olivLaw · US equity research
MercadoLibre, Inc. MELI
Services-Business Services, NEC · SIC 7389 · Vertical: Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389)
MercadoLibre is the leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, combining its Marketplace, Mercado Pago, Mercado Envios logistics and Mercado Ads advertising. In the second quarter of 2026 net revenues and financial income grew 50% year on year to 10,169 million USD, while operating margin stood at 6.7%, as the company invests heavily in user engagement.
The AI analysis may be outdated: new filings came after its sources (see the «AI analysis» section).
At the close of 04 Nov 2026, MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) stock was 1,739.88 USD (+4.68% on the day), with market capitalisation 88.2 bn USD, P/E 47.3 on diluted EPS of 36.77 USD over the last 12 months, dividend yield 0.03%, beta 0.92, 52-week range 1,546.81–2,301.88 USD. Latest reported quarter (Q2 2026): revenue of 10.2 bn USD (+49.8% YoY), net income of 466.0 m USD (−10.9% YoY), diluted EPS 9.19 USD.
Data as of · AI analysis dated · Source: SEC filings and closing prices, computed by olivLaw.
Price history
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Technical reading
- RSI (14)
- 47.1
- neutral
- Bollinger (20, 2)
- 1,596.28 – 1,967.73
- in the lower half of the band · %B 0.39 · band width 20.8%
- SMA 50 / 200
- 1,824.86 / 1,807.68
- mixed trend
- MACD (12, 26, 9)
- -42.48 / -33.14
- MACD below signal
Indicators describe past prices; on their own they do not predict direction. On our history the RSI ≤ 40 filter added no return (see the signals methodology).
Performance
| Company | S&P 500 | vs S&P 500 | Vertical median | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | −6.5% | −1.1% | −5.4 pp | — |
| 3 months | −9.5% | −0.5% | −9.1 pp | — |
| 6 months | −5.5% | +4.4% | −9.9 pp | — |
| Year to date | −13.6% | +12.3% | −25.9 pp | — |
| 1 year | −24.5% | +13.5% | −38.1 pp | +3.3% |
| 3 years | +25.4% | +76.4% | −51.0 pp | +14.2% |
| 5 years | +6.8% | +63.7% | −56.9 pp | — |
Price returns, dividends excluded.
Quarterly results
Latest quarter: Q2 2026 · 30 Jun 2026
Quarterly margins
Quarterly statements · USD
| Fiscal year | Q3 '24 | Q4 '24 | Q1 '25 | Q2 '25 | Q3 '25 | Q4 '25 | Q1 '26 | Q2 '26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.3 bn | 6.1 bn | 5.9 bn | 6.8 bn | 7.4 bn | 8.8 bn | 8.8 bn | 10.2 bn |
| Cost of revenue | 2.9 bn | 3.3 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.7 bn | 4.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 5.0 bn | 6.0 bn |
| Gross profit | 2.4 bn | 2.7 bn | 2.8 bn | 3.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 3.8 bn | 3.9 bn | 4.2 bn |
| Research & development | 504.0 m | 512.0 m | 551.0 m | 567.0 m | 567.0 m | 584.0 m | 699.0 m | 729.0 m |
| Operating income | 557.0 m | 820.0 m | 763.0 m | 825.0 m | 724.0 m | 889.0 m | 611.0 m | 683.0 m |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 157.0 m ≈ | 152.0 m | 172.0 m | 199.0 m ≈ | 209.0 m ≈ | 238.0 m | 246.0 m | 292.0 m ≈ |
| Pre-tax income | 520.0 m | 763.0 m | 706.0 m | 716.0 m | 636.0 m | 784.0 m | 579.0 m | 606.0 m |
| Income tax | 123.0 m | 124.0 m | 212.0 m | 193.0 m | 215.0 m | 225.0 m | 162.0 m | 140.0 m |
| Net income | 397.0 m | 639.0 m | 494.0 m | 523.0 m | 421.0 m | 559.0 m | 417.0 m | 466.0 m |
| Diluted EPS | 7.83 | 12.60 ≈ | 9.74 | 10.31 | 8.32 | 11.03 ≈ | 8.23 | 9.19 |
| Operating cash flow | 1.6 bn ≈ | 2.9 bn | 1.0 bn | 2.9 bn ≈ | 3.0 bn ≈ | 5.2 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.7 bn ≈ |
| Capex | 222.0 m ≈ | 309.0 m | 272.0 m | 287.0 m ≈ | 357.0 m ≈ | 427.0 m | 271.0 m | 441.0 m ≈ |
| Share repurchases | 0 ≈ | 0 | — | — | 1.0 m ≈ | 0 | — | — |
≈ derived quarter (cumulative difference / share-days average)
E/P over time
E/P = trailing-12-month diluted EPS / price at quarter end. E/P is the inverse of P/E and stays defined when earnings are negative.
Today's P/E sits at the 13 percentile of its own 30-quarter history (min 38.9, median 66.9, max 3,823.6; quarters with earnings only).
Fiscal years
| Fiscal year | 2018 | 2019 | ⚠ 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn | 4.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 10.8 bn | 15.1 bn | 20.8 bn | 28.9 bn |
| Revenue YoY | +18.3% | +59.5% | — | +77.9% | +52.5% | +40.1% | +37.5% | +39.1% |
| Net income | -36.6 m | -172.0 m | -1.0 m | 83.0 m | 482.0 m | 987.0 m | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn |
| Net income YoY | −365.5% | unavailable | — | unavailable | +480.7% | +104.8% | +93.6% | +4.5% |
| Diluted EPS | -0.82 | -3.71 | -0.08 | 1.67 | 9.53 | 19.46 | 37.69 | 39.40 |
| Diluted EPS YoY | −364.5% | unavailable | — | unavailable | +470.7% | +104.2% | +93.7% | +4.5% |
| net % | -2.5% | -7.5% | -0.0% | 1.2% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% |
| Free cash flow | 137.8 m | 314.3 m | 935.0 m | 392.0 m | 2.5 bn | 4.6 bn | 7.1 bn | 10.8 bn |
The series breaks before 2020: earlier years come from the original reports of the issuer of that time, later years from a subsequent filing that restated the perimeter (a separation, discontinued operations). The year-on-year change across the break is not shown.
Reported results vs expectations
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Balance sheet & financial health
Fiscal year 2025 · 31 Dec 2025
- Cash
- 3.7 bn USD
- Financial debt
- 13.8 bn USD
- Net debt
- 10.1 bn USD
- Equity
- 6.7 bn USD
- Total assets
- 42.7 bn USD
- Debt / equity
- 2.05x
- Current ratio
- 1.17x
- ROE
- 36.0%
- ROA
- 5.9%
- FCF margin
- 37.3%
Financial statements (source on every figure)
Revenue and net income (USD)
Margins
Income statement · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.0 bn | 7.1 bn | 10.8 bn | 15.1 bn | 20.8 bn | 28.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Cost of revenue | 2.3 bn | 4.1 bn | 5.6 bn | 7.5 bn | 11.2 bn | 16.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Gross profit | 1.7 bn | 3.0 bn | 5.2 bn | 7.6 bn | 9.6 bn | 12.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Research & development | 353.0 m | 590.0 m | 1.1 bn | 1.8 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Operating income | 128.0 m | 441.0 m | 1.1 bn | 2.2 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Depreciation & amortisation | 105.0 m | 204.0 m | 403.0 m | 524.0 m | 617.0 m | 818.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| EBITDA | 233.0 m ≈ | 645.0 m ≈ | 1.5 bn ≈ | 2.7 bn ≈ | 3.2 bn ≈ | 4.0 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Pre-tax income | 81.0 m | 241.0 m | 780.0 m | 1.6 bn | 2.4 bn | 2.8 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Income tax | 82.0 m | 149.0 m | 298.0 m | 569.0 m | 521.0 m | 845.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Net income | -1.0 m | 83.0 m | 482.0 m | 987.0 m | 1.9 bn | 2.0 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Diluted EPS | -0.08 | 1.67 | 9.53 | 19.46 | 37.69 | 39.40 | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Weighted average diluted shares | 49.7 m | 49.8 m | 51.3 m | 51.0 m | 50.7 m | 50.7 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating income + Depreciation & amortisation.
Balance sheet · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash | 1.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 1.9 bn | 2.6 bn | 2.6 bn | 3.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Receivables | 49.7 m | 98.0 m | 130.0 m | 156.0 m | 255.0 m | 369.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Inventories | 118.1 m | 253.0 m | 152.0 m | 238.0 m | 296.0 m | 570.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current assets | 5.3 bn | 8.2 bn | 11.0 bn | 14.3 bn | 20.1 bn | 33.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Property, plant & equipment, net | 391.7 m | 807.0 m | 993.0 m | 1.3 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Goodwill | 85.0 m | 148.0 m | 153.0 m | 163.0 m | 149.0 m | 163.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Intangibles (excl. goodwill) | 14.2 m | 45.0 m | 25.0 m | 11.0 m | 12.0 m | 33.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total assets | 6.5 bn | 10.1 bn | 13.7 bn | 17.6 bn | 25.2 bn | 42.7 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Accounts payable | 767.3 m | 1.0 bn | 1.4 bn | 2.1 bn | 3.2 bn | 4.5 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Short-term debt | 548.4 m | 1.3 bn | 2.1 bn | 2.3 bn | 2.8 bn | 4.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Long-term debt | — | 3.5 bn | 4.8 bn | 4.5 bn | 5.7 bn | 9.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Current liabilities | 3.6 bn | 5.8 bn | 8.6 bn | 11.3 bn | 16.6 bn | 28.6 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Total liabilities | 4.9 bn | 8.6 bn | 11.9 bn | 14.5 bn | 20.8 bn | 35.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Equity | 1.7 bn † | 1.5 bn † | 1.8 bn † | 3.1 bn † | 4.4 bn † | 6.7 bn † | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 49.9 m | — | — | — | — | — | SEC (XBRL)· 23 Dec 2020verified |
† equity attributable to the parent's shareholders: in these years the issuer no longer reports the total including non-controlling interests.
Cash flow · USD
| Line | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Source (latest year) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating cash flow | 1.2 bn | 965.0 m | 2.9 bn | 5.1 bn | 7.9 bn | 12.1 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Capex | 247.0 m | 573.0 m | 454.0 m | 509.0 m | 860.0 m | 1.3 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Free cash flow | 935.0 m ≈ | 392.0 m ≈ | 2.5 bn ≈ | 4.6 bn ≈ | 7.1 bn ≈ | 10.8 bn ≈ | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026derived |
| Investing cash flow | -252.0 m | -1.6 bn | -3.9 bn | -3.5 bn | -8.3 bn | -6.2 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Financing cash flow | 242.0 m | 1.9 bn | 916.0 m | -267.0 m | 2.0 bn | 2.9 bn | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
| Share repurchases | 54.0 m | 486.0 m | 148.0 m | 356.0 m | 1.0 m | 1.0 m | SEC (XBRL)· 25 Feb 2026verified |
≈ computed by olivLaw from the reported lines of the same year: Operating cash flow − Capex.
Computed indicators
Growth
Profitability
Returns
Balance sheet
Liquidity
Cash
Efficiency
Market and valuation
1 indicators that do not apply to the sector.
Valuation
olivLaw classification
Score: 47 / 100
A scoring methodology on indicators and valuation, not investment advice.
(margin_of_safety <= -0.25 & agreement in ['high', 'medium'])
Closing price
04 Nov 2026Source: olivLaw, closing series
Market cap: 88.2 bn USD
Key indicators
Coverage and freshness
Score by group
- Valuation32
- Balance sheet31
- Quality50
- Growth100
- Returns0
Estimated value range
The combined range = the median of the valid methods' low, central and high values; it is not a probability interval and does not cover every result. Envelope of all methods: 7.88 – 1,302.66 USD.
Valuation assumptions are editorial choices, not measured; beta is not measured.
Method ranges (USD per share)
— — Mid · ▏ Price
Valuation methods
- DCF (discounted cash flow)unavailable · the reported interest expense is far older than the latest period (the filer changed its XBRL tag): a stale figure is not used
- Peers: EV/EBITDA645.60 – 1,051.21 (Mid 923.97)9 companies used · median multiple 15.5x · quartiles 11.9x – 17.2xBR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, GPN, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Peers: P/E730.56 – 1,302.66 (Mid 935.49)11 companies used · median multiple 25.4x · quartiles 19.9x – 35.4xACN, BR, CPAY, EBAY, FICO, FIS, MA, MSCI, PYPL, RBA, UBER
- Dividend discount (DDM)7.88 – 10.60 (Mid 9.04)
Classification (SIC) comparables group by industry code, not by economic activity; the direct group is an editorial selection by activity. Members' multiples are on their own trailing twelve months, at their own latest close.
Assumptions (illustrative, editorial)
- Risk-free rate
- 4.3%
- Equity risk premium
- 5.0%
- Beta (default)
- 1.00
- Cost of equity
- 9.3%
- Terminal growth
- 2.5%
Factor scorecard
Unattractive profile · Score 47/100
| Factor | Value | Score | Weight used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROIC · Quality | 11.8% | 42 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Net margin · Quality | 5.3% | 14 (vs peers) | 7% |
| FCF conversion · Quality | 666.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Revenue CAGR 3Y · Growth | 38.9% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| EPS CAGR 3Y · Growth | 60.5% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Net debt / EBITDA · Balance sheet | 3.5x | 33 (vs peers) | 12% |
| Interest coverage · Balance sheet | unavailable | unavailable | — |
| Current ratio · Balance sheet | 1.1x | 27 (on a fixed band) | 5% |
| P/E (TTM) · Valuation | 47.3x | 0 (vs peers) | 12% |
| EV/EBITDA · Valuation | 26.1x | 10 (vs peers) | 12% |
| FCF yield · Valuation | 14.1% | 100 (on a fixed band) | 9% |
| Shareholder yield (distributions) · Returns | 0.0% | 0 (on a fixed band) | 7% |
| Payout ratio (FCF) · Returns | unavailable | unavailable | — |
Factors without a value were dropped; the remaining weights were renormalised.
Score groups
- Balance sheet31/100 · 2/3 factors with a value
- Growth100/100 · 2/2 factors with a value
- Quality50/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
- Returns· partial0/100 · 1/2 factors with a value
- Valuation32/100 · 3/3 factors with a value
A «partial» group is computed from under half of its weight or from one factor: it is not a full assessment of the group.
Memo
MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI). Latest full fiscal year: 2025; data up to 2026-06-30.
Figures computed from the financial statements: revenue 28.9 bn USD in 2025; YoY growth 39.1%; net margin 5.3%; ROE 27.5%; net debt/EBITDA 3.5x.
The estimated value range is 645.60–1,051.21 USD per share (median of 3 methods, agreement: medium); assumptions are illustrative. Against the central value of 923.97 USD, the price of 1,739.88 USD leaves a potential of -46.9% (value / price − 1) and a margin of safety of -88.3% (1 − price / value). The range is the median of the methods' low, central and high values, not a probability interval.
olivLaw score 47/100, methodological classification: unattractive profile (score, margin of safety and method agreement together; not a judgement of the right price). Groups assessed only in part: returns. Not investment advice.
Text generated deterministically from the figures shown; no language model. Not investment advice.
What supports the thesis
- FCF conversion: 666.1%
- Revenue CAGR 3Y: 38.9%
- EPS CAGR 3Y: 60.5%
- FCF yield: 14.1%
What contradicts it
- Net margin: 5.3%
- Current ratio: 1.1x
- P/E (TTM): 47.3x
- EV/EBITDA: 26.1x
- Shareholder yield (distributions): 0.0%
- The price is above the estimated value range
Not assessed (insufficient data or a ratio without meaning): Interest coverage, Payout ratio (FCF).
Versus the vertical median
Services-Business Services, NEC (SIC 7389) · same industry (4-digit SIC) · compared with 14 companies
Only companies with a capitalisation between 11.6 bn and 740.2 bn (within 8× of the company's); 85 of the vertical were left out.
Multiples and returns vs the median
Price rebased to 100 (monthly, 5 years)
Companies in the vertical
| Market cap | P/E | ROE | Net margin | Revenue YoY | 1A / 3A | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBERUber Technologies, Inc. | 142.7 bn | 41.3 | 12.4% | 6.1% | +18.3% | −20% / +24% |
| MELIMercadoLibre, Inc. | 88.2 bn | 47.3 | 27.5% | 5.3% | +39.1% | −25% / +25% |
| EBAYeBay Inc. | 54.9 bn | 27.2 | 46.6% | 16.9% | +7.9% | +51% / +205% |
| PYPLPayPal Holdings, Inc. | 50.0 bn | 11.5 | 23.8% | 13.8% | +4.3% | −4% / +4% |
| MSCIMsci Inc. | 48.2 bn | 35.7 | — | 40.3% | +9.7% | +20% / +29% |
| FISVFiserv, Inc. | 33.0 bn | — | -17.0% | -18.9% | +3.6% | +1% / −52% |
| CPAYCorpay, Inc | 27.5 bn | 25.4 | 30.5% | 22.7% | +13.9% | +42% / +74% |
| GPNGlobal Payments Inc. | 25.4 bn | — | -4.1% | -9.1% | −0.4% | +27% / −17% |
| BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. | 21.4 bn | 20.9 | 40.2% | 13.9% | +8.5% | −17% / −2% |
| RBARB Global, Inc | 17.6 bn | 39.9 | 8.8% | 10.0% | +7.2% | −3% / +49% |
| FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | 15.3 bn | 4.4 | 23.0% | 26.8% | +5.4% | −55% / −49% |
| FICOFair Isaac Corp | 15.1 bn | 20.3 | — | 34.1% | +15.9% | −61% / −36% |
| VVisa Inc. | — | — | 60.3% | 51.7% | +11.3% | +31% / +70% |
| ACNAccenture plc | — | 19.5 | 26.7% | 11.3% | +6.5% | +6% / −21% |
| MAMastercard Incorporated | — | 35.2 | 231.4% | 46.7% | +16.4% | +22% / +63% |
1- and 3-year price returns: for MELI from daily closes (the same as the performance table), for the other companies from month-end closes.
olivLaw engine forecast
The world engine ran after the company's latest material disclosure. Probabilities are of TOUCHING a level within the horizon (not closing there) and sit next to the random walk (p_rw), the no-information benchmark.
The engine has no published run for this company yet.
Valuation scenarios (editable assumptions)
Illustrative scenarios
Illustrative: not forecasts and without probabilities. Each case is one coherent set of assumptions, computed on today's figures.
Estimated price (USD)
| Estimated price | Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 years | 1,136.38 Total return -35% · Per year -35% | 1,999.86 Total return 15% · Per year 15% | 2,999.79 Total return 72% · Per year 72% |
| 3 years | 1,347.93 Total return -23% · Per year -8% | 2,644.82 Total return 52% · Per year 15% | 4,319.70 Total return 148% · Per year 35% |
| 5 years | 1,598.86 Total return -8% · Per year -2% | 3,497.77 Total return 101% · Per year 15% | 6,220.37 Total return 258% · Per year 29% |
- Exit P/E± 661.20
- Net margin± 462.84
- Annual revenue growth± 345.19
- Annual dilution± 38.89
AI analysis
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
In brief
MercadoLibre is the leading online commerce and fintech ecosystem in Latin America, combining its Marketplace, Mercado Pago, Mercado Envios logistics and Mercado Ads advertising. In the second quarter of 2026 net revenues and financial income grew 50% year on year to 10,169 million USD 3, while operating margin stood at 6.7% 3, as the company invests heavily in user engagement.
SWOT
Strengths
- Leading regional position in online commerce and fintech, with an integrated ecosystem linking shopping, payments, logistics and advertising 1.
- Ecosystemic users generate far more value than single-service users, supporting the case for a structural advantage that is hard to replicate 3.
- Proprietary credit scoring models built on marketplace data allow lending decisions different from those of traditional banks 1.
Weaknesses
- Operating margin declined year on year in the second quarter of 2026 as investments in pricing and delivery weighed on profitability 3.
- The company relies heavily on Brazil, which increases exposure to a single economic and regulatory environment 1.
- The logistics chain depends on third-party carriers and partner networks, which may limit control over service quality 1.
Opportunities
- Low e-commerce penetration in the region could support long-term growth if digital adoption continues 1.
- Advertising and financial services could grow as a share of revenue as the user base and data expand 3.
- Expansion into new categories, such as pharmacy in Mexico, could open new sources of volume 3.
Threats
- Competition from low-price Asian platforms could pressure margins and marketing costs 1.
- Economic and currency instability in the region could weigh on consumption and on the dollar value of revenues 1.
- Regulatory changes in fintech and e-commerce, especially on credit and crypto-assets, could raise compliance costs 1.
Risks
- Intense competitionhigh
Barriers to entry are low and new players can launch similar platforms quickly, which could reduce market share 1.
- Credit riskhigh
Lending to merchants and consumers exposes the company to non-payment, especially in a difficult economic environment 1.
- Currency and inflation exposuremedium
Local currencies are subject to depreciation and exchange controls, which can affect results reported in dollars 1.
- Fraud and securitymedium
Fraudulent user activity or cyberattacks could affect operating results and the company's reputation 1.
- Crypto-related riskslow
The cryptocurrency feature and the Meli Dólar stablecoin are exposed to volatile prices and risks specific to digital assets 1.
Investment thesis
What would need to be true (bull case)
- If engagement and the share of ecosystemic users keep rising, margins could later benefit from the multiplier effect of the ecosystem 3.
- The leading position in GMV and fintech users across several countries could support durable growth in a region with low e-commerce penetration 1.
- Advertising, which has passed a 10% share of the regional digital advertising market, could add revenue at higher margins 3.
What would break the thesis
- If investments in pricing and delivery do not convert into profitability, operating margin could remain under pressure for longer 3.
- Competition from Asian players and incumbent banks could reduce market share and pricing power 1.
- Exposure to Brazil and to local currencies could amplify the effects of an economic slowdown or currency devaluation 1.
What to watch
- Trend in operating margin and the effect of pricing and delivery investmentsQ3 2026
- Pace of growth in ecosystemic users and MELI+ subscriptionsQ3 2026
- Quality of the credit portfolio and the level of cost of risknext 10-K
- Growth trajectory in Argentina and Mexico after tax changes2027
Products, market & competition
AI-generatedAI-generated analysis (Claude) from cited public sources; it may contain errors. Not investment advice. As of 27 Oct 2026 · Model: claude-haiku-5-5.
Possibly outdated: the newest document it read is from 06 Aug 2026; since then the company filed 8-K (04 Nov 2026 · results).
The business
The company runs an integrated ecosystem made up of the Mercado Libre Marketplace, where third-party sellers generate most GMV, Mercado Pago for payments and day-to-day financial services, Mercado Envios for logistics and Mercado Ads for advertising, plus classifieds for vehicles and property 1. The e-commerce platform is present in 18 countries and Mercado Pago in 8 1, making MercadoLibre the regional GMV leader 1. Its fintech products include digital accounts, cards, loans, insurance, savings and investments, and in Brazil, Mexico and Chile a cryptocurrency feature 1.
The company has two revenue streams: Commerce, made up of services (marketplace fees, shipping, advertising, subscriptions) and first-party product sales, and Fintech, made up of financial services income, credit revenues and sales of point-of-sale devices 1. Its strategy targets new categories, greater use of Mercado Envios and Mercado Ads, the MELI+ loyalty program and better monetization of transactions 1.
Segments
Brazil
Brazil accounted for 52.6% of consolidated net revenues and financial income in 2025 1, the company's largest market and the driver of recent growth according to the quarterly letter 3.
Market context
The company operates in a regional market of more than 650 million people, where e-commerce penetration of total retail remains well below levels in the United States, the United Kingdom and China 1. Potential growth is significant, but the market is highly competitive and barriers to entry are low 1.
Fintech markets in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Chile are shaped by incumbent banks and digital payment providers, and cash remains widely used across the region 1. For MercadoLibre this structure could support adoption of digital services if internet and payment infrastructure keep improving 1.
Trends
- Competitive pressure from Asiaheadwind
In 2025 new Asian platforms gained significant share through low prices and direct supply chains 1. This pressure could affect the company's pricing and marketing spending.
- Investment in pricing and deliverymixed
The company extended free shipping in Brazil and introduced discounts for buyers and sellers, which temporarily reduced operating margin 3. The long-term effect depends on how well these investments convert into engagement and volume.
Competitive position
Latin American e-commerce is highly competitive, with rivals including traditional retailers, online commerce sites, social media platforms, search engines, logistics providers and new international entrants 1. Larger, better-funded competitors can compete through aggressive pricing and technology investment 1.
In fintech, MercadoLibre competes with banks and financial institutions, fintech firms, card providers and digital wallets, as well as cash-based solutions 1. Established banks could quickly launch online payments, which could narrow the company's current advantage 1.
- International e-commerce platforms from Asia
New Asian platforms gained market share in Latin America through low prices and direct-from-manufacturer supply chains 1.
- Traditional and omnichannel retailers
Brick-and-mortar and omnichannel retailers compete for the same buyers and sellers 1.
- Banks and financial institutions
Traditional banks offer online payments and credit and could develop similar services quickly 1.
- Digital payment and wallet providers
Electronic payment providers, digital wallets and QR-based solutions compete with Mercado Pago 1.
Links, dependencies and risks
Who the company is tied to, from its own SEC filings (customers, suppliers, production, partners, competitors, countries, regulation), from the 5 %+ holders' statements (13D/13G) and from what other companies say about it. Click a node for its evidence; on a listed company the graph moves to it.
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News & filings
In the press
- Talleres - Defensa y Justicia Echipa de start: Torneo Mercado Libre Fotbal - EurosportSurge — Google News · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- Rosario Central - Huracán Echipa de start: Torneo Mercado Libre Fotbal - EurosportSurge — Google News · 22 Oct 2026 · RO
- De un garaje al éxito regional : Marcos Galperin reveló cómo nació la idea de Mercado LibreSurge — GDELT DOC · 23 Sept 2026 · RO
- Is MercadoLibre Stock As Cheap As Its Cash Says?Yahoo Finance — News · 21 Sept 2026 · EN
- MercadoLibre (MELI) Priced $1 Billion of 5.85% Notes. Can Growth Cover the Funding Cost?Yahoo Finance — News · 16 Sept 2026 · EN
- Chewy vs. MercadoLibre: Which E-Commerce Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?Yahoo Finance — News · 12 Sept 2026 · EN
- Not Amazon, Not Shopify. No Other Company Has Done What MercadoLibre Just DidYahoo Finance — News · 10 Sept 2026 · EN
- MercadoLibre Is Building the Infrastructure Latin America's Economy Will Run on for Decades. Here's Why That Makes It a Forever Hold.Yahoo Finance — News · 04 Sept 2026 · EN
- Netflix, MercadoLibre, and Tesla Are All Underperforming the S&P 500. Here's the 1 Stock I'd Buy in September.Yahoo Finance — News · 02 Sept 2026 · EN
- Better International E-Commerce Stock: MercadoLibre vs. Sea LimitedYahoo Finance — News · 30 Aug 2026 · EN
- Could This Hot Growth Stock Be the Next MercadoLibre? Why It Looks Like a Screaming BuyYahoo Finance — News · 29 Aug 2026 · EN
- Assessing Mercado Libre’s (MELI) Strategic Reinvestment: A Path to GrowthYahoo Finance — News · 28 Aug 2026 · EN
- MercadoLibre Beats Estimates as Quarterly Sales Top $10 BillionBloomberg Markets · 05 Aug 2026 · EN
The latest news item in our archive is from 22 Oct 2026; the newest SEC filing is from 04 Nov 2026. The press archive comes from the RSS feeds we follow and does not necessarily cover the latest event — the filings alongside do.
SEC filings
- Current report04 Nov 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report14 Sept 2026Other events · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report10 Sept 2026Material agreement · Regulation FD disclosure · Financial statements and exhibits
- Quarterly report06 Aug 2026
- Current report05 Aug 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Current report12 Jun 2026Shareholder vote
- Quarterly report08 May 2026
- Current report07 May 2026Results of operations · Financial statements and exhibits
- Proxy statement23 Apr 2026
- Current report03 Apr 2026Departure or appointment of officers · Financial statements and exhibits
Sources
- [1] Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 2025-12-31 · SEC / MercadoLibre, Inc. · 25 Feb 2026
- [2] Form 10-Q, quarter ended 2026-06-30 · SEC / MercadoLibre, Inc. · 06 Aug 2026
- [3] Form 8-K, results release (exhibit 99.1) · SEC / MercadoLibre, Inc. · 05 Aug 2026
Figures computed by olivLaw from SEC filings and closing prices; the qualitative analysis is AI-generated from cited sources. Not investment advice.