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olivLaw · US equity research

Ameren Corporation AEE

Electric & Other Services Combined · SIC 4931 · Vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

113.08USD+2.46% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

Ameren Corporation (NYSE: AEE) is a utility holding company based in St. Louis whose earnings come mainly from rate-regulated electric transmission and distribution and natural gas delivery in Missouri and Illinois. In the first six months of 2026, net income attributable to common shareholders was $671 million, and the company reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $5.25 to $5.45 per diluted share. Investments in regulated businesses of $2.7 billion in the first six months underpin this growth.

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Ameren Corporation (AEE) stock was 113.08 USD (+2.46% on the day), with market capitalisation 31.3 bn USD, P/E 19.9 on diluted EPS of 5.68 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.58%, beta 0.14, 52-week range 97.25–118.32 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 2.1 bn USD (−5.8% YoY), net income of 316.0 m USD (+14.1% YoY), diluted EPS 1.13 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
31.3 bn USD
shares as of 30 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.9
Diluted EPS TTM 5.68 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
5.03%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.58%
DPS 12m 2.92
Beta (2y)
0.14
Volatility (1y) 18%
52-week range
97.25118.32

Price history

Loading chart…

Technical reading

RSI (14)
71.6
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
100.70 – 113.31
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.98 · band width 11.8%
SMA 50 / 200
104.68 / 108.52
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
2.19 / 1.57
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+13.4%−1.1%+14.5 pp—
3 months+3.8%−0.5%+4.2 pp—
6 months+3.2%+4.4%−1.2 pp—
Year to date+13.2%+12.3%+0.9 pp—
1 year+11.0%+13.5%−2.6 pp+2.6%
3 years+44.0%+76.4%−32.4 pp+33.5%
5 years+32.3%+63.7%−31.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−16.2%
26 Jun 2026 → 24 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−31.1%
20 Apr 2022 → 08 Feb 2024
Compound annual growth (5y)
+5.8%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
2.1 bn USD
−5.8% YoY
Net income
316.0 m USD
+14.1% YoY
Diluted EPS
1.13
+11.9% YoY
net / operating
15.1% / 21.9%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue2.2 bn1.9 bn2.1 bn2.2 bn2.7 bn1.8 bn2.2 bn2.1 bn
Operating income586.0 m198.0 m430.0 m411.0 m825.0 m360.0 m532.0 m459.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation382.0 m ≈382.0 m395.0 m398.0 m ≈406.0 m ≈413.0 m417.0 m424.0 m ≈
Interest expense173.0 m171.0 m175.0 m187.0 m208.0 m206.0 m204.0 m209.0 m
Pre-tax income514.0 m151.0 m340.0 m320.0 m693.0 m244.0 m418.0 m368.0 m
Income tax57.0 m-57.0 m50.0 m43.0 m52.0 m-9.0 m60.0 m52.0 m
Net income457.0 m208.0 m290.0 m277.0 m641.0 m253.0 m358.0 m316.0 m
Diluted EPS1.700.77 ≈1.071.012.350.92 ≈1.281.13
Operating cash flow897.0 m ≈817.0 m431.0 m862.0 m ≈1.1 bn ≈956.0 m421.0 m770.0 m ≈
Capex1.1 bn1.3 bn1.1 bn1.1 bn988.0 m1.0 bn1.6 bn1.1 bn ≈
Dividends paid179.0 m ≈179.0 m191.0 m193.0 m ≈192.0 m ≈192.0 m208.0 m206.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 33 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 16.1, median 20.8, max 27.4; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue6.3 bn5.9 bn5.8 bn6.4 bn8.0 bn7.5 bn7.6 bn8.8 bn
Revenue YoY+1.9%−6.1%−2.0%+10.4%+24.4%−5.7%+1.6%+15.4%
Net income821.0 m834.0 m877.0 m995.0 m1.1 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn1.5 bn
Net income YoY+57.0%+1.6%+5.2%+13.5%+8.4%+7.2%+2.6%+23.1%
Diluted EPS3.323.353.503.844.144.384.425.35
Diluted EPS YoY+55.1%+0.9%+4.5%+9.7%+7.8%+5.8%+0.9%+21.0%
net %13.1%14.1%15.1%15.6%13.6%15.4%15.6%16.6%
Free cash flow-116.0 m-241.0 m-1.5 bn-1.8 bn-1.1 bn-1.0 bn-1.6 bn-775.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
13.0 m USD
Financial debt
18.9 bn USD
Net debt
18.8 bn USD
Equity
13.5 bn USD
Total assets
48.5 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.39x
Current ratio
0.66x
ROE
11.3%
ROA
3.1%
FCF margin
-8.8%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
7.5 bn
2024
7.6 bn
2025
8.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.6 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
2.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.4 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
3.0 bn ≈
2024
3.0 bn ≈
2025
3.6 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
566.0 m
2024
663.0 m
2025
776.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.3 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
183.0 m
2024
83.0 m
2025
136.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
4.38
2024
4.42
2025
5.35

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
263.4 m
2024
267.4 m
2025
272.2 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
2.52
2024
2.68
2025
2.84

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
25.0 m
2024
7.0 m
2025
13.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
494.0 m
2024
525.0 m
2025
665.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Inventories
2023
733.0 m
2024
762.0 m
2025
774.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
2.2 bn
2024
2.3 bn
2025
2.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
33.8 bn
2024
36.3 bn
2025
39.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
411.0 m
2024
411.0 m
2025
411.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
40.8 bn
2024
44.6 bn
2025
48.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
1.1 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
536.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
643.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
15.1 bn
2024
17.3 bn
2025
18.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
3.3 bn
2024
3.4 bn
2025
3.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
11.5 bn
2024
12.2 bn
2025
13.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
3.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
3.6 bn
2024
4.3 bn
2025
4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-1.0 bn ≈
2024
-1.6 bn ≈
2025
-775.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.8 bn
2024
-4.5 bn
2025
-4.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.7 bn
2025
884.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
662.0 m
2024
714.0 m
2025
768.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 18 Feb 2026verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
15.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
3.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
8.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
33.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
23.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
10.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
10.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
21.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
8.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
43.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
24.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
-16.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Returns

ROE
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
3.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
6.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
51.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
20.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
5.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
1.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
2.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
0.4x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
3.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
4.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Free cash flow
-1.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF conversion
-89.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Cash conversion
84.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
24 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
31.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
51.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
20.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
5.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
3.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
23.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
5.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-4.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.5%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 52 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

113.08 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 31.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
31.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
19.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
12.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
17.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
15.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

29/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 30 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 03 Aug 2026
verified 2688derived 186

Score by group

  • Valuation52
  • Balance sheet41
  • Quality75
  • Growth74
  • Returns36

Estimated value range

Low
75.49
USD per share
Mid
105.33
USD per share
High
127.98
USD per share
Price: 113.08 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -6.9% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -7.4% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 37.32 – 129.43 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)37.32 – 50.19 (Mid 42.81)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA75.49 – 129.43 (Mid 105.33)
    8 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 10.7x – 14.6x
    CMS, DUK, EVRG, EXC, LNT, NI, WEC, XEL
  • Peers: P/E108.04 – 127.98 (Mid 118.04)
    10 companies used · median multiple 20.8x · quartiles 19.0x – 22.5x
    CMS, DUK, ED, EVRG, EXC, LNT, NI, PEG, WEC, XEL
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 52/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality6.0%60 (vs peers)6%
Net margin · Quality17.9%90 (vs peers)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth3.4%54 (on a fixed band)6%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth8.9%89 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet5.3x63 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.6x32 (on a fixed band)11%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.5x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation19.9x55 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.4x50 (vs peers)11%
Dividend yield · Returns2.6%9 (vs peers)15%
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns51.4%98 (on a fixed band)6%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet41/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth74/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality75/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Returns36/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation52/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

Memo

AMEREN CORP (AEE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.8 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 15.4%; net margin 17.9%; ROE 12.1%; net debt/EBITDA 5.3x.

The estimated value range is 75.49–127.98 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 105.33 USD, the price of 113.08 USD leaves a potential of -6.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -7.4% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 52/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • Net margin: 17.9%
  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 8.9%
  • Payout ratio (EPS): 51.4%

What contradicts it

  • Current ratio: 0.5x
  • Dividend yield: 2.6%

Versus the vertical median

Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 3.8 bn and 241.3 bn (within 8× of the company's); 6 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
19.9x
vertical median 20.3x
at median
EV/EBITDA
13.4x
vertical median 12.9x
at median
P/S
3.6x
vertical median 2.7x
above median (+30.5%)
P/B
2.3x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+12.9%)
ROE
12.1%
vertical median 10.1%
above median (+19.9%)
Net margin
17.9%
vertical median 13.6%
above median (+32.0%)
EBIT margin
24.9%
vertical median 22.0%
above median (+12.8%)
Revenue YoY
15.4%
vertical median 9.6%
above median (+61.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
5.3x
vertical median 5.4x
at median
Dividend yield
2.6%
vertical median 3.1%
below median (−17.6%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DUKDuke Energy CORP101.0 bn19.89.8%15.8%+5.6%+5% / +40%
XELXcel Energy Inc51.7 bn18.811.4%—+1.2%−2% / +32%
EXCExelon Corporation47.3 bn16.99.8%11.2%+5.3%−2% / +20%
EDConsolidated Edison Inc44.3 bn20.38.7%12.5%+10.9%+20% / +34%
WECWec Energy Group, Inc.38.9 bn21.412.5%17.6%+14.0%+5% / +41%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated36.5 bn18.211.8%16.0%+18.3%−12% / +17%
PCGPg&E Corp35.9 bn9.69.7%12.3%+2.1%−17% / −22%
AEEAmeren Corp31.3 bn19.912.1%17.9%+15.4%+11% / +44%
CMSCms Energy Corp22.3 bn21.311.3%11.6%+13.6%−6% / +25%
NINiSource Inc.21.7 bn23.110.1%8.2%+23.5%+3% / +77%
EVRGEvergy, Inc.19.9 bn22.98.8%14.6%+2.0%+11% / +69%
LNTAlliant Energy Corp19.1 bn23.111.3%18.6%+9.6%+6% / +46%

1- and 3-year price returns: for AEE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

The engine has no published run for this company yet.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
65.87
Total return -40% · Per year -40%
116.51
Total return 6% · Per year 6%
175.59
Total return 58% · Per year 58%
3 years
62.53
Total return -39% · Per year -15%
124.59
Total return 18% · Per year 6%
206.36
Total return 93% · Per year 24%
5 years
59.37
Total return -38% · Per year -9%
133.23
Total return 32% · Per year 6%
242.53
Total return 133% · Per year 18%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 31.15
  • Net margin± 21.80
  • Annual revenue growth± 18.09
  • Annual dilution± 1.83

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

In brief

Ameren Corporation (NYSE: AEE) is a utility holding company based in St. Louis whose earnings come mainly from rate-regulated electric transmission and distribution and natural gas delivery in Missouri and Illinois. In the first six months of 2026, net income attributable to common shareholders was $671 million 2, and the company reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $5.25 to $5.45 per diluted share 3. Investments in regulated businesses of $2.7 billion in the first six months 2 underpin this growth.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Regulated businesses with rates set by authorities, giving relatively predictable revenues and a large investment base 1.
  • Large investment program with recovery through mechanisms such as PISA and annual reconciliation 12.
  • Geographic spread across Missouri and Illinois, with several segments contributing earnings 3.

Weaknesses

  • Dependence on regulatory decisions that can limit cost recovery or reduce the approved return 1.
  • Rising costs for plant and grid maintenance reduced earnings in the second quarter of 2026 3.
  • Electric sales depend on weather, and milder temperatures reduced demand in 2026 23.

Opportunities

  • High demand from data centers and industry could expand the customer base and load 2.
  • Renewable and storage projects approved by regulators could add new regulated assets 12.
  • Grid modernization under the Smart Energy Plan could improve reliability and support asset growth 2.

Threats

  • Political and regulatory pressure if rates rise quickly for customers 13.
  • Federal and state energy policy changes could alter timelines for retiring coal and gas plants 13.
  • Environmental and compliance risks could raise costs and force plant closures 1.

Risks

  • Regulatory and rate riskhigh

    Authority decisions on rates can delay or limit cost and return recovery, and appeals can prolong uncertainty 1.

  • Environmental and compliance riskhigh

    Compliance requirements for coal and gas plants may require large investment or early closure of assets 1.

  • Project execution riskmedium

    New generation projects depend on CCN approvals, permits and contracts, and delays can affect the recovery timeline 2.

  • Weather and demand riskmedium

    Sales can fall with mild temperatures or efficiency gains, and guidance assumes normal weather for the rest of the year 23.

  • Cost of capital risklow

    Higher borrowing costs, reflected in higher interest expense, can reduce earnings per share 3.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • Large regulated investment programs backed by recovery mechanisms could lead to steady growth in the asset base and earnings 12.
  • Reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance suggests operational stability, and large customer contracts could add new demand 23.
  • Diversification across generation, transmission and distribution in two states reduces dependence on a single regulatory framework 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Dependence on regulatory decisions could limit gains if approved rates fall short of the investment being recovered 1.
  • Higher maintenance and interest costs could absorb part of the earnings gained from investment 3.
  • If data center demand is delayed, the growth plan built on new load could proceed more slowly than expected 2.

What to watch

  • MoPSC decision on Ameren Missouri's electric service rate increase requestMay 2027
  • ICC decision on Ameren Illinois' 2025 electric distribution reconciliation adjustmentDecember 2026
  • ICC decision on the 2027-2029 electric energy-efficiency planNovember 2026
  • Quarterly results and any change to 2026 earnings guidanceQ3 2026

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

The business

Ameren's strategy rests on three pillars: investing in rate-regulated infrastructure, enhancing regulatory frameworks and optimizing operating performance 1. Revenue exposure is concentrated: in 2025 Ameren Missouri's electric service accounted for 52% of operating revenues, while Ameren Illinois electric distribution accounted for 26%, natural gas 11% and electric transmission 6% 1. Revenues therefore depend heavily on rates set by regulators such as the MoPSC, ICC and FERC 1.

On supply, Ameren Missouri generates most of its power at its own energy centers, and its resource plan calls for adding gas, solar, battery and nuclear capacity through 2040 1. In 2026 Ameren Missouri executed electric service agreements with large load customers representing 2.8 gigawatts of demand, which could begin materializing in the second half of 2027 2.

Market context

Ameren operates in rate-regulated markets where rates are set by the MoPSC, ICC and FERC and demand is influenced by economic conditions and weather 1. New demand from data centers and large industrial users is an important factor, but quarterly results also swing with weather: in the first half of 2026 retail electric sales fell mainly because of milder temperatures 2.

Trends

  • Heavy infrastructure investmenttailwind

    Rising investment in grid and generation supports earnings through regulated rates; the company invested $2.7 billion in regulated businesses in the first half of 2026 2. If these investments are recovered on time, they could sustain earnings growth.

  • Demand from data centers and large loadstailwind

    Large customer contracts, including data centers, could add significant load from 2027, but the timing and size of this demand depend on projects actually proceeding 2.

  • Pressure from rates and maintenance costsheadwind

    Higher maintenance and tree-trimming expenses reduced earnings in 2026, and cumulative rate increases could draw criticism if customer bills rise 23. Regulatory lag may limit cost recovery.

  • Energy transition and federal policymixed

    The plan to retire coal plants and add solar, batteries and gas depends on approvals and on federal and state energy policy, which could change 13. The net effect is uncertain and depends on policy.

Competitive position

Ameren operates as a regulated monopoly in its distribution territories, where direct competition is limited. Real competition comes from alternatives such as customer-owned solar generation and wholesale markets in the MISO area, where the company participates as a transmission owner 1. For large customers, self-generation alternatives can affect long-term demand 12.

Ameren is a MISO member, the regional operator that runs transmission and capacity markets, and capacity prices and requirements are set within that framework 1. Competition for transmission investment also comes from other regulated utilities pursuing similar projects 1.

  • EntergyETR

    Southern regulated utility holding company, cited as an alternative in the MISO context, though the source does not detail a direct relationship.

  • EvergyEVRG

    Midwest regulated utility, comparable to Ameren Missouri in terms of operating territory.

  • MISO regional transmission organization

    Regional body that sets the capacity and transmission rules in which Ameren operates.

  • Private renewable power developers

    Solar and storage projects, including large customers' self-generation, that could reduce demand for utility-supplied energy.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Ameren Corporation · 18 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Ameren Corporation · 03 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Ameren Corporation · 30 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.