olivLaw · US equity research
ZKH Group Limited ZKH
Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply · SIC 5200 · Vertical: Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply (SIC 5200)
ZKH Group Limited is an MRO procurement platform built on a product-led, agentic AI-driven approach, serving customers mainly in China and increasingly abroad. In 2025 it served over 155000 customers, while net revenues grew only slightly, gross margin narrowed and the net loss continued.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, ZKH Group Limited (ZKH) stock was 1.34 USD (−10.67% on the day), with beta 0.28, 52-week range 1.34–3.79 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 23.4
- oversold (≤ 30)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.40 – 2.12
- below the lower band · %B -0.09 · band width 40.7%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 2.41 / 2.89
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.26 / -0.26
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −45.7% | −1.1% | −44.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −53.1% | −0.5% | −52.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −55.3% | +4.4% | −59.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | −63.6% | +12.3% | −75.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −52.5% | +13.5% | −66.0 pp | −1.9% |
| 3 years | unavailable | +76.4% | unavailable | −9.9% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +63.7% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
the price (USD) and the reports are in different currencies
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +8.6% | +4.9% | +0.5% | +2.6% |
| Net income | -1.1 bn | -735.7 m | -304.3 m | -268.0 m | -139.7 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.20 | -0.94 | -0.63 | -0.05 | -0.02 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -14.7% | -8.8% | -3.5% | -3.1% | -1.6% |
| Free cash flow | -1.5 bn | -541.3 m | -618.4 m | 149.9 m | -44.3 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.0 bn CNY
- Financial debt
- 282.7 m CNY
- Net debt
- -747.9 m CNY
- Equity
- 2.9 bn CNY
- Total assets
- 6.5 bn CNY
- Debt / equity
- 0.10x
- Current ratio
- 1.79x
- ROE
- -4.6%
- ROA
- -2.1%
- FCF margin
- -0.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (CNY)
Margins
Income statement · CNY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.7 bn | 8.3 bn | 8.7 bn | 8.8 bn | 9.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 6.6 bn | 7.0 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.3 bn | 7.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.0 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026derived |
| Research & development | 256.4 m | 240.5 m | 175.9 m | 169.5 m | 165.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | -1.1 bn | -685.7 m | -398.7 m | -338.8 m | -213.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 53.0 m | 76.1 m | 73.5 m | 54.8 m | 48.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.1 bn ≈ | -609.6 m ≈ | -325.3 m ≈ | -284.0 m ≈ | -165.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 10.6 m | 94.2 m | 19.3 m | 19.0 m | 11.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -1.1 bn | -731.6 m | -304.7 m | -267.0 m | -139.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 200.0 k | -471.0 k | 195.0 k | 1.0 m | 689.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.1 bn | -735.7 m | -304.3 m | -268.0 m | -139.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.20 | -0.94 | -0.63 | -0.05 | -0.02 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 5.7 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · CNY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 3.1 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | — | 656.0 m | 669.0 m | 625.4 m | 669.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | — | 6.3 bn | 7.0 bn | 6.2 bn | 6.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | — | 166.7 m | 145.3 m | 183.6 m | 186.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | — | 30.8 m | 30.8 m | 30.8 m | 30.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 24.1 m | 20.1 m | 15.9 m | 21.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | — | 6.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 6.6 bn | 6.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | — | 2.6 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 250.0 m | 585.0 m | 311.0 m | 240.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 38.9 m | 42.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | — | 3.5 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | — | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.5 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -2.8 bn | -4.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | — | — | 5.6 bn | 5.6 bn | — | SEC (XBRL)· 17 Apr 2025verified |
Cash flow · CNY
| Line | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | -1.4 bn | -504.2 m | -567.9 m | 229.1 m | 8.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 145.2 m | 37.0 m | 50.5 m | 79.2 m | 53.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -1.5 bn ≈ | -541.3 m ≈ | -618.4 m ≈ | 149.9 m ≈ | -44.3 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -94.4 m | -37.0 m | -908.3 m | 276.1 m | -324.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 174.6 m | 1.3 bn | 715.7 m | -254.2 m | -104.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | — | — | — | 40.8 m | 41.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 24 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Price and reporting are in different currencies; market indicators are unavailable.
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
35% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation assumptions for the reporting currency
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 6.5%
- Equity risk premium
- 6.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 12.5%
- Terminal growth
- 3.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | -8.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 29% |
| Net margin · Quality | -1.6% | 40 (vs peers) | 18% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 2.6% | 22 (on a fixed band) | 24% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -18.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 18% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 83 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet33/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial22/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality15/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
ZKH Group Limited (ZKH). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 9.0 bn CNY in 2025; YoY growth 2.6%; net margin -1.6%; ROE -4.6%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 35.4% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Current ratio: 1.8x
What contradicts it
- ROIC: -8.5%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 2.6%
- Interest coverage: -18.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Retail-Building Materials, Hardware, Garden Supply (SIC 5200) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 5 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHWThe Sherwin-Williams Company | 87.8 bn | 33.4 | 63.7% | 10.7% | +2.1% | +6% / +30% |
| FASTFastenal Co | 61.0 bn | 43.1 | 35.3% | 15.6% | +8.7% | +32% / +77% |
| TSCOTractor Supply Co | 19.1 bn | 10.3 | 73.4% | 11.9% | +4.3% | −33% / −10% |
| GRWGGrowgeneration Corp. | 89.6 m | — | -17.1% | -10.1% | −14.4% | −2% / −43% |
| IPWiPower Inc. | 1.9 m | — | -66.0% | -58.2% | −68.4% | −100% / −100% |
| ZKHZKH Group Limited | — | — | -4.6% | -1.6% | +2.6% | −52% / unavailable |
1- and 3-year price returns: for ZKH from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (21 Aug 2026), 6-K (20 Jul 2026), 6-K (15 Jun 2026), 6-K (21 May 2026).
In brief
ZKH Group Limited is an MRO procurement platform built on a product-led, agentic AI-driven approach, serving customers mainly in China and increasingly abroad. In 2025 it served over 155000 customers, while net revenues grew only slightly, gross margin narrowed and the net loss continued.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has a very broad MRO product catalogue, its own fulfillment network and internally developed AI tools that support stable relationships with large customers.
- The recurring customer base is loyal, and the number of high-spending customers has grown steadily in recent years, providing a more predictable revenue base.
- The dual model, with the ZKH platform for enterprises and the GBB platform for small retailers, allows diversification of customers and demand risk.
Weaknesses
- Gross margin declined in 2025, and the company still reports operating and net losses, which limits its capacity to self-fund growth.
- Revenue growth has been small relative to customer growth, suggesting a lower average order value.
- The US and other international operations are at an early stage and small in scale, making a quick path to profitability there difficult.
Opportunities
- Expansion toward Chinese manufacturers abroad and into developed markets could open new revenue sources.
- Growing the marketplace share, where revenue is recognized on a net basis, could improve the overall gross margin.
- Agentic AI tools could be extended to new product categories and international customers, lowering processing costs.
Threats
- Trade tensions and tariffs between countries could reduce transaction volumes and demand for industrial products.
- Competition from large platforms and traditional distributors could press prices and margins.
- Chinese regulation and oversight of issuers listed abroad could affect access to capital and the continuity of the listing.
Risks
- Customer retention and experiencehigh
If the company fails to retain existing customers and attract new ones, revenue could decline and operating results could be significantly affected.
- Expansion into new product categoriesmedium
Entry into new categories can lead to inventory build-up, higher returns and lower margins if demand is misjudged.
- Chinese regulationhigh
Regulatory changes and government oversight of companies listed abroad could limit the ability to offer securities to foreign investors.
- Auditor inspection accesshigh
If inspections of the auditor cannot be completed fully, the ADSs could be prohibited from trading in the United States, with a negative effect on investment value.
- Cash flow from Chinese subsidiariesmedium
Restrictions on transferring funds out of China could affect the financing of operations and expansion.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue keeps growing and gross margin stabilizes, the company could narrow its losses and move closer to operating profitability.
- International expansion and marketplace growth could improve the revenue mix and diversify geographic risk.
- If agentic AI tools translate into lower costs and better retention, the competitive advantage could become more durable.
What would break the thesis
- Revenue growth has been nearly flat in recent years and GMV has declined, which could indicate weaker demand than expected.
- Net losses persist, and if gross margin keeps contracting, financing growth could become more difficult.
- Regulatory and audit risks, combined with trade tensions, could reduce the value of the ADSs.
What to watch
- Trend in gross margin and net loss by quarterQ1 2027
- Growth pace of GMV and the number of high-spending customers2027
- Results of the US operation and of the services for Chinese companies abroad2027
- Changes in the annual report on audit access and inspectionsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 24 Apr 2026; since then the company filed 6-K (21 Aug 2026), 6-K (20 Jul 2026), 6-K (15 Jun 2026), 6-K (21 May 2026).
The business
ZKH Group Limited operates mainly through ZKH Industrial Supply, started in 2014, and offers one-stop MRO procurement solutions through two online platforms in China: the ZKH platform for large and mid-sized enterprises, and the GBB platform for retailers and micro businesses. It runs both a product sales model and a marketplace model, in which suppliers pay commissions. In 2025 the ZKH platform generated 89.8% of GMV and GBB 10.2%, according to the 20-F for fiscal 2025. The company listed its ADSs on NYSE in December 2023 under the symbol ZKH.
The delivery infrastructure included 30 distribution centers, 107 transit warehouses and over 5,600 EVM smart vending machines at 31 December 2025, with next-business-day delivery for some orders. The catalogue exceeds 23.2 million SKUs, sourced from over 19,000 suppliers, and the company reports a 96.6% retention rate for its top 500 customers by GMV in 2025.
The company has extended its international presence: in the US through its subsidiary NorthSky Supply, launched in December 2024, and for Chinese companies moving production abroad, with a fulfillment network covering 17 countries as of 31 March 2026. These efforts remain small relative to the China base, and revenue is still concentrated in the domestic market.
Segments
ZKH platform (enterprises)
The ZKH platform serves large, mid-sized and small enterprises with complex procurement processes. It generated 89.8% of GMV in 2025 and contributes the majority of sales, including through the marketplace model, where commission revenue is recognized on a net basis.
GBB platform (retailers and micro businesses)
The GBB platform serves retailers and micro businesses that pay in cash and have no credit term. It generated 10.2% of GMV in 2025, with a lower gross margin than the ZKH platform but a positive effect on cash flow, according to the report.
International operations
International operations include services for Chinese companies in Southeast Asia, South America, Africa and the Middle East, and a localized US operation through NorthSky Supply, with over one thousand SKUs as of 31 March 2026, still at an early stage.
Market context
The China MRO procurement market is fragmented, and industrial buyers often purchase long-tail products in small quantities from many suppliers using different protocols. The growing number of Chinese manufacturers expanding globally increases demand for scalable procurement solutions, which the company sees as an opportunity, although its revenue grew only slightly in 2025.
Customer growth and the number of high-spending customers are key drivers, but GMV has declined in recent years, showing demand sensitivity to the economic environment. If the pace of digitalization of industrial procurement stays slow, the company's growth could remain limited.
Trends
- Adoption of agentic AItailwind
The company argues that agentic AI tools can reduce procurement costs and automate workflows, which could raise efficiency and transaction volume on its platform.
- Chinese manufacturers expanding abroadtailwind
Chinese companies expanding production overseas need local MRO supply, which opens demand for the company's international services.
- Trade tensions and tariffsheadwind
The tariff conflict between the United States and other countries could weigh on global economic conditions, reducing trading volume and price stability for MRO products on the platform.
- Chinese regulation and issuer oversightmixed
Policy changes in China and controls over offerings abroad could limit the company's ability to raise capital or sustain its listing, with effects on investment value.
Competitive position
The MRO market is contested by traditional offline distributors, online B2B platforms and general marketplaces. The company differentiates through a broad catalogue, its own logistics and AI tools, but price and service competition could press margins, especially in low-value product segments.
In the US market, NorthSky Supply competes with industrial e-commerce platforms and large marketplaces that have access to more customers and wider logistics. The company relies on competitive pricing and private labels, but its scale remains small.
- Traditional offline MRO distributors
Local and regional distributors selling MRO products through physical channels and direct relationships with industrial customers.
- Online B2B industrial platforms in China
Chinese industrial e-commerce platforms competing on catalogue, price and delivery for the same enterprise customers.
- General e-commerce marketplaces
Large online sales platforms that also offer industrial products, including through third-party sellers, in the US and internationally.
- Specialized protective equipment and tool suppliers
Specialized manufacturers and distributors that sell directly to customers and may compete on private brands and final price.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 Aug 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Jul 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)15 Jun 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)21 May 2026
- Annual report (foreign issuer)24 Apr 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)19 Mar 2026
- Current report (foreign issuer)20 Nov 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)22 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)04 Aug 2025
- Current report (foreign issuer)13 Jun 2025
Sources
- [1] Form 20-F, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / ZKH Group Limited · 24 Apr 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.