olivLaw · US equity research
FICO FICO
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
FICO is a global analytics software leader best known for the FICO Score, the standard US measure of credit risk. The company could benefit from rapid growth in its Scores segment, which reached 1.2 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, but it also carries substantial debt and depends heavily on the US mortgage market and the banking sector.
At the close of 02 Nov 2026, FICO (FICO) stock was 724.19 USD (+1.82% on the day), with market capitalisation 15.6 bn USD, P/E 20.9 on diluted EPS of 34.62 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.02%, beta 0.82, 52-week range 592.47–1,844.98 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 674.2 m USD (+25.7% YoY), net income of 237.2 m USD (+30.5% YoY), diluted EPS 10.45 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 42.9
- weak (30–45)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 644.94 – 828.38
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.43 · band width 24.9%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 862.84 / 1,118.78
- downtrend (price < SMA50 < SMA200)
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -32.93 / -37.69
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +9.5% | −2.3% | +11.9 pp | — |
| 3 months | −30.7% | −0.8% | −30.0 pp | — |
| 6 months | −31.7% | +4.7% | −36.4 pp | — |
| Year to date | −57.2% | +10.2% | −67.3 pp | — |
| 1 year | −56.4% | +10.3% | −66.6 pp | −5.5% |
| 3 years | −22.2% | +73.0% | −95.2 pp | +10.9% |
| 5 years | +88.6% | +61.8% | +26.8 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 453.8 m | 440.0 m | 498.7 m | 536.4 m | 515.8 m | 512.0 m | 691.7 m | 674.2 m |
| Cost of revenue | 89.6 m | 87.3 m | 87.6 m | 87.6 m | 91.2 m | 87.3 m | 91.2 m | 87.0 m |
| Research & development | 44.2 m | 45.1 m | 45.0 m | 47.2 m | 51.0 m | 49.9 m | 53.9 m | 53.7 m |
| SG&A | 122.8 m | 128.0 m | 120.4 m | 139.1 m | 125.5 m | 140.7 m | 144.1 m | 170.8 m |
| Operating income | 197.2 m | 179.5 m | 245.6 m | 262.5 m | 237.2 m | 234.0 m | 402.5 m | 362.6 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 3.8 m | 3.5 m | 3.4 m ≈ | 4.0 m ≈ | 4.0 m | 4.0 m | 3.9 m ≈ | 4.2 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 28.5 m | 29.5 m | 31.4 m | 32.9 m | 39.9 m | 42.0 m | 44.6 m | 59.9 m |
| Pre-tax income | 171.4 m | 150.1 m | 213.0 m | 237.0 m | 202.5 m | 191.9 m | 356.0 m | 314.7 m |
| Income tax | 35.7 m | -2.4 m | 50.4 m | 55.2 m | 47.4 m | 33.6 m | 91.6 m | 77.5 m |
| Net income | 135.7 m | 152.5 m | 162.6 m | 181.8 m | 155.0 m | 158.4 m | 264.5 m | 237.2 m |
| Diluted EPS | 5.44 ≈ | 6.14 | 6.59 | 7.40 | 6.42 ≈ | 6.61 | 11.14 | 10.45 |
| Operating cash flow | 226.5 m | 194.0 m | 74.9 m ≈ | 286.2 m ≈ | 223.7 m | 174.1 m | 223.4 m ≈ | 380.4 m ≈ |
| Capex | 1.8 m | 841.0 k | 2.1 m ≈ | 1.8 m ≈ | 4.2 m | 226.0 k | 266.0 k ≈ | 863.0 k ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 323.5 m | 162.6 m | 217.2 m ≈ | 486.8 m ≈ | 548.0 m | 171.2 m | 605.4 m ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 0 percentile of its own 43-quarter history (min 29.0, median 45.6, max 95.0; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.0 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +10.8% | +12.4% | +11.6% | +1.7% | +4.6% | +9.9% | +13.5% | +15.9% |
| Net income | 126.5 m | 192.1 m | 236.4 m | 392.1 m | 373.5 m | 429.4 m | 512.8 m | 651.9 m |
| Net income YoY | −5.2% | +51.9% | +23.1% | +65.8% | −4.7% | +14.9% | +19.4% | +27.1% |
| Diluted EPS | 4.06 | 6.34 | 7.90 | 13.40 | 14.18 | 16.93 | 20.45 | 26.54 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −1.9% | +56.2% | +24.6% | +69.6% | +5.8% | +19.4% | +20.8% | +29.8% |
| net % | 12.3% | 16.6% | 18.3% | 29.8% | 27.1% | 28.4% | 29.9% | 32.7% |
| Free cash flow | 191.8 m | 236.4 m | 342.9 m | 416.2 m | 503.4 m | 464.7 m | 624.1 m | 769.9 m |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 30 Sept 2025
- Cash
- 134.1 m USD
- Financial debt
- 3.1 bn USD
- Net debt
- 2.9 bn USD
- Equity
- -1.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 1.9 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.83x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 36.4%
- FCF margin
- 38.7%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Cost of revenue | 361.1 m | 332.5 m | 302.2 m | 311.1 m | 348.2 m | 353.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Gross profit | 933.4 m ≈ | 984.1 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025derived |
| Research & development | 166.5 m | 171.2 m | 146.8 m | 160.0 m | 171.9 m | 188.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| SG&A | 420.9 m | 396.3 m | 383.9 m | 400.6 m | 462.8 m | 513.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Operating income | 296.0 m | 505.5 m | 542.4 m | 642.8 m | 733.6 m | 924.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 30.4 m | 25.6 m | 20.5 m | 14.6 m | 13.8 m | 15.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| EBITDA | 326.3 m ≈ | 531.1 m ≈ | 562.9 m ≈ | 657.5 m ≈ | 747.5 m ≈ | 939.8 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025derived |
| Interest expense | 42.2 m | 40.1 m | 69.0 m | 95.5 m | 105.6 m | 133.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Pre-tax income | 257.0 m | 473.1 m | 471.3 m | 553.6 m | 642.0 m | 802.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Income tax | 20.6 m | 81.1 m | 97.8 m | 124.2 m | 129.2 m | 150.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Net income | 236.4 m | 392.1 m | 373.5 m | 429.4 m | 512.8 m | 651.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Diluted EPS | 7.90 | 13.40 | 14.18 | 16.93 | 20.45 | 26.54 | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 29.9 m | 29.3 m | 26.3 m | 25.4 m | 25.1 m | 24.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 157.4 m | 195.4 m | 133.2 m | 136.8 m | 150.7 m | 134.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Receivables | 334.2 m | 312.1 m | 322.4 m | 387.9 m | 426.6 m | 529.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Current assets | 534.1 m | 551.0 m | 484.7 m | 556.4 m | 617.4 m | 705.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 46.4 m | 27.9 m | 17.6 m | 11.0 m | 38.5 m | 67.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Goodwill | 812.4 m | 788.2 m | 761.1 m | 773.3 m | 782.8 m | 783.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 9.2 m | 4.1 m | 2.0 m | 917.0 k | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Nov 2024verified |
| Total assets | 1.6 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Accounts payable | 23.0 m | 20.7 m | 17.3 m | 19.0 m | 22.5 m | 32.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Short-term debt | 95.0 m | 250.0 m | 30.0 m | 50.0 m | 15.0 m | 399.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 739.4 m | 1.0 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.8 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Current liabilities | 414.5 m | 559.2 m | 331.5 m | 367.7 m | 380.3 m | 849.2 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Total liabilities | 1.3 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.7 bn | 3.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Equity | 331.1 m † | -110.9 m † | -801.9 m † | -688.0 m † | -962.7 m † | -1.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 364.9 m | 423.8 m | 509.5 m | 468.9 m | 633.0 m | 778.8 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Capex | 22.0 m | 7.6 m | 6.0 m | 4.2 m | 8.9 m | 8.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Free cash flow | 342.9 m ≈ | 416.2 m ≈ | 503.4 m ≈ | 464.7 m ≈ | 624.1 m ≈ | 769.9 m ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025derived |
| Investing cash flow | -24.6 m | 137.9 m | -5.7 m | -16.0 m | -28.0 m | -43.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Financing cash flow | -289.4 m | -523.6 m | -547.2 m | -455.0 m | -592.9 m | -750.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
| Share repurchases | 235.2 m | 874.2 m | 1.1 bn | 405.5 m | 821.7 m | 1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Nov 2025verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 70 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
Closing price
02 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 15.6 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Quality92
- Growth100
- Valuation57
- Balance sheet44
- Returns100
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 1.05 – 1,413.66 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)735.80 – 1,413.66 (Mid 983.74)WACC 8.1% · starting FCFF 1.1 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 78%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 2.5%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA493.79 – 849.98 (Mid 676.27)10 companies used · median multiple 15.9x · quartiles 12.8x – 18.9xBR, CPAY, EBAY, FIS, GPN, MELI, MSCI, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Peers: P/E447.83 – 1,179.31 (Mid 861.19)11 companies used · median multiple 24.9x · quartiles 12.9x – 34.1xBR, CPAY, EBAY, FIS, FISV, MA, MELI, MSCI, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Dividend discount (DDM)1.05 – 1.41 (Mid 1.21)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Neutral profile · Score 70/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 34.1% | 83 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 122.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 23.2% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 4.3x | 27 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.6x | 79 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.2x | 32 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 20.9x | 55 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 16.7x | 40 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 6.4% | 80 (on a fixed band) | 10% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 23.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet44/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality92/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial100/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation57/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
FAIR ISAAC CORP (FICO). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 2.0 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 15.9%; net margin 34.1%; net debt/EBITDA 4.3x.
The estimated value range is 470.81–1,014.64 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 768.73 USD, the price of 724.19 USD leaves a potential of 6.2% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of 5.8% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 70/100, methodological classification: neutral profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 34.1%
- FCF conversion: 122.2%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 13.1%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 23.2%
- Interest coverage: 6.6x
- FCF yield: 6.4%
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 23.0%
What contradicts it
- Net debt / EBITDA: 4.3x
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 12 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 2.2 bn and 142.2 bn (within 8× of the company's); 87 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc | 136.3 bn | 14.7 | 38.4% | 17.3% | +18.3% | −24% / +18% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 85.0 bn | 45.6 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −19% / +3% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 53.1 bn | 26.3 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +46% / +195% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 48.8 bn | 11.2 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −6% / +2% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 45.6 bn | 33.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +13% / +22% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 27.6 bn | 10.0 | 10.7% | 13.4% | +3.6% | −16% / −60% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 26.9 bn | 24.9 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +38% / +70% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 26.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +32% / −14% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 21.0 bn | 19.2 | 40.9% | 15.0% | +8.5% | −19% / −5% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 20.7 bn | 6.2 | 22.3% | 27.6% | +5.4% | −39% / −32% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.3 bn | 39.2 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −5% / +47% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.6 bn | 20.9 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −56% / −22% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | — | 34.4 | 231.4% | 46.7% | +16.4% | +20% / +59% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for FICO from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 506.83 Total return -30% · Per year -30% | 892.64 Total return 23% · Per year 23% | 1,339.91 Total return 85% · Per year 85% |
| 3 years | 580.25 Total return -20% · Per year -7% | 1,141.19 Total return 58% · Per year 16% | 1,867.86 Total return 158% · Per year 37% |
| 5 years | 664.31 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 1,458.95 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 2,603.82 Total return 260% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 285.30
- Net margin± 199.71
- Annual revenue growth± 151.49
- Annual dilution± 16.78
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
FICO is a global analytics software leader best known for the FICO Score, the standard US measure of credit risk. The company could benefit from rapid growth in its Scores segment, which reached 1.2 billion dollars in fiscal 2025, but it also carries substantial debt and depends heavily on the US mortgage market and the banking sector 12.
SWOT
Strengths
- The FICO Score is the de facto standard for US credit risk and is used by most large banks 13.
- The company has a broad customer base across more than 80 countries and a considerable patent portfolio 3.
- Revenue and profit have grown quickly in recent quarters, and operating cash generation is strong 23.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
- Expanding FICO Platform to more customers and cross-selling could accelerate growth in the Software segment 12.
- Scores built on BNPL, rental or bank account data could extend credit access to people with limited history 1.
- International markets where FICO Scores are available offer long-term growth potential 1.
Threats
- The decision to allow other scores in mortgages could reduce the share held by the FICO Score in the US 1.
- Analytics software vendors and credit agencies can compete directly, and large clients have strong bargaining power 1.
- An economic downturn or banking crisis could reduce credit volumes and demand for the company's products 1.
Risks
- Dependence on FICO Score use in mortgageshigh
A removal or reduction in use of the FICO Score by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would have a significant effect on revenue 1.
- Concentration in the banking sectorhigh
Most revenue comes from banks, and a crisis in the sector could reduce sales directly 1.
- Higher indebtednessmedium
Total debt has risen considerably, which could limit financial flexibility if revenue falls 2.
- Execution of the Software strategymedium
If the transition to FICO Platform falls short, growth in the Software segment could remain slow 1.
- Competition and technological changemedium
New AI technologies or free credit scores could reduce demand for paid products 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- Revenue and profit growth in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 and the raised guidance point to solid momentum 3.
- The FICO Score holds a dominant position in the US, an advantage that competitors find hard to replicate 13.
- Platform ARR growth and the net retention rate in Software suggest customers are expanding their use of the products 23.
What would break the thesis
What to watch
- Development of FICO Platform ARR and the Software dollar-based net retention rateQ4 2026
- Delivery of the raised fiscal 2026 revenue and profit guidance2026
- FHFA decisions on credit score use in mortgages2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
The company raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to 2.53 billion dollars 3. FICO Platform, a modular software offering, is the central strategy of the Software segment, and its ARR represented 35% of total software ARR at fiscal 2025 year end 1. The company states that its scores are used by most major banks and card issuers in the US, which makes Scores a central revenue engine 13.
Revenue is concentrated: in fiscal 2025, 92% of revenues came from sales to the banking industry 1. The company also depends on a relatively small number of customers and on its contracts with the consumer reporting agencies 1.
Segments
Scores
The Scores segment includes the FICO Score used in most US credit decisions, along with industry scores and alternative-data scores that use rental, bank account or BNPL data 12. Segment revenue grew in fiscal 2025, and in the latest quarter it was driven mainly by a higher unit price on mortgage origination scores and royalties on B2C scores 3.
Market context
FICO's core market consists of banks, card issuers, credit bureaus and financial service providers in more than 80 countries 13. The US mortgage market is a major factor for the Scores segment, since Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require FICO Scores for mortgages they purchase 1. Software demand depends on how far banks modernize their decision and risk processes, and the focus on large customers makes the market concentrated 1.
Growth in Scores depends largely on mortgage volumes and unit prices, and during economic stress demand for scores and software could fall 1. The company also operates in international markets where it is less well known, which adds risk 1.
Trends
- Mortgage volumes and score pricingtailwind
Scores revenue grew strongly in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, supported by higher unit prices on mortgage scores and origination volumes 3.
- Migration to FICO Platformmixed
The company is progressively moving software products onto FICO Platform, and platform ARR is growing quickly while legacy products shrink 23.
- Mortgage score regulationheadwind
The July 2025 FHFA decision allowing originators to choose the credit score could reduce demand for the FICO Score 1.
- Rising debt and share repurchasesheadwind
Total debt rose to 5.6 billion dollars, and share repurchases reached 3.1 billion dollars in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 2. This capital allocation can support per-share metrics but raises financial risk 2.
Competitive position
Competition includes in-house analytics teams, providers of scoring models, fraud solution providers, credit reporting agencies that offer their own scores, and software vendors for predictive analytics and decision management 1. The company also expects competition from customers that build their own scoring models 1.
In the Software segment, competition also comes from alternative technologies such as biometric authentication and other card fraud prevention methods 1. These could reduce market share if clients choose cheaper or differently integrated solutions 1.
- Experian
Consumer reporting agency that distributes the FICO Score and competes through its own scores.
- TransUnion
Consumer reporting agency and distribution partner that could also compete through its own scores.
- Equifax
Consumer reporting agency that distributes FICO Scores and offers its own analytics services.
- Fraud solution and predictive analytics providers
Software companies offering fraud detection and predictive modeling solutions.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Alegerile regionale și locale din Slovacia, un test electoral pentru premierul Robert FicoG4Media · 24 Oct 2026 · RO
- Alegeri cu miză mare pentru Robert Fico. Aproape 4,4 milioane de alegători sunt chemați la urne în SlovaciaDigi24 · 24 Oct 2026 · RO
- Slovacia se rupe de UE și NATO în privința Rusiei. Guvernul lui Robert Fico reia consultările energetice cu MoscovaDigi24 · 21 Oct 2026 · RO
- NATO’s ‘False Solidarity’: Fico Says Neutrality Would Suit Slovakia BetterBalkan Insight (BIRN) · 21 Oct 2026 · EN
- EU Backs €70B Request as Fico Rebuffs New LoanKyiv Post · 17 Oct 2026 · EN
- Slovakia, Hungary won't join 70 billion euro EU package sought by Ukraine, Fico saysKyiv Independent (UA, EN) · 17 Oct 2026 · EN
- Premierul Robert Fico a părăsit prematur summitul UE pentru a pleca în Serbia să-l susțină pe Aleksandar VucicAgerpres · 16 Oct 2026 · RO
- How Slovakia’s Fico became Putin’s top ally inside the EUEUobserver · 15 Oct 2026 · EN
- Politco: Rusia încearcă să-și refacă influența în UE, după înfrângerea lui Orban / Fico reia cooperarea cu MoscovaG4Media · 15 Oct 2026 · RO
- Slovak PM Fico announces trip to Ukraine, as well as talks with RussiaUkrainska Pravda (UA, EN) · 14 Oct 2026 · EN
- „Un semn al declinului UE!” Fico explodează după expunerea în Parlamentul European a statuii cu Trump dezbrăcat și cere îndepărtarea eiAdevărul · 08 Oct 2026 · RO
- Robert Fico cere să fie retrasă statuia cu Donald Trump gol, expusă în Parlamentul European: „O insultă la adresa președintelui”Antena 3 CNN · 08 Oct 2026 · RO
- Sculptura nudă care-l satirizează pe Trump îl deranjează pe premierul slovac Fico: „Un semn al declinului UE” / „The Orange Plague” a fost expusă la Parlamentul European în urma unei invitații a europarlamentarului danez Per ClausenG4Media · 08 Oct 2026 · RO
- Premierul slovac Fico cere să fie retrasă statuia cu Trump gol expusă în Parlamentul EuropeanFinancial Intelligence (RO) · 08 Oct 2026 · RO
- Robert Fico, revoltat de statuia cu Donald Trump expusă în Parlamentul European. Premierul slovac cere îndepărtarea acesteia: „Un semn al declinului UE”Mediafax · 08 Oct 2026 · RO
- Slovakia’s Fico calls nude Trump statue a sign of EU declinePolitico EU · 08 Oct 2026 · EN
- Fico and Somma chef Mirko Febbrile keeps saying he needs a break. Instead, he keeps buildingCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 06 Oct 2026 · EN
- FICO cuts workforce by 15% as part of AI-driven restructuringCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 06 Oct 2026 · EN
- FICO cuts workforce by 15% in AI-driven restructuringCNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 06 Oct 2026 · EN
- Monument dedicat mareșalului sovietic Ivan Konev, inaugurat în Slovacia. Inițiativa, lansată de premierul Robert FicoAdevărul · 05 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Current report06 Oct 2026Exit or disposal costs
- Quarterly report29 Jul 2026
- Current report29 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report08 Jun 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report28 Apr 2026
- Current report28 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report20 Mar 2026Material agreement · Creation of a direct financial obligation · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Mar 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report11 Mar 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report05 Mar 2026Amendments to articles or bylaws · Shareholder vote · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-09-30 · SEC / FICO · 07 Nov 2025
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / FICO · 29 Jul 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / FICO · 29 Jul 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.