olivLaw · US equity research
Tractor Supply Company TSCO
Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply · SIC 5200 · Vertical: Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply (SIC 5200)
Tractor Supply Company is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States, with 2,602 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 and net sales of $15.52 billion that year. In the third quarter of 2026 net sales rose 5.1% to $3.91 billion, but gross margin and profit fell, and management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) stock was 36.58 USD (+4.22% on the day), with market capitalisation 19.1 bn USD, P/E 10.3 on diluted EPS of 3.56 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.57%, beta 0.53, 52-week range 29.14–56.18 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.5 bn USD (+2.3% YoY), net income of 360.7 m USD (−16.1% YoY), diluted EPS 0.69 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 65.8
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 31.30 – 35.81
- above the upper band · %B 1.17 · band width 13.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 33.30 / 37.86
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.57 / 0.21
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +16.4% | −1.1% | +17.5 pp | — |
| 3 months | +9.5% | −0.5% | +9.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +12.5% | +4.4% | +8.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −26.9% | +12.3% | −39.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −31.0% | +13.5% | −44.6 pp | −1.9% |
| 3 years | −8.2% | +76.4% | −84.6 pp | −6.2% |
| 5 years | −16.9% | +63.7% | −80.6 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 27 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.5 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.5 bn | 4.4 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.9 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.9 bn |
| Gross profit | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn |
| SG&A | 852.3 m | 891.2 m | 886.2 m | 940.1 m | 922.5 m | 944.4 m | 941.2 m | 1.0 bn |
| Operating income | 324.6 m | 318.3 m | 249.1 m | 577.8 m | 342.7 m | 297.7 m | 233.4 m | 467.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 113.6 m | 120.1 m | 120.1 m | 122.1 m | 124.1 m | 127.8 m | 126.6 m | 130.8 m |
| Interest expense | 13.9 m | 17.2 m | 19.6 m | 18.0 m | 14.7 m | 16.9 m | 19.1 m | 17.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 310.7 m | 301.1 m | 229.5 m | 559.8 m | 328.0 m | 280.9 m | 214.3 m | 450.0 m |
| Income tax | 69.3 m | 64.7 m | 50.1 m | 129.8 m | 68.8 m | 53.5 m | 49.8 m | 89.3 m |
| Net income | 241.5 m | 236.4 m | 179.4 m | 430.0 m | 259.3 m | 1.1 bn | 164.5 m | 360.7 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.45 | 0.44 ≈ | 0.34 | 0.81 | 0.49 | 2.07 ≈ | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Operating cash flow | 86.3 m ≈ | 517.2 m | 216.8 m | 785.8 m ≈ | 307.9 m ≈ | 324.8 m | 91.1 m | 562.0 m ≈ |
| Capex | 188.2 m ≈ | 246.0 m | 141.3 m | 210.4 m ≈ | 277.6 m ≈ | 265.6 m | 202.6 m | 233.1 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 117.8 m | 117.3 m | 122.4 m | 122.0 m | 121.9 m | 121.4 m | 126.4 m | 125.6 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 151.3 m | 154.0 m | 95.1 m | 72.8 m | 74.0 m ≈ | 117.3 m | 118.0 m | 135.6 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 81 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 3.3, median 4.9, max 32.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.9 bn | 8.4 bn | 10.6 bn | 12.7 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.6 bn | 14.9 bn | 15.5 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +9.0% | +5.6% | +27.2% | +19.9% | +11.6% | +2.5% | +2.2% | +4.3% |
| Net income | 532.4 m | 562.4 m | 749.0 m | 997.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Net income YoY | +26.0% | +5.6% | +33.2% | +33.1% | +9.2% | +1.7% | −0.5% | −0.5% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.31 | 4.66 | 6.38 | 8.61 | 1.94 | 2.02 | 2.04 | 2.06 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +30.6% | +8.1% | +36.9% | +35.0% | −77.5% | +4.1% | +1.0% | +1.0% |
| net % | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% |
| Free cash flow | 415.9 m | 594.3 m | 1.1 bn | 510.3 m | 583.6 m | 580.2 m | 636.8 m | 740.5 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 27 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 194.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.6 bn USD
- Equity
- 2.6 bn USD
- Total assets
- 10.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.68x
- Current ratio
- 1.34x
- ROE
- 45.2%
- ROA
- 10.6%
- FCF margin
- 4.8%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.6 bn | 12.7 bn | 14.2 bn | 14.6 bn | 14.9 bn | 15.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.9 bn | 8.3 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.3 bn | 9.5 bn | 9.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 3.8 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 996.9 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 217.1 m | 270.2 m | 343.1 m | 393.0 m | 447.2 m | 494.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 1.9 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 28.8 m | 26.6 m | 30.6 m | 46.5 m | 54.6 m | 69.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 968.1 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 219.2 m | 283.0 m | 315.6 m | 325.2 m | 311.7 m | 302.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 749.0 m | 997.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 6.38 | 8.61 | 1.94 | 2.02 | 2.04 | 2.06 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 117.4 m | 115.8 m | 560.7 m | 548.7 m | 539.7 m | 532.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 1.50 | 2.08 | 0.74 | 0.82 | 0.88 | 0.92 | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.3 bn | 878.0 m | 202.5 m | 397.1 m | 251.5 m | 194.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 1.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 10.3 m | 32.4 m | 230.2 m | 246.4 m | 246.4 m | 346.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 23.1 m | 23.1 m | 23.1 m | 23.1 m | 52.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Aug 2026verified |
| Total assets | 7.0 bn | 7.8 bn | 8.5 bn | 9.2 bn | 9.8 bn | 10.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 976.1 m | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 984.3 m | 986.4 m | 1.2 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 5.1 bn | 5.8 bn | 6.4 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.5 bn | 8.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.9 bn † | 2.0 bn † | 2.0 bn † | 2.1 bn † | 2.3 bn † | 2.6 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.4 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 294.0 m | 628.4 m | 773.4 m | 753.9 m | 784.0 m | 894.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.1 bn ≈ | 510.3 m ≈ | 583.6 m ≈ | 580.2 m ≈ | 636.8 m ≈ | 740.5 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -292.2 m | -627.3 m | -1.1 bn | -653.1 m | -643.9 m | -778.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 155.2 m | -975.1 m | -938.8 m | -486.4 m | -922.5 m | -914.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 174.7 m | 239.0 m | 409.6 m | 449.6 m | 472.5 m | 487.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 343.0 m | 798.9 m | 700.1 m | 594.4 m | 560.6 m | 361.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 19 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 54 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 19.1 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet81
- Growth19
- Quality67
- Returns42
- Valuation50
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 5.62 – 16.26 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)5.62 – 10.89 (Mid 7.64)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 360.8 m USD · terminal value share of EV 74%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · not enough peers
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · not enough peers
- Dividend discount (DDM)12.09 – 16.26 (Mid 13.87)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 54/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 25.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.9% | 80 (vs peers) | 6% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 16.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 3.0% | 25 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.0% | 13 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 85 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 19.8x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 44 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 10.3x | 90 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 11.3x | 33 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 1.6% | 20 (on a fixed band) | 8% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 4.9% | 70 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 161.3% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 4% |
Score groups
- Balance sheet81/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth19/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality67/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns42/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
TRACTOR SUPPLY CO /DE/ (TSCO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-27.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 15.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 4.3%; net margin 11.9%; ROE 73.4%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.
The estimated value range is 8.85–13.58 USD per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 10.75 USD, the price of 36.58 USD leaves a potential of -70.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -240.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 54/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 25.1%
- Net margin: 11.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.0x
- Interest coverage: 19.8x
- P/E (TTM): 10.3x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 4.9%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 16.3%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 3.0%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 2.0%
- FCF yield: 1.6%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 161.3%
- The price is above the estimated value range
- The valuation methods diverge
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply (SIC 5200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | 87.8 bn | 33.4 | 63.7% | 10.7% | +2.1% | +6% / +30% |
| FASTFastenal Co | 61.0 bn | 43.1 | 35.3% | 15.6% | +8.7% | +32% / +77% |
| TSCOTractor Supply Co | 19.1 bn | 10.3 | 73.4% | 11.9% | +4.3% | −31% / −8% |
| GRWGGrowgeneration Corp. | 89.6 m | — | -17.1% | -10.1% | −14.4% | −2% / −43% |
| IPWiPower Inc. | 1.9 m | — | -66.0% | -58.2% | −68.4% | −100% / −100% |
| ZKHZKH Group Limited | — | — | -4.6% | -1.6% | +2.6% | −59% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TSCO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 21.61 Total return -39% · Per year -39% | 38.23 Total return 7% · Per year 7% | 57.63 Total return 61% · Per year 61% |
| 3 years | 20.35 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 40.56 Total return 19% · Per year 6% | 67.22 Total return 94% · Per year 25% |
| 5 years | 19.16 Total return -38% · Per year -9% | 43.04 Total return 32% · Per year 6% | 78.42 Total return 133% · Per year 18% |
- Exit P/E± 10.14
- Net margin± 7.10
- Annual revenue growth± 5.91
- Annual dilution± 0.60
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tractor Supply Company is the largest rural lifestyle retailer in the United States, with 2,602 stores at the end of fiscal 2025 and net sales of $15.52 billion that year 1. In the third quarter of 2026 net sales rose 5.1% to $3.91 billion, but gross margin and profit fell, and management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leadership in the rural lifestyle retail niche, with a large store network across most states, gives an advantage that is hard to replicate 1.
- Owned brands and exclusive product categories contribute a meaningful share of sales and support destination positioning 1.
- The loyalty program and omnichannel channels support customer relationships and enable buy online, pickup in store 1.
Weaknesses
- Operating margins fell in 2026 and SG&A rose as a share of sales, showing sensitivity to sales deleverage 3.
- Comparable sales were weak in big-ticket and companion animal categories, limiting organic growth 23.
- The business is seasonal, and unusual weather can shift sales and profit between quarters 2.
Opportunities
Risks
- Weak comparable store saleshigh
If sales at existing stores keep declining, organic growth could be limited and new store openings could become the main source of growth 21.
- Pressure on marginshigh
Transportation, fuel costs and price investments could keep gross margin below prior levels unless offset by productivity gains 3.
- Tariff and supply chain risksmedium
Changes in trade policy and tariffs could raise purchasing costs, although the company says it has found alternative sources 31.
- Acquisition integration risksmedium
Integrating Allivet and VIP Petcare could bring extra costs and impairment if expected results do not materialize 12.
- Weather and climatelow
Extreme weather could affect demand, inventory and stores, and the impact depends on duration and severity 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the improving trend seen in the third quarter holds, comparable sales could return to positive territory and guidance could be met 3.
- A leading position in the rural niche and owned brands could support stable margins over the long term 1.
- Digital growth and an efficient distribution network could open new sources of revenue 31.
What would break the thesis
- If comparable sales stay negative, growth would depend almost entirely on new stores, which could prove insufficient 2.
- Margin pressure from transportation and price investments could keep weighing on profitability 3.
- Integrating acquisitions and reorganizing the store network could generate unforeseen costs 12.
What to watch
- Fourth quarter results and delivery against the fiscal 2026 outlookQ4 2026
- Trend in comparable store sales in the companion animal category2027
- Opening of the Nampa distribution center and its effect on costsQ4 2026
- Annual 10-K for fiscal 2026 and margin trendsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The multi-year strategy relies on store expansion, digitization and selective acquisitions, such as Allivet, an online pet pharmacy bought for $135.0 million at the end of 2024 1. The company aims to serve customers better through localized assortments and Final Mile delivery, but growth depends on finding suitable sites and integrating new units 1.
In the third quarter of 2026 the company opened 23 Tractor Supply stores and closed 74 Petsense stores, and a new distribution center in Nampa, Idaho is expected to begin operations in the fourth quarter of 2026 31. Management, led by the President and Chief Executive Officer, has stressed restoring operating margins and accelerating comparable store sales growth 3.
Segments
Livestock, Equine & Agriculture
This category was 27% of net sales in fiscal 2025, the largest share, and includes livestock and equine feed, equipment, sprayers and poultry products 1. Results in the third quarter of 2026 were supported by solid performance in equine, livestock and related categories 3.
Market context
The company operates in consumer retail, competing with general merchandise retailers, home centers, pet retailers, independent farm stores and online retailers 1. Its position rests on a presence in smaller towns and rural communities, where few competitors offer a comparable assortment 1.
Demand depends on weather, farming cycles and discretionary spending, and recent results show comparable sales can fall when spending on big-ticket items is reduced 23. If macroeconomic pressures persist, margins could remain below historical levels 3.
Trends
- Pressure on comparable store salesheadwind
Comparable store sales declined in the second quarter of 2026, with weakness in big-ticket and discretionary categories 2. If this trend persists, organic growth could stay limited.
- Transportation and fuel costsheadwind
In the third quarter of 2026 higher transportation and fuel costs contributed to lower gross margin, alongside investments in price-value positioning 3. Pressure could continue if logistics costs remain high.
- Digital and omnichannel salesmixed
Digital sales grew at a double-digit rate in the third quarter of 2026, and integration of stores with online platforms supports orders 31. This trend could support growth if it remains profitable.
Competitive position
The company faces competition from general merchandise retailers, home center retailers, pet specialty retailers, regional farm store chains, farm cooperatives and internet retailers 1. Competition for customers, merchandise, locations and team members could limit growth and margins 1.
In pet, competition from specialty retailers and online pet pharmacies has directly pressured sales, and the Allivet acquisition is part of the company's response 13. The company maintains an edge through its extensive store network and owned brands, which represented 30% of sales in 2025 1.
- Home center retailers
Home improvement and garden retailers competing for tools, lawn and garden assortment, named generically in the 10-K.
- General merchandise retailers
General merchandise retailers selling similar household and recreation products, named as rivals in the 10-K.
- Pet specialty and online pet pharmacies
Pet specialty retailers and online pet pharmacies competing in the companion animal segment.
- Regional farm store chains and cooperatives
Regional farm store chains and farm cooperatives competing directly in rural communities.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
- Jim Cramer Notes That Tractor Supply Just Cannot Seem To LiftYahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
- How Is Tractor Supply's Stock Performance Compared to Other Specialty Retail Stocks?Yahoo Finance — News · 14 Sept 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 14 Sept 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 05 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report05 Nov 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report25 Aug 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report28 May 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report21 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report (amendment)15 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-27 · SEC / Tractor Supply Company · 19 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-27 · SEC / Tractor Supply Company · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Tractor Supply Company · 22 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.