The Mattress Firm segment showed lower sales and margins in the second quarter of 2026 3.

Opportunities

  • Integrating Leggett & Platt could extend the company into components if the transaction closes 2.
  • Growing the direct channel and expanding stores in key markets could raise margins 1.
  • The launch of the new Stearns & Foster collection in North America could revive the premium segment 1.

Threats

  • Competition from direct-to-consumer makers and private-label retailers could reduce market share 1.
  • Trade tariffs and geopolitical instability could raise costs and disrupt supply chains 12.
  • Cybersecurity risks and dependence on third-party technology providers could affect online operations 1.

Risks

  • Acquisition integrationhigh

    Integrating Mattress Firm and a possible integration of Leggett & Platt could bring unforeseen costs and delay the announced synergies 12.

  • Raw material costshigh

    Volatility in foam, polyester and steel prices could hurt gross margin if price increases do not fully offset them 13.

  • Consumer demandmedium

    Macroeconomic pressure on consumers could reduce store and online sales, as seen in the second quarter of 2026 3.

  • Compliance with merchandising commitmentsmedium

    Failure to meet the obligation to allocate floor space to third-party premium mattresses could lead to regulatory action or litigation 1.

  • Cybersecuritymedium

    Cyberattacks and failures at third-party IT providers could disrupt operations and expose customer data 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If Mattress Firm acquisition synergies keep lifting margins, the company could deliver the adjusted EPS growth it has guided 3.
  • Its leading global position and strong brand portfolio could support market share even in a fragmented industry 1.
  • High operating cash flow and lower leverage could support dividends and share buybacks 3.

What would break the thesis

  • If Mattress Firm sales keep falling because of store closures, synergies may not be enough to offset the pressure 3.
  • High debt and the Leggett & Platt acquisition could limit financial flexibility if demand cools 23.
  • Growing online competition and private-label retailers could erode margins over the long term 1.

What to watch

  • Completion of the Leggett & Platt acquisition and its effect on share countQ3 2026
  • Mattress Firm sales trend and store countQ3 2026
  • Delivery of the adjusted EPS guidance of 2.85 to 3.15 USD2026
  • Annual 10-K for 2026 and details on Leggett & Platt integrationnext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Somnigroup presents itself as the world's largest bedding company, with integrated design, manufacturing, distribution and retail, serving consumers in over 100 countries through Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm and Dreams 1. The portfolio includes recognized brands such as Tempur-Pedic, Sealy and Stearns & Foster, and the group operates over 2,800 stores, about 30 e-commerce platforms and over 70 manufacturing facilities 1. The company renamed itself Somnigroup after the Mattress Firm acquisition, and its stated strategy is earnings growth with high return on invested capital and strong free cash flow 1.

The sales model is omni-channel, with two main channels: Direct, which includes company-owned stores, e-commerce and call centers, and Wholesale, meaning sales to third-party retailers, hospitality and healthcare customers 1. The Direct channel rose to 63.5% of net sales in 2025 from 24.9% in 2024, mainly due to the Mattress Firm acquisition 1. The company also has an OEM business producing non-branded mattresses and pillows for third-party retailers 1.

On August 6, 2026, the company reported a quarter with net sales down 3.0% and revised its adjusted EPS guidance 3. In April 2026 it also agreed to acquire Leggett & Platt in an all-stock transaction, expected to close by the end of the third quarter of 2026 23.

Segments

Mattress Firm

The Mattress Firm segment consists of stores and distribution centers in the U.S. and sells only through the Direct channel; second-quarter 2026 sales were 922.2 million USD, down 2.8%, mainly because of store closures 3.

Tempur Sealy North America

This segment covers the U.S., Canada and Mexico, with sales through Direct and Wholesale channels; sales to Mattress Firm are eliminated on consolidation, and gross margin rose in the second quarter of 2026 thanks to acquisition synergies 3.

Tempur Sealy International

The segment covers Europe, Asia-Pacific and Latin America and had relatively stable sales in the second quarter of 2026, with a slight sales increase but a lower operating margin due to raw material cost pressure 3.

Market context

The company describes the global sleep industry as a 120 billion USD market structured for long-term growth, supported by innovation, growing awareness of the link between sleep and health, and household formation 1. The industry is fragmented internationally, while the U.S. manufacturer market is concentrated and the retailer market fragmented 1. In 2025 the industry was pressured by macroeconomic factors, and the company expects to outperform the industry through new product launches 12.

The market is moving toward direct-to-consumer online sales and retailer private labels, creating channel competition 1. In 2026 the company noted that tariff policy remains uncertain and that some raw materials, such as polyurethane foam and steel, are volatile 12.

Trends

  • Raw material cost pressureheadwind

    Prices of polyurethane foam, polyester and steel components are volatile, and inflation has raised costs; the company implemented price increases after the second quarter of 2026, which could limit margin loss if demand holds up 13.

  • Mattress Firm integration and synergiestailwind

    Synergies from the Mattress Firm acquisition improved the North America segment margins, and adjusted operating income rose in the second quarter of 2026 3.

  • Trade tariffsmixed

    The company states that most products sold in the U.S. are made locally, which could reduce tariff impact, but the duration and extent of tariffs remain uncertain 12.

  • Store closures and weaker demandheadwind

    Mattress Firm sales fell in the second quarter of 2026 because of store closures and weaker demand, and consumers have become more cautious 3.

Competitive position

The company operates in a bedding industry where competition is based on price, quality, brand recognition, product availability and performance 1. Competitors include manufacturers selling direct to consumers and retailers developing private labels, and low-end imported beds have been cited as pressure 1.

The U.S. manufacturer market is concentrated and the retailer market fragmented, while the international market is regional and local 1. Vertically integrated retailers could negatively affect the company's sales, and the pillow market has no dominant player 1.

  • Third-party bedding retailers and specialty chains

    Third-party retailers named in the source, including multi-brand retailers and competitors' own stores, compete for the same distribution channels 1.

  • Direct-to-consumer online mattress makers

    Several American and international companies have entered direct-to-consumer online models for mattresses, intensifying price competition 1.

  • Retailers with private-label products

    Retailers developing their own products compete with the company's Sleepy's brand and wholesale brands 1.

  • Component and pillow producers

    Competition in components and pillows is fragmented, with many regional participants 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report26 Aug 2026
    Acquisition or disposition of assets · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report25 Aug 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure
  • Quarterly report07 Aug 2026
  • Current report06 Aug 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report06 Aug 2026
    Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report27 Jul 2026
    Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report04 Jun 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure
  • Current report15 May 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report08 May 2026
  • Current report07 May 2026
    Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Somnigroup International Inc. · 27 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Somnigroup International Inc. · 07 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Somnigroup International Inc. · 06 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.