olivLaw · European equity research
AB Grigeo Group GRG1L.VS
Lithuania · Nasdaq Vilnius · ISIN LT0000102030 · Vertical: Listed companies from Lithuania
AB Grigeo Group is a Lithuanian producer of paper and corrugated packaging products, with operations across several European countries. The company is listed on Nasdaq Vilnius and in 2025 faces a major environmental dispute linked to a former subsidiary in Klaipėda. The claim sought in that dispute amounts to 48257676.57 EUR, making the case an important factor for investors.
At the close of 05 Nov 2026, AB Grigeo Group (GRG1L.VS) stock was 1.00 EUR (−1.96% on the day), with market capitalisation 131.7 m EUR, P/E 7.9 on diluted EPS of 0.13 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.00%, beta 0.15, 52-week range 1.00–1.16 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 45.4
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.99 – 1.02
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.25 · band width 2.5%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.01 / 1.06
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.00 / -0.00
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −2.0% | −0.6% | −1.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.3% | −4.2% | −0.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −9.5% | +4.3% | −13.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −11.5% | +7.5% | −19.0 pp | — |
| 1 year | −1.0% | +9.9% | −10.9 pp | +13.5% |
| 3 years | +9.6% | +49.8% | −40.2 pp | +55.7% |
| 5 years | +12.9% | +42.8% | −30.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 5.8, median 6.7, max 9.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 195.4 m | 213.0 m | 246.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +9.0% | +15.7% |
| Net income | 25.3 m | 20.8 m | 16.6 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −17.7% | −20.3% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −17.9% | −19.2% |
| net % | 13.0% | 9.8% | 6.7% |
| Free cash flow | 33.2 m | 5.4 m | 467.0 k |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 10.3 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 8.8 m EUR
- Net debt
- -1.5 m EUR
- Equity
- 137.8 m EUR
- Total assets
- 202.6 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.06x
- Current ratio
- 1.49x
- ROE
- 12.4%
- ROA
- 8.7%
- FCF margin
- 0.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 195.4 m | 213.0 m | 246.4 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 143.7 m | 167.6 m | 196.5 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 51.6 m | 45.4 m | 50.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Operating income | 29.4 m | 23.8 m | 19.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Interest expense | 460.0 k | 691.0 k | 896.0 k | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 29.6 m | 23.9 m | 18.5 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Income tax | 4.3 m | 3.0 m | 2.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Net income | 25.3 m | 20.8 m | 16.6 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.13 | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.06 | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 19.0 m | 14.0 m | 10.3 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 21.0 m | 31.7 m | 27.8 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Inventories | 14.4 m | 20.6 m | 23.6 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Current assets | 75.1 m | 66.8 m | 62.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 68.6 m | 97.4 m | 113.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 156.9 m | 179.8 m | 202.6 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 24.9 m | 32.9 m | 37.1 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 2.5 m | 677.0 k | 8.8 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 30.6 m | 36.5 m | 42.0 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 40.3 m | 50.8 m | 64.8 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | 116.6 m | 129.0 m | 137.8 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 131.1 m | 131.8 m | 131.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 40.2 m | 24.4 m | 31.2 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Capex | 7.0 m | 19.1 m | 30.7 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 33.2 m ≈ | 5.4 m ≈ | 467.0 k ≈ | esef· 09 Apr 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -26.5 m | -17.5 m | -36.2 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -9.6 m | -11.8 m | 1.3 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 6.6 m | 9.1 m | 7.8 m | esef· 09 Apr 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 54 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
05 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 131.7 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality57
- Returns51
- Balance sheet83
- Valuation36
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.18 – 1.55 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)0.18 – 0.28 (Mid 0.22)WACC 8.2% · starting FCFF 1.3 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.89 – 1.55 (Mid 1.06)11 companies used · median multiple 8.4x · quartiles 7.1x – 12.3xAKO1L.VS, APG1L.VS, INR1L.VS, IVL1L.VS, KNE1L.VS, KNR1L.VS, LGD1L.VS, RSU1L.VS, VBL1L.VS, VLP1L.VS, ZMP1L.VS
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.82 – 1.11 (Mid 0.94)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 54/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 13.5% | 90 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.7% | 60 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 2.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 21.2x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.5x | 58 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.9x | 62 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 0.4% | 4 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.9% | 85 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 1,669.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet83/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns51/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation36/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AB "Grigeo" (GRG1L.VS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2025-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 246.4 m EUR in 2025; YoY growth 15.7%; net margin 6.7%; ROE 12.5%.
The estimated value range is 0.82–1.11 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.94 EUR, the price of 1.00 EUR leaves a potential of -5.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -6.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 54/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 13.5%
- Interest coverage: 21.2x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.9%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 2.8%
- FCF yield: 0.4%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 1,669.0%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Lithuania · same country · compared with 15 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGD1L.VSLitgrid Ab | 571.2 m | 16.7 | 13.0% | 8.0% | +14.2% | +38% / +67% |
| IVL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Invalda INVL" | 318.0 m | 7.0 | 19.7% | 230.8% | +44.6% | +21% / +165% |
| AKO1L.VSAB Akola group | 267.2 m | 7.2 | 10.5% | 2.5% | −4.4% | +4% / +58% |
| APG1L.VSAkcinė prekybos bendrovė "APRANGA" | 213.6 m | 13.2 | 23.9% | 5.3% | +4.9% | +22% / +44% |
| AMG1L.VSAB "Amber Grid" | 199.3 m | 120.0 | 0.8% | 2.0% | −6.4% | 0% / +4% |
| VLP1L.VSAb "vilkyškių Pieninė" | 184.2 m | 16.8 | 12.6% | 3.8% | +16.9% | +46% / +228% |
| KNE1L.VSAB "KN Energies" | 180.3 m | 9.9 | 10.8% | 17.3% | +12.3% | +41% / +139% |
| GRG1L.VSAB "Grigeo" | 131.7 m | 7.9 | 12.5% | 6.7% | +15.7% | +0% / +2% |
| RSU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ROKIŠKIO SŪRIS" | 130.5 m | 7.6 | 11.1% | 4.3% | +8.7% | −7% / +46% |
| ZMP1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "ŽEMAITIJOS PIENAS" | 117.1 m | 5.4 | 14.1% | 6.4% | +10.6% | +9% / +68% |
| KNR1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Kauno energija" | 88.7 m | 11.4 | 7.6% | 9.1% | −0.3% | +16% / +124% |
| VBL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "VILNIAUS BALDAI" | 37.4 m | 8.4 | 11.5% | 4.3% | +7.1% | −5% / +54% |
| INL1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Farmland" | 23.7 m | 29.0 | 4.1% | 91.6% | +6.7% | +12% / +1% |
| INR1L.VSSpecialioji uždarojo tipo nekilnojamojo turto investicinė bendrovė "INVL Baltic Real Estate" | 21.5 m | 5.9 | 13.7% | 89.4% | +2.8% | −15% / +34% |
| NTU1L.VSAkcinė bendrovė "Novaturas" | 5.8 m | — | -64.2% | -3.8% | −3.6% | unavailable / unavailable |
| AUG1L.VSAUGA group, AB | — | — | -43.3% | -20.7% | −6.9% | +15% / −73% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GRG1L.VS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.65 Total return -29% · Per year -29% | 1.15 Total return 22% · Per year 22% | 1.73 Total return 81% · Per year 81% |
| 3 years | 0.78 Total return -5% · Per year -2% | 1.52 Total return 76% · Per year 21% | 2.48 Total return 179% · Per year 41% |
| 5 years | 0.92 Total return 23% · Per year 4% | 2.01 Total return 148% · Per year 20% | 3.58 Total return 319% · Per year 33% |
- Exit P/E± 0.38
- Net margin± 0.27
- Annual revenue growth± 0.20
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AB Grigeo Group is a Lithuanian producer of paper and corrugated packaging products, with operations across several European countries. The company is listed on Nasdaq Vilnius and in 2025 faces a major environmental dispute linked to a former subsidiary in Klaipėda 1. The claim sought in that dispute amounts to 48257676.57 EUR 1, making the case an important factor for investors.
SWOT
Strengths
- The group has an integrated structure, from raw material to finished product, and a presence in several European markets 1.
- The company has a broad shareholder base, with more than five thousand registered shareholders, which suggests sustained public interest 1.
- The group renewed contracts with its main suppliers and diversified its energy sources, which strengthens its operational resilience 1.
Weaknesses
- The shareholder base is concentrated, and the majority shareholder controls nearly half of the shares, which limits the influence of other investors 1.
- The group is exposed to volatile raw material and natural gas prices, which affect production costs 1.
- The Klaipėda environmental dispute remains unresolved, and uncertainties about its amount and timing are significant 1.
Opportunities
- The acquisition of Huchtemeier Papier GmbH could open new distribution channels for hygienic products in Germany 1.
- Investment in energy efficiency technologies and solar panels could reduce operating costs over the longer term 1.
- Expansion of recycling and secondary raw material activities could reduce dependence on primary raw materials 1.
Threats
- An unfavourable outcome in the environmental dispute could create significant financial obligations for the subsidiary concerned 1.
- Rising natural gas prices could affect margins if costs cannot be passed on to customers 1.
- The European Union environmental regulatory framework may change, which could increase compliance costs 1.
Risks
- Environmental disputehigh
The Environmental Protection Department filed a civil claim against the subsidiary Grigeo Klaipėda AB, and management considers that there are numerous uncertainties about the outcome 1.
- Criminal charges against the subsidiaryhigh
The subsidiary Grigeo Klaipėda AB is on trial in a criminal case linked to the operation of its wastewater plant, and the trial began in 2022 1.
- Raw material pricesmedium
Prices in the paper and wood industry were volatile, and annual contracts do not fully remove the risk of price variation 1.
- Energy pricesmedium
Natural gas prices rose in 2025, and energy costs could affect the group's margins 1.
- Tax inspectionslow
The tax authorities may inspect documents for prior years, and management is not aware of circumstances that would give rise to a material tax liability 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the environmental dispute is settled for less than the amount claimed, the financial impact could be limited, and management estimates the potential costs as limited 1.
- The group has an integrated position in packaging and tissue paper, and recent acquisitions extend its presence in the German market 1.
- Investments in solar energy and energy efficiency could gradually reduce dependence on volatile energy prices 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the court accepts the calculation method in the civil claim, the subsidiary's financial obligations could be much larger than management's estimates 1.
- Rising natural gas prices and volatile raw material prices could compress margins if these costs cannot be passed on 1.
- A concentrated shareholder base could limit the liquidity of the shares and the influence of minority investors on strategic decisions 1.
What to watch
- The Environmental Protection Department's decision on the restoration plan proposed by Grigeo Klaipėda AB2026
- The outcome of the criminal trial and the civil claim in the Klaipėda casenext 10-K
- Integration of the Huchtemeier Papier GmbH acquisition and its contribution to hygienic product sales2026
- Development of natural gas prices and their impact on production costsQ1 2026
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Grigeo Group produces raw materials and products from paper and board, including corrugated board and packaging products, through subsidiaries such as Grigeo Packaging UAB and Grigeo Klaipėda AB 1. The parent company, Grigeo Group AB, is a public limited company listed on Nasdaq Vilnius under the ticker GRG1L 1. The group also includes tissue paper activities through Grigeo Tissue UAB and its Polish subsidiary Grigeo Tissue sp. z o.o 1.
The shareholder structure is concentrated: Ginvildos Investicija UAB held 47.35% of the shares at 31 December 2025, and its ultimate beneficial owner is the person who controls that company 1. The company did not acquire any own shares during the reporting period 1. Key management is made up of the chairman of the board and the chief executive, whose interests are described in the annual report 1.
The group expanded through the acquisition of the German company Huchtemeier Papier GmbH, which sells hygienic paper products, announced in October 2025 1. This acquisition complements the group's portfolio of hygienic and tissue paper and reflects a strategy of consolidation in consumer segments 1.
Segments
Corrugated board and packaging
The corrugated board and packaging segment is represented by Grigeo Packaging UAB, Mena Pak AT in Ukraine and Grigeo Paper Packaging UAB 1. It is the group's main industrial segment and uses raw materials from the paper and wood industry 1.
Market context
The market for corrugated board packaging and tissue paper in Central and Eastern Europe is the group's main sales market, and demand depends on industrial and retail activity 1. Raw material prices in the paper and wood industry were volatile in 2025, and the price of natural gas rose 1.
The energy market influenced the group's costs in 2025: electricity prices stayed at the 2024 level, and biofuel prices in the Baltpool zone were relatively stable 1. The company installed solar panels on the roofs of production buildings, which partly reduces its dependence on energy 1.
Trends
- Volatility of raw material pricesmixed
Raw material prices in the paper and wood industry were volatile, and the group renewed annual contracts with its main suppliers, linking prices to relevant indices 1. This practice could limit the impact of sudden changes.
- Energy costsheadwind
In 2025 natural gas prices rose, while electricity stayed stable; the group renewed energy contracts with a focus on supplier reliability 1. Rising energy costs could affect margins if prices remain high.
- Investment in energy efficiencytailwind
The group invests in new technologies that increase energy efficiency and reduce the need for energy resources, and the installed solar panels contribute to electricity production 1. These investments could reduce exposure to energy prices.
- The environmental disputeheadwind
A dispute over wastewater treatment at Grigeo Klaipėda AB is still ongoing, and the Environmental Protection Department has not approved the company's proposed restoration plan 1. The outcome could have significant financial effects.
Competitive position
Grigeo operates in competitive markets for packaging and tissue paper, where it competes with regional and European producers of corrugated board and hygienic paper 1. The supplied sources do not explicitly name competitors, so the analysis of competitive position is limited to the information in the annual report.
The group's advantage lies in vertical integration, from producing raw material to finished packaging, and in its presence in several European markets 1. Expansion through acquisitions, such as Huchtemeier Papier GmbH, strengthens this position 1.
- Regional corrugated board producers
Competitors from Central and Eastern Europe, not named individually in the supplied sources.
- European tissue paper producers
European companies selling hygienic paper in consumer markets, not named in the supplied sources.
- Corrugated packaging suppliers
Competitors active in industrial packaging, not explicitly named in the source.
- Distributors of hygienic paper products
Companies competing with the hygiene division, not named in the source.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202509 Apr 2026
- Annual report 202429 Apr 2025
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AB Grigeo Group · 31 Dec 2025
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.