olivLaw · European equity research
AB "VILKYŠKIŲ PIENINĖ" VLP1L.VS
Lithuania · Nasdaq Vilnius · ISIN LT0000127508 · Vertical: Listed companies from Lithuania
AB 'Vilkyškių pieninė' is the parent of a Lithuanian and Baltic dairy processing group within Vilvi Group. Its annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025 describes exposure to climate, geopolitical and workforce risks, which makes these themes central for investors and local communities. Management describes risk management as an integral part of the group's activity.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, AB "VILKYŠKIŲ PIENINĖ" (VLP1L.VS) stock was 15.50 EUR (+1.31% on the day), with market capitalisation 184.2 m EUR, P/E 16.8 on diluted EPS of 0.92 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.48%, beta 0.23, 52-week range 10.60–16.00 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.8
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 15.21 – 16.00
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.37 · band width 5.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 15.47 / 13.31
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 0.05 / 0.09
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +1.3% | −0.6% | +2.0 pp | — |
| 3 months | +4.0% | −4.2% | +8.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | +33.0% | +4.3% | +28.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +31.9% | +7.5% | +24.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | +47.6% | +9.9% | +37.7 pp | +10.8% |
| 3 years | +238.4% | +49.8% | +188.6 pp | +50.0% |
| 5 years | +400.0% | +42.8% | +357.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 100 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 3.8, median 4.3, max 12.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 210.5 m | 245.4 m | 286.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +16.6% | +16.9% |
| Net income | 14.7 m | 25.7 m | 10.9 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +74.9% | −57.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 1.23 | 2.15 | 0.92 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +74.8% | −57.2% |
| net % | 7.0% | 10.5% | 3.8% |
| Free cash flow | 14.5 m | -5.3 m | -19.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 2.8 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 41.0 m EUR
- Net debt
- 38.2 m EUR
- Equity
- 88.9 m EUR
- Total assets
- 189.0 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.46x
- Current ratio
- 1.26x
- ROE
- 12.6%
- ROA
- 6.4%
- FCF margin
- -6.9%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 210.5 m | 245.4 m | 286.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 182.8 m | 203.6 m | 263.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 27.7 m | 41.8 m | 23.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 16.8 m | 29.0 m | 11.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 1.4 m | 1.5 m | 1.5 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 15.4 m | 27.7 m | 10.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 787.0 k | 2.0 m | -141.0 k | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 14.7 m | 25.7 m | 10.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 1.23 | 2.15 | 0.92 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.54 | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 8.7 m | 18.9 m | 2.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 17.2 m | 22.4 m | 40.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 17.6 m | 14.3 m | 17.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 44.2 m | 56.2 m | 63.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 56.2 m | 89.3 m | 117.3 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 107.0 m | 152.3 m | 189.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 20.8 m | 21.7 m | 27.2 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 15.7 m | 33.3 m | 41.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 25.0 m | 26.9 m | 50.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 46.0 m | 67.8 m | 100.0 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 61.0 m | 84.5 m | 88.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 11.9 m | 11.9 m | 11.9 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 26.7 m | 30.7 m | 12.1 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 12.2 m | 36.0 m | 31.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 14.5 m ≈ | -5.3 m ≈ | -19.7 m ≈ | esef· 07 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.5 m | -33.5 m | -46.8 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -7.1 m | 13.0 m | 18.6 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 3.2 m | 3.7 m | 6.4 m | esef· 07 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 184.2 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
58% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.52 – 10.01 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E6.52 – 9.82 (Mid 7.30)11 companies used · median multiple 7.9x · quartiles 7.1x – 10.7xAKO1L.VS, APG1L.VS, GRG1L.VS, INR1L.VS, IVL1L.VS, KNE1L.VS, KNR1L.VS, LGD1L.VS, RSU1L.VS, VBL1L.VS, ZMP1L.VS
- Dividend discount (DDM)7.34 – 10.01 (Mid 8.47)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.3% | 50 (vs peers) | 18% |
| Net margin · Quality | 3.8% | 27 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | -180.5% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 7.4x | 91 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 38 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.8x | 15 (vs peers) | 18% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -10.7% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 14% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.5% | 50 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet70/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality30/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial50/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation9/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AB "VILKYŠKIŲ PIENINĖ" (VLP1L.VS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 286.9 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 16.9%; net margin 3.8%; ROE 12.6%.
The estimated value range is 6.93–9.92 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.89 EUR, the price of 15.50 EUR leaves a potential of -49.1% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -96.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 58.3% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Interest coverage: 7.4x
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 3.8%
- FCF conversion: -180.5%
- P/E (TTM): 16.8x
- FCF yield: -10.7%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Lithuania · same country · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGD1L.VSLitgrid Ab | 571.2 m | 16.7 | 13.0% | 8.0% | +14.2% | +38% / +67% |
| IVL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Invalda INVL" | 318.0 m | 7.0 | 19.7% | 230.8% | +44.6% | +21% / +165% |
| AKO1L.VSAB Akola group | 267.2 m | 7.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | −4.4% | +4% / +58% |
| APG1L.VSAkcinė prekybos bendrovė "APRANGA" | 213.6 m | 13.2 | 23.9% | 5.3% | +4.9% | +22% / +44% |
| AMG1L.VSAB "Amber Grid" | 199.3 m | 120.0 | 0.8% | 2.0% | −6.4% | 0% / +4% |
| VLP1L.VSAb "vilkyškių Pieninė" | 184.2 m | 16.8 | 12.6% | 3.8% | +16.9% | +46% / +228% |
| KNE1L.VSAB "KN Energies" | 180.3 m | 9.9 | 10.8% | 17.3% | +12.3% | +41% / +139% |
| GRG1L.VSAB "Grigeo" | 131.7 m | 7.9 | 12.5% | 6.7% | +15.7% | +0% / +2% |
| RSU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ROKIŠKIO SŪRIS" | 130.5 m | 7.6 | 11.1% | 4.3% | +8.7% | −7% / +46% |
| ZMP1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ŽEMAITIJOS PIENAS" | 117.1 m | 5.4 | 14.1% | 6.4% | +10.6% | +9% / +68% |
| KNR1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Kauno energija" | 88.7 m | 11.4 | 7.6% | 9.1% | −0.3% | +16% / +124% |
| VBL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "VILNIAUS BALDAI" | 37.4 m | 8.4 | 11.5% | 4.3% | +7.1% | −5% / +54% |
| INL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Farmland" | 23.7 m | 29.0 | 4.1% | 91.6% | +6.7% | +12% / +1% |
| INR1L.VSSpecialioji uždarojo tipo nekilnojamojo turto investicinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Real Estate" | 21.5 m | 5.9 | 13.7% | 89.4% | +2.8% | −15% / +34% |
| NTU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Novaturas" | 5.8 m | — | -64.2% | -3.8% | −3.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AUG1L.VSAUGA group, AB | — | — | -43.3% | -20.7% | −6.9% | +15% / −73% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for VLP1L.VS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 10.13 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 17.82 Total return 19% · Per year 19% | 26.74 Total return 77% · Per year 77% |
| 3 years | 12.01 Total return -13% · Per year -4% | 23.57 Total return 66% · Per year 18% | 38.50 Total return 166% · Per year 39% |
| 5 years | 14.25 Total return 10% · Per year 2% | 31.18 Total return 128% · Per year 18% | 55.44 Total return 293% · Per year 32% |
- Exit P/E± 5.89
- Net margin± 4.13
- Annual revenue growth± 3.08
- Annual dilution± 0.35
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AB 'Vilkyškių pieninė' is the parent of a Lithuanian and Baltic dairy processing group within Vilvi Group. Its annual report for the year ended 31 December 2025 describes exposure to climate, geopolitical and workforce risks, which makes these themes central for investors and local communities. Management describes risk management as an integral part of the group's activity 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has a formal risk management framework aligned with the COSO model and reviewed quarterly by the supervisory board 1.
- The governance structure provides for independent oversight, limited mandates and annual assessments of board activity 1.
- The group has diversified its energy sources and supply chain, which reduces reliance on a single supplier 1.
Weaknesses
- The report acknowledges that raw material and energy prices can directly affect production costs 1.
- The group relies on technologies to reduce emissions, and the decarbonisation process is described as slow 1.
- Software procurement and technology deployment can take a long time, delaying digitalisation 1.
Opportunities
- Investment in low-impact technologies and decarbonisation solutions could create competitive advantages if implemented effectively 1.
- Accelerating digitalisation and data automation could improve operational efficiency 1.
- Expanding diversification of the customer portfolio and businesses could reduce dependence on large customers 1.
Risks
- Raw material and energy price riskhigh
A sharp rise in raw material and energy prices can affect production costs, and seasonality of supply can complicate planning 1.
- Demand and price riskmedium
Fluctuations in demand and prices, including those caused by unfair competition, can reduce product sales 1.
- Geopolitical riskmedium
Military conflicts and geopolitical tensions can bring trade restrictions, higher tariffs and increased logistics costs 1.
- Workforce riskmedium
Population decline in the region and a shortage of highly skilled staff can affect long-term operations 1.
- Climate transition riskhigh
Growing production can raise emissions, and reducing them depends on new technologies whose deployment may be slow 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the group effectively diversifies energy sources, supply and its customer portfolio, it could reduce its sensitivity to the price shocks described in the report 1.
- A governance framework with formal supervision, annual assessments and risk management aligned to recognised standards could support investor confidence 1.
- If investments in low-emission technologies and digitalisation deliver results, the group could improve efficiency and its long-term reputation 1.
What would break the thesis
- If raw material and energy prices remain volatile, processing margins could be squeezed, affecting results 1.
- If geopolitical tensions worsen, logistics costs and trade restrictions could rise, affecting distribution 1.
- If the climate transition stays slow, the group could face regulatory and reputational pressure linked to emissions 1.
What to watch
- Evolution of raw material and energy prices and their effect on production costs2026
- Progress of investment projects and low-emission technologies2026
- Formation of the board of Pieno logistika AB and effects on governance2026
- Demand trends and unfair competition in the main sales marketsnext 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
According to the annual report, the group includes several entities, among them Vilkyškių pieninė AB, Modest AB, Kelmės pieninė AB, Kelmės pienas UAB and Baltic Dairy SIA in Latvia, as well as Pieno logistika AB 1. The core activity is processing milk and distributing dairy products, and the group describes its strategic objectives within a risk management framework aligned with the COSO model 1. The supervisory board oversees strategy, while the board implements it 1.
The governance structure consists of a supervisory board of three members elected for four-year terms and a board of six members, where the chair is the company's manager 1. The report states that in 2025 board members attended meetings and none attended less than half of them 1. The company applies a remuneration system with fixed and variable parts for employees 1.
The group manages its activity through a newly created investment projects division, which coordinates strategic projects and oversight of risks linked to decarbonisation and efficiency 1. The report also mentions food safety, quality and compliance policies, with regular internal and external audits 1.
Segments
Milk processing and dairy products
The main segment is processing raw milk into dairy products for the market, described as the central activity of the Vilvi group 1. The report links this segment to the risk of raw material and energy price spikes, which affect production costs 1.
Market context
The report does not provide a detailed analysis of dairy market size, but it explicitly identifies demand and price risk from market fluctuations and unfair competition 1. The group also mentions ongoing military conflicts and geopolitical tensions that can influence trade restrictions, tariffs and logistics costs 1.
The report also describes the risk of population decline in the region and the shortage of highly skilled workers, factors that may affect the local labour market in which the group operates 1. These conditions are treated as long-term risks 1.
Trends
- Climate transitionheadwind
The report notes that growing production can increase greenhouse gas emissions and that reducing them may be slow due to dependence on technology solutions 1. The company describes measures such as low-impact technologies and pollution monitoring programmes 1.
- Energy source diversificationtailwind
The group has put in place technological solutions to diversify the energy resources it uses, which could reduce exposure to energy price shocks 1. The report links this measure to managing supply chain risk 1.
- Geopolitical tensions and logisticsheadwind
Military conflicts and geopolitical tensions can raise tariffs and the costs of raw materials and logistics 1. The group responds by diversifying its supply chain, business activities and customer portfolio 1.
- Digitalisation and automationmixed
The group is implementing data automation solutions and structural changes to speed up technology deployment, although the report notes that software procurement can be lengthy 1. This could support operational efficiency if processes accelerate 1.
Competitive position
The report treats competition as a risk factor for sales and prices, especially unfair competition, which points to pressure on margins 1. No named competitors appear in the source, so the competitive analysis remains limited to these general statements 1.
The group responds by diversifying its businesses and customer portfolio, and by running loyalty programmes for customers, measures described as part of managing product sales risk 1. The effectiveness of these measures is not quantified in the source 1.
- Regional dairy producers
The report mentions competition in the market without naming companies; the source gives no data on these competitors 1.
- Competing producers with similar activity
Unfair competition is cited as a risk source, but the source does not identify the entities involved 1.
- Dairy product importers
Demand and price risk is linked to industry changes and customers' purchasing power, with no competitors named 1.
- Milk and raw material suppliers
The source discusses price fluctuations and seasonality of supply but does not name competing suppliers 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202507 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202429 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AB "VILKYŠKIŲ PIENINĖ" · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.