olivLaw · US equity research
MSCI Inc. MSCI
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
MSCI Inc. provides indexes, analytics and sustainability and climate data for global investors, earning mostly recurring subscription revenue plus asset-based fees. Operating revenues in the third quarter of 2026 were $892.0 million, up 12.4%. The company remains dependent on the asset management industry, and BlackRock's share of revenues rose from 10.8% in 2025 to 11.8% in the first nine months of 2026.
At the close of 03 Nov 2026, MSCI Inc. (MSCI) stock was 639.78 USD (+0.40% on the day), with market capitalisation 45.7 bn USD, P/E 33.9 on diluted EPS of 18.89 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 1.24%, beta 0.66, 52-week range 511.84–643.83 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q3 2026): revenue of 892.0 m USD (+12.4% YoY), net income of 351.0 m USD (+7.9% YoY), diluted EPS 4.86 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 72.6
- overbought (≥ 70)
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 536.89 – 648.55
- in the upper half of the band · %B 0.92 · band width 18.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 569.89 / 573.85
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- 19.21 / 14.57
- MACD above signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | +19.4% | −2.0% | +21.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | +12.0% | −2.2% | +14.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | +10.1% | +4.3% | +5.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | +11.5% | +10.6% | +0.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | +10.1% | +10.5% | −0.4 pp | −5.1% |
| 3 years | +28.5% | +73.7% | −45.1 pp | +1.8% |
| 5 years | −3.3% | +61.7% | −65.0 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q3 2026 · 30 Sept 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 | Q3 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 743.5 m | 745.8 m | 772.7 m | 793.4 m | 822.6 m | 850.8 m | 867.0 m | 892.0 m |
| Cost of revenue | 131.6 m | 136.8 m | 137.7 m | 132.5 m | 143.4 m | 141.8 m | 149.9 m | 152.2 m |
| Research & development | 38.5 m | 47.6 m | 44.1 m | 44.8 m | 41.1 m | 49.6 m | 46.0 m | 47.6 m |
| Operating income | 405.2 m | 377.0 m | 425.3 m | 447.6 m | 463.7 m | 456.9 m | 487.5 m | 502.1 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 4.3 m | 4.7 m | 5.4 m ≈ | 5.8 m ≈ | 7.5 m | 5.9 m | 6.2 m ≈ | 6.5 m ≈ |
| Interest expense | 45.5 m | 46.5 m | 46.2 m | 53.6 m | 63.6 m | 69.1 m | 71.0 m | 74.8 m |
| Pre-tax income | 363.3 m | 331.1 m | 377.8 m | 396.5 m | 388.9 m | 389.2 m | 417.3 m | 427.9 m |
| Income tax | 57.8 m | 42.5 m | 74.1 m | 71.2 m | 104.2 m | -16.8 m | 75.3 m | 76.9 m |
| Net income | 305.5 m | 288.6 m | 303.7 m | 325.3 m | 284.7 m | 406.0 m | 342.0 m | 351.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 3.90 ≈ | 3.71 | 3.92 | 4.25 | 3.81 ≈ | 5.53 | 4.69 | 4.86 |
| Operating cash flow | 430.6 m | 301.7 m | 336.2 m ≈ | 449.4 m ≈ | 501.1 m | 306.8 m | 370.8 m ≈ | 436.1 m ≈ |
| Capex | 14.2 m | 11.6 m | 11.3 m ≈ | 4.0 m ≈ | 12.4 m | 2.8 m | 11.0 m ≈ | 13.4 m ≈ |
| Dividends paid | 125.1 m | 143.8 m | 139.7 m ≈ | 137.9 m ≈ | 135.1 m | 150.5 m | 149.5 m ≈ | 147.8 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 374.0 m | 213.1 m | 138.5 m ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 906.8 m | 414.8 m | 168.4 m ≈ | 552.6 m ≈ |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 30 percentile of its own 44-quarter history (min 26.4, median 38.5, max 73.7; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +12.5% | +8.6% | +8.8% | +20.5% | +10.0% | +12.5% | +12.9% | +9.7% |
| Net income | 507.9 m | 563.6 m | 601.8 m | 726.0 m | 870.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn |
| Net income YoY | +67.1% | +11.0% | +6.8% | +20.6% | +19.9% | +31.9% | −3.4% | +8.4% |
| Diluted EPS | 5.66 | 6.59 | 7.12 | 8.70 | 10.72 | 14.39 | 14.05 | 15.69 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | +71.0% | +16.4% | +8.0% | +22.2% | +23.2% | +34.2% | −2.4% | +11.7% |
| net % | 35.4% | 36.2% | 35.5% | 35.5% | 38.7% | 45.4% | 38.8% | 38.4% |
| Free cash flow | 582.5 m | 680.4 m | 789.3 m | 922.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.5 bn |
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 515.3 m USD
- Financial debt
- 6.2 bn USD
- Net debt
- 5.7 bn USD
- Equity
- -2.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 5.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- unavailable
- Current ratio
- 0.90x
- ROE
- unavailable
- ROA
- 21.6%
- FCF margin
- 49.4%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7 bn | 2.0 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.5 bn | 2.9 bn | 3.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 291.7 m | 358.7 m | 404.3 m | 446.6 m | 514.4 m | 550.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | 1.8 bn ≈ | 2.1 bn ≈ | 2.3 bn ≈ | 2.6 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026derived |
| Research & development | 101.1 m | 111.6 m | 107.2 m | 132.1 m | 158.7 m | 177.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 884.8 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 29.8 m | 28.9 m | 26.9 m | 21.0 m | 17.0 m | 23.4 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 914.6 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.4 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.7 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026derived |
| Interest expense | 156.3 m | 159.6 m | 171.6 m | 186.7 m | 185.5 m | 209.9 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Pre-tax income | 686.2 m | 858.1 m | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 84.4 m | 132.2 m | 173.3 m | 220.5 m | 247.0 m | 292.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | 601.8 m | 726.0 m | 870.6 m | 1.1 bn | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | 7.12 | 8.70 | 10.72 | 14.39 | 14.05 | 15.69 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 84.5 m | 83.5 m | 81.2 m | 79.8 m | 79.0 m | 76.6 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividend per share | 2.92 | 3.64 | 4.58 | 5.52 | 6.40 | 7.20 | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Revenue − Cost of revenue; Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 993.6 m | 461.7 m | 409.4 m | 515.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Receivables | 558.6 m | 664.5 m | 663.2 m | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 10 Feb 2023verified |
| Current assets | 1.9 bn | 2.1 bn | 1.7 bn | 1.4 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 80.4 m | 66.7 m | 53.9 m | 55.9 m | 70.9 m | 87.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 1.6 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 234.7 m | 593.3 m | 558.5 m | 956.2 m | 907.6 m | 832.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total assets | 4.2 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.5 bn | 5.4 bn | 5.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 14.3 m | 13.4 m | 15.0 m | 9.8 m | 14.5 m | 15.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | — | 0 | 8.7 m | 10.9 m | 0 | — | SEC (XBRL)· 07 Feb 2025verified |
| Long-term debt | 3.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 4.5 bn | 6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 1.0 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.3 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | 1.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.6 bn | 5.7 bn | 6.0 bn | 6.3 bn | 6.4 bn | 8.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
| Equity | -443.2 m † | -163.5 m † | -1.0 bn † | -739.8 m † | -940.0 m † | -2.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 21 Apr 2026verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 811.1 m | 936.1 m | 1.1 bn | 1.2 bn | 1.5 bn | 1.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 21.8 m | 13.5 m | 13.6 m | 22.8 m | 33.8 m | 39.3 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 789.3 m ≈ | 922.6 m ≈ | 1.1 bn ≈ | 1.2 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -241.8 m | -1.0 bn | -79.3 m | -819.4 m | -144.3 m | -130.1 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | -779.0 m | 229.5 m | -1.4 bn | -953.9 m | -1.4 bn | -1.4 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Dividends paid | 246.4 m | 302.4 m | 372.9 m | 441.0 m | 509.1 m | 556.5 m | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 778.5 m | 198.4 m | 1.4 bn | 504.2 m | 885.3 m | 2.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 06 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 57 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
03 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 45.7 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation18
- Returns89
- Quality93
- Balance sheet46
- Growth94
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 94.62 – 569.78 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)326.57 – 569.78 (Mid 419.23)WACC 8.8% · starting FCFF 1.8 bn USD · terminal value share of EV 75%The WACC × g sensitivity gives the method's bounds; these are not probabilities.Reverse DCF: starting growth implied by the price (fading linearly to terminal growth, everything else fixed): 29.2%
- Peers: EV/EBITDA234.83 – 363.32 (Mid 321.77)9 companies used · median multiple 15.2x · quartiles 12.0x – 16.8xBR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, GPN, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Peers: P/E260.33 – 524.73 (Mid 389.41)12 companies used · median multiple 20.6x · quartiles 13.8x – 27.8xACN, BR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, FISV, MA, MELI, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Dividend discount (DDM)94.62 – 127.24 (Mid 108.53)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 57/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Net margin · Quality | 40.3% | 86 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 113.8% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 11.7% | 98 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 13.5% | 90 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.3x | 42 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | 6.9x | 82 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 0.8x | 2 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 33.9x | 17 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 27.0x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 3.4% | 43 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 5.7% | 82 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | 37.0% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet46/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Growth94/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality93/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Returns89/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Valuation18/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
Memo
MSCI INC. (MSCI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-09-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 3.1 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 9.7%; net margin 40.3%; net debt/EBITDA 3.3x.
The estimated value range is 247.58–444.02 USD per share (median of 4 methods, agreement: high); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 355.59 USD, the price of 639.78 USD leaves a potential of -44.4% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -79.9% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 57/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- Net margin: 40.3%
- FCF conversion: 113.8%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 11.7%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 13.5%
- Interest coverage: 6.9x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 5.7%
- Payout ratio (FCF): 37.0%
What contradicts it
- Current ratio: 0.8x
- P/E (TTM): 33.9x
- EV/EBITDA: 27.0x
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): ROIC.
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 5.5 bn and 354.8 bn (within 8× of the company's); 85 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc | 136.0 bn | 14.6 | 38.4% | 17.3% | +18.3% | −24% / +18% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 84.3 bn | 45.2 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −20% / +3% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 52.1 bn | 25.8 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +43% / +189% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 48.4 bn | 11.1 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −7% / +1% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 45.7 bn | 33.9 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +10% / +29% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 31.1 bn | 11.2 | 10.7% | 13.4% | +3.6% | −5% / −55% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 26.7 bn | 24.7 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +37% / +69% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.9 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +29% / −16% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 20.8 bn | 20.3 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −19% / −5% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 20.1 bn | 6.0 | 22.3% | 27.6% | +5.4% | −41% / −34% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.3 bn | 39.1 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −5% / +46% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.6 bn | 20.9 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −60% / −33% |
| VVisa Inc. | — | — | 60.3% | 51.7% | +11.3% | +26% / +64% |
| ACNAccenture plc | — | 18.8 | 26.7% | 11.3% | +6.5% | +2% / −24% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | — | 33.8 | 231.4% | 46.7% | +16.4% | +18% / +56% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MSCI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 415.42 Total return -34% · Per year -34% | 732.06 Total return 16% · Per year 16% | 1,099.45 Total return 74% · Per year 74% |
| 3 years | 463.70 Total return -24% · Per year -9% | 913.52 Total return 48% · Per year 14% | 1,497.52 Total return 140% · Per year 34% |
| 5 years | 517.60 Total return -13% · Per year -3% | 1,139.94 Total return 87% · Per year 13% | 2,039.73 Total return 231% · Per year 27% |
- Exit P/E± 228.38
- Net margin± 159.87
- Annual revenue growth± 122.75
- Annual dilution± 13.43
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
In brief
MSCI Inc. provides indexes, analytics and sustainability and climate data for global investors, earning mostly recurring subscription revenue plus asset-based fees. Operating revenues in the third quarter of 2026 were $892.0 million, up 12.4% 3. The company remains dependent on the asset management industry, and BlackRock's share of revenues rose from 10.8% in 2025 to 11.8% in the first nine months of 2026 12.
SWOT
Strengths
Weaknesses
- Dependence on a small number of large clients and on one client in particular could expose revenue to changes in its strategy 12.
- Reliance on third-party data and cloud providers, some of which are also competitors, could affect product continuity 1.
- Higher debt levels increased interest costs, which weighed on results in the third quarter of 2026 3.
Opportunities
- Demand for customization, custom indexes and private asset products could open new revenue sources 1.
- Expansion into new client types such as hedge funds, wealth managers and banks is a stated goal 1.
- Using artificial intelligence could speed up product development and lower the cost of processing data 1.
Threats
Risks
- Dependence on third-party suppliershigh
The company relies on third-party data, applications and distribution, and the refusal or failure of a key supplier could impair its services 1.
- Client concentrationhigh
One client accounts for a significant share of revenue, and changes in its strategy could have visible effects on results 12.
- Product errors and reputationmedium
Undetected errors in indexes, data or ratings could lead to costs, claims and loss of client confidence 1.
- Artificial intelligence risksmedium
Use of artificial intelligence may create reputational or legal exposure if outputs are wrong or if regulation changes 1.
- Debt and financing costslow
Higher debt increased interest expense, which could reduce financial flexibility if borrowing costs stay elevated 13.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If growth in indexed investing continues, asset-based fee revenue could keep rising, as seen in the third quarter of 2026 3.
- The recurring subscription model and high retention offer a predictable revenue base that could support investment and capital returns 13.
- If expansion into private assets and customization takes hold, the company could diversify its revenue sources 13.
What would break the thesis
- If fee pressure in the asset management industry intensifies, clients could negotiate lower fees or reduce their use of the company's products 2.
- Rising debt and interest expense could reduce net income and financial flexibility if financing costs keep increasing 3.
- If regulation or political debate limits the use of sustainability criteria, the related segment could slow down 2.
What to watch
- Trend in asset-based fee revenue and Index Run RateQ4 2026
- Development of the adjusted EBITDA margin in the Analytics segmentQ1 2027
- Effect of interest costs on net income2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
The business
Operations are grouped into three reportable segments, Index, Analytics and Sustainability and Climate, while the private assets activities (Real Assets and Private Capital Solutions) are presented separately as All Other – Private Assets 12. The Index segment accounted for 57.0% of revenues in fiscal 2025, and asset-based fees made up 43.1% of that segment's revenues 1.
Market context
MSCI operates in the global investment industry, where clients need high-quality data, models and customized tools aligned with their objectives 1. Fee pressure and consolidation in asset management, a key client segment, may lead to contract cuts or terminations, but could also increase demand for more sophisticated tools 2.
Trends
- Indexing and ETFstailwind
Growth in indexed investing through ETFs and derivatives directly supports MSCI's asset-based fee revenue 1. If flows into these products slowed, variable fees could also decline 1.
- Fee pressure on clientsmixed
Lower fees and consolidation in the asset management industry can reduce client data budgets and lead to renegotiations or terminations 2. At the same time, managers may extend their use of MSCI tools to more strategies 2.
- Sustainability and climate demandmixed
Demand for sustainability and climate tools depends on reporting requirements in Europe and on political debate in the United States, where some scrutiny of these considerations has emerged 2. Over the long term, integrating climate factors into investing could support adoption, but near-term uncertainty may slow growth 2.
- Artificial intelligencemixed
Using AI for data collection, analytics and new products could strengthen the company's competitive position, but it also brings risks of errors, reputational harm and regulatory scrutiny 1. The company says it works with global technology partners to accelerate these capabilities 1.
Competitive position
The analyzed sources do not explicitly list MSCI's competitors, but they state that some data suppliers and distributors are also competitors and that some may sign exclusive contracts with stock exchanges 1. Providers of market data and indexes can therefore influence MSCI's costs and access to content 1.
The company acknowledges that data suppliers who are also competitors could change supply terms, and that exclusive contracts between competitors and exchanges could limit access to certain data 1. Index reputation and credibility remain an advantage that controversies could weaken 1.
- Market data providers and exchanges
Suppliers that may also compete and that could change supply terms or sign exclusive contracts, according to the sources.
- Other index and classification providers
The sources refer generally to competition in indexes and analytical tools without naming specific firms.
- Third-party data distributors
Some distributors of MSCI data are also competitors, which may affect distribution costs and terms.
- Cloud and technology companies
The company relies on major cloud and infrastructure providers, which may also become partners or competitors in artificial intelligence.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Barito Renewables Denies Inflating Volume, Price of SharesBloomberg Markets · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Franklin Templeton CEO Hopes Indonesia Changes on MSCI WarningBloomberg Markets · 03 Nov 2026 · EN
- Greek Stocks to Suffer Outflows on MSCI Upgrade, JPMorgan SaysBloomberg Markets · 02 Nov 2026 · EN
- Bursă. Radu Puiu, XTB: Românii care investesc pe pieţele externe au devenit mai disciplinaţi. Încep cu ETF-uri pe S&P 500 sau MSCI World şi apoi trec la acţiuni individuale. „SUA este trigger-ul cel mai important şi, dacă acolo ar apărea anumite probleme, ulterior acestea s-ar vărsa în cascadă către Europa şi după aceea către estul Europei.“Ziarul Financiar · 02 Nov 2026 · RO
- Indonesia’s MSCI Crisis Driven By Wash Trades and 5,000% RalliesBloomberg Markets · 01 Nov 2026 · EN
- Prabowo’s Own Brother Sounds Alarm Over Indonesian Stock MarketBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Indonesia’s Wealth Fund CIO Owns Stake in Sanctioned BrokerageBloomberg Markets · 29 Oct 2026 · EN
- Indonesia faces 'triple selling' pressure amid MSCI downgrade concernsNikkei Asia · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- 'Triple selling' pressure mounts amid MSCI downgrade concernsNikkei Asia · 28 Oct 2026 · EN
- Acțiunile Jio cresc cu 21% după IPO, devenind a doua cea mai valoroasă companie din India - Traders UnionSurge — Google News · 28 Oct 2026 · RO
- Indonesia’s MSCI Downgrade Threat – What It Means for Investors: PodcastBloomberg Markets · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Indonesia-Singapore spats escalate over haze, energy, MSCINikkei Asia · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Acțiunile asiatice au crescut pe fondul așteptărilor privind IPO-ul Anthropic. - Vietnam.vnSurge — Google News · 27 Oct 2026 · RO
- Indonesia 10-Year Yield at Four-Year High on MSCI Risk, OilBloomberg Markets · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Indonesia-Singapore spats escalate over haze, MSCINikkei Asia · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Indonesia Announces New Measures to Improve Stock Market TransparencyThe Diplomat (Asia geopolitics) · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- MSCI Fallout Widens With Indonesian Corporate Bond Sale ShelvedBloomberg Markets · 27 Oct 2026 · EN
- Indonesia strengthens measures against stock manipulation after market rout triggered by MSCICNA (Channel NewsAsia) · 26 Oct 2026 · EN
- Q&A: Indonesia’s Stock Market SelloffBloomberg Markets · 23 Oct 2026 · EN
- MSCI Inc $MSCI Stake Trimmed by Nisa Investment Advisors LLCSurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Oct 2026 · RO
SEC filings
- Quarterly report20 Oct 2026
- Current report20 Oct 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report07 Aug 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Quarterly report21 Jul 2026
- Current report21 Jul 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report23 Apr 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report21 Apr 2026
- Current report21 Apr 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report31 Mar 2026Departure or appointment of officers
- Proxy statement11 Mar 2026
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MSCI Inc. · 06 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-09-30 · SEC / MSCI Inc. · 20 Oct 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / MSCI Inc. · 20 Oct 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.