olivLaw · European equity research
aktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM TSM1T.TL
Estonia · Nasdaq Tallinn · ISIN EE3100021635 · Vertical: Listed companies from Estonia
aktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM runs the ports of Tallinn, the ferry services to the islands of Saaremaa and Hiiumaa, icebreaking services and real estate activities around its harbours, through subsidiaries such as TS Laevad. The company focuses on reducing emissions and marine pollution, in a context where European climate rules could change demand for port services. GHG emissions reached 21656 tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2024, and 73% of total energy consumption came from renewable sources.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, aktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM (TSM1T.TL) stock was 1.20 EUR (+0.34% on the day), with market capitalisation 327.2 m EUR, P/E 17.1 on diluted EPS of 0.07 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 6.10%, beta 0.11, 52-week range 1.18–1.48 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.7
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.19 – 1.21
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.35 · band width 2.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.21 / 1.31
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.01 / -0.01
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −1.0% | −0.6% | −0.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | −5.4% | −4.2% | −1.2 pp | — |
| 6 months | −17.7% | +4.3% | −22.1 pp | — |
| Year to date | −7.7% | +7.5% | −15.2 pp | — |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +9.9% | −9.1 pp | −8.7% |
| 3 years | +4.4% | +49.8% | −45.5 pp | −9.2% |
| 5 years | −35.4% | +42.8% | −78.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 67 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 14.2, median 15.1, max 18.8; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 121.7 m | 116.6 m | 119.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | −4.2% | +2.5% |
| Net income | 25.6 m | 15.9 m | 19.2 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | −37.9% | +20.6% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | −40.0% | +16.7% |
| net % | 21.0% | 13.6% | 16.0% |
| Free cash flow | 36.9 m | 26.0 m | 9.8 m |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 17.2 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 172.7 m EUR
- Net debt
- 155.4 m EUR
- Equity
- 377.6 m EUR
- Total assets
- 629.9 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.46x
- Current ratio
- 1.26x
- ROE
- 5.1%
- ROA
- 3.1%
- FCF margin
- 8.2%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 121.7 m | 116.6 m | 119.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 30.8 m | 24.6 m | 29.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 2.0 m | 7.4 m | 8.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 29.8 m | 18.9 m | 22.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 4.2 m | 3.0 m | 3.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 25.6 m | 15.9 m | 19.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.07 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.07 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 44.4 m | 29.7 m | 17.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Receivables | — | 12.1 m | 12.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 749.0 k | 550.0 k | 695.0 k | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 52.7 m | 42.4 m | 56.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 550.3 m | 545.3 m | 554.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 1.7 m | 2.1 m | 2.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 621.2 m | 606.2 m | 629.9 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 8.8 m | 9.5 m | 7.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 171.5 m | 157.6 m | 172.7 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 37.4 m | 34.9 m | 44.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 240.3 m | 228.5 m | 252.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 381.0 m | 377.7 m | 377.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 255.9 m | 264.7 m | 273.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 52.1 m | 44.0 m | 48.7 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Capex | 15.2 m | 17.9 m | 39.0 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 36.9 m ≈ | 26.0 m ≈ | 9.8 m ≈ | esef· 21 May 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -114.0 k | -17.2 m | -45.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -42.5 m | -41.4 m | -15.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Dividends paid | 25.3 m | 19.0 m | 19.0 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 42 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 327.2 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
- Quality49
- Returns50
- Balance sheet34
- Valuation32
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 0.39 – 1.35 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)0.42 – 1.19 (Mid 0.69)WACC 7.0% · starting FCFF 16.9 m EUR · terminal value share of EV 79%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 17.7%
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E0.39 – 1.06 (Mid 0.66)6 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 5.6x – 15.2xHPR1T.TL, NCN1T.TL, PRF1T.TL, SFG1T.TL, TAL1T.TL, TVE1T.TL
- Dividend discount (DDM)0.99 – 1.35 (Mid 1.15)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 42/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 4.8% | 50 (vs peers) | 17% |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.0% | 67 (vs peers) | 10% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 50.9% | 30 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 3.5x | 31 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.3x | 39 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 17.1x | 29 (vs peers) | 17% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.0% | 37 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.8% | 83 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 194.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet34/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality49/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
aktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM (TSM1T.TL). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 119.6 m EUR in 2024; YoY growth 2.5%; net margin 16.0%; ROE 5.1%.
The estimated value range is 0.42–1.19 EUR per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 0.69 EUR, the price of 1.20 EUR leaves a potential of -42.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -73.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 42/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.8%
What contradicts it
- FCF conversion: 50.9%
- P/E (TTM): 17.1x
- Payout ratio (FCF): 194.8%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA.
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Estonia · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallink Grupp | 479.7 m | 34.4 | 2.0% | 1.8% | +61.7% | +15% / −4% |
| TSM1T.TLaktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM | 327.2 m | 17.1 | 5.1% | 16.0% | +2.5% | −1% / +7% |
| TVE1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallinna Vesi | 217.4 m | 16.4 | 11.2% | 20.6% | +5.3% | +2% / +0% |
| LVN1T.TLLiven AS | 38.2 m | 70.0 | 3.1% | 2.0% | −23.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SFG1T.TLAktsiaselts Silvano Fashion Group | 37.2 m | 3.8 | 20.1% | 16.9% | +1.6% | −7% / −6% |
| NCN1T.TLNordecon AS | 17.6 m | 7.1 | 7.7% | 0.8% | +26.5% | −10% / −8% |
| HPR1T.TLHepsor AS | 16.3 m | 11.7 | 7.2% | 10.8% | −14.0% | −31% / −41% |
| PRF1T.TLAS PRFoods | 2.0 m | 5.1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | −53.5% | −12% / −75% |
| PKG1T.TLAS Pro Kapital Grupp | — | — | 106.4% | 69.0% | +216.0% | −47% / −46% |
| TKM1T.TLTallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS | — | — | 8.8% | 2.6% | +3.4% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TSM1T.TL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 0.69 Total return -38% · Per year -38% | 1.23 Total return 9% · Per year 9% | 1.85 Total return 62% · Per year 62% |
| 3 years | 0.65 Total return -33% · Per year -12% | 1.29 Total return 26% · Per year 8% | 2.14 Total return 102% · Per year 26% |
| 5 years | 0.60 Total return -29% · Per year -7% | 1.35 Total return 45% · Per year 8% | 2.47 Total return 149% · Per year 20% |
- Exit P/E± 0.32
- Net margin± 0.23
- Annual revenue growth± 0.19
- Annual dilution± 0.02
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
aktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM runs the ports of Tallinn, the ferry services to the islands of Saaremaa and Hiiumaa, icebreaking services and real estate activities around its harbours, through subsidiaries such as TS Laevad. The company focuses on reducing emissions and marine pollution, in a context where European climate rules could change demand for port services. GHG emissions reached 21656 tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2024 1, and 73% of total energy consumption came from renewable sources 1.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company holds ISO-certified management systems and high customer satisfaction, reconfirmed in the annual report 1.
- A high share of renewable energy in total consumption, and energy management systems already in operation on ferries 1.
- Sewage infrastructure lets ships discharge at certain harbours at no extra cost 1.
Weaknesses
- Passenger revenue depends on the number of ferry calls, which could fall with high fuel costs 1.
- A large share of cruise ships do not discharge sewage at the quay, which raises questions about meeting environmental targets 1.
- The icebreaker Botnica cannot operate outside the icebreaking season, which limits asset utilisation 1.
Opportunities
Risks
- Global economic instabilityhigh
Economic risks, including possible overheating and rapid inflation, could reduce demand for port services 1.
- Climate regulationhigh
European environmental policy could change demand and the cost base, with long-term effects on port services 1.
- Expiry of the state contractmedium
If no use is found for the ferries when the long-term state contract expires, revenue could be affected 1.
- Cyber securitymedium
DDoS attacks and phishing emails remain frequent, although safeguards limited their impact in 2024 1.
- Energy supply disruptionslow
Technical failures or energy shortages are rare but high-impact events for operations 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If management systems and customer satisfaction stay high, the company could keep large customers and long-term contracts 1.
- Investment in renewable energy and emission reduction could support the port's position as climate rules tighten 1.
- Diversification into real estate and offshore work could reduce dependence on ferry traffic.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Trend in GHG emissions and the share of renewable energy2025
- Renewal or replacement of the long-term state contract for ferriesnext annual report
- Development of cruise demand and the number of ferry calls2025
- Results of real estate investments and Botnica's offshore work2025 annual report
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The Tallinna Sadam Group operates the Muuga, Old City (Vanasadam) and Paldiski South harbours, which serve ferries, cargo ships and cruise ships. The parent company leases land and premises to tenants and provides core port services. Subsidiary TS Laevad provides ferry transport to the islands of Saaremaa and Hiiumaa, while the icebreaker Botnica provides icebreaking and offshore work. The 2024 annual report stresses that the passenger business is most exposed to risk, as its revenue depends on the number of ferry calls 1.
Its largest customers are ferry operators, cargo terminal operators and the Republic of Estonia, under contracts for ferry service and for Botnica's icebreaking service 1. The company monitors customer satisfaction across six customer groups, and the 2024 index was 5.38 on a 6-point scale 1.
The company maintains integrated management systems meeting ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 standards, in place since 2003 and reconfirmed by the 2024 recertification audit 1. The year's priorities included environmental, digitalisation and innovation projects 1.
Segments
Ports and port operations
The Muuga, Old City and Paldiski South harbours handle cargo and passenger traffic. Reception facilities for ship-generated waste and sewage collection systems are central, and 98% of ship-generated waste received in 2024 was recycled or recovered 1.
Market context
The company's main market is the Baltic Sea, where the Tallinn ports compete mainly for ferry and cruise ship traffic 1. The annual report indicates that energy supply disruptions and global economic instability could affect demand for port services 1.
Demand for cargo transport depends on supply chains and general economic policies; the loss of the Eastern market has already changed the types of goods passing through the company's harbours 1.
Trends
- European climate regulationmixed
The Green Deal and the FIT for 55 package could raise maritime transport costs and reduce cruise demand in the Baltic Sea, if those costs are passed on to customers 1.
- Maritime decarbonisationtailwind
Onshore power supply and energy management systems could reduce emissions and attract vessels seeking ports with a smaller environmental footprint 1.
- High fuel pricesheadwind
High fuel prices could lead shipowners to charter vessels to other markets, reducing ferry calls at the company's harbours 1.
- Digitalisation and cyber securitymixed
Investment in digitalisation and cyber security is rising, in the context of DDoS attacks and phishing emails 1.
Competitive position
The Tallinn ports compete with other ports in the Baltic Sea region for ferry, cruise and cargo traffic. The annual report does not explicitly name competitors, so the list below reflects only companies mentioned in the source.
The company's position depends on keeping large customers, such as ferry and terminal operators, and on maintaining service quality, measured through customer satisfaction 1.
- Other Baltic Sea region ports
Competition comes from ports serving the same Baltic ferry and cruise routes, as the context of the report suggests.
- Island ferry operators
Operators that may choose to move their vessels to other markets compete for calls at the company's ports 1.
- Cargo terminal operators
Cargo terminals compete for logistics flows that could bypass the company's ports as supply chains are reorganised 1.
- Baltic Sea cruise operators
Cruise demand is sensitive to climate-related costs, which could lead operators to choose other destinations 1.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202421 May 2025
- Annual report 202324 Apr 2024
- Annual report 202224 Apr 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / aktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.