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olivLaw · US equity research

CMS Energy Corporation CMS

Electric & Other Services Combined · SIC 4931 · Vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

70.98USD+1.40% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

CMS Energy is a Michigan energy company whose main operator is Consumers Energy, an electricity and natural gas utility. Consolidated operating revenue was 8.5 billion USD in 2025. In July 2026 the company announced its exit from non-utility renewables development and reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, CMS Energy Corporation (CMS) stock was 70.98 USD (+1.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 22.3 bn USD, P/E 21.3 on diluted EPS of 3.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.13%, beta 0.01, 52-week range 62.60–79.94 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 1.8 bn USD (−0.5% YoY), net income of 120.0 m USD (−40.3% YoY), diluted EPS 0.37 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
22.3 bn USD
shares as of 13 Jul 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.3
Diluted EPS TTM 3.34 · TTM to 30 Jun 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.70%
TTM to 30 Jun 2026
Dividend yield
3.13%
DPS 12m 2.23
Beta (2y)
0.01
Volatility (1y) 18%
52-week range
62.6079.94

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
64.8
strong (55–70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
64.90 – 71.84
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.88 · band width 10.2%
SMA 50 / 200
66.90 / 72.56
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.14 / 0.89
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+10.9%−1.1%+12.0 pp—
3 months−0.9%−0.5%−0.4 pp—
6 months−4.1%+4.4%−8.5 pp—
Year to date+1.5%+12.3%−10.8 pp—
1 year−2.7%+13.5%−16.2 pp+4.6%
3 years+27.3%+76.4%−49.1 pp+40.4%
5 years+17.3%+63.7%−46.4 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−21.7%
09 Apr 2026 → 28 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−31.3%
06 Apr 2022 → 02 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+3.2%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026

Revenue
1.8 bn USD
−0.5% YoY
Net income
120.0 m USD
−40.3% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.37
−43.9% YoY
net / operating
6.6% / 14.4%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ3 '24Q4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26
Revenue1.7 bn2.0 bn2.4 bn1.8 bn2.0 bn2.2 bn2.7 bn1.8 bn
Operating income367.0 m425.0 m494.0 m317.0 m481.0 m435.0 m490.0 m264.0 m
Depreciation & amortisation273.0 m326.0 m388.0 m288.0 m288.0 m342.0 m412.0 m308.0 m
Interest expense178.0 m180.0 m186.0 m199.0 m203.0 m201.0 m203.0 m210.0 m
Pre-tax income273.0 m306.0 m358.0 m255.0 m340.0 m295.0 m362.0 m129.0 m
Income tax26.0 m51.0 m63.0 m62.0 m68.0 m53.0 m85.0 m33.0 m
Net income253.0 m265.0 m304.0 m201.0 m277.0 m289.0 m340.0 m120.0 m
Diluted EPS0.840.89 ≈1.010.660.920.95 ≈1.100.37
Operating cash flow304.0 m ≈403.0 m1.0 bn414.0 m ≈343.0 m ≈478.0 m705.0 m622.0 m ≈
Capex806.0 m ≈—888.0 m884.0 m ≈978.0 m ≈—1.0 bn967.0 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 47 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 13.0, median 21.4, max 29.2; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue6.9 bn6.6 bn6.4 bn7.3 bn8.6 bn7.5 bn7.5 bn8.5 bn
Revenue YoY+4.4%−3.6%−3.1%+14.2%+17.3%−13.2%+0.7%+13.6%
Net income657.0 m680.0 m755.0 m1.4 bn837.0 m887.0 m1.0 bn1.1 bn
Net income YoY+42.8%+3.5%+11.0%+79.2%−38.1%+6.0%+13.1%+6.8%
Diluted EPS2.322.392.644.662.853.013.333.53
Diluted EPS YoY+41.5%+3.0%+10.5%+76.5%−38.8%+5.6%+10.6%+6.0%
net %9.6%10.3%11.8%18.5%9.7%11.9%13.3%12.5%
Free cash flow-371.0 m-307.0 m-1.0 bn-257.0 m-1.5 bnunavailableunavailableunavailable

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
509.0 m USD
Financial debt
18.8 bn USD
Net debt
18.2 bn USD
Equity
9.7 bn USD
Total assets
39.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
1.93x
Current ratio
0.98x
ROE
11.6%
ROA
2.8%
FCF margin
unavailable

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
7.5 bn
2024
7.5 bn
2025
8.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Operating income
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
1.2 bn
2024
1.2 bn
2025
1.3 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
2.4 bn ≈
2024
2.7 bn ≈
2025
3.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
643.0 m
2024
708.0 m
2025
789.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Pre-tax income
2023
954.0 m
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
147.0 m
2024
176.0 m
2025
246.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
887.0 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
3.01
2024
3.33
2025
3.53

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
291.7 m
2024
298.3 m
2025
301.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.95
2024
2.06
2025
2.17

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
227.0 m
2024
103.0 m
2025
509.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2023verified

Current assets
2023
2.8 bn
2024
2.8 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
25.1 bn
2024
27.5 bn
2025
30.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Total assets
2023
33.5 bn
2024
35.9 bn
2025
39.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2023verified

Short-term debt
2023
975.0 m
2024
1.2 bn
2025
950.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Long-term debt
2023
14.5 bn
2024
15.2 bn
2025
17.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
2.9 bn
2024
3.5 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
8.1 bn
2024
8.7 bn
2025
9.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Shares outstanding at year end
2023
294.4 m
2024
298.8 m
2025
306.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 30 Oct 2025verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
2.3 bn
2024
2.4 bn
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2023verified

Free cash flow
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2023derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.4 bn
2024
-3.1 bn
2025
-4.0 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
1.1 bn
2024
614.0 m
2025
2.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 09 Feb 2023verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
13.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
-0.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
16.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
6.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
8.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
7.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EPS growth (YoY)
6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
7.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
6.0%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
input data missing

Profitability

Gross margin
unavailable
input data missing
EBITDA margin
34.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
EBIT margin
18.9%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
11.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
FCF margin
unavailable
input data missing

Returns

ROE
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROA
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROIC
4.8%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROCE
4.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
66.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
input data missing

Balance sheet

Net debt
18.8 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
6.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Debt / equity
1.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Interest coverage
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.9x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Capital expenditure
unavailable
input data missing
Free cash flow
unavailable
input data missing
FCF conversion
unavailable
input data missing
Cash conversion
71.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
unavailable
input data missing
Days payables outstanding
unavailable
input data missing

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
22.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Enterprise value
41.1 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
21.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Earnings yield
4.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/S
2.5x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBIT
24.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/Sales
4.7x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
input data missing
FCF yield
unavailable
input data missing
Dividend yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
unavailable
input data missing

3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Unattractive profile

Score: 34 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

score < 40

Closing price

70.98 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 22.3 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
22.3 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
P/E (TTM)
21.3x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
ROE
11.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Jun 2026
Net margin
11.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
13.6%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
3.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Jun 2026

Coverage and freshness

28/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Jun 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Jun 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 13 Jul 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Jul 2026
verified 2378derived 149

Score by group

  • Valuation37
  • Returns60
  • Quality20
  • Balance sheet11
  • Growth50

Estimated value range

Low
43.43
USD per share
Mid
63.46
USD per share
High
75.09
USD per share
Price: 70.98 USD
The price is within the range
Potential to the central value: -10.6% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -11.9% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: medium · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 28.52 – 80.92 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the input exists, but its latest figure is far older than the latest reported period: not used
  • Dividend discount (DDM)28.52 – 38.35 (Mid 32.71)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA43.43 – 80.92 (Mid 63.46)
    8 companies used · median multiple 12.8x · quartiles 10.7x – 14.6x
    AEE, DUK, EVRG, EXC, LNT, NI, WEC, XEL
  • Peers: P/E63.39 – 75.09 (Mid 66.94)
    10 companies used · median multiple 20.1x · quartiles 19.0x – 22.5x
    AEE, DUK, ED, EVRG, EXC, LNT, NI, PEG, WEC, XEL
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Unattractive profile · Score 34/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality4.8%20 (vs peers)6%
Net margin · Quality11.6%20 (vs peers)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth-0.2%18 (on a fixed band)6%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth7.4%74 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet6.2x0 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.0x16 (on a fixed band)11%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.9x29 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation21.3x36 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation13.6x38 (vs peers)11%
Dividend yield · Returns3.1%55 (vs peers)15%
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns66.7%72 (on a fixed band)6%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet11/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality20/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Returns60/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation37/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

Memo

CMS ENERGY CORP (CMS). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 8.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 13.6%; net margin 11.6%; ROE 11.3%; net debt/EBITDA 6.2x.

The estimated value range is 43.43–75.09 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 63.46 USD, the price of 70.98 USD leaves a potential of -10.6% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -11.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 34/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • EPS CAGR 3Y: 7.4%
  • Payout ratio (EPS): 66.7%

What contradicts it

  • ROIC: 4.8%
  • Net margin: 11.6%
  • Revenue CAGR 3Y: -0.2%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 6.2x
  • Interest coverage: 2.0x
  • Current ratio: 0.9x

Versus the vertical median

Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.8 bn and 176.4 bn (within 8× of the company's); 6 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
21.3x
vertical median 19.9x
above median (+7.0%)
EV/EBITDA
13.6x
vertical median 12.8x
above median (+6.1%)
P/S
2.5x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−16.0%)
P/B
2.3x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+12.4%)
ROE
11.3%
vertical median 10.1%
above median (+12.3%)
Net margin
11.6%
vertical median 15.2%
below median (−23.5%)
EBIT margin
18.9%
vertical median 23.1%
below median (−17.9%)
Revenue YoY
13.6%
vertical median 9.6%
above median (+42.4%)
Net debt/EBITDA
6.2x
vertical median 5.3x
above median (+16.9%)
Dividend yield
3.1%
vertical median 2.9%
above median (+7.8%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DUKDuke Energy CORP101.0 bn19.89.8%15.8%+5.6%+5% / +40%
XELXcel Energy Inc51.7 bn18.811.4%—+1.2%−2% / +32%
EXCExelon Corporation47.3 bn16.99.8%11.2%+5.3%−2% / +20%
EDConsolidated Edison Inc44.3 bn20.38.7%12.5%+10.9%+20% / +34%
WECWec Energy Group, Inc.38.9 bn21.412.5%17.6%+14.0%+5% / +41%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated36.5 bn18.211.8%16.0%+18.3%−12% / +17%
PCGPg&E Corp35.9 bn9.69.7%12.3%+2.1%−17% / −22%
AEEAmeren Corp31.3 bn19.912.1%17.9%+15.4%+6% / +46%
CMSCms Energy Corp22.3 bn21.311.3%11.6%+13.6%−3% / +27%
NINiSource Inc.21.7 bn23.110.1%8.2%+23.5%+3% / +77%
EVRGEvergy, Inc.19.9 bn22.98.8%14.6%+2.0%+11% / +69%
LNTAlliant Energy Corp19.1 bn23.111.3%18.6%+9.6%+6% / +46%

1- and 3-year price returns: for CMS from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
39.21
Total return -42% · Per year -42%
69.48
Total return 1% · Per year 1%
104.88
Total return 51% · Per year 51%
3 years
34.52
Total return -45% · Per year -18%
69.17
Total return 7% · Per year 2%
115.14
Total return 74% · Per year 20%
5 years
30.40
Total return -47% · Per year -12%
68.86
Total return 12% · Per year 2%
126.41
Total return 98% · Per year 15%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 17.29
  • Net margin± 12.10
  • Annual revenue growth± 10.41
  • Annual dilution± 1.02

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

In brief

CMS Energy is a Michigan energy company whose main operator is Consumers Energy, an electricity and natural gas utility 1. Consolidated operating revenue was 8.5 billion USD in 2025 1. In July 2026 the company announced its exit from non-utility renewables development and reaffirmed its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance 2.

SWOT

Strengths

  • The company has a regulated and diversified customer base and a leading position in electricity and gas supply in Michigan 1. Its long-term growth guidance gives investors a clear direction 2.
  • Stated emissions reduction goals and a broad renewable program strengthen its position with regulators 1.
  • The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance and introduced 2027 guidance, which indicates financial discipline 2.

Weaknesses

  • Debt and interest costs are significant, and higher interest charges weighed on first-half 2026 results 2.
  • Dependence on subsidiary dividends to cover the parent's debt obligations is a structural vulnerability 1.
  • Quarterly profit fell in 2026 compared with 2025, and adjustments affected reported results 2.

Opportunities

  • If demand from data centers and industry materializes, electricity sales could rise significantly 1.
  • Investment in grid reliability and in solar and wind projects could open new sources of regulated earnings 1.
  • A focus on regulated services after exiting non-utility development could simplify the business 2.

Threats

  • Changes to ROA rules or an ROA-like community solar program could erode sales 1.
  • Emergency orders from the Secretary of Energy and uncertainty over cost recovery at FERC could affect results 1.
  • A reduction in credit ratings could raise borrowing costs and limit access to capital 1.

Risks

  • Reliance on subsidiary dividendsmedium

    The parent company depends on dividends from its subsidiaries to meet its debt obligations 1.

  • Emergency orders for the J.H. Campbell planthigh

    Retirement of the plant is subject to extensions issued by the Secretary of Energy, and cost recovery at FERC is not assured 1.

  • Changes to the ROA regimehigh

    Expanded access for alternative suppliers could reduce Consumers sales 1.

  • Access to capital and credit ratingsmedium

    Access to capital markets depends on investor receptivity and on credit ratings 1.

  • Pension and benefit obligationslow

    Returns on pension plan assets are uncertain, which could increase funding requirements 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • If electricity demand grows as expected and data center projects materialize, a larger regulated asset base could support long-term earnings 12.
  • The 2027 guidance and the reaffirmed 2026 guidance could signal stable execution if current trends hold 2.
  • Simplifying the business by exiting non-utility development could reduce financing needs and focus the company on regulated activity 2.

What would break the thesis

  • If quarterly and six-month profit keeps declining, the guidance could become harder to achieve 2.
  • Interest costs and capital needs could limit financial flexibility if borrowing costs rise 12.
  • Regulatory decisions or legislative changes could restrict cost recovery and weigh on results 1.

What to watch

  • Quarterly results and updates to the 2026 and 2027 guidanceQ3 2026
  • Progress of the J.H. Campbell cost recovery case at FERC and the emergency orders2026
  • Delivery of data center projects and actual load growth2027
  • Details on cost recovery and debt in the next annual 10-Knext 10-K

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 28 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (27 Oct 2026), 8-K (27 Oct 2026 · results).

The business

CMS Energy is the parent holding company of several subsidiaries, including Consumers, an electric and gas utility, and NorthStar Clean Energy, a domestic independent power producer and marketer with a focus on renewables 1. The company operates in three segments: electric, gas and NorthStar Clean Energy, and Consumers accounts for the substantial majority of assets, income and revenue 1. Consumers serves 6.8 million of Michigan's 10 million residents, with rates subject to the MPSC and FERC 1.

As part of its decarbonization strategy Consumers planned to retire its coal plants, but the retirement of J.H. Campbell remains subject to temporary emergency orders from the U.S. Secretary of Energy 1. The company targets 60 percent renewable energy by 2035 and 100 percent clean energy by 2040 1. A new data center agreement could add more than 1 GW of incremental load in its service territory 1.

Segments

Electric utility (Consumers Electric Utility)

The electric segment generated 5.6 billion USD of operating revenue in 2025 and covers generation, purchase, distribution and sale of electricity 1. The 2025 summer peak demand was 8,500 MW, and 41 percent of electric supply came from gas-fueled units 1. Consumers acquired 32 percent of its supply through long-term PPAs and the MISO market 1.

NorthStar Clean Energy

NorthStar Clean Energy is engaged in independent power production and marketing, including development and operation of renewable assets 1. In July 2026 the company completed a strategic review and decided to exit non-utility renewables development while retaining Michigan assets such as Dearborn Industrial Generation 2. The stated aim is to simplify the business and reduce financing needs 2.

Market context

CMS Energy's core market is the Lower Peninsula of Michigan, where it competes through its own generation, purchases, and customers who could move to alternative suppliers within the 10 percent cap 1. Electric deliveries are expected to increase over the next five years compared with 2025, reflecting demand growth and new data centers 1. Gas deliveries are expected to remain stable, with modest demand growth offset by energy waste reduction programs 1.

The regulatory environment is central: rates are set by the MPSC, and wholesale markets are run by MISO and overseen by FERC 1. Load growth and data centers could support sales, while renewable and clean energy requirements are set by the 2023 Energy Law 1.

Trends

  • Rising electricity demandtailwind

    Consumers expects weather-normalized electric deliveries to grow from 2025 levels, reflecting industrial demand and data centers 1. If this growth materializes, it could support revenue in the electric segment 1.

  • Michigan 2023 Energy Lawmixed

    The law raises renewable and clean energy standards and sets a storage target 1. The required investment could support the regulated asset base but also adds pressure on customer costs 1.

  • Competition from customers and self-generationheadwind

    Customers could move to alternative suppliers or self-generate, and ROA-like community solar programs could add competitive pressure 1. Sales could be affected if the ROA cap were exceeded 1.

  • Cost and regulatory pressuresmixed

    Inflation and tariffs could affect supply chains and equipment prices 1. On the other side, the 2027 guidance points to expected growth in adjusted earnings 2.

Competitive position

Consumers faces competition from alternative electric suppliers, from municipalities that could create their own utilities, and from customer self-generation 1. The company responds by controlling costs, offering competitive rate designs for large customers, and providing economic development incentives 1.

In independent power production, NorthStar Clean Energy competes with other developers and producers, but it is now exiting non-utility development and keeping only Michigan assets 2. This shifts the focus toward regulated energy services 2.

  • Municipal utilities

    Michigan law allows municipalities to create and operate utilities that could compete with the Consumers service area 1.

  • Alternative electric suppliers (ROA)

    Suppliers in the retail access program can sell electricity to Consumers customers within the legal cap 1.

  • MISO energy market participants

    Consumers offers its generation into the MISO market and buys from it, which places the company alongside other market participants 1.

News & filings

In the press

SEC filings

  • Current report03 Nov 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report27 Oct 2026
  • Current report27 Oct 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report28 Jul 2026
  • Current report28 Jul 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report03 Jun 2026
    Departure or appointment of officers · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 May 2026
    Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Current report13 May 2026
    Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
  • Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
  • Current report28 Apr 2026
    Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / CMS Energy Corporation · 10 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / CMS Energy Corporation · 28 Jul 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.