olivLaw · US equity research
Aemetis, Inc. AMTX
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
Aemetis is a California company producing renewable natural gas from dairy waste, ethanol at its Keyes plant and biodiesel in India. Revenue in the second quarter of 2026 rose 20% year on year, while the company still depends on outside financing for its debt and investments, with revenue of about 62.7 million USD in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Aemetis, Inc. (AMTX) stock was 1.25 USD (+8.70% on the day), with market capitalisation 90.2 m USD, beta 1.14, 52-week range 1.15–3.66 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 62.7 m USD (+20.0% YoY), net income of -9.4 m USD, diluted EPS -0.13 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 37.3
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1.05 – 1.69
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.32 · band width 47.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1.67 / 1.95
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.14 / -0.14
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −29.0% | −1.1% | −27.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −19.4% | −0.5% | −18.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | −61.4% | +4.4% | −65.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | −10.1% | +12.3% | −22.4 pp | — |
| 1 year | −39.3% | +13.5% | −52.9 pp | −1.7% |
| 3 years | −74.2% | +76.4% | −150.6 pp | −26.4% |
| 5 years | −94.4% | +63.7% | −158.1 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 81.4 m | 47.0 m | 42.9 m | 52.2 m | 59.2 m | 43.3 m | 54.6 m | 62.7 m |
| Cost of revenue | 77.6 m | 49.0 m | 48.0 m | 55.6 m | 59.2 m | 45.9 m | 51.9 m | 49.2 m |
| Gross profit | 3.9 m | -2.0 m | -5.1 m | -3.4 m | -58.0 k | 7.7 m | 2.8 m | 13.5 m |
| SG&A | 7.8 m | 11.4 m | 10.5 m | 7.3 m | 8.5 m | 10.2 m | 9.1 m | 7.7 m |
| Operating income | -3.9 m | -13.5 m | -15.6 m | -10.7 m | -8.5 m | -2.5 m | -6.3 m | 5.8 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2.5 m | 2.5 m |
| Interest expense | 11.7 m | 12.6 m | 13.7 m | 12.3 m | 13.0 m | 13.9 m | 14.4 m | 13.7 m |
| Pre-tax income | -17.7 m | -28.6 m | -31.3 m | -23.9 m | -23.7 m | -16.8 m | -21.8 m | -9.4 m |
| Income tax | 274.0 k | -12.4 m | -6.8 m | -529.0 k | 6.0 k | -11.4 m | -131.0 k | 0 |
| Net income | -17.9 m | -16.2 m | -24.5 m | -23.4 m | -23.7 m | -5.3 m | -21.7 m | -9.4 m |
| Diluted EPS | -0.38 | -0.32 ≈ | -0.47 | -0.41 | -0.37 | -0.08 ≈ | -0.33 | -0.13 |
| Operating cash flow | -5.0 m ≈ | -12.6 m | 160.0 k | -5.7 m ≈ | 3.1 m ≈ | 5.8 m | -10.6 m | -1.9 m ≈ |
| Capex | 4.5 m | 6.8 m | 1.8 m | 3.5 m ≈ | 4.1 m ≈ | 16.6 m | 6.5 m | 8.5 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | ⚠ 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 171.5 m | 202.0 m | 165.6 m | 211.9 m | 28.1 m | 77.2 m | 267.6 m | 197.6 m |
| Revenue YoY | +14.2% | +17.8% | −18.0% | +28.0% | — | +174.6% | +246.7% | −26.2% |
| Net income | -36.3 m | -39.5 m | -36.7 m | -47.1 m | -107.8 m | -46.4 m | -87.5 m | -77.0 m |
| Net income YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | -1.63 | -1.75 | -1.74 | -1.54 | -3.12 | -1.22 | -1.91 | -1.28 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | — | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | -21.2% | -19.5% | -22.1% | -22.2% | -383.3% | -60.1% | -32.7% | -39.0% |
| Free cash flow | -9.6 m | -10.6 m | -16.9 m | -47.3 m | -62.0 m | -19.3 m | -53.2 m | -22.7 m |
The series breaks before 2022: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 4.9 m USD
- Financial debt
- 381.8 m USD
- Net debt
- 376.9 m USD
- Equity
- -306.8 m USD
- Total assets
- 259.8 m USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.07x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- -29.7%
- FCF margin
- -11.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 165.6 m | 211.9 m | 28.1 m | 77.2 m | 267.6 m | 197.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 154.5 m | 204.0 m | 262.0 m | 184.7 m | 268.2 m | 208.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 11.0 m | 7.9 m | -5.5 m | 2.0 m | -580.0 k | -768.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Research & development | 213.0 k | 88.0 k | 180.0 k | 152.0 k | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2024verified |
| SG&A | 16.9 m | 23.7 m | 28.7 m | 39.4 m | 39.8 m | 36.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Operating income | -6.1 m | -15.8 m | -34.4 m | -37.4 m | -40.4 m | -37.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.9 m | 5.4 m | — | — | 8.4 m | 9.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -1.2 m ≈ | -10.4 m ≈ | — | — | -32.0 m ≈ | -27.6 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 22.9 m | 24.1 m | 28.8 m | 39.5 m | 46.6 m | 52.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 0 | -47.3 m | -106.7 m | -100.2 m | -98.4 m | -95.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Income tax | -976.0 k | -128.0 k | 1.1 m | -53.7 m | -10.8 m | -18.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Net income | -36.7 m | -47.1 m | -107.8 m | -46.4 m | -87.5 m | -77.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -1.74 | -1.54 | -3.12 | -1.22 | -1.91 | -1.28 | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 21.0 m | 30.7 m | 34.6 m | 38.1 m | 45.9 m | 60.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 592.0 k | 7.8 m | 4.3 m | 2.7 m | 898.0 k | 4.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Receivables | — | 1.6 m | 1.3 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 09 Mar 2023verified |
| Inventories | 4.0 m | 5.1 m | 4.7 m | 18.3 m | 25.4 m | 11.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Current assets | 8.7 m | 20.7 m | 18.1 m | 36.4 m | 44.7 m | 26.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 109.9 m | 135.1 m | 180.4 m | 195.1 m | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 29 Mar 2024verified |
| Total assets | 125.1 m | 160.8 m | 207.1 m | 243.4 m | 259.3 m | 259.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 20.7 m | 16.4 m | 26.2 m | 32.1 m | 33.1 m | 23.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 59.5 m | 22.8 m | 49.2 m | 37.0 m | 90.5 m | 317.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 170.1 m | 166.0 m | 197.0 m | 257.7 m | 247.5 m | 63.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 102.2 m | 65.3 m | 88.3 m | 84.4 m | 144.0 m | 371.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Equity | -184.7 m | -120.2 m | -201.9 m | -217.0 m | -263.9 m | -306.8 m † | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 2.5 m | -20.6 m | -22.9 m | 13.8 m | -32.9 m | 3.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Capex | 19.3 m | 26.7 m | 39.2 m | 33.1 m | 20.3 m | 26.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -16.9 m ≈ | -47.3 m ≈ | -62.0 m ≈ | -19.3 m ≈ | -53.2 m ≈ | -22.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -17.3 m | -22.9 m | -31.3 m | -23.7 m | -14.1 m | -25.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 14.8 m | 50.7 m | 53.6 m | 9.1 m | 44.6 m | 26.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 16 Mar 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
- indicators available: 5 of at least 6
- score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%
- valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 90.2 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
33% · Insufficient data
Estimated value range
unavailable — no valuation method could be computed
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · equity is negative: the ratio is not economically meaningful (not by itself insolvency; usually the result of buybacks)
- Peers: EV/EBITDAunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Peers: P/Eunavailable · the base of the ratio is not positive
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
no valuation method could be computed
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Insufficient data
Minimum-evidence gate: indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | -27.4% | 32 (vs peers) | 19% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 91.6% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | -0.2x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 19% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.1x | 0 (on a fixed band) | 13% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| FCF yield · Valuation | -43.6% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 25% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet0/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality· partial32/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partialunavailable · 0/2 factors with a value
- Valuation· partial0/100 · 1/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
AEMETIS, INC (AMTX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 197.6 m USD in 2025; YoY growth -26.2%; net margin -27.4%.
Valuation cannot be computed from the available data.
Insufficient data for a verdict (indicators available: 5 of at least 6; score weight coverage: 33.3% of at least 60%; valuation methods computed: 0 of at least 1).
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 91.6%
What contradicts it
- Interest coverage: -0.2x
- Current ratio: 0.1x
- FCF yield: -43.6%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, FCF conversion, EPS CAGR 3Y, Net debt / EBITDA, P/E (TTM), EV/EBITDA, Shareholder yield (distributions), Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +29% / −34% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −5% / +37% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +20% / +62% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +32% / −45% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −40% / +13% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +37% / +43% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −39% / −74% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for AMTX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 3 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
| 5 years | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable | insufficient data Total return unavailable · Per year unavailable |
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Aemetis is a California company producing renewable natural gas from dairy waste, ethanol at its Keyes plant and biodiesel in India. Revenue in the second quarter of 2026 rose 20% year on year, while the company still depends on outside financing for its debt and investments, with revenue of about 62.7 million USD in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
SWOT
Strengths
- The company has operating assets, including the Keyes ethanol plant, biogas digesters and a biodiesel plant in India.
- Tax and carbon credit revenue diversifies income streams.
- Rising renewable gas volumes show that the digester strategy is working.
Weaknesses
- The company has not been consistently profitable and keeps reporting net losses.
- Heavy debt and interest payments weigh on cash flow.
- Dependence on a single partner for corn supply and working capital creates vulnerability.
Opportunities
- Growing renewable gas output and connecting new digesters could increase revenue.
- A possible IPO of the India subsidiary could bring in new capital.
- The SAF/RD and CCUS projects could open new revenue sources if completed.
Threats
- Volatile prices of ethanol, corn and gas can quickly squeeze margins.
- Changes in biofuel policy and tax credits could directly affect revenue.
- Refinancing difficulties could force asset sales or project delays.
Risks
- Heavy indebtednesshigh
Debt is substantial and largely callable on demand, and failure to refinance could lead to a payment default.
- Going concern uncertaintyhigh
Financial condition and reliance on external support point to significant uncertainty about the ability to continue operating.
- Margin volatilitymedium
Margins depend on the spread between feedstock costs and product prices, which can swing sharply.
- Supplier dependencemedium
The working capital agreement with the California partner can be terminated on short notice.
- Execution riskmedium
Development projects could exceed budget or schedule, and technology results are not assured.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in renewable gas volumes and credit revenue continues, operating results could keep improving.
- Completing the MVR system at Keyes could lower energy costs and raise plant profitability.
- A successful IPO of the India subsidiary could unlock value and ease financing pressure.
What would break the thesis
- If net losses persist, the company could remain dependent on costly financing or dilution.
- If debt cannot be refinanced, assets could be sold on unfavorable terms.
- If the Indian government does not resume biodiesel purchases, revenue from India could stay weak.
What to watch
- RNG volume growth and commissioning of new digestersQ3 2026
- Completion of the MVR system at the Keyes plant2026
- Long-term financing of the Keyes plant and refinancing of debtnext 10-K
- Timing of a possible IPO of the India subsidiary2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Aemetis, Inc., founded in 2006 and headquartered in Cupertino, California, is a renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company that turns agricultural products and wastes into low-emission fuels. It runs three reportable segments: California Ethanol, California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas and India Biodiesel, plus an 'All Other' category for projects under development such as SAF/RD and CCUS. The company says it relies on external capital and operating cash flow to finance its debt and growth.
Segments
California Ethanol
This segment operates the Keyes plant, with a capacity of 65 million gallons per year, selling ethanol, WDG and other co-products. In the second quarter of 2026 segment revenue rose 41.8% year on year, supported partly by Section 45Z production tax credits.
California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas
The segment operates twelve anaerobic digesters that produce biogas from dairy manure, which is converted into renewable natural gas. RNG volumes rose in the second quarter of 2026, but segment revenue remains small relative to ethanol.
Market context
The California ethanol market is smaller than the state's consumption, and the company competes with ethanol shipped from the Midwest and imported from Brazil. RIN and LCFS credits, central to RNG revenue, have volatile prices driven by regulation, so results can vary widely from quarter to quarter.
Trends
- Section 45Z tax creditsmixed
Production tax credits under Section 45Z added revenue in 2026 and helped gross profit. If this tax support changes, margins could be affected.
- Indian biodiesel demandheadwind
Biodiesel sales fell sharply as state oil companies in India made no new purchases. A renewed biofuel policy push could support volumes if tenders resume.
- Lower gas use and RNG pricingtailwind
Installing the MVR system at Keyes could cut fossil gas use sharply. Higher LCFS credit prices also support RNG revenue.
- Financing pressureheadwind
Large debt and dependence on outside financing limit the company's flexibility. Refinancing or extending maturities could prove decisive.
Competitive position
In ethanol, producers compete on price and carbon intensity, and Aemetis faces imports and Midwest supply. In biodiesel, the company competes with state-owned and private oil companies in India, which hold much larger shares of the diesel market.
- Midwest ethanol producers
Supply ethanol shipped into California and compete directly on price in the ethanol segment.
- Brazilian ethanol importers
Bring ethanol into California and influence local fuel prices.
- Indian state-owned oil companies
Dominate diesel distribution and buy biodiesel for blending, while also being the company's main customers.
- Other RIN and LCFS credit generators
Compete in credit markets, which directly influence renewable gas revenue.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
Loading the links…
News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report26 May 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement07 Apr 2026
- Current report16 Mar 2026Item 4.01 · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report16 Mar 2026
- Current report12 Mar 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report19 Feb 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Aemetis, Inc. · 16 Mar 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Aemetis, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Aemetis, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.