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olivLaw · US equity research

NiSource Inc. NI

Electric & Other Services Combined · SIC 4931 · Vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

45.29USD+1.50% · 1 dayClose 04 Nov 2026

NiSource is a fully regulated energy holding company serving about 3.8 million customers across six states through natural gas and electric utilities. The company is in focus because its data center contracts, led by the ADS agreement, could reshape its growth profile over the coming years.

The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).

At the close of 04 Nov 2026, NiSource Inc. (NI) stock was 45.29 USD (+1.50% on the day), with market capitalisation 21.7 bn USD, P/E 23.1 on diluted EPS of 1.96 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 2.65%, beta 0.33, 52-week range 39.00–49.08 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.3 bn USD (+4.7% YoY), net income of 129.5 m USD (+36.7% YoY), diluted EPS 0.27 USD.

Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.

Market cap
21.7 bn USD
shares as of 21 Oct 2026
P/E (TTM)
23.1
Diluted EPS TTM 1.96 · TTM to 30 Sept 2026
E/P (TTM)
4.32%
TTM to 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.65%
DPS 12m 1.20
Beta (2y)
0.33
Volatility (1y) 18%
52-week range
39.0049.08

Price history

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Technical reading

RSI (14)
73.4
overbought (≥ 70)
Bollinger (20, 2)
40.03 – 45.86
in the upper half of the band · %B 0.90 · band width 13.6%
SMA 50 / 200
41.46 / 44.91
mixed trend
MACD (12, 26, 9)
1.07 / 0.85
MACD above signal

Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).

Performance

CompanyS&P 500vs S&P 500Vertical median
1 month+14.5%−1.1%+15.6 pp—
3 months+5.5%−0.5%+6.0 pp—
6 months−4.7%+4.4%−9.1 pp—
Year to date+8.5%+12.3%−3.9 pp—
1 year+5.6%+13.5%−7.9 pp+4.6%
3 years+76.1%+76.4%−0.3 pp+33.5%
5 years+78.9%+63.7%+15.3 pp—
Max drawdown (1y)
−20.5%
26 Jun 2026 → 30 Sept 2026
Max drawdown (5y)
−28.6%
06 Apr 2022 → 02 Oct 2023
Compound annual growth (5y)
+12.3%
S&P 500 +10.4%

Price returns, dividends excluded.

Quarterly results

Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026

Revenue
1.3 bn USD
+4.7% YoY
Net income
129.5 m USD
+36.7% YoY
Diluted EPS
0.27
+35.0% YoY
net / operating
10.0% / 26.2%

Quarterly margins

Quarterly statements · USD

Fiscal yearQ4 '24Q1 '25Q2 '25Q3 '25Q4 '25Q1 '26Q2 '26Q3 '26
Revenue5.3 bn2.1 bn1.2 bn1.2 bn6.5 bn2.3 bn1.3 bn1.3 bn
Cost of revenue376.6 m647.5 m261.8 m193.6 m481.5 m669.2 m193.6 m207.3 m
Operating income416.8 m759.4 m262.9 m297.5 m515.5 m819.2 m228.1 m340.3 m
Depreciation & amortisation278.1 m258.6 m286.7 m306.9 m315.4 m288.3 m362.2 m337.8 m
Interest expense137.0 m132.8 m139.1 m179.8 m187.3 m191.6 m199.2 m210.5 m
Income tax48.6 m105.7 m23.8 m20.6 m53.7 m85.8 m10.2 m13.1 m
Net income223.9 m474.8 m102.2 m94.7 m257.8 m507.1 m45.5 m129.5 m
Diluted EPS0.48 ≈1.000.220.200.54 ≈1.060.090.27
Operating cash flow539.8 m686.4 m495.4 m ≈467.9 m ≈712.6 m442.3 m680.4 m ≈546.8 m ≈
Capex760.0 m637.3 m658.2 m ≈640.5 m ≈846.3 m805.2 m1.1 bn ≈1.2 bn ≈
Dividends paid124.0 m132.0 m132.2 m ≈132.2 m ≈134.0 m149.0 m144.3 m ≈144.2 m ≈

≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)

E/P over time

E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.

Today's P/E sits at the 61 percentile of its own 38-quarter history (min 15.9, median 21.8, max 96.0; quarters with earnings only).

Fiscal years

Fiscal year20182019202020212022202320242025
Revenue5.0 bn5.1 bn4.5 bn4.7 bn5.7 bn5.3 bn5.3 bn6.5 bn
Revenue YoY+2.4%+1.2%−11.5%+5.8%+21.3%−6.8%−1.2%+23.5%
Net income-50.6 m383.1 m-17.6 m584.9 m804.1 m714.3 m760.4 m929.5 m
Net income YoY−139.4%unavailable−104.6%unavailable+37.5%−11.2%+6.5%+22.2%
Diluted EPS-0.180.87-0.191.271.701.481.621.95
Diluted EPS YoY−146.2%unavailable−121.8%unavailable+33.9%−12.9%+9.5%+20.4%
net %-1.0%7.6%-0.4%12.4%14.0%13.4%14.4%14.3%
Free cash flow-1.3 bn-219.1 m-654.1 m-620.1 m-793.7 m-710.7 m-832.5 m-420.0 m

Reported results vs expectations

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Balance sheet & financial health

Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025

Cash
110.1 m USD
Financial debt
736.0 m USD
Net debt
625.9 m USD
Equity
11.7 bn USD
Total assets
35.9 bn USD
Debt / equity
0.06x
Current ratio
0.69x
ROE
8.3%
ROA
2.7%
FCF margin
-6.4%

Financial statements (source on every figure)

Revenue and net income (USD)

Margins

Income statement · USD

Revenue
2023
5.3 bn
2024
5.3 bn
2025
6.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cost of revenue
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.1 bn
2025
1.6 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Gross profit
2023
3.8 bn ≈
2024
4.2 bn ≈
2025
4.9 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Operating income
2023
1.3 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Depreciation & amortisation
2023
908.2 m
2024
1.0 bn
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

EBITDA
2023
2.2 bn ≈
2024
2.5 bn ≈
2025
3.0 bn ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Interest expense
2023
489.6 m
2024
517.2 m
2025
639.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Income tax
2023
139.5 m
2024
158.1 m
2025
203.8 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Net income
2023
714.3 m
2024
760.4 m
2025
929.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Diluted EPS
2023
1.48
2024
1.62
2025
1.95

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Weighted average diluted shares
2023
447.9 m
2024
456.0 m
2025
474.5 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividend per share
2023
1.00
2024
1.06
2025
1.12

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Balance sheet · USD

Cash
2023
2.2 bn
2024
156.6 m
2025
110.1 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Receivables
2023
862.0 m
2024
964.2 m
2025
1.2 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current assets
2023
4.5 bn
2024
2.1 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Property, plant & equipment, net
2023
22.3 bn
2024
25.5 bn
2025
28.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Goodwill
2023
1.5 bn
2024
1.5 bn
2025
1.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Intangibles (excl. goodwill)
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2022verified

Total assets
2023
31.1 bn
2024
31.8 bn
2025
35.9 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Accounts payable
2023
749.4 m
2024
863.1 m
2025
1.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Short-term debt
2023
3.0 bn
2024
604.6 m
2025
736.0 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Current liabilities
2023
5.3 bn
2024
4.1 bn
2025
3.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Equity
2023
10.1 bn
2024
10.7 bn
2025
11.7 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Cash flow · USD

Operating cash flow
2023
1.9 bn
2024
1.8 bn
2025
2.4 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Capex
2023
2.6 bn
2024
2.6 bn
2025
2.8 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Free cash flow
2023
-710.7 m ≈
2024
-832.5 m ≈
2025
-420.0 m ≈

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026derived

Investing cash flow
2023
-3.6 bn
2024
-3.2 bn
2025
-4.5 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Financing cash flow
2023
3.8 bn
2024
-651.0 m
2025
2.1 bn

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Dividends paid
2023
413.5 m
2024
481.0 m
2025
530.4 m

SEC (XBRL)· 11 Feb 2026verified

Share repurchases
2023
—
2024
—
2025
—

SEC (XBRL)· 17 Feb 2021verified

Computed indicators

Growth

Revenue growth (YoY)
23.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Revenue CAGR 3Y
4.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Revenue CAGR 5Y
7.8%
computed by olivLawFY 2020 → FY 2025
EBIT growth (YoY)
26.1%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income growth (YoY)
22.2%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Net income CAGR 3Y
4.9%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
Net income CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
EPS growth (YoY)
20.4%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
EPS CAGR 3Y
4.7%
computed by olivLawFY 2022 → FY 2025
EPS CAGR 5Y
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF growth (YoY)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Profitability

Gross margin
86.4%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBITDA margin
28.0%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
EBIT margin
16.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF margin
-13.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Returns

ROE
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROA
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROIC
12.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROCE
5.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (EPS)
61.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Payout ratio (FCF)
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive

Balance sheet

Net debt
722.5 m USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Debt / equity
0.1x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Interest coverage
2.4x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Liquidity

Current ratio
0.5x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Quick ratio
unavailable
input data missing
Cash ratio
0.0x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Cash

Operating cash flow
2.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Capital expenditure
3.9 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Free cash flow
-1.6 bn USD
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
FCF conversion
-166.7%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Cash conversion
74.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Efficiency

Days sales outstanding
24 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Days payables outstanding
230 days
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

Market and valuation

Market capitalisation
21.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Enterprise value
22.4 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Market cap / net income TTM
23.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
23.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Earnings yield
4.3%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/S
1.9x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBIT
11.8x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/Sales
2.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/FCF
unavailable
the base of the ratio is not positive
FCF yield
-7.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Dividend yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Shareholder yield (distributions)
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026

3 indicators that do not apply to the sector.

Valuation

olivLaw classification

Neutral profile

Score: 48 / 100

A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.

Closing price

45.29 USD

04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series

Market cap: 21.7 bn USD

Key indicators

Market capitalisation
21.7 bn USD
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
P/E (TTM)
23.1x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
P/B
2.3x
computed by olivLawbalance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
ROE
10.1%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026 · balance sheet at 30 Sept 2026
Net margin
8.2%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026
Revenue growth (YoY)
23.5%
computed by olivLawFY 2025
Dividend yield
2.6%
computed by olivLawTTM to 30 Sept 2026

Coverage and freshness

30/37 reporting lines present
Latest full fiscal year: 2025
Latest reported period: 30 Sept 2026
Latest balance sheet date: 30 Sept 2026
Share count (cover of the latest filing), as of: 21 Oct 2026
Source: SEC (XBRL)published 28 Oct 2026
verified 2611derived 190

Score by group

  • Balance sheet56
  • Growth54
  • Quality50
  • Returns37
  • Valuation45

Estimated value range

Low
37.21
USD per share
Mid
39.29
USD per share
High
41.86
USD per share
Price: 45.29 USD
The price is above the range
Potential to the central value: -13.2% (value / price − 1)
Margin of safety: -15.3% (1 − price / value)
Agreement between methods: low · 3 methods used · 2 independent bases

The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 14.72 – 96.27 USD.

Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.

Method ranges (USD per share)

— — Mid · ▏ Price

Valuation methods

  • DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
  • Dividend discount (DDM)14.72 – 19.79 (Mid 16.88)
  • Peers: EV/EBITDA77.53 – 96.27 (Mid 88.88)
    8 companies used · median multiple 13.5x · quartiles 11.8x – 14.6x
    AEE, CMS, DUK, EVRG, EXC, LNT, WEC, XEL
  • Peers: P/E37.21 – 41.86 (Mid 39.29)
    10 companies used · median multiple 20.1x · quartiles 19.0x – 21.4x
    AEE, CMS, DUK, ED, EVRG, EXC, LNT, PEG, WEC, XEL
Multiple comparisons use the SIC vertical: Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931)

Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.

Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)

Risk-free rate
4.3%
Equity risk premium
5.0%
Beta (default)
1.00
Cost of equity
9.3%
Terminal growth
2.5%

Factor scorecard

Neutral profile · Score 48/100

FactorValueScoreWeight used
ROIC · Quality12.7%100 (vs peers)6%
Net margin · Quality8.2%0 (vs peers)6%
Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth4.4%64 (on a fixed band)6%
EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth4.7%47 (on a fixed band)9%
Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet0.2x100 (vs peers)13%
Interest coverage · Balance sheet2.4x26 (on a fixed band)11%
Current ratio · Balance sheet0.5x0 (on a fixed band)4%
P/E (TTM) · Valuation23.1x0 (vs peers)13%
EV/EBITDA · Valuation7.0x100 (vs peers)11%
Dividend yield · Returns2.6%18 (vs peers)15%
Payout ratio (EPS) · Returns61.3%81 (on a fixed band)6%

Score groups

  • Balance sheet56/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
  • Growth54/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Quality50/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Returns37/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
  • Valuation45/100 · 2/2 factors with a value

Memo

NiSource Inc. (NI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.

Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 6.5 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 23.5%; net margin 8.2%; ROE 10.1%; net debt/EBITDA 0.2x.

The estimated value range is 37.21–41.86 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: low); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 39.29 USD, the price of 45.29 USD leaves a potential of -13.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -15.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.

olivLaw score 48/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.

Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.

What supports the thesis

  • ROIC: 12.7%
  • Net debt / EBITDA: 0.2x
  • EV/EBITDA: 7.0x
  • Payout ratio (EPS): 61.3%

What contradicts it

  • Net margin: 8.2%
  • Interest coverage: 2.4x
  • Current ratio: 0.5x
  • P/E (TTM): 23.1x
  • Dividend yield: 2.6%
  • The price is above the estimated value range
  • The valuation methods diverge

Versus the vertical median

Electric & Other Services Combined (SIC 4931) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 11 companies

Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.6 bn and 167.6 bn (within 8× of the company's); 6 of the vertical were left out.

Multiples and returns vs the median

P/E
23.1x
vertical median 19.9x
above median (+16.3%)
EV/EBITDA
7.0x
vertical median 13.5x
below median (−48.2%)
P/S
1.9x
vertical median 3.0x
below median (−36.8%)
P/B
2.3x
vertical median 2.0x
above median (+12.0%)
ROE
10.1%
vertical median 11.3%
below median (−10.9%)
Net margin
8.2%
vertical median 15.2%
below median (−46.0%)
EBIT margin
16.6%
vertical median 23.1%
below median (−27.9%)
Revenue YoY
23.5%
vertical median 9.6%
above median (+145.2%)
Net debt/EBITDA
0.2x
vertical median 5.4x
below median (−95.8%)
Dividend yield
2.6%
vertical median 3.1%
below median (−15.5%)

Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)

Companies in the vertical

Market capP/EROENet marginRevenue YoY1A / 3A
DUKDuke Energy CORP101.0 bn19.89.8%15.8%+5.6%+5% / +40%
XELXcel Energy Inc51.7 bn18.811.4%—+1.2%−2% / +32%
EXCExelon Corporation47.3 bn16.99.8%11.2%+5.3%−2% / +20%
EDConsolidated Edison Inc44.3 bn20.38.7%12.5%+10.9%+20% / +34%
WECWec Energy Group, Inc.38.9 bn21.412.5%17.6%+14.0%+5% / +41%
PEGPublic Service Enterprise Group Incorporated36.5 bn18.211.8%16.0%+18.3%−12% / +17%
PCGPg&E Corp35.9 bn9.69.7%12.3%+2.1%−17% / −22%
AEEAmeren Corp31.3 bn19.912.1%17.9%+15.4%+6% / +46%
CMSCms Energy Corp22.3 bn21.311.3%11.6%+13.6%−6% / +25%
NINiSource Inc.21.7 bn23.110.1%8.2%+23.5%+6% / +76%
EVRGEvergy, Inc.19.9 bn22.98.8%14.6%+2.0%+11% / +69%
LNTAlliant Energy Corp19.1 bn23.111.3%18.6%+9.6%+6% / +46%

1- and 3-year price returns: for NI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.

olivLaw engine forecast

The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.

Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)

Illustrative scenarios

Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.

Bear
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Base
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Bull
Allowed range: -50 … 50%
Allowed range: -100 … 100%
Allowed range: 0 … 100
Allowed range: -10 … 20%
Allowed range: 0 … 100%
Nothing is saved.

Estimated price (USD)

Estimated priceBearBaseBull
1 years
26.76
Total return -39% · Per year -39%
47.31
Total return 7% · Per year 7%
71.27
Total return 61% · Per year 61%
3 years
25.90
Total return -37% · Per year -14%
51.53
Total return 22% · Per year 7%
85.24
Total return 99% · Per year 26%
5 years
25.07
Total return -35% · Per year -8%
56.12
Total return 39% · Per year 7%
101.94
Total return 145% · Per year 20%
What moves the 3-year price the most
  • Exit P/E± 12.88
  • Net margin± 9.02
  • Annual revenue growth± 7.41
  • Annual dilution± 0.76

AI analysis

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

In brief

NiSource is a fully regulated energy holding company serving about 3.8 million customers across six states through natural gas and electric utilities. The company is in focus because its data center contracts, led by the ADS agreement, could reshape its growth profile over the coming years.

SWOT

Strengths

  • Revenues from rate-regulated operations, a growing asset base and a multi-year investment plan give the company visibility 13.
  • A customer base anchored in gas and electric utilities provides essential services and fairly stable demand 1.
  • Experience in executing large contracts and securing regulatory approvals for agreements with major technology customers 3.

Weaknesses

  • Reliance on regulatory approvals can delay cost recovery 1.
  • Substantial indebtedness limits financial flexibility, and a downgrade in credit ratings could raise costs 1.
  • Concentration of data center contracts on one major customer increases dependency risk 1.

Opportunities

  • Demand from data centers in northern Indiana could expand the asset base and revenues 13.
  • Investment in infrastructure modernization could reduce losses and improve system safety 1.
  • If similar agreements with large customers are replicated, the company could diversify its growth sources 3.

Threats

  • Falling gas demand from efficiency gains and electrification could weigh on investment returns 1.
  • Delays or cost overruns in building generation assets could reduce contract returns 1.
  • Legislative changes and activist pressure could affect costs and reputation 1.

Risks

  • Data center project executionhigh

    Delays or cost overruns could reduce returns under the ADS contract and require additional financing 1.

  • Customer concentrationhigh

    The partnership with one major customer exposes the company to concentration and counterparty risk 1.

  • Regulatory approvalsmedium

    Failure to obtain approvals from regulators could delay projects and cost recovery 13.

  • Environmental compliance costsmedium

    Compliance with environmental rules could be significant and may not always be recoverable 1.

  • Indebtedness and credit ratingmedium

    Significant debt and a possible downgrade could raise the cost of financing 1.

Investment thesis

What would need to be true (bull case)

  • The EPS and rate base growth plan, reaffirmed in the second quarter of 2026, gives a clear multi-year outlook 3.
  • If data center projects are delivered on time, they could add stable revenues from long-term contracts 1.
  • A regulated customer base provides predictable revenue, and approved rate cases support stability 1.

What would break the thesis

  • Concentration on data center contracts could expose the company to delays, cost overruns and financing risks 1.
  • Gas demand could decline over the long term due to efficiency gains and electric alternatives 1.
  • Debt and reliance on external funding could limit flexibility if capital markets become more expensive 1.

What to watch

  • Final IURC approval of the data center contracts and generation assets2026
  • Evolution of emergency orders for the R.M. Schahfer plantQ3 2026
  • Construction progress of the combined-cycle plant and battery storage2027

Products, market & competition

AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.

Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 05 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (28 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (28 Oct 2026).

The business

NiSource Inc. is an energy holding company under the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 2005, whose primary subsidiaries are fully regulated natural gas and electric utility companies 1. Substantially all of its revenues and earnings come from these rate-regulated businesses 1. Its strategy centers on safety, reliability and infrastructure investment, and in 2025 it entered the ADS Contract under which NIPSCO supplies power to a data center 1.

The company was renamed from NIPSCO Industries to NiSource in 1999 and has two reportable segments, Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations 1. Centralized corporate activities, including holding company interest and unallocated costs, are reported separately 1. Management also reports results on a non-GAAP basis, with base plan and consolidated adjusted EPS 3.

The 2026-2030 consolidated capital investment plan of 28.6 billion USD combines base investments with strategic data center infrastructure and sets the company's growth direction 3. If execution and regulatory approvals stay on track, the targets for the asset base could support the announced growth 3.

Segments

Columbia Operations

The Columbia segment supplies natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky and Maryland, with about 2.4 million customers 1. Customers can buy gas directly from producers, and demand is seasonal, peaking during the heating season 1.

NIPSCO Operations

NIPSCO serves about 0.9 million gas customers in northern Indiana and about 0.5 million electric customers, with total owned generating capacity of 3,967 MW 1. It also runs the data center arrangements, including the ADS Contract, which contemplates 2,400 MW by the end of 2032 1.

Market context

NiSource operates in regulated markets where rates are approved by state and federal authorities, and electric retail customers in Indiana cannot choose their supplier 1. Gas demand is shaped by weather and efficiency, while data center demand has added a new dimension 1.

Demand from large customers, especially data centers, creates opportunities but also execution and financing risks for northern Indiana utilities 12. Regulators remain decisive for cost recovery 1.

Trends

  • Data center demandmixed

    Data centers in northern Indiana bring growth through contracts like ADS, but they require large investments and carry execution risk 12.

  • Energy transitionmixed

    Retiring coal plants and replacing them with gas and renewables are shaped by emergency orders and resource plans, adding uncertainty to timelines 12.

  • Rate case outcomestailwind

    Recent rate cases approved in several states support stable revenues but depend on regulatory decisions 1.

  • Electrificationheadwind

    Heat pumps and other alternatives to gas heating could reduce long-term natural gas demand 1.

Competitive position

In gas markets NiSource competes with other gas suppliers, electric utilities and alternative fuels such as propane and fuel oil 1. In northern Indiana, competition also comes from self-generation by large industrial customers 1.

For data center contracts, the company competes with utilities and energy providers across the United States and abroad, with siting factors such as land cost, permitting and the ability to deliver power quickly at scale 1.

  • Other electric utilities in its service areas

    Investor-owned, municipal and cooperative electric utilities that compete within NiSource's service territories 1.

  • Interstate and intrastate gas pipelines

    Regulated and unregulated pipeline operators that can supply natural gas directly to customers 1.

  • Propane and fuel oil suppliers

    Alternative fuel providers that compete with natural gas for heating demand 1.

  • Utilities and power providers competing for data center projects

    Utilities and energy providers across the United States and abroad that bid for data center load 1.

News & filings

In the press

No news in our archive over the last 180 days.

SEC filings

Sources

  1. [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / NiSource Inc. · 11 Feb 2026
  2. [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / NiSource Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
  3. [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / NiSource Inc. · 05 Aug 2026

Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.