olivLaw · US equity research
Green Plains Inc. GPRE
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
Green Plains produces low-CI ethanol and protein co-products from corn through nine biorefineries in the US Midwest. The company is in a margin recovery phase, supported by 45Z tax credits and carbon capture in Nebraska, after reducing debt and selling assets in 2025. Second quarter 2026 results show a clear return to profitability after a difficult prior year.
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) stock was 13.66 USD (−2.91% on the day), with market capitalisation 957.5 m USD, P/E 8.6 on diluted EPS of 1.59 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 3.51%, beta 1.06, 52-week range 9.40–19.23 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 446.2 m USD (−19.3% YoY), net income of 67.1 m USD, diluted EPS 0.83 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 41.6
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 13.19 – 15.22
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.23 · band width 14.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 14.69 / 15.29
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -0.31 / -0.31
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −9.8% | −1.1% | −8.7 pp | — |
| 3 months | −17.2% | −0.5% | −16.7 pp | — |
| 6 months | −19.5% | +4.4% | −23.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +39.4% | +12.3% | +27.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +36.3% | +13.5% | +22.8 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | −51.6% | +76.4% | −128.0 pp | −26.4% |
| 5 years | −67.5% | +63.7% | −131.2 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 658.7 m | 584.0 m | 601.5 m | 552.8 m | 508.5 m | 428.8 m | 445.8 m | 446.2 m |
| Cost of revenue | 580.6 m | 577.9 m | 598.5 m | 511.3 m | 456.3 m | 388.7 m | 357.9 m | 333.2 m |
| Gross profit | 78.1 m | 6.2 m | 3.0 m | 41.6 m | 52.2 m | 40.2 m | 87.9 m | 113.0 m |
| SG&A | 26.7 m | 25.6 m | 42.9 m | 27.6 m | 29.3 m | 22.9 m | 19.5 m | 21.7 m |
| Operating income | 56.1 m | -40.9 m | -62.3 m | -28.4 m | 33.9 m | -10.5 m | 44.8 m | 67.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 26.1 m | 21.4 m | 22.4 m | 27.6 m | 25.0 m | 23.5 m | 23.6 m | 23.4 m |
| Interest expense | 10.1 m | 7.7 m | 8.9 m | 13.9 m | 47.8 m | 6.1 m | 11.5 m | 8.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 48.2 m | -46.4 m | -71.7 m | -41.7 m | -15.5 m | -15.0 m | 36.4 m | 61.7 m |
| Income tax | -825.0 k | 7.0 m | 106.0 k | 2.3 m | -25.6 m | -28.5 m | 2.9 m | -5.5 m |
| Net income | 48.2 m | -54.9 m | -72.9 m | -72.2 m | 11.9 m | 11.9 m | 32.9 m | 67.1 m |
| Diluted EPS | 0.69 | -0.86 ≈ | -1.14 | -1.09 | 0.17 | 0.17 ≈ | 0.42 | 0.83 |
| Operating cash flow | 62.7 m ≈ | -27.0 m | -55.0 m | 58.8 m ≈ | 39.8 m ≈ | 67.3 m | -39.5 m | 86.3 m ≈ |
| Capex | 28.3 m ≈ | 27.3 m | 16.7 m | 11.1 m ≈ | 4.0 m ≈ | 5.3 m | 6.4 m | 10.7 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 0 ≈ | 5.2 m | — | — | — | — | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 10-quarter history (min 9.7, median 29.9, max 286.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3.0 bn | 2.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | −9.3% | −19.0% | −20.4% | +47.0% | +29.6% | −10.0% | −25.4% | −14.9% |
| Net income | 15.9 m | -166.9 m | -108.8 m | -66.0 m | -127.2 m | -93.4 m | -82.5 m | -121.3 m |
| Net income YoY | −73.9% | −1,147.9% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| Diluted EPS | 0.39 | -4.38 | -3.14 | -1.41 | -2.29 | -1.59 | -1.29 | -1.80 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −73.5% | −1,223.1% | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable | unavailable |
| net % | 0.5% | -6.9% | -5.7% | -2.3% | -3.5% | -2.8% | -3.4% | -5.8% |
| Free cash flow | -1.6 m | -85.0 m | -11.7 m | -182.9 m | -142.7 m | -51.7 m | -125.0 m | 73.7 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 182.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 395.6 m USD
- Net debt
- 213.3 m USD
- Equity
- 772.0 m USD
- Total assets
- 1.6 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.51x
- Current ratio
- 1.94x
- ROE
- -14.7%
- ROA
- -7.2%
- FCF margin
- 3.5%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.3 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 1.8 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.6 bn | 3.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 111.6 m | 202.1 m | 112.7 m | 164.8 m | 130.5 m | 136.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 84.9 m | 91.1 m | 118.9 m | 133.4 m | 118.0 m | 122.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | -122.7 m | 25.5 m | -98.9 m | -61.6 m | -47.5 m | -67.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 78.2 m | 92.0 m | 92.7 m | 98.2 m | 90.6 m | 98.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | -44.5 m ≈ | 117.5 m ≈ | -6.3 m ≈ | 36.7 m ≈ | 43.1 m ≈ | 31.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 40.0 m | 67.1 m | 32.6 m | 37.7 m | 33.1 m | 76.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | -161.1 m | -43.0 m | -98.7 m | -82.3 m | -71.3 m | -143.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -50.4 m | 1.8 m | 4.7 m | -5.6 m | 6.2 m | -51.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -108.8 m | -66.0 m | -127.2 m | -93.4 m | -82.5 m | -121.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -3.14 | -1.41 | -2.29 | -1.59 | -1.29 | -1.80 | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 34.6 m | 46.7 m | 55.5 m | 58.8 m | 63.8 m | 67.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 233.9 m | 426.2 m | 444.7 m | 349.6 m | 173.0 m | 182.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 55.6 m | 120.0 m | 108.6 m | 94.4 m | 94.9 m | 74.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 642.4 m | 1.1 bn | 928.8 m | 732.7 m | 569.0 m | 522.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 801.7 m | 893.5 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 957.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 10.6 m | 29.1 m | 29.1 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2023verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | — | 22.8 m | 18.0 m | 15.1 m | 12.7 m | 10.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 140.1 m | 146.1 m | 234.3 m | 186.6 m | 154.8 m | 134.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 140.8 m | 173.4 m | 137.7 m | 106.0 m | 140.8 m | 33.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 287.3 m | 514.0 m | 495.2 m | 491.9 m | 432.5 m | 362.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 452.6 m | 471.8 m | 486.9 m | 385.0 m | 385.7 m | 268.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 802.3 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 949.3 m | 907.6 m | 812.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 May 2026verified |
| Equity | 738.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 990.1 m | 874.5 m | 772.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 98.9 m | 4.2 m | 69.7 m | 56.3 m | -30.0 m | 110.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 110.6 m | 187.2 m | 212.4 m | 108.1 m | 95.1 m | 37.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | -11.7 m ≈ | -182.9 m ≈ | -142.7 m ≈ | -51.7 m ≈ | -125.0 m ≈ | 73.7 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -11.5 m | -236.3 m | -105.3 m | -106.9 m | -62.1 m | 162.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -82.5 m | 518.2 m | -25.1 m | -71.0 m | -77.4 m | -252.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 9.7 m | 9.3 m | 22.6 m | 22.7 m | 5.2 m | 721.0 k | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 11.5 m | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 68 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 957.5 m USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation82
- Balance sheet57
- Quality85
- Growth0
- Returns69
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 6.31 – 53.22 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)30.35 – 53.22 (Mid 38.69)WACC 8.0% · starting FCFF 189.1 m USD · terminal value share of EV 76%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA16.19 – 46.85 (Mid 28.48)6 companies used · median multiple 9.6x · quartiles 5.9x – 15.2xALTO, LYB, MEOH, NEU, SXT, WLK
- Peers: P/E12.55 – 24.14 (Mid 20.50)7 companies used · median multiple 12.9x · quartiles 7.9x – 15.2xALTO, LNZA, LYB, NEU, REX, SXT, WLKP
- Dividend discount (DDM)6.31 – 8.48 (Mid 7.24)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 68/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 10.2% | 80 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 6.8% | 79 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 102.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -17.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.0x | 71 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 1.9x | 5 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 2.0x | 99 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 8.6x | 78 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 5.1x | 71 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 13.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 3.4% | 48 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 1.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality85/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns69/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation82/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
Green Plains Inc. (GPRE). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -14.9%; net margin 6.8%; ROE 15.4%; net debt/EBITDA 1.0x.
The estimated value range is 14.37–35.49 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 24.49 USD, the price of 13.66 USD leaves a potential of 79.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 44.2% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 68/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 10.2%
- Net margin: 6.8%
- FCF conversion: 102.8%
- Net debt / EBITDA: 1.0x
- Current ratio: 2.0x
- P/E (TTM): 8.6x
- EV/EBITDA: 5.1x
- FCF yield: 13.3%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 1.8%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -17.0%
- Interest coverage: 1.9x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +29% / −34% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −5% / +37% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +20% / +62% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +36% / −52% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −40% / +13% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +37% / +43% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −28% / −72% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for GPRE from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 8.11 Total return -41% · Per year -41% | 14.42 Total return 6% · Per year 6% | 21.81 Total return 60% · Per year 60% |
| 3 years | 6.44 Total return -53% · Per year -22% | 13.01 Total return -5% · Per year -2% | 21.81 Total return 60% · Per year 17% |
| 5 years | 5.12 Total return -63% · Per year -18% | 11.74 Total return -14% · Per year -3% | 21.81 Total return 60% · Per year 10% |
- Exit P/E± 3.25
- Net margin± 2.28
- Annual revenue growth± 2.06
- Annual dilution± 0.19
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
Green Plains produces low-CI ethanol and protein co-products from corn through nine biorefineries in the US Midwest. The company is in a margin recovery phase, supported by 45Z tax credits and carbon capture in Nebraska, after reducing debt and selling assets in 2025. Second quarter 2026 results show a clear return to profitability after a difficult prior year.
SWOT
Strengths
- The platform has nine plants in the Midwest and an integrated portfolio including carbon capture now operating in Nebraska 1. Risk management and the internal margin management system are described as core competencies 1.
- The company has reduced administrative costs and improved liquidity through asset sales and refinancing 13. Second quarter 2026 results point to significant cash generation capacity 3.
- The 45Z tax benefits and low-carbon fuel programs add income beyond plain ethanol margins 13.
Weaknesses
- Margins are very sensitive to corn, natural gas and ethanol prices, and fluctuations can make production unprofitable 1.
- The Shenandoah dextrose project is idled, meaning investment has not yet paid off and infrastructure improvements may be needed 1.
- A significant share of results depends on tax credits, which have a limited life and are subject to changing rules 12.
Opportunities
- If demand for SAF and other low-CI fuels grows, low-CI ethanol could become a valuable feedstock 1.
- Extending carbon capture to Iowa and Minnesota could lower the platform's CI further if the Summit projects proceed 1.
- Export markets, especially Canada, could absorb additional ethanol volumes if their climate policies remain supportive 1.
Risks
- Dependence on marginshigh
The spread between corn and natural gas prices and product prices can vary widely, and the company could slow or suspend production if margins compress 1.
- 45Z credit riskshigh
The credit value depends on CI scores, rules that are not yet final and monetization markets, and benefits could be lower than the company expects 1.
- Carbon capture and infrastructuremedium
Pipeline gaps or permit delays could limit CCS benefits, and the company has limited ability to insure some of these risks 1.
- Concentration with a main marketermedium
An exclusive ethanol marketing agreement with Eco-Energy and concentrated counterparty exposure could affect the company if the relationship changes 1.
- Debt and convertible instrumentsmedium
Convertible notes and the revolving facility carry maturities and terms that could create liquidity pressure if results decline 12.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If margins stay strong and 45Z credits continue to be recognized across all plants, quarterly results could remain well above last year's levels 3.
- Carbon capture in Nebraska and planned projects in Iowa and Minnesota could provide a cost advantage for low-CI ethanol if it sells well in clean fuel markets 1.
- Debt reduction and lower SG&A could strengthen the balance sheet, creating room for investment if conditions remain favorable 3.
What would break the thesis
- If 45Z rules change or credits expire, a large part of recent profitability could disappear 12.
- Ethanol margins have been negative in the past, and a fresh drop in prices or a rise in corn costs could bring losses back 13.
- Asset sales, such as the Tennessee plant, have reduced revenues, and lower volumes could weigh further on turnover 3.
What to watch
- Trend in the consolidated crush margin and plant utilizationQ3 2026
- Final 45Z rules and RVOs for 2026-20272026
- Progress of Summit Carbon Solutions CCS projects and restart of dextrose production2027
- Debt reduction and renewal of the revolving facility, maturing September 2027next 10-K
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Green Plains Inc., an Iowa corporation, describes itself as a renewable fuels and agricultural technology company focused on low-CI ethanol and co-products such as high protein feeds and corn oil 1. Founded in 2004, the company owns nine plants across the Midwest, capable of processing about 287 million bushels of corn a year when all plants operate 1. In 2025, under new leadership, it completed asset sales, strengthened liquidity and reduced debt 1.
The two reporting segments are ethanol production, covering production, storage and transport of ethanol, distillers grains, Ultra-High Protein and corn oil, and agribusiness and energy services, covering grain procurement, storage and commodity marketing 1. In the second quarter of 2026 the company reported revenues of 446.2 million USD and net income attributable to the company of 67.1 million USD, versus a loss in the same period of the prior year 3. Results were helped by 45Z credits, which contributed significantly to adjusted EBITDA 3.
The strategy relies on carbon capture and storage, operating now at three Nebraska plants and committed for other sites through Summit Carbon Solutions, with operations projected from 2028 2. The company also aims to use protein and corn oil as feedstocks for advanced fuels including SAF 1. The CST dextrose process at Shenandoah has been idled since the first quarter of 2025 while the product mix is optimized 1.
Segments
Agribusiness and energy services
This segment covers grain procurement, storage, commodity marketing and trading of natural gas and other commodities, including for third parties 1. In the second quarter of 2026 it generated a gross margin of 8.8 million USD, slightly above the same period of 2025 3.
Market context
Ethanol remains a low-CI oxygenate making up about 10.1% of the US domestic surface transportation gasoline supply 1. According to the source, net ethanol exports could range from 2.1 to 2.3 billion gallons in 2026, with Canada the largest destination 1. The protein market is pressured by expanded US soy crushing capacity, which has compressed protein values, according to the source 1.
Policy remains a key factor: the Renewable Fuel Standard and the 45Z credit shape demand and revenues 1. Proposed EPA volume requirements for 2026-2027 and proposed 45Z rules could change the value of credits if finalized in their current form 1.
Trends
- 45Z tax creditsmixed
45Z credits have become a major component of results, and the company has recognized them at all eight operating plants in 2026 2. However, the credits are scheduled to expire in 2029, and their value depends on rules still being changed 12.
- Carbon capturetailwind
CCS operations in Nebraska have lowered the CI of the company's ethanol, which could extend tax benefits and access to low-emission fuel programs 1. Implementation, however, depends on pipeline infrastructure and permits that lie outside the company's control 1.
- Ethanol trade and tariffsheadwind
Tariffs on ethanol imports from Brazil and new trade policies have created uncertainty over import pricing and the risk of retaliatory measures 1. If these tensions intensify, the competitiveness of US exports could be affected 1.
Competitive position
Green Plains competes with other US and foreign ethanol producers, as well as with soybean meal, vegetable oil and other protein feed producers 1. The sources do not name US-listed competitors with US tickers, and expanding soy crushing capacity directly pressures protein prices 1.
In oils, corn oil competes with soybean oil, canola oil and waste oils, and imported renewable fuels can influence prices 1. The company could be affected if alternative feedstock supply rises significantly 1.
- Other US and foreign ethanol producers
Compete in ethanol and co-product markets, including the export markets named in the report 1.
- Soybean meal producers
Compete with the company's protein feeds, and expanded soy crushing capacity has compressed prices 1.
- Vegetable oil and waste oil producers
Compete with corn oil as feedstock for biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF 1.
- Importers of biofuels
Imported ethanol, including from Brazil, can influence prices and market share in the US market 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Current report30 Oct 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report06 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report07 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement24 Apr 2026
- Current report23 Apr 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Annual report10 Feb 2026
- Current report05 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Green Plains Inc. · 10 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Green Plains Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Green Plains Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.