olivLaw · European equity research
AB "Amber Grid" AMG1L.VS
Lithuania · Nasdaq Vilnius · ISIN LT0000128696 · Vertical: Listed companies from Lithuania
AB 'Amber Grid' operates the natural gas transmission system in Lithuania and is a subsidiary of the EPSO-G group, which holds almost all of its shares. The 2025 annual report highlights large strategic infrastructure projects, the development of hydrogen transport and preparation for stricter methane rules from 2026.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, AB "Amber Grid" (AMG1L.VS) stock was 1.20 EUR (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 199.3 m EUR, P/E 120.0 on diluted EPS of 0.01 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.99%, beta 0.07, 52-week range 1.18–1.32 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 51.3
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.19 – 1.21
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.60 · band width 2.1%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.20 / 1.22
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.00 / -0.00
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.8% | −0.6% | −0.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | +0.8% | −4.2% | +5.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −2.4% | +4.3% | −6.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.7% | +7.5% | −15.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.6% | +9.9% | −11.6 pp | +13.5% |
| 3 years | +2.6% | +49.8% | −47.3 pp | +55.7% |
| 5 years | unavailable | +42.8% | unavailable | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 15.7, median 23.2, max 130.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 80.9 m | 74.3 m | 69.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −8.2% | −6.4% |
| Net income | 13.0 m | 8.3 m | 1.4 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −36.2% | −83.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −28.6% | −80.0% |
| net % | 16.1% | 11.2% | 2.0% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 1.9 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 18.2 m EUR
- Net debt
- 16.2 m EUR
- Equity
- 166.3 m EUR
- Total assets
- 324.7 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.11x
- Current ratio
- 0.29x
- ROE
- 0.8%
- ROA
- 0.4%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 80.9 m | 74.3 m | 69.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 14.7 m | 11.2 m | 2.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 12.7 m | 14.9 m | 14.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 27.4 m ≈ | 26.1 m ≈ | 17.5 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 1.8 m | 2.3 m | 2.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 13.7 m | 9.5 m | 1.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 707.0 k | 1.2 m | -195.0 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 13.0 m | 8.3 m | 1.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.01 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.06 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 121.0 k | 31.0 k | 1.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 4.9 m | 4.8 m | 4.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 34.4 m | 35.3 m | 29.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 284.4 m | 276.8 m | 283.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 2.6 m | 2.2 m | 3.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 333.4 m | 327.2 m | 324.7 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 25.1 m | 23.6 m | 18.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 61.0 m | 55.3 m | — | esef· 07 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 79.8 m | 90.1 m | 103.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 187.5 m | 175.6 m | 166.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 185.9 m | 166.1 m | — | esef· 07 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 30 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score < 40 · (margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 199.3 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality18
- Returns77
- Balance sheet44
- Valuation12
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.07 – 1.11 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA0.70 – 0.98 (Mid 0.76)3 companies used · median multiple 8.1x · quartiles 7.6x – 10.2xINR1L.VS, IVL1L.VS, LGD1L.VS
- Peers: P/E0.07 – 0.12 (Mid 0.08)12 companies used · median multiple 8.2x · quartiles 7.1x – 11.9xAKO1L.VS, APG1L.VS, GRG1L.VS, INR1L.VS, IVL1L.VS, KNE1L.VS, KNR1L.VS, LGD1L.VS, RSU1L.VS, VBL1L.VS, VLP1L.VS, ZMP1L.VS
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.81 – 1.11 (Mid 0.94)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 30/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 1.1% | 20 (vs peers) | 16% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.0% | 13 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 0.9x | 88 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 6% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 120.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 16% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 12.3x | 24 (on a fixed band) | 16% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.4% | 77 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet44/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality18/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial77/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation12/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AB "Amber Grid" (AMG1L.VS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 69.6 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth -6.4%; net margin 2.0%; ROE 0.8%; net debt/EBITDA 0.9x.
The estimated value range is 0.70–0.98 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.76 EUR, the price of 1.20 EUR leaves a potential of -36.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -58.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 30/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net debt / EBITDA: 0.9x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.4%
What contradicts it
- ROIC: 1.1%
- Net margin: 2.0%
- Interest coverage: 1.3x
- Current ratio: 0.3x
- P/E (TTM): 120.0x
- EV/EBITDA: 12.3x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, FCF yield, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Lithuania · same country · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGD1L.VSLitgrid Ab | 571.2 m | 16.7 | 13.0% | 8.0% | +14.2% | +38% / +67% |
| IVL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Invalda INVL" | 318.0 m | 7.0 | 19.7% | 230.8% | +44.6% | +21% / +165% |
| AKO1L.VSAB Akola group | 267.2 m | 7.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | −4.4% | +4% / +58% |
| APG1L.VSAkcinė prekybos bendrovė "APRANGA" | 213.6 m | 13.2 | 23.9% | 5.3% | +4.9% | +22% / +44% |
| AMG1L.VSAB "Amber Grid" | 199.3 m | 120.0 | 0.8% | 2.0% | −6.4% | 0% / +4% |
| VLP1L.VSAb "vilkyškių Pieninė" | 184.2 m | 16.8 | 12.6% | 3.8% | +16.9% | +46% / +228% |
| KNE1L.VSAB "KN Energies" | 180.3 m | 9.9 | 10.8% | 17.3% | +12.3% | +41% / +139% |
| GRG1L.VSAB "Grigeo" | 131.7 m | 7.9 | 12.5% | 6.7% | +15.7% | +0% / +2% |
| RSU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ROKIŠKIO SŪRIS" | 130.5 m | 7.6 | 11.1% | 4.3% | +8.7% | −7% / +46% |
| ZMP1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ŽEMAITIJOS PIENAS" | 117.1 m | 5.4 | 14.1% | 6.4% | +10.6% | +9% / +68% |
| KNR1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Kauno energija" | 88.7 m | 11.4 | 7.6% | 9.1% | −0.3% | +16% / +124% |
| VBL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "VILNIAUS BALDAI" | 37.4 m | 8.4 | 11.5% | 4.3% | +7.1% | −5% / +54% |
| INL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Farmland" | 23.7 m | 29.0 | 4.1% | 91.6% | +6.7% | +12% / +1% |
| INR1L.VSSpecialioji uždarojo tipo nekilnojamojo turto investicinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Real Estate" | 21.5 m | 5.9 | 13.7% | 89.4% | +2.8% | −15% / +34% |
| NTU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Novaturas" | 5.8 m | — | -64.2% | -3.8% | −3.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AUG1L.VSAUGA group, AB | — | — | -43.3% | -20.7% | −6.9% | +15% / −73% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AMG1L.VS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.53 Total return -56% · Per year -56% | 0.93 Total return -22% · Per year -22% | 1.41 Total return 18% · Per year 18% |
| 3 years | 0.42 Total return -64% · Per year -29% | 0.84 Total return -28% · Per year -10% | 1.41 Total return 20% · Per year 6% |
| 5 years | 0.33 Total return -70% · Per year -22% | 0.76 Total return -34% · Per year -8% | 1.41 Total return 22% · Per year 4% |
- Exit P/E± 0.21
- Net margin± 0.15
- Annual revenue growth± 0.13
- Annual dilution± 0.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AB 'Amber Grid' operates the natural gas transmission system in Lithuania and is a subsidiary of the EPSO-G group, which holds almost all of its shares. The 2025 annual report highlights large strategic infrastructure projects, the development of hydrogen transport and preparation for stricter methane rules from 2026 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Development of hydrogen transport and the Nordic-Baltic corridor could create new areas of activity 1.
- Lithuania's demand for climate-neutral energy could support demand for new infrastructure 1.
- Cooperation with authorities and companies in neighbouring countries could facilitate cross-border projects 1.
Risks
- Delays in strategic projectshigh
Large infrastructure projects could be delayed, which would affect the strategic objectives of the company and the group 1.
- Disruption of core systemshigh
Failures in systems used in core business could interrupt transmission and affect continuity of supply 1.
- Cyber securitymedium
The information managed is of strategic importance, and an attack or data leak could disrupt operations 1.
- Failure to meet budgetmedium
Budget overruns could affect the ability to meet financial obligations and pay dividends 1.
- Methane regulation compliancemedium
Stricter requirements from 2026 could require additional specialists and monitoring investment 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- A regulated position backed by a strong group could provide predictable revenue from core activities if the regulator recognises the necessary expenses 1.
- If the hydrogen projects and the Nordic-Baltic corridor are realised, the company could open new long-term growth sources 1.
- The group dividend policy signals a commitment to shareholder returns, which could sustain interest in the shares 1.
What would break the thesis
- A very small free float and low liquidity could limit investor interest and make trading difficult 1.
- Delays in strategic projects and new methane requirements could generate costs above those planned 1.
- Dependence on regulatory decisions could limit the company's ability to recover its investments 1.
What to watch
- Progress of hydrogen projects and the Nordic-Baltic corridor2030
- Application of the Methane Regulation and compliance costs2026
- Outcome of budget and financial plan executionnext 10-K
- Dividend decision for the following financial year2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company is the natural gas transmission operator in Lithuania and, according to the report, plays a key role in ensuring secure, reliable and efficient operation of gas and electricity transmission systems 1. Its issued capital is EUR 51,730,929.06, divided into 178,382,514 ordinary registered shares 1. The shares have traded on the NASDAQ Vilnius regulated market, secondary list, since August 2013 1.
The shareholder structure is dominated by EPSO-G UAB, which holds 96.58% of the shares, with the remainder held by minority shareholders 1. At the end of 2025 the company had 368 employees and forms an integral part of the EPSO-G group, whose consolidated sustainability report also covers the company 1.
In 2025 the company paid dividends of EUR 10.6 million, or EUR 0.0599 per share, a decision taken by the General Meeting of Shareholders on 30 April 2025 1. The group dividend policy aims at a expected return on equity through sustainable value growth 1.
Segments
Gas and electricity transmission
The core regulated activity is operating the natural gas and electricity transmission systems, with a focus on avoiding disruptions to consumers 1. Technological risk is managed through specialised information systems, business continuity plans and continuous monitoring of the network 1.
Market context
The company operates in a regulated environment in which recognised expenses and tariff methodologies are shaped by decisions of authorities such as the Ministry of Energy and NERC 1. The development of Lithuania's energy system, including climate-neutral energy supply, is a national objective that creates demand for investment 1.
The trading market for the shares is small: in 2025 turnover was 274,524 shares and the free float is limited 1. Low liquidity of the securities is a relevant context point for investors 1.
Trends
- Transition to hydrogen and climate-neutral energytailwind
Development of a hydrogen corridor and reorganisation through the Energy Transformation Center could open new revenue sources if projects receive the required approvals 1.
- Methane emission rulesheadwind
The Methane Regulation, applicable from 2026, imposes stricter monitoring, leak detection and repair requirements, which could raise staffing and compliance costs 1.
- Investment in greenhouse gas reductionmixed
The long-term emission reduction goal depends on regulatory approval of the necessary investments; without it the goal could be delayed 1.
- Budget pressure and financial riskheadwind
Failure to meet budgets and financial plans could affect the ability to meet obligations and pay dividends while large strategic projects are underway 1.
Competitive position
The supplied source does not describe direct competitors. As a regulated transmission operator, the company functions as a natural monopoly in Lithuania, and competition appears mainly in new infrastructure projects and alternative energy 1.
The company mentions cooperation with authorities and companies in neighbouring countries on cross-border hydrogen projects, which points to indirect competition with other regional operators 1.
- Transmission operators in neighbouring Baltic states
The report mentions cooperation with companies in neighbouring countries on hydrogen projects without naming them 1.
- European energy transmission operators
The source does not identify US-listed peers, so no ticker is given 1.
- Hydrogen infrastructure developers
Hydrogen corridor projects could attract other actors into the same investment space 1.
- Providers of alternative energy solutions
The source gives no details on these entities, which appear only in context 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202407 May 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AB "Amber Grid" · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.