olivLaw · US equity research
Vistra Corp. VST
Electric Services · SIC 4911 · Vertical: Electric Services (SIC 4911)
Vistra is one of the largest integrated power companies in the U.S., combining retail electricity and gas sales with a generation fleet of over 44,000 MW serving about 5 million customers in 18 states and DC. It matters now because data-centre demand and long-term contracts with hyperscalers could support future profitability if executed as planned.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, Vistra Corp. (VST) stock was 139.59 USD (+3.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 46.9 bn USD, P/E 23.0 on diluted EPS of 6.06 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.65%, beta 1.89, 52-week range 134.61–191.00 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 4.0 bn USD (−5.5% YoY), net income of 305.0 m USD (−6.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.76 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 44.5
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 131.37 – 167.09
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 23.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 145.12 / 153.24
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -2.43 / -0.76
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.3% | −2.0% | +1.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.5% | −2.2% | −0.4 pp | — |
| 6 months | −13.0% | +4.3% | −17.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.5% | +10.6% | −24.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −27.7% | +10.5% | −38.2 pp | +1.2% |
| 3 years | +298.9% | +73.7% | +225.3 pp | +47.3% |
| 5 years | +626.7% | +61.7% | +564.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6.3 bn | 4.0 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.3 bn | 5.0 bn | 4.6 bn | 5.6 bn | 4.0 bn |
| SG&A | 411.0 m | 464.0 m | 391.0 m | 419.0 m | 444.0 m | 460.0 m | 427.0 m | 392.0 m |
| Operating income | 2.6 bn | 599.0 m | -120.0 m | 515.0 m | 1.0 bn | 474.0 m | 1.5 bn | 553.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 466.0 m | 537.0 m | 522.0 m | 541.0 m | 460.0 m | 463.0 m | 484.0 m | 445.0 m |
| Interest expense | 332.0 m | 157.0 m | 319.0 m | 303.0 m | 286.0 m | 271.0 m | 263.0 m | 312.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | 2.4 bn | 451.0 m | -444.0 m | 403.0 m | 856.0 m | 308.0 m | 1.2 bn | 427.0 m |
| Income tax | 555.0 m | -39.0 m | -176.0 m | 76.0 m | 204.0 m | 75.0 m | 183.0 m | 122.0 m |
| Net income | 1.9 bn | 441.0 m | -268.0 m | 327.0 m | 652.0 m | 233.0 m | 1.0 bn | 305.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 5.25 | 1.26 ≈ | -0.93 | 0.81 | 1.75 | 0.68 ≈ | 2.87 | 0.76 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn | 599.0 m | 572.0 m ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 685.0 m ≈ | 430.0 m | 768.0 m | 690.0 m ≈ | 458.0 m ≈ | 836.0 m | 883.0 m | 689.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 80.0 m ≈ | 75.0 m | 83.0 m | 69.0 m ≈ | 77.0 m ≈ | 77.0 m | 77.0 m | 77.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 399.0 m ≈ | 245.0 m | 337.0 m | 252.0 m ≈ | 187.0 m ≈ | 252.0 m | 372.0 m | 337.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 55 percentile of its own 22-quarter history (min 7.0, median 20.6, max 69.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.1 bn | 11.8 bn | 11.4 bn | 12.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 14.8 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.7 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +68.4% | +29.1% | −3.1% | +5.5% | +13.7% | +7.7% | +16.5% | +3.0% |
| Net income | -54.0 m | 928.0 m | 636.0 m | -1.3 bn | -1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 944.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −31.5% | −300.3% | unavailable | unavailable | +78.1% | −64.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.11 | 1.86 | 1.30 | -2.69 | -3.26 | 3.58 | 7.00 | 2.18 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | −30.1% | −306.9% | unavailable | unavailable | +95.5% | −68.9% |
| net % | -0.6% | 7.9% | 5.6% | -10.5% | -8.9% | 10.1% | 15.4% | 5.3% |
| Free cash flow | 941.0 m | 2.0 bn | 2.1 bn | -1.2 bn | -816.0 m | 3.8 bn | 2.5 bn | 1.3 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 785.0 m USD
- Financial debt
- 18.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 18.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 5.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 41.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 3.69x
- Current ratio
- 0.78x
- ROE
- 17.7%
- ROA
- 2.4%
- FCF margin
- 7.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.4 bn | 12.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 14.8 bn | 17.2 bn | 17.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.5 bn | -1.5 bn | -1.2 bn | 2.7 bn | 4.1 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 3.3 bn ≈ | 238.0 m ≈ | 419.0 m ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 5.9 bn ≈ | 3.9 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 630.0 m | 384.0 m | 368.0 m | 740.0 m | 900.0 m | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 890.0 m | -1.7 bn | -1.6 bn | 2.0 bn | 3.5 bn | 1.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 266.0 m | -458.0 m | -350.0 m | 508.0 m | 655.0 m | 179.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 636.0 m | -1.3 bn | -1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.7 bn | 944.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.30 | -2.69 | -3.26 | 3.58 | 7.00 | 2.18 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 491.1 m | 482.2 m | 422.4 m | 375.2 m | 352.6 m | 345.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | — | — | 0.72 | 0.82 | 0.87 | 0.90 | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 406.0 m | 1.3 bn | 455.0 m | 3.5 bn | 1.2 bn | 785.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 515.0 m | 610.0 m | 570.0 m | 740.0 m | 970.0 m | — | SEC (XBRL)· 28 Feb 2025verified |
| Current assets | 3.4 bn | 7.9 bn | 11.1 bn | 11.6 bn | 8.1 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 13.5 bn | 13.1 bn | 12.6 bn | 12.4 bn | 18.2 bn | 19.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.8 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 25.2 bn | 29.7 bn | 32.8 bn | 33.0 bn | 37.8 bn | 41.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 880.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 650.0 m | 0 | 0 | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | — | — | 14.4 bn | 16.3 bn | 17.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.0 bn | 5.8 bn | 10.3 bn | 9.8 bn | 8.4 bn | 11.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 16.8 bn | 21.4 bn | 27.9 bn | 27.6 bn | 32.2 bn | 36.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 8.4 bn | 8.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 5.3 bn | 5.6 bn | 5.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.3 bn | -206.0 m | 485.0 m | 5.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 2.1 bn ≈ | -1.2 bn ≈ | -816.0 m ≈ | 3.8 bn ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 1.3 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -1.6 bn | -1.2 bn | -1.2 bn | -2.1 bn | -5.3 bn | -4.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -1.8 bn | 2.3 bn | -80.0 m | -294.0 m | -1.6 bn | -74.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 266.0 m | 290.0 m | 302.0 m | 313.0 m | 305.0 m | 306.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 0 | 471.0 m | 1.9 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 27 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 57 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 46.9 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet57
- Valuation56
- Quality69
- Growth100
- Returns36
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 89.50 – 219.73 USD.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)105.30 – 219.73 (Mid 146.86)WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 3.2 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 78%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 7.3%
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate11.85 – 15.93 (Mid 13.59)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
- Peers: EV/EBITDA89.50 – 169.09 (Mid 149.59)10 companies used · median multiple 12.8x · quartiles 9.1x – 14.0xAEP, CEG, CNP, D, EIX, ES, ETR, NEE, NRG, SO
- Peers: P/E124.76 – 155.68 (Mid 145.47)11 companies used · median multiple 24.0x · quartiles 20.6x – 25.7xAEP, CEG, CNP, D, ES, ETR, FE, NEE, NRG, PPL, SO
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 57/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 12.4% | 92 (vs peers) | 7% |
| Net margin · Quality | 11.6% | 46 (vs peers) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 8.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.5x | 73 (vs peers) | 14% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.1x | 47 (on a fixed band) | 12% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 34 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 23.0x | 50 (vs peers) | 14% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.2x | 64 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Dividend yield · Returns | 0.7% | 8 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns | 15.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Returns36/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation56/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Vistra Operations Company LLC (VST). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 17.7 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 3.0%; net margin 11.6%; ROE 43.1%; net debt/EBITDA 3.5x.
The estimated value range is 105.30–169.09 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 146.86 USD, the price of 139.59 USD leaves a potential of 5.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 5.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 12.4%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 8.9%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 3.5x
- Payout ratio (EPS): 15.0%
What contradicts it
- Dividend yield: 0.7%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Electric Services (SIC 4911) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 13 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 5.9 bn and 378.1 bn (within 8× of the company's); 39 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEENextera Energy Inc | 175.9 bn | 21.4 | 15.6% | 31.5% | +9.8% | −2% / +44% |
| SOSouthern Co | 105.7 bn | 24.0 | 11.3% | 14.5% | +10.6% | +3% / +32% |
| CEGConstellation Energy Corporation | 93.3 bn | 25.7 | 15.3% | 11.1% | +8.3% | −28% / +118% |
| AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | 70.7 bn | 19.0 | 12.8% | 16.9% | +10.9% | +5% / +63% |
| DDominion Energy, Inc | 58.7 bn | 19.8 | 10.5% | 16.9% | +14.2% | +6% / +47% |
| ETREntergy Corp | 49.9 bn | 27.7 | 11.1% | 13.6% | +9.0% | +12% / +115% |
| VSTVistra Operations Company LLC | 46.9 bn | 23.0 | 43.1% | 11.6% | +3.0% | −28% / +299% |
| CNPCenterpoint Energy Inc | 27.8 bn | 26.1 | 9.6% | 11.4% | +8.3% | +6% / +50% |
| FEFirstenergy Corp | 27.3 bn | 25.7 | 8.4% | 6.9% | +12.0% | −1% / +28% |
| PPLPPL Corp | 26.9 bn | 21.8 | 8.3% | 13.1% | +6.9% | −3% / +37% |
| ESEversource Energy | 26.0 bn | 17.9 | 9.1% | 10.4% | +13.8% | +3% / +16% |
| EIXEdison International | 22.9 bn | 6.3 | 20.8% | 19.6% | +9.8% | +1% / −11% |
| NRGNRG Energy, Inc | 20.2 bn | 24.9 | 23.8% | 2.6% | +9.2% | −43% / +101% |
| TLNTalen Energy Corporation | 15.5 bn | — | -16.7% | -6.4% | +22.0% | −9% / +523% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VST from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 94.05 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 165.93 Total return 20% · Per year 20% | 249.47 Total return 80% · Per year 80% |
| 3 years | 99.56 Total return -27% · Per year -10% | 196.84 Total return 44% · Per year 13% | 323.75 Total return 135% · Per year 33% |
| 5 years | 105.40 Total return -21% · Per year -5% | 233.52 Total return 72% · Per year 11% | 420.14 Total return 207% · Per year 25% |
- Exit P/E± 49.21
- Net margin± 34.45
- Annual revenue growth± 27.13
- Annual dilution± 2.89
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Vistra is one of the largest integrated power companies in the U.S., combining retail electricity and gas sales with a generation fleet of over 44,000 MW serving about 5 million customers in 18 states and DC. It matters now because data-centre demand and long-term contracts with hyperscalers could support future profitability if executed as planned.
SWOT
Strengths
- The integrated generation and retail model offers a natural hedge against price volatility, and hedging covers nearly all production for the current year 13.
- Geographic and fuel diversification, including a significant nuclear base, supports a relatively stable revenue profile 1.
- Investment-grade ratings and release of collateral have improved access to financing and credit terms 2.
Weaknesses
- Reliance on wholesale markets and power prices exposes results to large swings, especially in volatile periods 1.
- Acquisitions and construction projects carry integration and delay risks, and some solar and battery projects have been deferred 12.
- The Moss Landing fire led to a significant write-off and removal of an asset from operations 1.
Opportunities
- Long-term contracts with hyperscalers and new gas and nuclear projects could strengthen long-term revenues 12.
- Investment in digital infrastructure through the Helix fund could open new revenue sources linked to data centres 23.
- Completing the Cogentrix acquisition could add capacity and synergies if integration proceeds as planned 1.
Threats
- Regulatory changes and market interventions could adversely affect prices and profitability 1.
- Fuel supply and geopolitical disruptions in regions such as Russia and the Middle East could raise costs 12.
- Rising competition and new generation build-out could lower wholesale prices over the longer term 1.
Risks
- Wholesale price volatilityhigh
Revenues depend on market prices, which can change quickly, and without long-term contracts the company could face declines 1.
- Fuel cost and availabilityhigh
Disruptions in gas, coal or nuclear fuel deliveries could raise costs or reduce output 1.
- Regulation and policymedium
Legislative and environmental or market rule changes could have significant effects on operations 1.
- Acquisition and construction executionmedium
The Cogentrix acquisition and new capacity projects depend on approvals and execution, with risk of delays or unrealised synergies 12.
- Operational and safety risksmedium
Operating incidents, including battery storage events, and cybersecurity risks could generate losses and liability 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The integrated model and high hedging coverage could support predictable results, while data-centre demand may open longer-term revenue growth 13.
- Long-term nuclear contracts and investment in digital infrastructure could create a revenue base steadier than spot-market exposure 12.
- Improved credit ratings and share repurchases could strengthen financial flexibility 23.
What would break the thesis
- Exposure to wholesale prices and regulatory policy could reduce profitability if markets become more competitive or more regulated 1.
- Execution risk on acquisitions and construction, along with equipment shortages, could delay expected benefits 12.
- A major operating event, such as the Moss Landing fire, could generate significant losses and weigh on investor confidence 1.
What to watch
- Closing of the Cogentrix acquisition and integration of assetssecond half of 2026
- Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance and 2027 hedge coveragenext quarterly report
- Timing and approvals for power delivery to Meta and AWSlate 2026 and 2027
- PJM auction results and any reliability backstop auction2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Vistra is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company serving residential, commercial and industrial customers from California to Maine. Its integrated model lets it obtain the electricity needed for its customers at lower cost than a stand-alone retail provider, with retail operations under several brands such as TXU Energy 1. The company participates in all major competitive wholesale power markets in the U.S. 1.
The generation fleet is diversified: natural gas makes up about 62% of net capacity and nuclear about 15%, with the remainder coal, solar and battery storage 1. The company manages commercial risk through derivative contracts for power, gas and other commodities, aiming to reduce revenue and fuel-cost volatility 1.
Market context
Trends
- Data-centre demandtailwind
Fast load growth from data centres, electrification and electric vehicles supports talks with large customers on long-term contracts 12. If these contracts materialise they could stabilise revenues.
- Supply chains and labourheadwind
Shortages of equipment and labour have raised costs and lead times and led to deferral of some solar and battery projects 12.
- Regulation and capacity marketsmixed
FERC decisions on co-locating large loads with generation and price caps in PJM could reduce uncertainty but also limit gains 1.
- Middle East conflictheadwind
Regional instability could affect gas and power prices and construction costs, although the company does not operate directly in the region 2.
Competitive position
Vistra competes with other competitive retail providers and generators in ERCOT, PJM and elsewhere in the U.S., where competition and market-structure changes can affect results 1. New generation capacity could lower wholesale prices 1.
In retail, Vistra faces competition from other electricity providers, which could lead to loss of existing customers or difficulty attracting new ones 1. Differentiation rests on wind and solar products and efficiency services 1.
- Constellation EnergyCEG
Nuclear and gas generator with retail activity, cited as a competitor in U.S. wholesale power markets based on the supplied sources.
- NRG EnergyNRG
Retail provider and generator active in Texas and competitive markets, a direct competitor for residential customers.
- NextEra EnergyNEE
Generation company with a large renewable and gas portfolio, competing in new capacity build-out.
- Talen Energy
Generator with nuclear and gas assets in PJM, competing directly in capacity auctions and hyperscaler contracts.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report05 Oct 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report24 Sept 2026Material agreement · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report10 Aug 2026
- Current report07 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report16 Jul 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Jul 2026Other events
- Current report30 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report04 May 2026Shareholder vote
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Vistra Corp. · 27 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Vistra Corp. · 10 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Vistra Corp. · 07 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.