olivLaw · European equity research
Tallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS TKM1T.TL
Estonia · Nasdaq Tallinn · ISIN EE0000001105 · Vertical: Listed companies from Estonia
Tallinna Kaubamaja Grupp is an Estonian retail and trade group running Selver supermarkets, Kaubamaja department stores, a car trade business and other segments. The year 2020 was shaped by the pandemic, with supermarket sales rising while net profit fell, so the performance of food retail and online trade matters a great deal for the company, according to its annual report.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, Tallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS (TKM1T.TL) stock was 8.87 EUR (+0.23% on the day), with beta 0.01, 52-week range 8.85–9.90 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 32.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 8.83 – 8.99
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.27 · band width 1.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 9.00 / 9.29
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.04 / -0.04
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.6% | −0.6% | −0.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −3.2% | −4.2% | +1.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −4.2% | +4.3% | −8.5 pp | — |
| Year to date | −6.6% | +7.5% | −14.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | −3.6% | +9.9% | −13.5 pp | −8.7% |
| 3 years | −10.3% | +49.8% | −60.2 pp | −6.8% |
| 5 years | −21.1% | +42.8% | −63.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
EPS unavailable in the issuer's structured filings (e.g. a partnership reports per unit, not per share).
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 717.2 m | 741.9 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +3.4% |
| Net income | 31.8 m | 19.5 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −38.6% |
| Diluted EPS | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 4.4% | 2.6% |
| Free cash flow | 42.2 m | 45.7 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2020 · 31 Dec 2020
- Cash
- 32.8 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 217.3 m EUR
- Net debt
- 184.6 m EUR
- Equity
- 223.0 m EUR
- Total assets
- 597.3 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.97x
- Current ratio
- 0.83x
- ROE
- 8.8%
- ROA
- 3.5%
- FCF margin
- 6.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 717.2 m | 741.9 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Operating income | 40.4 m | 28.0 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Interest expense | 3.0 m | 4.2 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Pre-tax income | 37.7 m | 24.0 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Income tax | 5.9 m | 4.5 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Net income | 31.8 m | 19.5 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 40.6 m | 32.8 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Receivables | 16.9 m | 15.9 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Current assets | 135.8 m | 126.0 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 319.2 m | 388.8 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Total assets | 522.3 m | 597.3 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Accounts payable | 89.8 m | 102.8 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Long-term debt | 157.9 m | 217.3 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Current liabilities | 136.3 m | 152.2 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Total liabilities | 300.3 m | 374.3 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Equity | 222.0 m | 223.0 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2019 | 2020 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 64.8 m | 73.2 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Capex | 22.6 m | 27.6 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Free cash flow | 42.2 m ≈ | 45.7 m ≈ | esef· 18 May 2021derived |
| Investing cash flow | -17.5 m | -42.4 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Financing cash flow | -43.9 m | -38.8 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
| Dividends paid | 28.9 m | 29.7 m | esef· 18 May 2021verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: unavailable
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · input data missing
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · input data missing
no valuation method could be computed
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 6.1% | 63 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | 2.6% | 44 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 234.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.6x | 79 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 2 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 65.1% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet48/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality68/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial78/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partialunavailable · 0/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Tallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS (TKM1T.TL). Latest full fiscal year: 2020; data up to 2020-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 741.9 m EUR in 2020; YoY growth 3.4%; net margin 2.6%; ROE 8.8%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 234.3%
- Interest coverage: 6.6x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 65.1%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.8x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Estonia · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallink Grupp | 479.7 m | 34.4 | 2.0% | 1.8% | +61.7% | +15% / −4% |
| TSM1T.TLaktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM | 327.2 m | 17.1 | 5.1% | 16.0% | +2.5% | −1% / +7% |
| TVE1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallinna Vesi | 217.4 m | 16.4 | 11.2% | 20.6% | +5.3% | +2% / +0% |
| LVN1T.TLLiven AS | 38.2 m | 70.0 | 3.1% | 2.0% | −23.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SFG1T.TLAktsiaselts Silvano Fashion Group | 37.2 m | 3.8 | 20.1% | 16.9% | +1.6% | −7% / −6% |
| NCN1T.TLNordecon AS | 17.6 m | 7.1 | 7.7% | 0.8% | +26.5% | −10% / −8% |
| HPR1T.TLHepsor AS | 16.3 m | 11.7 | 7.2% | 10.8% | −14.0% | −31% / −41% |
| PRF1T.TLAS PRFoods | 2.0 m | 5.1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | −53.5% | −12% / −75% |
| PKG1T.TLAS Pro Kapital Grupp | — | — | 106.4% | 69.0% | +216.0% | −47% / −46% |
| TKM1T.TLTallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS | — | — | 8.8% | 2.6% | +3.4% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TKM1T.TL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Scenarios are not available. input data missing
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Tallinna Kaubamaja Grupp is an Estonian retail and trade group running Selver supermarkets, Kaubamaja department stores, a car trade business and other segments. The year 2020 was shaped by the pandemic, with supermarket sales rising while net profit fell, so the performance of food retail and online trade matters a great deal for the company, according to its annual report 1.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Pandemichigh
Health restrictions temporarily closed fashion stores and changed consumption, with effects on revenue 1.
- Lower profitmedium
Net profit declined in 2020, and unusual costs affected the result 1.
- Car supply chainmedium
Interruptions in manufacturer deliveries could limit new vehicle sales 1.
- City-centre declinemedium
Lower pedestrian traffic in the centre affects the flagship Kaubamaja store 1.
- Asset impairmentlow
Writing down the ABC King brand and excess footwear stock weighed on the result 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
What to watch
- Development of online sales and e-Selver2021
- Recovery of footfall at the city-centre Kaubamaja stores2021
- New vehicle deliveries in the car segment2021
- Completion of Kulinaaria investments and effects on production2021
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Tallinna Kaubamaja Grupp is a retail and trade group in Estonia, active in supermarkets, department stores, car trade, footwear and real estate. Consolidated sales revenue was 741.9 million euros in 2020, up 3.4% on the previous year, while net profit fell to 19.5 million euros 1. The group also runs the Partnerkaart loyalty programme, with more than 694,000 loyal customers in 2020 1.
The structure includes the Selver chain, which generated most of the sales, along with Kaubamaja, I.L.U. cosmetics, Viking Security and the car division. The pandemic changed buying habits, with fewer city-centre visits and stronger demand for essential household goods, which hurt fashion stores 1. The company also invested in expanding production at Kulinaaria OÜ as part of its food growth plan 1.
Profitability remained modest, with a net margin of about 3% in 2020, which shows how sensitive results are to one-off costs and pandemic effects 1. Future results could be influenced by the development of online trade and the operational efficiency of the store network 1.
Segments
Market context
The retail market in Estonia is small and concentrated, and supermarkets and online trade gained ground in 2020 amid restrictions and changing consumption habits 1. Viking Security, the third-largest security company in Estonia by market share, shows the group also operates in complementary services 1. Demand for essential goods stayed robust while fashion suffered 1.
The car market depends on manufacturer deliveries, and in 2020 stock shortages limited sales, which makes the segment sensitive to external supply chains 1. The real estate and fashion retail markets remained under pressure from the pandemic 1.
Trends
- Online tradetailwind
The group's online sales grew strongly in 2020, and e-Selver covered almost all of Estonia, which could support long-term growth if customers stay with these channels 1.
- Changing buying behaviourmixed
Customers shop less often but spend more per visit and prefer essential products, which favours supermarkets and hurts fashion stores 1.
- Lower city-centre footfallheadwind
Visitor numbers in the city centre fell due to fewer tourists and empty offices, directly affecting the Kaubamaja store in Tallinn 1.
- Car industry supply chainsheadwind
Car manufacturers struggled to deliver new vehicles, and stocks stayed below normal levels through 2020 1.
Competitive position
The food segment competes with other supermarket chains in Estonia, while fashion retail competes with global online platforms offering wide assortment and fast delivery 1. The group's advantage lies in its physical network and loyalty programme 1.
In car trade the group competes with regional importers and dealers, and in security with other firms offering cash-in-transit services 1. Competitive pressure is also driven by the shift toward e-commerce 1.
- Estonian supermarket chains
Direct competitors in the food segment, not known to be listed in the US based on the available sources.
- Global online fashion platforms
Competitors for apparel and footwear customers, with advantages in assortment and delivery speed.
- Regional car importers and dealers
Competition for new vehicle sales and after-sales services.
- Estonian security companies
Competition in security, surveillance and cash-in-transit services.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202018 May 2021
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2020-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / Tallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS · 31 Dec 2020
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.