olivLaw · US equity research
LYB LYB
Industrial Organic Chemicals · SIC 2860 · Vertical: Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860)
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) reported a difficult fiscal 2025, with revenues of 30.153 billion USD and a net loss of 738 million USD, driven largely by impairments and pressure on petrochemical markets. The second quarter of 2026 brought a margin recovery, with revenues of 9.177 billion USD and net income of 559 million USD, supported by supply constraints linked to the Middle East conflict.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, LYB (LYB) stock was 62.96 USD (−4.74% on the day), with market capitalisation 20.4 bn USD, P/E 15.6 on diluted EPS of -2.34 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 5.46%, beta 0.60, 52-week range 42.28–82.38 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 8.5 bn USD (+10.0% YoY), net income of 758.0 m USD, diluted EPS 2.32 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 46.9
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 58.56 – 69.66
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.40 · band width 17.3%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 62.75 / 64.07
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 1.27 / 1.29
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +6.3% | −1.1% | +7.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +6.7% | −0.5% | +7.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −14.3% | +4.4% | −18.7 pp | — |
| Year to date | +45.4% | +12.3% | +33.1 pp | — |
| 1 year | +41.7% | +13.5% | +28.1 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | −32.1% | +76.4% | −108.5 pp | −26.4% |
| 5 years | −32.3% | +63.7% | −96.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7.8 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.7 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.2 bn | 9.2 bn | 8.5 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 7.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 6.9 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.8 bn | 6.5 bn | 7.1 bn | 7.0 bn |
| Research & development | 39.0 m | 34.0 m | 35.0 m | 34.0 m | 33.0 m | 36.0 m | 34.0 m | 35.0 m |
| SG&A | 419.0 m | 401.0 m | 435.0 m | 401.0 m | 373.0 m | 411.0 m | 387.0 m | 394.0 m |
| Operating income | -597.0 m | 114.0 m | 285.0 m | -731.0 m | -88.0 m | 239.0 m | 1.5 bn | 1.1 bn |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 389.0 m | 323.0 m | 332.0 m ≈ | 350.0 m ≈ | 385.0 m | 342.0 m | 347.0 m ≈ | 370.0 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 116.0 m | 107.0 m | 118.0 m | 130.0 m | 132.0 m | 138.0 m | 138.0 m | 138.0 m |
| Pre-tax income | -818.0 m | 59.0 m | 224.0 m | -856.0 m | -142.0 m | 137.0 m | 808.0 m | 963.0 m |
| Income tax | -255.0 m | 36.0 m | 69.0 m | -27.0 m | -8.0 m | -2.0 m | 236.0 m | 187.0 m |
| Net income | -603.0 m | 177.0 m | 115.0 m | -890.0 m | -140.0 m | 125.0 m | 559.0 m | 758.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | — | 0.54 | 0.34 | -2.77 | — | 0.38 | 1.71 | 2.32 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.9 bn | -579.0 m | 351.0 m ≈ | 983.0 m ≈ | 1.5 bn | -269.0 m | 752.0 m ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 504.0 m | 483.0 m | 539.0 m ≈ | 406.0 m ≈ | 450.0 m | 269.0 m | 270.0 m ≈ | 303.0 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 437.0 m | 433.0 m | 445.0 m ≈ | 443.0 m ≈ | 443.0 m | 224.0 m | 224.0 m ≈ | 224.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 78.0 m | 110.0 m | 91.0 m ≈ | 0 ≈ | 0 | 0 | 0 ≈ | 0 ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 39.0 bn | 34.7 bn | 27.8 bn | 46.2 bn | 50.5 bn | 33.3 bn | 33.4 bn | 30.2 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +13.1% | −11.0% | −20.1% | +66.4% | +9.3% | −33.9% | +0.2% | −9.7% |
| Net income | 4.7 bn | 3.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | -738.0 m |
| Net income YoY | −3.9% | −27.6% | −58.0% | +293.6% | −30.8% | −45.5% | −35.5% | −154.0% |
| Diluted EPS | 12.01 | 9.58 | 4.24 | 16.75 | 11.81 | 6.46 | 4.15 | -2.34 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −1.8% | −20.2% | −55.7% | +295.0% | −29.5% | −45.3% | −35.8% | −156.4% |
| net % | 12.0% | 9.8% | 5.1% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.1% | -2.4% |
| Free cash flow | 3.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 5.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 2.0 bn | 384.0 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.4 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 226.0 m USD
- Net debt
- -3.2 bn USD
- Equity
- 10.1 bn USD
- Total assets
- 34.0 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.02x
- Current ratio
- 1.77x
- ROE
- -6.5%
- ROA
- -2.1%
- FCF margin
- 1.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 27.8 bn | 46.2 bn | 50.5 bn | 33.3 bn | 33.4 bn | 30.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 24.4 bn | 37.4 bn | 43.8 bn | 28.4 bn | 28.8 bn | 27.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 3.4 bn ≈ | 8.8 bn ≈ | 6.6 bn ≈ | 4.9 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 113.0 m | 124.0 m | 124.0 m | 130.0 m | 135.0 m | 136.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 1.1 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 1.6 bn | 6.8 bn | 5.1 bn | 2.7 bn | 1.9 bn | -420.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 2.9 bn ≈ | 8.2 bn ≈ | 6.4 bn ≈ | 4.3 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 970.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 526.0 m | 519.0 m | 287.0 m | 477.0 m | 481.0 m | 487.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 1.4 bn | 6.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 2.3 bn | 1.7 bn | -715.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -43.0 m | 1.2 bn | 882.0 m | 433.0 m | 259.0 m | 70.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 1.4 bn | 5.6 bn | 3.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.4 bn | -738.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.24 | 16.75 | 11.81 | 6.46 | 4.15 | -2.34 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 4.20 | 4.44 | 4.70 | 4.94 | 5.27 | 5.45 | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.8 bn | 1.5 bn | 2.2 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | 3.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 3.3 bn | 4.6 bn | 3.4 bn | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Feb 2023verified |
| Inventories | 4.3 bn | 4.9 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.7 bn | 3.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 11.6 bn | 12.2 bn | 11.8 bn | 13.2 bn | 12.3 bn | 10.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 14.4 bn | 14.6 bn | 15.4 bn | 15.5 bn | 15.1 bn | 15.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 708.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 751.0 m | 695.0 m | 662.0 m | 641.0 m | 577.0 m | 450.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 35.4 bn | 36.7 bn | 36.4 bn | 37.0 bn | 35.7 bn | 34.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 663.0 m | 362.0 m | 349.0 m | 117.0 m | 119.0 m | 226.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 5.5 bn | 7.2 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.2 bn | 6.7 bn | 6.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 8.0 bn | 11.9 bn | 12.6 bn | 12.9 bn | 12.5 bn | 10.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 3.4 bn | 7.7 bn | 6.1 bn | 4.9 bn | 3.8 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | 1.9 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 1.5 bn ≈ | 5.7 bn ≈ | 4.2 bn ≈ | 3.4 bn ≈ | 2.0 bn ≈ | 384.0 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -4.9 bn | -1.5 bn | -2.0 bn | -1.8 bn | -1.9 bn | -1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 2.3 bn | -6.4 bn | -3.4 bn | -2.0 bn | -1.9 bn | -507.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 3.2 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 4.0 m | 463.0 m | 420.0 m | 211.0 m | 195.0 m | 201.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 20 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
Risk
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 75 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 20.4 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet83
- Growth0
- Quality90
- Returns87
- Valuation76
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 27.89 – 206.54 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)102.22 – 150.00 (Mid 120.84)WACC 9.2% · starting FCFF 2.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 72%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: no growth between −30% and +40% justifies the price
- Peers: EV/EBITDA86.53 – 206.54 (Mid 134.20)6 companies used · median multiple 9.6x · quartiles 5.9x – 15.2xALTO, GPRE, MEOH, NEU, SXT, WLK
- Peers: P/E27.89 – 55.53 (Mid 42.30)7 companies used · median multiple 10.5x · quartiles 6.9x – 13.8xALTO, GPRE, LNZA, NEU, REX, SXT, WLKP
- Dividend discount (DDM)71.62 – 96.31 (Mid 82.15)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 75/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 24.5% | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Net margin · Quality | 4.1% | 63 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 185.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | -15.8% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | -0.7x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 5.1x | 55 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.8x | 81 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 15.6x | 33 (vs peers) | 11% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 4.1x | 100 (vs peers) | 11% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 11.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.5% | 78 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 46.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet83/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality90/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns87/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation76/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N.V. (LYB). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 30.2 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -9.7%; net margin 4.1%; ROE 11.9%; net debt/EBITDA -0.7x.
The estimated value range is 79.07–123.16 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 101.50 USD, the price of 62.96 USD leaves a potential of 61.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 38.0% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 75/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 24.5%
- FCF conversion: 185.4%
- Net debt / EBITDA: -0.7x
- Current ratio: 1.8x
- EV/EBITDA: 4.1x
- FCF yield: 11.9%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.5%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 46.2%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: -15.8%
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y.
Versus the vertical median
Industrial Organic Chemicals (SIC 2860) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 20 companies
The size band was not applied: too few companies would have remained; the vertical includes much smaller or larger companies.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFFInternational Flavors & Fragrances Inc | 22.0 bn | 122.1 | 1.3% | 1.6% | −5.2% | +26% / +16% |
| LYBLyondellbasell Industries N.V. | 20.4 bn | 15.6 | 11.9% | 4.1% | −9.7% | +42% / −32% |
| WLKWestlake Corporation | 8.7 bn | — | -4.9% | -3.9% | −8.0% | +2% / −47% |
| NEUNewmarket Corporation | 6.7 bn | 14.7 | 25.3% | 16.5% | −2.2% | −5% / +37% |
| SXTSensient Technologies Corp | 5.4 bn | 31.7 | 13.7% | 9.7% | +3.5% | +29% / +117% |
| MEOHMethanex Corporation | 5.0 bn | 70.1 | 6.4% | 4.0% | −3.5% | +83% / +53% |
| REXRex American Resources Corporation | 1.3 bn | 10.5 | 22.5% | 20.9% | +1.2% | +20% / +62% |
| GPREGreen Plains Inc. | 957.5 m | 8.6 | 15.4% | 6.8% | −14.9% | +32% / −45% |
| WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LP | 761.8 m | 12.9 | — | 4.8% | +2.7% | +14% / −5% |
| GEVOGevo, Inc. | 316.5 m | — | -57.0% | -119.9% | +849.3% | −40% / +13% |
| ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc. | 271.5 m | 5.3 | 22.2% | 5.5% | −4.9% | +37% / +43% |
| FFFuturefuel Corp. | 246.5 m | — | -18.3% | -19.9% | −60.7% | +70% / −5% |
| CDXSCodexis, Inc. | 118.3 m | — | -69.4% | -39.6% | +18.6% | −38% / −54% |
| LODEComstock Inc. | 113.3 m | — | -38.2% | -3,680.5% | −48.5% | −58% / −68% |
| AMTXAemetis, Inc | 90.2 m | — | — | -27.4% | −26.2% | −28% / −72% |
| TANHTantech Holdings Ltd | 90.1 m | — | -25.7% | -80.9% | −10.7% | −76% / −100% |
| LNZALanzaTech Global, Inc. | 69.2 m | 0.4 | 146.4% | 295.7% | +12.6% | −63% / −99% |
| SAFXXcf Global, Inc. | 41.0 m | — | -246.1% | — | unavailable | −87% / unavailable |
| TOMZTomi Environmental Solutions, Inc. | 18.2 m | — | -168.8% | -49.8% | −27.2% | −6% / −26% |
| CNEYCn Energy Group. Inc. | 2.5 m | — | -11.2% | -31.3% | −30.2% | −65% / −99% |
| BAKBraskem SA | — | — | — | -14.6% | +9.7% | −61% / −86% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for LYB from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 33.66 Total return -47% · Per year -47% | 59.81 Total return -5% · Per year -5% | 90.51 Total return 44% · Per year 44% |
| 3 years | 26.73 Total return -58% · Per year -25% | 53.98 Total return -14% · Per year -5% | 90.51 Total return 44% · Per year 13% |
| 5 years | 21.22 Total return -66% · Per year -20% | 48.72 Total return -23% · Per year -5% | 90.51 Total return 44% · Per year 8% |
- Exit P/E± 13.50
- Net margin± 9.45
- Annual revenue growth± 8.53
- Annual dilution± 0.79
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results).
In brief
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. (LYB) reported a difficult fiscal 2025, with revenues of 30.153 billion USD and a net loss of 738 million USD 1, driven largely by impairments and pressure on petrochemical markets. The second quarter of 2026 brought a margin recovery, with revenues of 9.177 billion USD and net income of 559 million USD 23, supported by supply constraints linked to the Middle East conflict.
SWOT
Strengths
- A portfolio with North American assets advantaged by gas-based feedstock costs, running at high utilisation in the second quarter of 2026 3.
- Solid liquidity at the end of the second quarter of 2026, with an undrawn credit facility 3.
- The Advanced Polymer Solutions segment showed gains from margin improvement and portfolio optimisation 1.
Weaknesses
- Annual results were hit by impairments and losses, which weakened confidence in the profitability of European assets 1.
- The company depends on raw material and energy prices, which make up most of cost of sales 1.
- The sale of European assets produced a significant accounting loss, and profit still depends on market conditions 2.
Opportunities
- If supply constraints persist, margins could stay above their 2025 levels 3.
- The restart of the Bayport facility could support volumes in Intermediates and Derivatives in the second half of the year 3.
- Achieving a lower cost structure through the Cash Improvement Plan could improve margins over the long term 3.
Risks
- Industry cyclicalityhigh
Cycles of oversupply and shortage can produce large swings in profit and cash flow, and the company says it cannot accurately predict their extent or duration 1.
- Dependence on energy and feedstock costshigh
The company cannot always pass cost increases on to customers, and supply chains with few suppliers are vulnerable 1.
- Political and geopolitical instabilitymedium
Instability in the Middle East and South America can affect the price and availability of raw materials and deliveries to customers 1.
- Access to financingmedium
The cost and availability of financing depend on credit ratings and capital markets; if cash flow falls, dividends could be reduced 1.
- Operational and safety risksmedium
Plant incidents, explosions or production interruptions can cause damage, lost revenue and legal liability, and insurance does not cover every risk 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Middle East supply constraints and higher utilisation of North American assets improved margins in the second quarter of 2026 3. If these conditions persist, results could keep improving.
- The sale of European assets and the Cash Improvement Plan could lead to a lower cost structure and stronger cash generation 3.
- Liquidity at the end of the second quarter of 2026 gives flexibility to navigate market cycles and reduce debt 3.
What would break the thesis
- The 2025 annual result was negative, with significant losses and impairments, showing vulnerability to industry cycles 1.
- Gains in 2026 rest on a temporary supply shock; if conditions normalise, margins could fall quickly 3.
- The sale of European assets produced an accounting loss and reduced revenues, and competition from gas cost-advantaged regions remains a pressure 12.
What to watch
- Ritmul revenirii ofertei din Orientul Mijlociu2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 31 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 10-Q (30 Oct 2026), 8-K (30 Oct 2026 · results).
The business
LyondellBasell is one of the world's largest producers of polymers and petrochemicals, producing and marketing polyolefins, intermediates, derivatives and advanced polymer solutions 3. Operations are organised into five reportable segments: O&P-Americas, O&P-EAI, Intermediates and Derivatives, Advanced Polymer Solutions and Technology 1. In February 2025 the company ceased operations at its Houston refinery, and refining results are reported as discontinued operations 1.
The company is in the middle of a portfolio transformation built on three strategic pillars, including growing and upgrading the core 3. In 2026 it completed the sale of select European olefins and polyolefins assets, which produced a pre-tax accounting loss of 0.734 billion USD in the second quarter 2. The Cash Improvement Plan targets lower fixed costs and reduced capital expenditure 3.
The company aims to increase the share of assets connected to advantaged feedstocks, which could reduce sensitivity to oversupply cycles 3. Profitability depends heavily on raw material and energy prices, which represent roughly 0.7 of cost of sales 1.
Market context
Petrochemical markets in 2025 faced pressure from trade disruption, falling oil prices and capacity additions that outpaced demand growth 1. In 2026 the Middle East conflict constrained global supply and lifted prices; the company expects the recovery of supply could extend into 2027 3.
The chemical industry is cyclical, alternating between periods of capacity shortage and oversupply, with prices and margins following these phases 1. The company does not anticipate a material deterioration in demand in its key markets, though near-term price uncertainty can influence buying patterns 3.
Trends
- Middle East supply constraintstailwind
The extended Middle East conflict constrained industry supply, supporting prices and margins in the second quarter of 2026 2. If supply returns slowly, the benefit could persist, but volatility remains high 3.
- Overcapacity and import competitionheadwind
New global capacity and imports pressured polymer margins in Europe and the Americas through 2025 1. If these capacities remain in operation, margin pressure could continue.
- Fixed-cost reduction and lower capextailwind
The Cash Improvement Plan targets lower fixed costs and reduced capital expenditure, with an incremental cash target by the end of 2026 3. The effect depends on execution of the plan.
- Crude oil and gas price volatilitymixed
Energy costs follow crude oil and natural gas price trends, and the spread between them can be favourable or unfavourable depending on market conditions 1. A sustained fall in crude relative to gas could weigh on North American operations.
Competitive position
LyondellBasell competes with polymer and petrochemical producers in natural gas cost-advantaged regions such as the Middle East and North America, which benefit from lower gas and NGL prices 1. Competition from these producers may reduce exports from Europe and lower margins there 1.
The company cites import competition in Europe, which reduced polymer margins in 2025 1. In polymer markets prices are set by global supply, and low-cost producers could gain share in periods of oversupply 1.
- Middle East producers
Producers in gas cost-advantaged regions benefit from lower feedstock costs and can reduce European exports through competition 1.
- North American ethylene and polyethylene producers
These producers benefit from the natural gas advantage and can influence prices and market share in North America 1.
- Asian polymer importers
Imports from Asia pressured polymer margins in Europe during 2025 1.
- Middle East producers during the conflict
The regional conflict constrained supply, shifting the competitive balance in 2026 2.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
No news in our archive over the last 180 days.
SEC filings
- Quarterly report30 Oct 2026
- Current report30 Oct 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report31 Jul 2026
- Current report31 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report29 May 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report22 May 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report01 May 2026
- Current report01 May 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement10 Apr 2026
- Annual report20 Feb 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / LYB · 20 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / LYB · 31 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / LYB · 31 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.