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olivLaw · US equity research

VolitionRx Limited VNRX

In Vitro & In Vivo Diagnostic Substances · SIC 2835 · Vertical: In Vitro & In Vivo Diagnostic Substances (SIC 2835)

0.20USD+6.84% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

VolitionRx is a multi-national epigenetics company developing simple, easy-to-use blood tests for early detection and monitoring of cancer and sepsis. The company is moving from research toward commercialization, with revenue still very small relative to losses, and is currently focused on licensing deals with diagnostic partners. Its accumulated deficit exceeds 252.9 million USD.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, VolitionRx Limited (VNRX) stock was 0.20 USD (+6.84% on the day), with market capitalisation 2.8 m USD, beta 0.65, 52-week range 0.17–8.60 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 398.7 k USD (−2.0% YoY), net income of -7.3 m USD, diluted EPS -0.85 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
2.8 m USD
shares as of 11 Aug 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
Diluted EPS TTM -1.92 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
-946.75%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
Beta (2y)
0.65
Volatility (1y) 111%
52-week range
0.178.60

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
43.6
weak (30–45)
Bollinger (20, 2)
0.16 – 0.22
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.72 · band width 34.6%
SMA 50 / 200
0.26 / 2.29
downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
MACD (12, 26, 9)
-0.02 / -0.04
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month−11.7%−1.1%−10.6 pp—
3 months−74.6%−0.5%−74.2 pp—
6 months−91.8%+4.4%−96.2 pp—
Year to date−96.1%+12.3%−108.4 pp—
1 year−97.7%+13.5%−111.3 pp−21.1%
3 years−98.7%+76.4%−175.2 pp−44.4%
5 years−99.7%+63.7%−163.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−98.0%
05 Nov 2025 → 19 Oct 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−99.8%
15 Nov 2021 → 19 Oct 2026
Compound annual growth (5y)
−69.0%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
398.7 k USD
−2.0% YoY
Net income
-7.3 m USD
unavailable YoY
Diluted EPS
-0.85
unavailable YoY
net / operating
-1,837.7% / -1,042.5%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue474.5 k191.7 k246.4 k406.7 k627.3 k447.0 k985.1 k398.7 k
Research & development3.5 m2.6 m2.6 m2.7 m2.3 m2.5 m2.9 m1.8 m
Operating income-5.9 m-5.8 m-5.5 m-6.3 m-5.1 m-4.8 m-5.3 m-4.2 m
Depreciation & amortisation285.0 k ≈295.6 k251.9 k252.7 k ≈248.3 k ≈230.8 k207.4 k188.0 k ≈
Interest expense——96.7 k123.4 k——125.8 k740.4 k
Net income-5.8 m-5.8 m-5.4 m-6.3 m-5.4 m-6.3 m-6.7 m-7.3 m
Diluted EPS-0.07-0.06 ≈-1.12-1.22-0.05-0.05 ≈-0.97-0.85
Operating cash flow-5.4 m ≈-5.4 m-4.3 m-6.3 m ≈-3.6 m ≈-5.5 m-5.3 m-5.2 m ≈
Capex136.7 k ≈72.6 k1.8 k76.8 k ≈0 ≈11.0 k9.2 k1.8 k ≈
Share repurchases0 ≈0——————

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenueunavailable17.1 k13.4 k90.0 k306.4 k775.3 k1.2 m1.7 m
Revenue YoYunavailableunavailable−21.4%+570.3%+240.3%+153.0%+59.1%+40.0%
Net income-18.0 m-16.1 m-20.4 m-27.0 m-30.6 m-35.7 m-27.0 m-23.4 m
Net income YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
Diluted EPSunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable-0.50-0.31unavailable
Diluted EPS YoYunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailableunavailable
net %unavailable-94,168.5%-151,859.6%-29,977.0%-9,986.7%-4,601.7%-2,186.3%-1,352.2%
Free cash flow-15.0 m-13.3 m-18.4 m-21.8 m-16.8 m-19.1 m-26.2 m-19.8 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
1.1 m USD
Financial debt
6.7 m USD
Net debt
5.6 m USD
Equity
-35.6 m USD
Total assets
6.9 m USD
Debt / equity
unavailable
Current ratio
0.17x
ROE
unavailable
ROA
-286.6%
FCF margin
-1,144.7%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
775.3 k
2024
1.2 m
2025
1.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Research & development
2023
19.6 m
2024
14.4 m
2025
10.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Operating income
2023
-36.0 m
2024
-27.0 m
2025
-21.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.2 m
2024
1.1 m
2025
983.7 k

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
-34.8 m ≈
2024
-25.9 m ≈
2025
-20.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Mar 2022verified

Net income
2023
-35.7 m
2024
-27.0 m
2025
-23.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
-0.50
2024
-0.31
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2025verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
71.2 m
2024
86.5 m
2025
106.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
20.7 m
2024
3.3 m
2025
1.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Receivables
2023
242.6 k
2024
110.6 k
2025
317.8 k

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current assets
2023
21.9 m
2024
4.1 m
2025
2.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
5.5 m
2024
4.4 m
2025
4.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
23.9 k
2024
313.7 k
2025
316.7 k

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total assets
2023
28.0 m
2024
9.4 m
2025
6.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
3.2 m
2024
2.8 m
2025
2.9 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
1.2 m
2024
860.2 k
2025
890.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
3.6 m
2024
4.0 m
2025
5.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
8.9 m
2024
7.8 m
2025
12.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Total liabilities
2023
36.7 m
2024
35.5 m
2025
42.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Equity
2023
-8.7 m
2024
-26.1 m
2025
-35.6 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
-18.1 m
2024
-25.9 m
2025
-19.7 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Capex
2023
1.1 m
2024
277.5 k
2025
89.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-19.1 m ≈
2024
-26.2 m ≈
2025
-19.8 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-1.1 m
2024
-573.9 k
2025
-89.6 k

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
29.0 m
2024
8.7 m
2025
17.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
31.8 k
2024
0
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 31 Mar 2025verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
40.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
78.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
164.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 3Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 3Y
unavailable
input data missing
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
input data missing
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
-754.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
-790.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
-1,043.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-796.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
ROA
-301.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
unavailable
equity is negative: buybacks shrink the invested capital and ROIC would come out large without meaning anything
ROCE
unavailable
insufficient data
Payout ratio (EPS)
unavailable
input data missing
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
4.3 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
Debt / equity
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Interest coverage
unavailable
the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.2x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
-19.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
22.0 k USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-19.6 m USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
unavailable
insufficient data
Cash conversion
unavailable
insufficient data

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
35 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days inventory outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion cycle
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
2.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
7.0 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
unavailable
insufficient data
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
Earnings yield
-946.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
P/S
1.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/EBIT
unavailable
insufficient data
EV/Sales
2.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-706.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Insufficient data
What is missing
  • indicators available: 4 of at least 6
  • score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%
  • valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

0.20 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 2.8 m USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
2.8 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
unavailable
insufficient data
P/B
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
EV/EBITDA
unavailable
insufficient data
ROE
unavailable
equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
Net margin
-1,043.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
40.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
unavailable
no dividend in the structured statements; a missing line is not a confirmed zero

Coverage and freshness

27/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 11 Aug 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 13 Aug 2026
verified 1604derived 137

Score by group

27% · Insufficient data

Estimated value range

unavailable — no valuation method could be computed

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
  • Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption

no valuation method could be computed

Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: In Vitro & In Vivo Diagnostic Substances (SIC 2835)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Insufficient data

Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Net margin · Quality-1,043.1%27 (vs peers)23%
FCF conversion · Qualityunavailableunavailable—
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth78.0%100 (on a fixed band)31%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growthunavailableunavailable—
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Interest coverage · Balance sheetunavailableunavailable—
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.3x0 (on a fixed band)15%
P/E (TTM) · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
EV/EBITDA · Valuationunavailableunavailable—
FCF yield · Valuation-706.8%0 (on a fixed band)31%
Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—
Payout ratio (FCF) · Returnsunavailableunavailable—

Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.

Score groups

  • Balance sheet· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
  • Quality· partial27/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
  • Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value

A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.

Memo

VolitionRx Limited (VNRX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 1.7 m USD in 2025; YoY growth 40.0%; net margin -1,043.1%.

Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.

Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 4 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 27.1% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: 78.0%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: -1,043.1%
  • Current ratio: 0.3x
  • FCF yield: -706.8%

Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, Interest coverage, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).

Versus the vertical median

In Vitro & In Vivo Diagnostic Substances (SIC 2835) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 17 companies

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
—
vertical median 36.1x
EV/EBITDA
—
vertical median 15.4x
P/S
1.1x
vertical median 10.4x
below median (−89.2%)
P/B
—
vertical median 2.2x
ROE
—
vertical median -32.5%
Net margin
-1,043.1%
vertical median -38.4%
below median
EBIT margin
-790.2%
vertical median -34.4%
below median
Revenue YoY
40.0%
vertical median -0.5%
above median
Net debt/EBITDA
—
vertical median 0.1x
Dividend yield
—
vertical median —

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
IDXXIdexx Laboratories Inc55.0 bn47.168.9%25.4%+10.4%−7% / +50%
LNTHLantheus Holdings, Inc.6.6 bn24.522.2%17.7%+0.5%+72% / +41%
NEOGNeogen Corporation2.7 bn—-2.7%-6.3%−2.7%+108% / −27%
TRIBTrinity Biotech PLC2.4 bn——-51.6%+8.3%−80% / −91%
CLDXCelldex Therapeutics, Inc.2.4 bn—-43.9%-190,220.9%−78.0%+11% / −1%
NTLAIntellia Therapeutics, Inc.1.7 bn—-6,424.8%-672.2%+16.9%+37% / −58%
QDELQuidelortho Corp984.6 m—-19.3%-14.2%−1.9%−48% / −79%
ACHVAchieve Life Sciences, Inc.718.3 m—-845.0%—unavailable+43% / +21%
MYGNMyriad Genetics, Inc.575.8 m—-32.5%-14.0%−1.6%−21% / −68%
TKNOAlpha Teknova, Inc.395.7 m—-24.2%-38.4%+7.4%+57% / +261%
ICCCImmuCell Corporation94.2 m138.22.6%2.6%+4.3%+114% / +128%
IMDXInsight Molecular Diagnostics Inc.86.7 m——-2,955.6%+115.6%−57% / −30%
BMRABiomerica, Inc.8.0 m—-113.8%-115.5%−16.2%−27% / −77%
CDIOCardio Diagnostics Holdings, Inc.4.9 m—-75.4%-44,771.8%−57.5%−43% / −97%
QCLSQ/C Technologies, Inc.3.2 m—-155.0%—−5.3%−89% / −100%
VNRXVolitionRx Limited2.8 m——-1,043.1%+40.0%−98% / −99%
VRAXVirax Biolabs Group Ltd695.1 k—-109.6%-95,739.2%−96.0%−88% / −98%
NNNNAnbio Biotechnology—25.027.0%74.1%+5.6%−84% / unavailable

1- and 3-year price returns: for VNRX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
3 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
5 years
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
insufficient data
Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable
What moves the 3-year price the most

    AI analysis

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    In brief

    VolitionRx is a multi-national epigenetics company developing simple, easy-to-use blood tests for early detection and monitoring of cancer and sepsis. The company is moving from research toward commercialization, with revenue still very small relative to losses, and is currently focused on licensing deals with diagnostic partners. Its accumulated deficit exceeds 252.9 million USD 1.

    SWOT

    Strengths

    • The nucleosome-based platform is patented and platform-agnostic, and the company holds an extensive intellectual property portfolio 1.
    • The veterinary test is already commercialized in several countries through large distribution partners, which lowers market entry barriers 12.
    • Agreements with diagnostics partners bring existing expertise and networks, and the company is in several technology discussions 23.

    Weaknesses

    • Revenue remains small compared with expenses, and the company continues to report operating losses 13.
    • Cash was low at the end of fiscal 2025 and the company relies on equity sales and convertible notes for funding 1.
    • Auditors have raised substantial doubt about going concern, and identified internal control weaknesses have not yet been remediated 1.

    Opportunities

    • If licensing deals are signed, upfront payments and royalties could change the revenue profile 23.
    • Publication of the feline lymphoma study could unlock a significant contractual payment and widen the veterinary market 13.
    • Reimbursement for the lung cancer test could open routine clinical use in Europe 3.

    Threats

    • Larger competitors with greater resources could develop similar tests or occupy the targeted segments 1.
    • Delays in regulatory approvals or reimbursement could postpone expected human-market revenue 12.
    • Exchange listing risks and dilution from new share issuance could affect access to capital and share value 13.

    Risks

    • Going concernhigh

      Auditors have included an explanatory paragraph on the possibility that the company may not continue as a going concern, and lack of capital could force reduced or ceased operations 1.

    • Dependence on financinghigh

      The company relies on share issuances, convertible notes and licensing to cover expenses, and terms may be unfavorable 13.

    • Dilution from conversionmedium

      Holders of convertible notes can convert debt into shares at a discount to the trading price, which could substantially dilute existing shareholders 1.

    • Reimbursement and regulationmedium

      Changes in reimbursement policies or delays in approvals could limit sales of the tests in clinical markets 12.

    • Internal controls and listingmedium

      Identified weaknesses in internal controls and the risk of failing exchange continued-listing requirements could weigh on investor confidence 1.

    Investment thesis

    What would need to be true (bull case)

    • If licensing deals with diagnostics partners are concluded, revenue could grow through upfront payments, milestones and royalties without proportional production costs 23.
    • Revenue growth in the first half of 2026 and lower operating expenses suggest the cost reduction program could be working 3.
    • Publication of clinical studies for feline lymphoma and sepsis could unlock contractual payments and widen target markets 13.

    What would break the thesis

    • Operating losses remain large relative to revenue, and without new licensing deals the company could continue to depend on dilutive financing 13.
    • The auditors' going-concern warning suggests that the time available to build significant revenue could be limited 1.
    • The market estimates above 27 billion USD are internal and do not guarantee real access to these markets, especially under strong competition 3.

    What to watch

    • Signing of new licensing agreements with diagnostics companies and associated upfront payments2026
    • Peer-reviewed publication of the feline lymphoma study and the 5 million USD milestone payment2026
    • Development of cash on hand and the need for further financingnext 10-Q
    • Reimbursement decisions for the Nu.Q Lung Cancer test and the Nu.Q NETs reimbursement application2026

    Products, market & competition

    AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

    The business

    Volition develops a family of blood tests based on nucleosomes and transcription factors in circulating chromatin, with applications in cancer, NETosis-related diseases such as sepsis, and veterinary diagnostics 1. The company operates from Belgium, with a 17,000 square foot lab and a 10,000 square foot production facility in Gembloux, plus offices in California, London and Nevada, and has over 75 employees 1. Its business model relies on licensing, distribution rights and upfront or milestone payments rather than direct sales of tests 1.

    Segments

    Nu.Q NETs (sepsis)

    The Nu.Q NETs test carries a CE mark and is described as the only analytically validated assay for quantifying NETs, with first European sales recorded in the first quarter of 2025 12. The company is preparing a reimbursement application with a partner in 2026 2.

    Nu.Q Discover and Capture-Seq

    Nu.Q Discover offers nucleosome profiling services for drug developers, co-marketed with Hologic, while Capture-Seq and Capture-PCR isolate tumor-derived DNA fragments from plasma and are described in a published paper 13.

    Market context

    The company estimates that the total addressable markets for its technologies exceed 27 billion USD annually across its product pillars, though these are internal company estimates 3. The diagnostics market is described by the company as highly competitive and changing rapidly in technology 1.

    Demand for simple blood tests for cancer and sepsis could grow if the tests gain clinical validation and reimbursement, but the company acknowledges that market acceptance of its products is not yet proven at scale 12.

    Trends

    • Liquid biopsy adoptiontailwind

      Interest in blood tests that could replace invasive biopsies may support adoption of Volition technologies if clinical validation advances 1.

    • Regulatory and reimbursement requirementsheadwind

      Regulatory approvals and reimbursement decisions could delay launches in human markets and slow the shift from development to recurring revenue 12.

    • Partnerships with large diagnostics companiesmixed

      Agreements with companies such as Werfen, Hologic and Sysmex could expand market access, but terms are largely confidential and depend on ongoing negotiations 23.

    • Expansion to companion animalstailwind

      Veterinary tests are already commercialized, and extension to cats and other species could open an additional market for the Nu.Q Vet platform 13.

    Competitive position

    The company operates in a highly competitive diagnostics market where rivals have greater resources and experience, and where products may lose relevance or be replaced by new technologies 1. In veterinary diagnostics, distribution runs through large players such as Antech and IDEXX, which are both partners and potential competitors in the same segment 12.

    In human diagnostics, Volition works with companies in liquid biopsy and hemostasis to use their distribution networks, so commercial success also depends on these partners 23.

    • Antech Diagnostics (part of Mars Petcare)

      Distributor and license partner for the Nu.Q Vet Cancer Test, and also a strong player in veterinary diagnostics.

    • IDEXX Laboratories

      Global license partner for Nu.Q veterinary tests that launched its own commercial canine cancer test.

    • Hologic DiagenodeHOLX

      Co-marketing partner for Nu.Q Discover and also a large diagnostics company with its own development resources.

    • Werfen

      Partner under a research license and commercial option in antiphospholipid syndrome, active in hemostasis diagnostics.

    News & filings

    In the press

    No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

    SEC filings

    Sources

    1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / VolitionRx Limited · 31 Mar 2026
    2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / VolitionRx Limited · 13 Aug 2026
    3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / VolitionRx Limited · 13 Aug 2026

    Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.