olivLaw · European equity research
Nordecon AS NCN1T.TL
Estonia · Nasdaq Tallinn · ISIN EE3100039496 · Vertical: Listed companies from Estonia
Nordecon AS is one of the leading construction companies in Estonia, active in building and infrastructure construction, with a growing share of revenue from outside the country. In 2020 group revenue grew by 26.5%, while the infrastructure segment was affected by a shortage of road construction projects in the Estonian market.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Nordecon AS (NCN1T.TL) stock was 0.57 EUR (+5.95% on the day), with market capitalisation 17.6 m EUR, P/E 7.1 on diluted EPS of 0.08 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.68%, beta 0.32, 52-week range 0.52–0.76 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 66.0
- strong (55–70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 0.52 – 0.56
- above the upper band · %B 1.33 · band width 7.6%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 0.56 / 0.61
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.00 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +2.5% | −0.6% | +3.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −4.4% | −4.2% | −0.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.0% | +4.3% | −9.3 pp | — |
| Year to date | −17.6% | +7.5% | −25.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −11.5% | +9.9% | −21.4 pp | −5.9% |
| 3 years | −21.2% | +49.8% | −71.0 pp | −8.0% |
| 5 years | −56.5% | +42.8% | −99.3 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 2-quarter history (min 9.4, median 11.8, max 14.2; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 234.1 m | 296.1 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +26.5% |
| Net income | 3.4 m | 2.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −27.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −27.3% |
| net % | 1.4% | 0.8% |
| Free cash flow | 7.4 m | 2.2 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2020 · 31 Dec 2020
- Cash
- 12.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 7.4 m EUR
- Net debt
- -5.2 m EUR
- Equity
- 37.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 135.1 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.20x
- Current ratio
- 1.01x
- ROE
- 7.0%
- ROA
- 2.0%
- FCF margin
- 0.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 234.1 m | 296.1 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Cost of revenue | 222.3 m | 285.1 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Gross profit | 11.8 m | 11.0 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Operating income | 4.3 m | 3.6 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Interest expense | 1.2 m | 2.7 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Pre-tax income | 4.9 m | 4.6 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Income tax | 764.0 k | 508.0 k | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Net income | 3.4 m | 2.5 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.11 | 0.08 | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.08 | 0.02 | esef· 19 May 2021derived |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 7.0 m | 12.6 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Receivables | 37.6 m | 50.0 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Inventories | 21.1 m | 22.5 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Current assets | 67.6 m | 87.7 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 19.0 m | 18.1 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Total assets | 117.6 m | 135.1 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 16.3 m | 7.4 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Current liabilities | 66.8 m | 86.5 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Total liabilities | 84.9 m | 97.8 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Equity | 32.8 m | 37.2 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 30.7 m | 30.8 m | esef· 19 May 2021derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 8.0 m | 2.4 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Capex | 594.0 k | 254.0 k | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Free cash flow | 7.4 m ≈ | 2.2 m ≈ | esef· 19 May 2021derived |
| Investing cash flow | 220.0 k | 8.3 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Financing cash flow | -8.9 m | -5.2 m | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Dividends paid | 2.4 m | 472.0 k | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
| Share repurchases | 1.9 m | 0 | esef· 19 May 2021verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 60 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 17.6 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality63
- Returns63
- Balance sheet7
- Valuation84
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.54 – 5.41 EUR.
Methods computed but outside the aggregate range: Dividend discount (DDM) (a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate).
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)3.18 – 5.41 (Mid 3.98)WACC 7.3% · starting FCFF 4.6 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 79%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.54 – 1.35 (Mid 1.12)6 companies used · median multiple 14.0x · quartiles 6.7x – 16.9xHPR1T.TL, PRF1T.TL, SFG1T.TL, TAL1T.TL, TSM1T.TL, TVE1T.TL
- Dividend discount (DDM)outside the aggregate0.21 – 0.28 (Mid 0.24)a small share of earnings is paid as dividends (capital returns through buybacks): the dividend model does not describe the value and stays outside the aggregate
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 60/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.6% | 88 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 0.8% | 0 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 88.8% | 84 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 18 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 7.1x | 71 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 12.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 2.7% | 38 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 21.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet7/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality63/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns63/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation84/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Nordecon AS (NCN1T.TL). Latest full fiscal year: 2020; data up to 2020-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 296.1 m EUR in 2020; YoY growth 26.5%; net margin 0.8%; ROE 7.7%.
The estimated value range is 1.86–3.38 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 2.55 EUR, the price of 0.57 EUR leaves a potential of 347.8% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 77.7% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 60/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 8.6%
- FCF conversion: 88.8%
- P/E (TTM): 7.1x
- FCF yield: 12.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 21.6%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 0.8%
- Interest coverage: 1.3x
- Current ratio: 1.0x
- The valuation methods diverge
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Estonia · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallink Grupp | 479.7 m | 34.4 | 2.0% | 1.8% | +61.7% | +15% / −4% |
| TSM1T.TLaktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM | 327.2 m | 17.1 | 5.1% | 16.0% | +2.5% | −1% / +7% |
| TVE1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallinna Vesi | 217.4 m | 16.4 | 11.2% | 20.6% | +5.3% | +2% / +0% |
| LVN1T.TLLiven AS | 38.2 m | 70.0 | 3.1% | 2.0% | −23.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SFG1T.TLAktsiaselts Silvano Fashion Group | 37.2 m | 3.8 | 20.1% | 16.9% | +1.6% | −7% / −6% |
| NCN1T.TLNordecon AS | 17.6 m | 7.1 | 7.7% | 0.8% | +26.5% | −10% / −8% |
| HPR1T.TLHepsor AS | 16.3 m | 11.7 | 7.2% | 10.8% | −14.0% | −31% / −41% |
| PRF1T.TLAS PRFoods | 2.0 m | 5.1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | −53.5% | −12% / −75% |
| PKG1T.TLAS Pro Kapital Grupp | — | — | 106.4% | 69.0% | +216.0% | −47% / −46% |
| TKM1T.TLTallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS | — | — | 8.8% | 2.6% | +3.4% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for NCN1T.TL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.37 Total return -32% · Per year -32% | 0.66 Total return 18% · Per year 18% | 0.98 Total return 76% · Per year 76% |
| 3 years | 0.44 Total return -15% · Per year -5% | 0.87 Total return 63% · Per year 18% | 1.42 Total return 162% · Per year 38% |
| 5 years | 0.52 Total return 6% · Per year 1% | 1.15 Total return 122% · Per year 17% | 2.04 Total return 285% · Per year 31% |
- Exit P/E± 0.22
- Net margin± 0.15
- Annual revenue growth± 0.11
- Annual dilution± 0.01
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Nordecon AS is one of the leading construction companies in Estonia, active in building and infrastructure construction, with a growing share of revenue from outside the country. In 2020 group revenue grew by 26.5% 1, while the infrastructure segment was affected by a shortage of road construction projects in the Estonian market 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- A leading position in the Estonian construction market with a broad range of integrated services.
- A balance between building and infrastructure segments that helps diversify risks.
- Experience in public projects and in own housing development in Tallinn and Tartu.
Weaknesses
- Heavy dependence on the Estonian market remains a vulnerability, although it is gradually declining.
- A relatively heavy loan burden exposes the group to rises in floating base rates.
- Difficulty attracting and retaining a skilled permanent workforce.
Opportunities
- Growing the contribution of the Swedish and Finnish markets could offset weakness elsewhere.
- Public projects in education, health and defence could support demand over the medium term.
- A revival of infrastructure projects in Estonia could rebalance the revenue structure.
Threats
- A shortage of road projects in Estonia could reduce volumes in the infrastructure segment.
- The conflict in Ukraine and hryvnia volatility could affect results from that country.
- Higher base interest rates could significantly increase financing costs.
Risks
- Exposure to floating interest rateshigh
Most floating-rate financing is linked to EURIBOR, and a rise in these rates could reduce profit through higher financing costs 1.
- Currency risk in Ukrainehigh
The hryvnia's weakening generated exchange losses on euro loans held by the Ukrainian subsidiaries, and the risk remains high while the political and economic situation is strained 1.
- Shortage of skilled workforcemedium
Finding quality permanent staff is a challenge for the whole sector and may influence company performance 1.
- Environmental and site safety risksmedium
Asphalt plants, quarries and road works affect the environment, and safety risks depend partly on subcontractors 1.
- Ethics and compliance riskslow
Breaches of honest business practices could bring reputational and legal consequences, and the group states a zero-tolerance policy 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If revenue from foreign markets keeps growing and public projects stay supported, the company could benefit from a more diversified revenue base 1.
- A building-dominated order book and rapid growth in public buildings can support activity volumes 1.
- Vertical integration through concrete, machinery rental and road maintenance may offer operational advantages 1.
What would break the thesis
- If the shortage of infrastructure projects in Estonia persists, the infrastructure segment could remain under pressure 1.
- Exposure to floating interest rates could reduce profitability if base rates rise 1.
- Instability in Ukraine and the weakening of the local currency could continue to generate losses 1.
What to watch
- Development of revenue from outside Estonia and its share of the total2021
- Volume of new road infrastructure projects in Estonia2021
- Situation in Ukraine and the hryvnia rate, including resumption of suspended projects2021
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The core business of the Nordecon group is general contracting and project management in building and infrastructure construction, including commercial, industrial and apartment buildings, road construction and maintenance, specialist and environmental engineering, concrete works and housing development 1. Revenue for 2020 reached 296,082 thousand euros 1. The group operates mainly in Estonia, with activity also in Finland, Sweden and Ukraine, where activity remained comparable to 2019 1.
The group structure was streamlined in 2020: Embach Ehitus OÜ became a subsidiary from March, and Eston Ehitus AS merged into the parent in October 1. Meanwhile, the 49% interest in Pigipada OÜ was sold at the end of 2020 for a total price of 3,596 thousand euros 1.
The group aims to keep its Buildings and Infrastructure segments in balance to diversify risks and continue operating when volumes in one subsegment fall sharply 1. Growing the contribution of foreign markets is one of its stated strategic goals 1.
Segments
Market context
The Estonian construction market is affected by a shortage of infrastructure projects, which has shaped the group's revenue structure 1. The company relies on the domestic market, which made up 82% of revenue in 2020, while increasingly diversifying toward Sweden and Finland 1.
In Ukraine activity remained stable, but real estate development requiring major investment has been suspended until the situation improves, and the hryvnia exchange rate and regional conflict remain sources of volatility 1.
Trends
- Rising demand for public buildingstailwind
Public building projects such as health centres, schools and defence facilities grew strongly in 2020 and are among the largest projects in progress 1. If public funding stays supportive, this subsegment could sustain revenue.
- Shortage of infrastructure projectsheadwind
The lack of infrastructure projects in the Estonian market directly affects the group's revenue structure and the contribution of the infrastructure segment 1.
- Expansion into foreign marketstailwind
Revenue from outside Estonia reached its highest level in recent years, and geographic diversification reduces reliance on a single market 1.
- Currency volatility and conditions in Ukrainemixed
The weakening of the hryvnia and volatile conditions in Ukraine generated exchange losses and reduced revenue from that market 1.
Competitive position
Nordecon competes in the Estonian construction market with other general contractors and road infrastructure firms, and the analysed sources do not explicitly identify US-listed competitors. The company differentiates itself by combining construction with concrete services, machinery rental and road maintenance 1.
Competition for skilled labour is a challenge for the whole sector, and the company also relies on subcontractors for personnel with specific skills 1.
- Other general contractors in Estonia
Local construction firms competing for the same public and private projects described in the report.
- Road infrastructure contractors
Firms competing for rehabilitation and maintenance contracts from the road administration.
- Construction firms in Sweden and Finland
Local companies active in markets where the group is expanding through subcontracting and general contracts.
- Concrete suppliers and subcontractors
Specialist concrete and engineering firms that can be both competitors and partners to the group.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202019 May 2021
- Annual report 202019 May 2021
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2020-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Nordecon AS · 31 Dec 2020
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.