olivLaw · European equity research
AS Tallinna Vesi TVE1T.TL
Estonia · Nasdaq Tallinn · ISIN EE3100026436 · Vertical: Listed companies from Estonia
AS Tallinna Vesi is Estonia's largest water and wastewater provider, a vital service that reaches close to a third of the population. In 2024 it recorded revenue of 64.38 million EUR and a net profit of 13.28 million EUR, in a tougher Estonian economic climate than had been expected.
At the close of 06 Nov 2026, AS Tallinna Vesi (TVE1T.TL) stock was 10.80 EUR (+0.00% on the day), with market capitalisation 217.4 m EUR, P/E 16.4 on diluted EPS of 0.66 EUR over the last 12 months, dividend yield 4.72%, beta 0.06, 52-week range 10.55–11.65 EUR.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: ESEF annual reports and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
Loading chart…
Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 43.8
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 10.78 – 10.93
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.14 · band width 1.4%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 10.86 / 11.02
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.02 / -0.01
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | EURO STOXX 50 | vs EURO STOXX 50 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −0.5% | −0.6% | +0.2 pp | — |
| 3 months | −2.7% | −4.2% | +1.5 pp | — |
| 6 months | −6.9% | +4.3% | −11.2 pp | — |
| Year to date | −1.8% | +7.5% | −9.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | +1.4% | +9.9% | −8.5 pp | −8.7% |
| 3 years | −1.4% | +49.8% | −51.2 pp | −9.2% |
| 5 years | −26.5% | +42.8% | −69.4 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
ESEF annual reports carry no quarters: the results are annual (below).
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 3-quarter history (min 15.5, median 16.6, max 29.9; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 54.6 m | 61.1 m | 64.4 m |
| Revenue YoY | unavailable | +12.1% | +5.3% |
| Net income | 8.4 m | 12.8 m | 13.3 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | +52.8% | +3.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 0.42 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | +52.4% | +3.1% |
| net % | 15.4% | 21.0% | 20.6% |
| Free cash flow | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2024 · 31 Dec 2024
- Cash
- 3.6 m EUR
- Financial debt
- 114.2 m EUR
- Net debt
- 110.7 m EUR
- Equity
- 120.2 m EUR
- Total assets
- 313.8 m EUR
- Debt / equity
- 0.95x
- Current ratio
- 0.76x
- ROE
- 11.2%
- ROA
- 4.5%
- FCF margin
- unavailable
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (EUR)
Margins
Income statement · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 54.6 m | 61.1 m | 64.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 37.7 m | 37.1 m | 37.7 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 16.9 m | 24.1 m | 26.7 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Operating income | 11.3 m | 17.4 m | 19.0 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Interest expense | 682.0 k | 3.3 m | 4.4 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 10.6 m | 14.2 m | 14.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Income tax | 2.2 m | 1.4 m | 1.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Net income | 8.4 m | 12.8 m | 13.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 0.42 | 0.64 | 0.66 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Dividend per share | 0.65 | 0.33 | 0.51 | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
Balance sheet · EUR
| Line | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 12.7 m | 14.7 m | 3.6 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Inventories | 1.2 m | 1.1 m | 1.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Current assets | 22.8 m | 24.5 m | 15.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 229.9 m | 256.1 m | 296.3 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 688.0 k | 1.3 m | 2.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total assets | 253.4 m | 281.9 m | 313.8 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 10.2 m | 10.9 m | — | esef· 24 Apr 2024verified |
| Long-term debt | 76.7 m | 92.8 m | 114.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 18.5 m | 18.8 m | 20.5 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 142.6 m | 164.8 m | 193.7 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Equity | 110.8 m | 117.1 m | 120.2 m | esef· 21 May 2025verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 20.0 m | 20.1 m | 20.1 m | esef· 21 May 2025derived |
Cash flow · EUR
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
06 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 217.4 m EUR
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
The data is older than the freshness threshold.
Score by group
38% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 3.70 – 10.39 EUR.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (EUR per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · input data missing
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · input data missing
- Peers: P/E3.70 – 10.39 (Mid 6.21)6 companies used · median multiple 9.4x · quartiles 5.6x – 15.7xHPR1T.TL, NCN1T.TL, PRF1T.TL, SFG1T.TL, TAL1T.TL, TSM1T.TL
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.94 – 9.46 (Mid 8.00)
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 3.0%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.5%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 8.5%
- Terminal growth
- 2.0%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 8.0% | 75 (vs peers) | 28% |
| Net margin · Quality | 20.6% | 89 (vs peers) | 17% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 43 (on a fixed band) | 17% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 11% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 16.4x | 43 (vs peers) | 28% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet26/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Quality80/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial43/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AKTSIASELTS TALLINNA VESI (TVE1T.TL). Latest full fiscal year: 2024; data up to 2024-12-31.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 64.4 m EUR in 2024; YoY growth 5.3%; net margin 20.6%; ROE 11.2%.
The estimated value range is 5.32–9.92 EUR per share (median of 2 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 7.11 EUR, the price of 10.80 EUR leaves a potential of -34.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -52.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 37.5% of at least 60%).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 8.0%
- Net margin: 20.6%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): FCF conversion, Revenue CAGR 3Y, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Listed companies from Estonia · same country · compared with 9 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAL1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallink Grupp | 479.7 m | 34.4 | 2.0% | 1.8% | +61.7% | +15% / −4% |
| TSM1T.TLaktsiaselts TALLINNA SADAM | 327.2 m | 17.1 | 5.1% | 16.0% | +2.5% | −1% / +7% |
| TVE1T.TLAktsiaselts Tallinna Vesi | 217.4 m | 16.4 | 11.2% | 20.6% | +5.3% | +2% / +0% |
| LVN1T.TLLiven AS | 38.2 m | 70.0 | 3.1% | 2.0% | −23.8% | unavailable / unavailable |
| SFG1T.TLAktsiaselts Silvano Fashion Group | 37.2 m | 3.8 | 20.1% | 16.9% | +1.6% | −7% / −6% |
| NCN1T.TLNordecon AS | 17.6 m | 7.1 | 7.7% | 0.8% | +26.5% | −10% / −8% |
| HPR1T.TLHepsor AS | 16.3 m | 11.7 | 7.2% | 10.8% | −14.0% | −31% / −41% |
| PRF1T.TLAS PRFoods | 2.0 m | 5.1 | 3.8% | 1.5% | −53.5% | −12% / −75% |
| PKG1T.TLAS Pro Kapital Grupp | — | — | 106.4% | 69.0% | +216.0% | −47% / −46% |
| TKM1T.TLTallinna Kaubamaja Grupp AS | — | — | 8.8% | 2.6% | +3.4% | −4% / −10% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for TVE1T.TL from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (EUR)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 6.43 Total return -37% · Per year -37% | 11.37 Total return 10% · Per year 10% | 17.12 Total return 65% · Per year 65% |
| 3 years | 6.34 Total return -30% · Per year -11% | 12.61 Total return 32% · Per year 10% | 20.83 Total return 113% · Per year 29% |
| 5 years | 6.26 Total return -24% · Per year -5% | 13.98 Total return 57% · Per year 9% | 25.34 Total return 171% · Per year 22% |
- Exit P/E± 3.15
- Net margin± 2.21
- Annual revenue growth± 1.80
- Annual dilution± 0.19
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
AS Tallinna Vesi is Estonia's largest water and wastewater provider, a vital service that reaches close to a third of the population. In 2024 it recorded revenue of 64.38 million EUR and a net profit of 13.28 million EUR, in a tougher Estonian economic climate than had been expected.
SWOT
Strengths
- Its leading position in Estonia and its vital infrastructure create a stable customer base and fairly predictable revenues.
- A clear commitment to water quality and to reducing environmental impact supports the company's reputation.
- A strategic framework with measurable targets for 2028 gives clear direction to investment.
Weaknesses
- Profit margins have fallen from earlier years, pointing to pressure on profitability.
- Leverage is high, and short-term liquidity has weakened.
- Activity is concentrated in a single market, which limits diversification.
Opportunities
- An economic recovery and lower interest rates could support investment and reduce financing costs.
- The need for heavy-rain and urban drainage solutions opens room to expand services.
- Digitalisation and automation could improve efficiency and reduce operating costs.
Threats
- High inflation and tax increases raise costs and may limit tariff adjustments.
- Climate change may reduce water availability and bring costly extreme events.
- Geopolitical and cyber risks could disrupt the continuity of essential services.
Risks
- Tariff regulationhigh
The water price is approved by the competition authority, and a more restrictive decision could reduce the company's revenues.
- Cost pressuremedium
Inflation and construction costs could push expenses up faster than approved tariffs.
- Indebtednessmedium
Short-term obligations are harder to cover than before, which could limit financial flexibility.
- Climate risksmedium
Droughts and heavy rainfall could affect operations and may require unplanned investment.
- Cyber and geopolitical riskslow
Cyberattacks or external tensions could disrupt essential services.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If the Estonian economy keeps recovering, steady demand for an essential service could support revenues over the long term.
- Investment in infrastructure and digitalisation could improve efficiency and margins in the coming years.
- A leading position in a regulated market gives a predictable basis for financial planning.
What would break the thesis
- If approved tariffs fail to keep pace with inflation, margins could continue to decline.
- High leverage and weak liquidity could limit the ability to finance large investments.
- Dependence on a single market and on regulatory decisions could expose the company to unexpected shocks.
What to watch
- Decision on the new water tariff2025
- Trend in net margin and net profitAnnual report 2025
- Progress toward the strategic targets for 20282028
- Trend in short-term liquidityAnnual report 2025
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Tallinna Vesi operates only in Estonia and provides drinking water and sewerage services to both household and business customers. The company presents itself as the country's largest water operator, with an essential role in the Tallinn community and in protecting the Baltic Sea. Its strategy focuses on sustainable urban development, reducing environmental impact, keeping services reliable, affordable prices and strong relations with shareholders and employees.
The company builds its value on vital infrastructure, which requires continuous investment in networks, treatment plants and modern stormwater solutions. Particular emphasis is placed on trenchless pipe rehabilitation, reducing water losses and cybersecurity. The annual report notes that its activity is mainly influenced by trends in the Estonian economy.
Margins eased in 2024 compared with peak years: the gross margin reached 41.43% and the net margin 20.63%. The short-term liquidity ratio of 0.76 shows that short-term obligations are harder to cover than in earlier years.
Segments
Drinking water supply
Supplying drinking water to households and businesses in Tallinn and its surroundings is one of the two core activities. The company aims for 100% of the water it delivers to meet the required quality, making this segment the foundation of its customer relationship.
Sewerage and wastewater treatment
Collecting and treating wastewater, including at the Paljassaare plant, forms the second major segment. Targets include reducing Scope 1 and 2 emissions and reducing the number of sewer blockages, both with a 2028 deadline.
Market context
The market is Estonia's public water services sector, where the company is the largest provider. The annual report describes an economy that has come out of recession: growth of 1.6% is expected in 2025 and about 3% in 2026-2027, while inflation, driven by tax increases, stays around 4% over the next two years.
Tariffs are approved by the Competition Authority, so the path of regulated prices depends on that approval procedure. Construction costs, measured by the construction price index, rose modestly in 2024 after a large jump in 2023.
Trends
- Recovery of the Estonian economytailwind
The economy is in a recovery phase, and the forecast GDP growth could support demand and the company's revenues if the pace holds.
- Inflation and tax increasesheadwind
Tax rises keep prices elevated, which raises operating costs and slows the tariff adjustments customers can accept.
- Climate changemixed
Longer droughts and more frequent heavy rainfall could reduce water availability and increase demand for drainage solutions, implying additional investment.
- Falling interest ratestailwind
Lower reference interest rates ease the cost of financing, particularly for a company with long-term obligations, though this could be offset by higher construction costs.
Competitive position
Tallinna Vesi is Estonia's largest water operator and works within a regulated framework in which direct competition for the same customers is limited. Its position rests on its own infrastructure network and the scale of its operations.
Competition comes mainly from other regional water operators and from efficiency solutions that reduce consumption. The annual report does not name competitors listed on a US exchange.
- Other regional water operators in Estonia
Local operators running water and sewerage services in other parts of the country; not identified in the source.
- Water efficiency solution providers
Companies selling technologies that reduce consumption, which can influence the volume sold.
- Urban drainage and stormwater operators
Firms offering stormwater solutions, a growing area because of heavy rainfall.
- Pipe network and rehabilitation contractors
Contractors competing for rehabilitation work, including trenchless technologies.
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
Annual reports (ESEF)
- Annual report 202421 May 2025
- Annual report 202324 Apr 2024
Sources
- [1] Annual report, fiscal year ended 2024-12-31 (ESEF) · SEC / AS Tallinna Vesi · 31 Dec 2024
Figures computed by olivLaw from ESEF annual reports and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.