olivLaw · US equity research
Crocs, Inc. CROX
Rubber & Plastics Footwear · SIC 3021 · Vertical: Rubber and plastics products (SIC 30xx)
Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear through two brands, Crocs and HEYDUDE. The company reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of 1179.5 million USD, after fiscal 2025 revenue of 4040.6 million USD. Raised 2026 guidance makes the Crocs Brand momentum and HEYDUDE stabilisation the key points to follow.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, Crocs, Inc. (CROX) stock was 159.84 USD (+4.06% on the day), with market capitalisation 7.3 bn USD, P/E 11.9 on diluted EPS of 13.41 USD over the last 12 months, beta 1.05, 52-week range 73.39–159.84 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 1.0 bn USD (+4.6% YoY), net income of 216.8 m USD (+48.6% YoY), diluted EPS 4.52 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 81.7
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 97.80 – 157.94
- above the upper band · %B 1.03 · band width 47.0%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 122.32 / 111.01
- uptrend (price > SMA50 > SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 8.59 / 4.19
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +35.2% | −1.1% | +36.3 pp | — |
| 3 months | +16.4% | −0.5% | +16.9 pp | — |
| 6 months | +51.1% | +4.4% | +46.8 pp | — |
| Year to date | +86.9% | +12.3% | +74.6 pp | — |
| 1 year | +103.1% | +13.5% | +89.6 pp | +6.6% |
| 3 years | +90.4% | +76.4% | +14.0 pp | +18.3% |
| 5 years | −11.3% | +63.7% | −75.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 989.8 m | 937.3 m | 1.1 bn | 996.3 m | 957.6 m | 921.5 m | 1.2 bn | 1.0 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 416.8 m | 395.8 m | 440.5 m | 413.3 m | 434.0 m | 398.5 m | 478.8 m | 352.8 m |
| Gross profit | 572.9 m | 541.5 m | 708.8 m | 583.0 m | 523.7 m | 522.9 m | 700.7 m | 689.7 m |
| SG&A | 373.0 m | 318.6 m | 398.2 m | 375.3 m | 377.3 m | 322.1 m | 415.0 m | 397.8 m |
| Operating income | 199.9 m | 223.0 m | -427.5 m | 207.7 m | 146.4 m | 200.8 m | 285.7 m | 291.9 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 18.0 m | 18.5 m | 19.5 m | 20.3 m | 20.9 m | 20.2 m | 20.0 m | 20.6 m |
| Interest expense | 23.3 m | 22.8 m | 22.5 m | 21.7 m | 21.3 m | 20.5 m | 19.9 m | 19.1 m |
| Pre-tax income | 175.2 m | 204.9 m | -448.6 m | 189.4 m | 127.2 m | 178.8 m | 263.9 m | 277.4 m |
| Income tax | -193.7 m | 44.8 m | 43.7 m | 43.6 m | 22.1 m | 41.3 m | 59.0 m | 60.7 m |
| Net income | 368.9 m | 160.1 m | -492.3 m | 145.8 m | 105.2 m | 137.6 m | 204.9 m | 216.8 m |
| Diluted EPS | 6.36 ≈ | 2.83 | -8.82 | 2.70 | 2.05 ≈ | 2.71 | 4.13 | 4.52 |
| Operating cash flow | 321.9 m | -67.2 m | 285.8 m ≈ | 239.3 m ≈ | 252.5 m | -80.9 m | 351.7 m ≈ | 290.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 18.5 m | 15.4 m | 16.6 m ≈ | 13.2 m ≈ | 6.1 m | 18.0 m | 20.7 m ≈ | 14.9 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 226.3 m | 60.9 m | 133.3 m ≈ | 208.0 m ≈ | 180.2 m | 0 | 256.2 m ≈ | 250.0 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 57 percentile of its own 28-quarter history (min 5.6, median 11.3, max 293.5; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +6.3% | +13.1% | +12.6% | +66.9% | +53.7% | +11.5% | +3.5% | −1.5% |
| Net income | 50.4 m | 119.5 m | 312.9 m | 725.7 m | 540.2 m | 792.6 m | 950.1 m | -81.2 m |
| Net income YoY | +392.6% | +136.9% | +161.8% | +132.0% | −25.6% | +46.7% | +19.9% | −108.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -1.01 | 1.66 | 4.56 | 11.39 | 8.71 | 12.79 | 15.88 | -1.50 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | unavailable | unavailable | +174.7% | +149.8% | −23.5% | +46.8% | +24.2% | −109.4% |
| net % | 4.6% | 9.7% | 22.6% | 31.4% | 15.2% | 20.0% | 23.2% | -2.0% |
| Free cash flow | 102.2 m | 53.4 m | 224.9 m | 511.2 m | 499.0 m | 814.8 m | 923.1 m | 659.2 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 130.4 m USD
- Financial debt
- 1.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 1.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 1.3 bn USD
- Total assets
- 4.2 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 0.95x
- Current ratio
- 1.27x
- ROE
- -5.2%
- ROA
- -1.8%
- FCF margin
- 16.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 3.6 bn | 4.0 bn | 4.1 bn | 4.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 636.0 m | 893.2 m | 1.7 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 749.9 m | 1.4 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 10.2 m | 13.7 m | 18.7 m | 21.4 m | 25.6 m | 29.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| SG&A | 514.8 m | 737.2 m | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 214.1 m | 683.1 m | 850.8 m | 1.0 bn | 1.0 bn | 149.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 27.6 m | 32.0 m | 39.2 m | 54.3 m | 69.8 m | 79.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 241.7 m ≈ | 715.0 m ≈ | 890.0 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 228.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 6.7 m | 21.6 m | 136.2 m | 161.4 m | 109.3 m | 88.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 207.0 m | 663.8 m | 718.5 m | 876.3 m | 910.6 m | 73.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | -105.9 m | -61.8 m | 178.3 m | 83.7 m | -39.5 m | 154.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 312.9 m | 725.7 m | 540.2 m | 792.6 m | 950.1 m | -81.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 4.56 | 11.39 | 8.71 | 12.79 | 15.88 | -1.50 | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 68.5 m | 63.7 m | 62.0 m | 62.0 m | 59.8 m | 54.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 135.8 m | 213.2 m | 191.6 m | 149.3 m | 180.5 m | 130.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 149.8 m | 182.6 m | 295.6 m | 305.7 m | 257.7 m | 278.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 175.1 m | 213.5 m | 471.6 m | 385.1 m | 356.3 m | 368.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 492.8 m | 666.6 m | 1.0 bn | 910.7 m | 872.3 m | 885.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 57.5 m | 108.4 m | 181.5 m | 238.3 m | 244.3 m | 238.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.7 m | 1.6 m | 714.8 m | 711.6 m | 711.5 m | 404.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 37.6 m | 28.8 m | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 1.1 bn | 1.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 112.8 m | 162.1 m | 230.8 m | 261.0 m | 264.9 m | 266.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 24.4 m | 23.3 m | 0 | 0 | SEC (XBRL)· 30 Apr 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | 180.0 m | 771.4 m | 2.3 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 291.6 m | 388.2 m | 641.3 m | 698.3 m | 740.2 m | 700.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 828.1 m | 1.5 bn | 3.7 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.0 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 290.6 m † | 14.1 m † | 817.9 m † | 1.5 bn † | 1.8 bn † | 1.3 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 266.9 m | 567.2 m | 603.1 m | 930.4 m | 992.5 m | 710.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 42.0 m | 55.9 m | 104.2 m | 115.6 m | 69.3 m | 51.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 224.9 m ≈ | 511.2 m ≈ | 499.0 m ≈ | 814.8 m ≈ | 923.1 m ≈ | 659.2 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -41.8 m | -55.9 m | -2.2 bn | -115.7 m | -69.3 m | -51.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -198.0 m | -429.6 m | 1.5 bn | -859.6 m | -886.0 m | -714.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 170.8 m | 1.0 bn | 0 | 175.0 m | 552.5 m | 582.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 12 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 83 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
score >= 65 · margin_of_safety >= 0.15 · agreement in ['high', 'medium']
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 7.3 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Balance sheet72
- Growth36
- Quality91
- Returns100
- Valuation95
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 230.61 – 484.48 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)230.61 – 383.06 (Mid 288.24)WACC 8.6% · starting FCFF 817.3 m USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): -17.1%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA253.10 – 294.63 (Mid 277.06)10 companies used · median multiple 13.7x · quartiles 12.6x – 14.5xATR, AWI, CMT, CSL, KRT, MYE, NPO, NWL, SWIM, WMS
- Peers: P/E281.08 – 484.48 (Mid 324.27)12 companies used · median multiple 24.2x · quartiles 21.0x – 36.1xATR, AWI, CMT, CSL, DECK, DSWL, ENTG, KRT, MYE, NKE, ONON, WMS
- Dividend discount (DDM)unavailable · the company pays no dividend: a dividend model needs an explicit initiation assumption
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Attractive profile · Score 83/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 29.0% | 91 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 16.2% | 83 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 113.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 4.4% | 36 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 64 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 11.5x | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.4x | 53 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 11.9x | 86 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 8.4x | 100 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 10.3% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 9.4% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet72/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth· partial36/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Quality91/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation95/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
CROCS, INC. (CROX). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 4.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth -1.5%; net margin 16.2%; ROE 49.1%; net debt/EBITDA 1.1x.
The estimated value range is 253.10–383.06 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 288.24 USD, the price of 159.84 USD leaves a potential of 80.3% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 44.5% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 83/100, methodological classification: attractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: growth, returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- ROIC: 29.0%
- Net margin: 16.2%
- FCF conversion: 113.5%
- Interest coverage: 11.5x
- P/E (TTM): 11.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 8.4x
- FCF yield: 10.3%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 9.4%
- The price is below the estimated value range
What contradicts it
No signal among the computed factors. That is not an absence of risk: factors without data were not assessed, and business risks (margins, inventory, demand) are in the source-based analysis.
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): EPS CAGR 3Y, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Rubber and plastics products (SIC 30xx) · same major group (2-digit SIC) · compared with 18 companies
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENTGEntegris, Inc. | 21.8 bn | 55.7 | 9.6% | 11.1% | −1.4% | +85% / +37% |
| CSLCarlisle Companies Incorporated | 15.4 bn | 22.6 | 41.9% | 13.8% | +0.3% | +25% / +42% |
| DECKDeckers Outdoor Corp | 11.9 bn | 11.8 | 44.3% | 19.0% | +9.8% | +1% / −19% |
| ONONOn Holding AG | 11.5 bn | 56.3 | 13.5% | 6.8% | +30.0% | −12% / +33% |
| WMSAdvanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | 10.9 bn | 24.9 | 26.1% | 14.0% | +5.0% | −5% / +19% |
| ATRAptarGroup, Inc | 9.3 bn | 35.6 | 9.9% | 6.7% | +5.4% | +18% / +16% |
| AWIArmstrong World Industries, Inc. | 7.4 bn | 23.5 | 36.0% | 18.4% | +12.1% | −7% / +107% |
| CROXCrocs, Inc. | 7.3 bn | 11.9 | 49.1% | 16.2% | −1.5% | +103% / +90% |
| NPOEnpro Inc | 5.9 bn | 94.7 | 4.0% | 4.9% | +9.0% | +25% / +116% |
| NWLNewell Brands Inc | 2.5 bn | — | -12.8% | -4.4% | −5.0% | +61% / −23% |
| GTThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company | 1.3 bn | — | -63.9% | -14.4% | −3.2% | −47% / −67% |
| MYEMyers Industries, Inc. | 1.1 bn | 37.6 | 9.7% | 3.3% | −1.3% | +58% / +62% |
| KRTKarat Packaging Inc. | 1.1 bn | 21.5 | 31.2% | 10.2% | +10.7% | +143% / +149% |
| SWIMLatham Group, Inc. | 963.2 m | 100.2 | 2.2% | 1.6% | +7.4% | +14% / +262% |
| LWLGLightwave Logic, Inc. | 662.9 m | — | -34.4% | -9,134.4% | +147.7% | −1% / +8% |
| CMTCore Molding Technologies, Inc. | 187.1 m | 26.1 | 4.4% | 2.4% | −9.5% | +12% / +18% |
| DSWLDeswell Industries, Inc. | 46.5 m | 4.4 | 10.0% | 17.3% | −9.3% | −19% / +12% |
| YHGJYunhong Green Cti Ltd. | 9.2 m | — | -29.5% | -14.4% | +9.8% | −29% / −87% |
| NKENIKE, Inc. | — | 19.5 | 21.6% | 6.7% | +0.2% | −37% / −63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for CROX from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 102.24 Total return -36% · Per year -36% | 180.77 Total return 13% · Per year 13% | 272.30 Total return 70% · Per year 70% |
| 3 years | 98.95 Total return -38% · Per year -15% | 196.88 Total return 23% · Per year 7% | 325.67 Total return 104% · Per year 27% |
| 5 years | 95.76 Total return -40% · Per year -10% | 214.42 Total return 34% · Per year 6% | 389.49 Total return 144% · Per year 19% |
- Exit P/E± 49.22
- Net margin± 34.45
- Annual revenue growth± 28.32
- Annual dilution± 2.90
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
In brief
Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear through two brands, Crocs and HEYDUDE. The company reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of 1179.5 million USD 2, after fiscal 2025 revenue of 4040.6 million USD 1. Raised 2026 guidance makes the Crocs Brand momentum and HEYDUDE stabilisation the key points to follow 3.
SWOT
Strengths
- The Crocs brand has strong global recognition, built on the clog design and the proprietary Croslite material 1.
- The direct-to-consumer channel is growing and supports control over pricing and the customer experience 13.
- The company generates strong cash flow and has reduced debt while repurchasing shares on a large scale 23.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Risks
- Dependence on brand valuehigh
A fall in consumer trust in a brand, caused by products or negative publicity, could reduce demand 1.
- Asset and goodwill impairmenthigh
further impairments of the HEYDUDE brand or its goodwill could affect reported results 1.
- Tariffs and trade policymedium
Changes in tariffs could increase import costs and press gross margin 12.
- Supplier concentrationmedium
Reliance on a few third-party manufacturers could disrupt deliveries if operational problems arise 1.
- Indebtednesslow
High total borrowings limit financial flexibility if interest rates stay high 2.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- The Crocs Brand reached a record quarterly revenue level, and the direct-to-consumer channel is growing strongly 3. The 2026 outlook was raised and the share repurchase programme was expanded 3. If growth stays solid, the company could keep returning value to shareholders 3.
- Diversification into sandals, personalisation and new lines could widen the consumer base 1. Stabilising HEYDUDE could reduce pressure on total revenue 13.
- Solid cash generation and lower debt could give flexibility for investment in the brands 23.
What would break the thesis
- The HEYDUDE brand kept declining and led to major impairments, and its recovery remains uncertain 13. If the decline continues, pressure on total revenue could persist 1.
- Tariffs and unstable trade policy could reduce margins even if part of the refunds materialises 2.
- SG&A expenses rose, and direct-to-consumer costs could limit the benefit of higher sales 12.
What to watch
- Development of gross margin after IEEPA tariff refundsQ3 2026
- Return to growth of the HEYDUDE brand in the US2026
- Actual realisation of the IEEPA refundsQ3 2026
- Pace of share repurchases and debt reductionnext 10-Q
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 30 Jul 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (29 Oct 2026 · results), 10-Q (29 Oct 2026).
The business
Crocs, Inc. designs, develops, markets, distributes and sells casual footwear and accessories through two reportable segments: the Crocs Brand and the HEYDUDE Brand 1. Products are sold in more than 85 countries through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels 1. For the Crocs Brand the classic clog and Croslite material are central, while for HEYDUDE the Wally and Wendy loafers are the core silhouettes 1.
In 2025 revenue declined slightly, with the Crocs Brand growing while HEYDUDE fell sharply, leading to major impairments of the HEYDUDE trademark and goodwill 1. In the first half of 2026 the company returned to growth and raised its full-year outlook 23.
Segments
Crocs Brand
The Crocs Brand is the main growth engine: revenue rose in 2025 and passed the one billion dollar mark in a single quarter for the first time in the second quarter of 2026 13. The direct-to-consumer channel is growing faster than wholesale, and international sales make up a growing share of the total 13.
Market context
The casual footwear market is competitive and price-sensitive, and pressure on discretionary spending affects both consumers and wholesale partners 2. The company sells in more than 85 countries, with six priority Crocs markets including China, India, Japan and South Korea 1. Rising international sales show the growing weight of these markets 1.
Digital sales have grown in recent years and make up a significant part of the total 1. Tariff and transport costs affect margins in a volatile trade environment 2.
Trends
- Tariffs and trade policymixed
Tariffs on imports from Vietnam, China and other countries reduced gross margin, and part of this could be recovered if the IEEPA refunds materialise 12. Later changes to tariffs keep future costs uncertain 2.
- Pressure on consumer spendingheadwind
High interest rates and inflation reduce discretionary spending, and wholesale partners are acting cautiously 2. If this pressure persists, demand for casual footwear could stay below expectations 2.
- Growth of the direct-to-consumer channeltailwind
Direct and digital sales are growing faster than wholesale, supporting margins and brand control 13. Investment in this channel also raises SG&A costs 2.
- HEYDUDE return to growthmixed
Stabilising HEYDUDE remains a priority, but US wholesale sales keep declining 13. If the refreshed range delivers the intended effect, pressure on the segment could ease 1.
Competitive position
Competition includes most major athletic and non-athletic footwear companies, as well as retailers with private label products 1. Many competitors have larger financial resources, broader product lines and bigger marketing budgets 1. New entrants, helped by available offshore manufacturing capacity, add pressure on prices 1.
Some competitors offer products that are substantially similar in design and materials, which makes protecting trademarks and intellectual property important 1. If Crocs fails to keep its differentiation, margins could be affected 1.
- Major athletic footwear companies
Competitors with greater financial resources and distribution that can quickly launch similar products 1.
- Major non-athletic footwear companies
Competitors with broader product lines and stronger brand recognition, especially in wholesale channels 1.
- Retailers with private label footwear
Retail chains selling footwear under their own brands, pressing prices and shelf space 1.
- New offshore manufacturers
New suppliers entering the market thanks to available production capacity, increasing overall competition 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Crocs stock jumped 25% after earnings. Here's why that might be just the beginningCNBC — Top News · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- An affinity for warm climes has helped crocs thrive for eonsCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, CoreWeave, Walmart, Crocs, CarMax, Regeneron & moreCNBC — Top News · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- Crocs Touts Product Innovation, HEYDUDE Reset and Wholesale Demand Green ShootsYahoo Finance — News · 20 Sept 2026 · EN
- 9 moduri prin care Jibbitz personalizează orice pereche de Crocs (P)Mediafax · 26 Aug 2026 · RO
- Crocs’s Plan to Turn Short-Term Pain Into Long-Term GainYahoo Finance — News · 24 Aug 2026 · EN
- Crocs își majorează veniturile în trimestrul al doilea și își îmbunătățește estimările pentru întregul anG4Media · 31 Jul 2026 · RO
- TUE. T-228/25 | Crocs/EUIPO – Gor Factory (Chaussure). Crocs pierde litigiul cu Gor Factory pentru designului emblematic al saboților clasiciJuridice.ro · 01 Jul 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report29 Oct 2026
- Current report29 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Jul 2026
- Current report30 Jul 2026Results of operations · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Jun 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report30 Apr 2026
- Current report30 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement23 Apr 2026
- Annual report12 Feb 2026
- Current report12 Feb 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / Crocs, Inc. · 12 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / Crocs, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / Crocs, Inc. · 30 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.